Contracts - Nylander, Marner, AM

[613Leafer]

Ehlers had 64 points last season, and signed for 7 years X 6M.
Pastrnak had 70 points last season, and signed for 6 years X 6.67M.

Why the heck would we give Nylander or Marner 7M? They're very comparable players to Ehlers. We should be looking at 6-8 years X 6-6.5M.

I also still think Buffalo/Edmonton went decently beyond market value, and probably cost us ~1.5-3M/season on Matthews deal. Before the Draisaitl/McDavid/Eichel contracts were signed, I think you could have easily argued ~7.5-8M longterm would have been very fair for Matthews. Look at what MacKinnon, Monahan, Barkov, Gaudreau, Tarasenko (who was older), etc get paid - 7.5M-8M would have been a solid but fair raise on top of those.

Now because of Edmonton/Buffalo, we're probably looking at ~9-10.5M for Matthews.

 

[Walshy7]

DAMN STRAIGHT.

The next person who says

12
8
8

Will get a boot.

Why is a one dimensional diva matthews comparable? Matthews is just as good a scorer but is doughty defensively compared with eichel. Matthews will also be captain of the biggest franchise in the nhl, not comparable to buffalo at all

 

[ToneDog]

Clear that we are not going to get Willie/Mitch signed under 6. I think Lou can convince them that you have to take a discount if you want to play with real good players.

Matthews - 10.25 x 8
Marner - 6.25 x 8
Nylander - 6.25 x 8

 

[rent free]

People are generous to think Matthews is signing for 10 million. With a rising cap that can be up to 80 million by the 2019 off season combined with the fact that he is half a tier behind mcdavid, I think he'd get 12 million. Maybe 13 million who knows.

For nylander I think he's gonna get 7 or 7.5 with the intention to play him at C.

For marner I think he's gonna get 6.75 or 7 million.

 

[PromisedLand]

The only thing I wanna say is F Chirelli for effing up the market with those ridiculous contracts

 

[shortfuze]

Because Marner is a local boy and loves it here I think he will sign for less then people think he will.

 

[LeafFever]

Because Marner is a local boy and loves it here I think he will sign for less then people think he will.

He won't just for that sake though. the problem is, why should he take less than Nylander?

 

[drewjenks]

Why is a one dimensional diva matthews comparable? Matthews is just as good a scorer but is doughty defensively compared with eichel. Matthews will also be captain of the biggest franchise in the nhl, not comparable to buffalo at all

So being captain of Toronto means your deserve more money than the captain of Buffalo....just because it's the biggest franchise in the NHL ?

I understand your other points.....but that one is useless.

Eichel took $10,000,000 knowing that he's signing with a bottom 5 team. He also knows that Buffalo has no one else to spend their cap on. They had to over pay because Eichel is their franchise & they had no leverage.

On the other hand, Matthews knows that the Leafs can be contenders for the next 8 years. He knows that Marner & Nylander need to get paid too. And all three of them know that their combined cap hits could become an immediate handicap on a competitive team.

These are two very different situations. Which is why I think Matthews, Marner & Nylander will each end up taking about $1,000,000 less than they would get on a bottom tier team with plenty of cap space.

So instead their max values of:

Matthews = $11,000,000 x 8 years
Marner = $7,000,000 x 7 years
Nylander = $7,000,000 x 7 years

I think they'll end up accepting:

Matthews = $10,000,000 x 8 years
Marner = $6,000,000 x 7 years
Nylander = $6,000,000 x 7 years

These types of discounts are common, but are usually only given to competitive teams.
For example:

Stamkos = $8,500,000 x 8 years
Ehlers = $6,000,000 x 7 years
Marchand = $6,125,000 x 8 years
Crosby = $8,700,000 x 12 (he signed in 2012 but would have got whatever he asked for)

 

[ImpartialNHLfan]

Marner and Nylander have done nothing to earn more than 6mil per. Majority of years will be RFA and their comparables are right around that number.

Matthews, while amazing, doesn’t have the same ppg numbers as McDavid and Eichel, but is similar to Draisaitl is style and play. I think Matthews is better than Draisaitl and on par/marginally better than Eichel.

I think seeing as we are a winning team, in a market where Matthews gets 200k cars for free. He’ll take a pay cut around 9.5mil per. Maybe I’m being optimistic, but we tend to overvalue players and we’ve done well handing out deals to players under our control. Zaitsev is arguable, but he’s had tough minutes with a partner he doesn’t mesh well with.

Marner - 6mil x 7 or 8
Nylander - 6mil x 7 or 8
Matthews 9.5mil x 8

This is what I see them making too. AM34 may be 10 or 10.5 max

 

[Gary Nylund]

So being captain of Toronto means your deserve more money than the captain of Buffalo....just because it's the biggest franchise in the NHL ?

I understand your other points.....but that one is useless.

Eichel took $10,000,000 knowing that he's signing with a bottom 5 team. He also knows that Buffalo has no one else to spend their cap on. They had to over pay because Eichel is their franchise & they had no leverage.

On the other hand, Matthews knows that the Leafs can be contenders for the next 8 years. He knows that Marner & Nylander need to get paid too. And all three of them know that their combined cap hits could become an immediate handicap on a competitive team.

These are two very different situations. Which is why I think Matthews, Marner & Nylander will each end up taking about $1,000,000 less than they would get on a bottom tier team with plenty of cap space.

So instead their max values of:

Matthews = $11,000,000 x 8 years
Marner = $7,000,000 x 7 years
Nylander = $7,000,000 x 7 years

I think they'll end up accepting:

Matthews = $10,000,000 x 8 years
Marner = $6,000,000 x 7 years
Nylander = $6,000,000 x 7 years

All this makes sense. However, in the end none of can possibly know what the players are thinking, what they'll settle for etc. and if they're not all on the same page it's gonna be tough. I'd guess 10 for Matthews and 6.5 for the other two but like I said, nobody can possibly predict with any degree of confidence.

 

[shortfuze]

He won't just for that sake though. the problem is, why should he take less than Nylander?

Like I stated. He’s from here and loves being here. Why does any player take a discount?

 

[Walshy7]

So being captain of Toronto means your deserve more money than the captain of Buffalo....just because it's the biggest franchise in the NHL ?

I understand your other points.....but that one is useless.

Eichel took $10,000,000 knowing that he's signing with a bottom 5 team. He also knows that Buffalo has no one else to spend their cap on. They had to over pay because Eichel is their franchise & they had no leverage.

On the other hand, Matthews knows that the Leafs can be contenders for the next 8 years. He knows that Marner & Nylander need to get paid too. And all three of them know that their combined cap hits could become an immediate handicap on a competitive team.

These are two very different situations. Which is why I think Matthews, Marner & Nylander will each end up taking about $1,000,000 less than they would get on a bottom tier team with plenty of cap space.

So instead their max values of:

Matthews = $11,000,000 x 8 years
Marner = $7,000,000 x 7 years
Nylander = $7,000,000 x 7 years

I think they'll end up accepting:

Matthews = $10,000,000 x 8 years
Marner = $6,000,000 x 7 years
Nylander = $6,000,000 x 7 years

captain of Toronto speaks every single day to well over 50 reporters buffalo maybe 20. Anyway doesn't matter if he gets less great but im not going to sit here hoping for it. I just hope we get him and he is more than happy with his contract if that's $12M so be it if its $10 fantastic. Im going to budget for $11.5 as I think out of the 3 he is in the middle and the idle is around $11.5

 

[Gary Nylund]

Like I stated. He’s from here and loves being here. Why does any player take a discount?

Player's have egos too and if Nylander gets 7, it would be pretty hard for Marner to swallow settling for 6. And if he did, hard to imagine he wouldn't feel some resentment towards Nylander which isn't good for the team at all.

 

[drewjenks]

All this makes sense. However, in the end none of can possibly know what the players are thinking, what they'll settle for etc. and if they're not all on the same page it's gonna be tough. I'd guess 10 for Matthews and 6.5 for the other two but like I said, nobody can possibly predict with any degree of confidence.

Very true....but I came to this forum to state my opinion & then defend it with my life.
Mostly because I hope that I'm right.

Also...they're all RFA's for another 5-7 years. They don't really have a choice unless they are willing to demand a trade & sit out until that happens. Unlikely their agent would recommend that route. The more likely scenario is a bridge deal...with a cheaper cap hit for 2-3 years.

Still not a horrible situation since they'll be RFA's again when they expire. There also not likely to improve so much that there next contract is massively higher than the current offer.

For example...I can't see:

Matthews with a $14,000,000 cap hit after a 2 year bridge deal (barring a 60G/120P season).
Nylander with a $10,000,000 cap hit after a 2 year bridge deal (barring a 40G/90P season).

 

[Walshy7]

Player's have egos too and if Nylander gets 7, it would be pretty hard for Marner to swallow settling for 6. And if he did, hard to imagine he wouldn't feel some resentment towards Nylander which isn't good for the team at all.

unfortunately the reverse is a likely scenario too, Nylander has to sign now but is "punished" by one of his seasons being 22 NHL games and therefore not really useful. Marner could and should have 3 seasons of 60 points to Willys 2. To me they are identical level of players and should be making exactly the same amount, id maybe pay willy a little more this year and tell marner that's his cap next year

edit: although willy can use that first season to say I played C and was on 48 point pace still in his first taste,

 

[I Believe]

Ehlers and Pastrnak are great comparables for Nylander/Marner.
Matthews prob 10.5-11. McDavid was coming off an Art Ross and Hart trophy, Matthews won't make that kind of dough.

 

[Muston Atthews]

Matthews is at least making Eichel money

 

[drewjenks]

People need to stop overrating Matthews. Hes not a 12 million AAV player and unlikely never will be -

I agree with this 100%.

Offensively - He's similar to a young Stamkos.
Defensively - He's similar to a young Tavares.

Hopefully that makes him better than both:
A 10 year average of 45G-45A-90P & solid defense would be amazing.

Stamkos signed for $8,500,000 as a UFA & I figured Matthews would get similar.
Until the McDavid, Draisaitl & Eichel deals crushed my soul. Now I see 3 scenarios:

1) $10,500,000 x 8 years (He pushes for the most Lou will give - respectable).
2) $10,000,000 x 8 years (He matches Eichel, knowing he's better - more respectable).
3) $9,500,000 x 8 years (He proves that he's here to win cups - most respectable)

To be honest, I'd pick the 3rd scenario for personal (and possibly financial) reasons:

• The fans/media are lenient when you take hometown discount.
• It would alleviate a lot of personal pressure during tough stretches.
• It would increase good will of from sponsors & help with negotiations.
• It would improve your chances of winning, which is enough on it's own...
• But if you give Toronto a cup, you'll have standing million $ job offers for life.
• Ex: Client Relations in Asset Management (golfing with rich clients/prospects).

Eight years is a big chunk of my life, so if I'm ever in the $100 million club:
my next decade of happiness will be more important than a few extra million...

...which would likely be left behind in a bank account for Trudeau anyways.

 

[Field of Dreams]

Depends on:
- how much the cap actually moves up next season,
- where it is projected to go the following,
- How much term is given (more term = lower AAV and vice versa),
- How well Nylander/Marner perform down the stretch and in the playoffs (they are not looking like they will hit 30 goals)

If Nylander/Marner signs tomorrow, they deserve 8% of the total cap using Ehlers as a precedent. With an 80m cap that is 6.4m dollars.

If Matthews signs tomorrow he deserves 13.14% of the cap using Eichel as a precedent. With an 80m cap that is 10.67m.

 

[Menzinger]

Ehlers had 64 points last season, and signed for 7 years X 6M.
Pastrnak had 70 points last season, and signed for 6 years X 6.67M.

Why the heck would we give Nylander or Marner 7M? They're very comparable players to Ehlers. We should be looking at 6-8 years X 6-6.5M.

I also still think Buffalo/Edmonton went decently beyond market value, and probably cost us ~1.5-3M/season on Matthews deal. Before the Draisaitl/McDavid/Eichel contracts were signed, I think you could have easily argued ~7.5-8M longterm would have been very fair for Matthews. Look at what MacKinnon, Monahan, Barkov, Gaudreau, Tarasenko (who was older), etc get paid - 7.5M-8M would have been a solid but fair raise on top of those.

Now because of Edmonton/Buffalo, we're probably looking at ~9-10.5M for Matthews.

Marner/Nylander likely will get closer to 7 if management wants to eat up 1-2 UFA years (Pasta becomes UFA as soon as his deal expires). And also their agents would be able to make the case they’re more proven than either Pasta or Elhers were when they signed their deals.

 

[Menzinger]

All this makes sense. However, in the end none of can possibly know what the players are thinking, what they'll settle for etc. and if they're not all on the same page it's gonna be tough. I'd guess 10 for Matthews and 6.5 for the other two but like I said, nobody can possibly predict with any degree of confidence.

Good point. We can try all we like to get into their heads, but none of us have any real insight here, just speculation.

I also think though that when it comes to this stuff folks think too much like fans and not how the players (and more importantly their agents) think. A fan might view taking a mil less than expected as “helping the team to win” but the agent might view the same situation as management trying to take advantage over the player.

 

[jaric1862]

Matthews-11.5x8
Nylander and Marner-6.5X7

 

[drewjenks]

captain of Toronto speaks every single day to well over 50 reporters buffalo maybe 20. Anyway doesn't matter if he gets less great but im not going to sit here hoping for it. I just hope we get him and he is more than happy with his contract if that's $12M so be it if its $10 fantastic. Im going to budget for $11.5 as I think out of the 3 he is in the middle and the idle is around $11.5

Agreed.

Toronto's captain has more media responsibility...but every team has the same cap ceiling.
You can't pay equivalent players more just because their in Toronto. We'd be screwed.

I'm not saying Matthews & Eichel are equivalent though...just making a separate point.

 

[drewjenks]

Player's have egos too and if Nylander gets 7, it would be pretty hard for Marner to swallow settling for 6. And if he did, hard to imagine he wouldn't feel some resentment towards Nylander which isn't good for the team at all.

- I can see Marner & Nylander signing for the same cap hit.
- And I can see Marner getting a higher cap hit.
- But I can't see Nylander getting a higher cap hit.

• Nylander isn't getting a Center's deal - he hasn't played Center yet.
• Marner's matched Nylander's P/G pace for 2 years - at a massive disadvantage.
• Nylander's always played with Matthews - Marner bounced b/w the 2nd & 4th line.
• If both seasons were replayed with their roles reversed - their P/G wouldn't be close.
  
• I think Marner & Matthews being separated is a nod to Marner, not Nylander
• Babcock thinks Marner can drive his own line better than Nylander ATM.
• Marner's a year younger & has an extra year to improve - unless he signs early.
• The cap should go up in that extra year - so will the average contract.

 

[Walshy7]

- I can see Marner & Nylander signing for the same cap hit.
- And I can see Marner getting a higher cap hit.
- But I can't see Nylander getting a higher cap hit.

• Nylander isn't getting a Center's deal - he hasn't played Center yet.
• Marner's matched Nylander's P/G pace for 2 years - at a massive disadvantage.
• Nylander's always played with Matthews - Marner bounced b/w the 2nd & 4th line.
• If both seasons were replayed with their roles reversed - their P/G wouldn't be close.
  
• I think Marner & Matthews being separated is a nod to Marner, not Nylander
• Babcock thinks Marner can drive his own line better than Nylander ATM.
• Marner's a year younger & has an extra year to improve - unless he signs early.
• The cap should go up in that extra year - so will the average contract.

There are counter arguments to all those points. For example -
playing with Matthews means much harder competition as you can see when zelenposts his qoc ratings, nylander has more defensive zone starts he in fact he has a higher defensive zone start % (or had I haven’t looked in a couple of games) than Matthews but likely that is an anomaly. jvr and bozak have 60% zone starts and that is where marner spent the majority of his time up until this point of the season. -
Nod to marner keeping them separate is laughable babs chose lines and went with them.
-Nylander has and can play c so will likely put that in negotiations which probably won’t help him. marner can not play c no matter how much fans wish it true if it wasn’t his best position on jnr it is not his best position in the nhl
- you use your own opinion as fact here “if roles were reversed points gap would be bigger” no proof what so ever because roles haven’t been reversed ever, maybe marner can’t handle tougher comp who knows, I think he can but you can’t know.


The end result is they are indentical level players and likely end very very similar on deals only reason they won’t be identical is of marner waits, there is risk in that though