Contracts - Nylander, Marner, AM

[BayStreetBully]

McDavids contract kicks in next season, pretty sure that has nothing to do with season!

You’re right, I said it for effect. But the point is the Leafs don’t and shouldn’t have to follow comparables made by rival idiot GMs.

 

[BayStreetBully]

Cap is rising, and McDavid/Eichel have ushered in a new era of $10m+ RFA contracts.

He's not signing a 1 yr contract here.

If McDavid wanted to be the highest paid player today, he would have taken 10.75m 1 yr deal. But McDavid wanted to be the or one if the highest paid players for the duration of his deal, and that's why he signed for $12.5m.

Matthews will likely be a top 5 player for the duration of his deal, so why would he take $9m and be the 20th highest paid player in a couple years, and likely the 50th highest paid player by the end of the deal?

How much sense does that make???

McDavid is not worth $12.5 million. Expectations were that the Oilers would contend this year and McDavid would reach even greater heights.

Following this season, where the Oilers bottomed out and McDavid hasn’t reached the next level, and if Buffalo didn’t follow suit, the Oilers could have signed him for $10 million. Leafs won’t overpay. They actually have a smart GM.

 

[Barilko14]

i will never get why people are so afraid of bridge contracts.
who cares. just bridge'em.

Because in 3 or 4 years they could be worth $5m each. If we have two players due that type of raise right on our best contention window, then one or 2 $5m players will have to go, or more likely one of Marner or Nylander.

Why do you think Tampa was all in on McDonagh and Karlsson?

Because they know their best window to win is before Kucherov next contract when he gets a ~$7m raise.

It's pointless for the Leafs do that, as we aren't in the same cap squeeze that TB was when they signed Kuch.

We can know exactly what our 3 best players will be making for the next 8 or 9 years in our best contention window.

 

[Barilko14]

McDavid is not worth $12.5 million. Expectations were that the Oilers would contend this year and McDavid would reach even greater heights.

Following this season, where the Oilers bottomed out and McDavid hasn’t reached the next level, and if Buffalo didn’t follow suit, the Oilers could have signed him for $10 million. Leafs won’t overpay. They actually have a smart GM.

McDavid is worth $12.5m. He's going to be the best player in the world for the next 8 years. Why would he sign for $10m and not even be the highest paid player today???

By your logic Babcock should have gotten $3.5m per year cause that's comparable to the other coaches.

McDavid is a generational talent, Kane and Toews broke the $10m barrier a couple of years ago, if you thought McDavid wasn' going to smash that, then you don't know very much about how player salaries work.

Also seems you don't really understand % of cap. A $10m contract 2 years ago, is not the same value as a $10m contract next year when you factor in the cap rising.

 

[Swedish Gretzky]

McDavid is worth $12.5m. He's going to be the best player in the world for the next 8 years. Why would he sign for $10m and not even be the highest paid player today???

By your logic Babcock should have gotten $3.5m per year cause that's comparable to the other coaches.

McDavid is a generational talent, Kane and Toews broke the $10m barrier a couple of years ago, if you thought McDavid wasn' going to smash that, then you don't know very much about how player salaries work.

Also seems you don't really understand % of cap. A $10m contract 2 years ago, is not the same value as a $10m contract next year when you factor in the cap rising.

He will be the best player in the world ever to play the game of hockey

 

[Gallagbi]

We can know exactly what our 3 best players will be making for the next 8 or 9 years in our best contention window.

The question is do we know what our best 3 players are capable of in the next 8-9 years?

Both contracts (bridge and long term) have risks. Edmonton though Eberle and RNH were key players when they overpaid them on long term deals. The Canes thought Staal was a stud out of his ELC and overpaid him for basically the rest of his Canes career because of it.

 

[Barilko14]

The question is do we know what our best 3 players are capable of in the next 8-9 years?

Both contracts (bridge and long term) have risks. Edmonton though Eberle and RNH were key players when they overpaid them on long term deals. The Canes thought Staal was a stud out of his ELC and overpaid him for basically the rest of his Canes career because of it.

The number will be between 6-7. Unless they full out regress I don't see them being overpaid in that range.

They are top line players today. Top line players make $6m.

Another way to look at it. The big 3 upcoming contracts mean we can't afford to keep JVR and Bozak.

Do we really want to have that type of effect on the team twice, with the 2nd coming right in our peak contending window?

The risk way outweighs the reward in this scenario, the only way it's worth it is if we can somehow sign JT or acquire a top dman, which I think is very unlikely.

 

[Daisy Jane]

McDavid is not worth $12.5 million. Expectations were that the Oilers would contend this year and McDavid would reach even greater heights.

Following this season, where the Oilers bottomed out and McDavid hasn’t reached the next level, and if Buffalo didn’t follow suit, the Oilers could have signed him for $10 million. Leafs won’t overpay. They actually have a smart GM.

why do you feel McDavid is not worth that?

 

[Gallagbi]

The number will be between 6-7. Unless they full out regress I don't see them being overpaid in that range.

They are top line players today. Top line players make $6m.

Another way to look at it. The big 3 upcoming contracts mean we can't afford to keep JVR and Bozak.

Do we really want to have that type of effect on the team twice, with the 2nd coming right in our peak contending window?

The risk way outweighs the reward in this scenario, the only way it's worth it is if we can somehow sign JT or acquire a top dman, which I think is very unlikely.

The thought on a bridge is you save a bit over the next ~3 years before paying more. Is it worth saving a mill a year on each of Marner/Nylander over that span to re-up in the 7-8 mill of the prove themselves worthy? It definitely could be.

Honestly, I'm not too fussed either way, I see both sides, I just don't think one way is clearly better for Marner or Nylander. Matthews you need to pickup for 8 years IMO.

 

[Barilko14]

The thought on a bridge is you save a bit over the next ~3 years before paying more. Is it worth saving a mill a year on each of Marner/Nylander over that span to re-up in the 7-8 mill of the prove themselves worthy? It definitely could be.

Honestly, I'm not too fussed either way, I see both sides, I just don't think one way is clearly better for Marner or Nylander. Matthews you need to pickup for 8 years IMO.

Mirtle wrote a piece on this recently using Nylander as example.

He's usually pretty realistic on his salary projections.

In his example he had the long term deal at $7.5 for 8 years.

Or, $5m for 3 and $9.5m for 8 years.

So we could be talking a $3-5m jump for both players, really not sure why we would go that route and risk blowing up the team in 3 years (when we likely at peak contender status).

Nylander has 7 PP points this year, but is on pace for the around the same production as last year. I really don't want to be waiting till the two of them are in their prime before locking them up long term.

 

[Gallagbi]

Mirtle wrote a piece on this recently using Nylander as example.

He's usually pretty realistic on his salary projections.

In his example he had the long term deal at $7.5 for 8 years.

Or, $5m for 3 or $9.5m for 8 years.

So we could be talking a $3-5m jump for both players, really not sure why we would go that route a risk blowing up the team in 3 years.

Nylander has 7 PP points this year, but is on pace for the around the same production as last year. I really don't want to be waiting till the two of them are in the prime before locking them up long term.

Because you know exactly what they are, and likely have a cup if they're worth 9.5 each (and being paid 5) over the next 3 years. You also have more flexibility albeit with less certainty in AAV on contracts since they hit UFA age later.

Theres also the potential you pay that 7.5/year and watch them stumble to exceed the level they're playing at now. Maybe it's injuries, maybe it's opportunity like we saw this year, maybe it's just bad luck, but it is a possibility.


I have trouble with Nylander at 7.5 given the Ehlers and Pasta deals, I see him under 7 fwiw.

 

[Barilko14]

Because you know exactly what they are, and likely have a cup if they're worth 9.5 each (and being paid 5) over the next 3 years. You also have more flexibility albeit with less certainty in AAV on contracts since they hit UFA age later.

Theres also the potential you pay that 7.5/year and watch them stumble to exceed the level they're playing at now. Maybe it's injuries, maybe it's opportunity like we saw this year, maybe it's just bad luck, but it is a possibility.


I have trouble with Nylander at 7.5 given the Ehlers and Pasta deals, I see him under 7 fwiw.

You have a cup, and then have to trade one of them or a couple of other players the following year when their combined cap hit jumps approx. $8 or $9m.

We don't have the immediate need to save that ~$2m on each player, we have lots of cap space with our UFAs moving on this summer, it's far riskier to bridge the two of them and have to pay them when they are at their peaks.

 

[Leaf Lander]

well is nylander setting the world on fire without mathews?

is nylander a complete player with a flawless game at both ends of the ice?

is he a top 20 point getter in the nhl?
top 50?
top 75?
how much has his draft comparables sign for?
is he the best player on his team?
2nd best? 3rd? 4th 5th? 6th?


Marner floated for 20 games this yr
does he play a complete game on the ice?
is he s top 20 point getter in the nhl
top 50?
how much has his draft comparables sign for?
is he the best player on his team?
2nd best? 3rd? 4th 5th? 6th?


all of this can lower what they get

 

[Barilko14]

well is nylander setting the world on fire without mathews?

is nylander a complete player with a flawless game at both ends of the ice?

is he a top 20 point getter in the nhl?
top 50?
top 75?
how much has his draft comparables sign for?
is he the best player on his team?
2nd best? 3rd? 4th 5th? 6th?


Marner floated for 20 games this yr
does he play a complete game on the ice?
is he s top 20 point getter in the nhl
top 50?
how much has his draft comparables sign for?
is he the best player on his team?
2nd best? 3rd? 4th 5th? 6th?


all of this can lower what they get

How many star players coming out of their ELC are flawless at both ends of the ice?

 

[Liminality]

Mirtle wrote a piece on this recently using Nylander as example.

He's usually pretty realistic on his salary projections.

In his example he had the long term deal at $7.5 for 8 years.

Or, $5m for 3 and $9.5m for 8 years.

So we could be talking a $3-5m jump for both players, really not sure why we would go that route and risk blowing up the team in 3 years (when we likely at peak contender status).

Nylander has 7 PP points this year, but is on pace for the around the same production as last year. I really don't want to be waiting till the two of them are in their prime before locking them up long term.

Agreed. I'd probably try to bite the bullet early and give him the 7-7.5m for 8 years. Although if management has some sort of plan for using the extra cap space in the next couple of years, I could definitely see them doing the bridge deal.

 

[Jozay]

Mirtle wrote a piece on this recently using Nylander as example.

He's usually pretty realistic on his salary projections.

In his example he had the long term deal at $7.5 for 8 years.

Or, $5m for 3 and $9.5m for 8 years.

So we could be talking a $3-5m jump for both players, really not sure why we would go that route and risk blowing up the team in 3 years (when we likely at peak contender status).

Nylander has 7 PP points this year, but is on pace for the around the same production as last year. I really don't want to be waiting till the two of them are in their prime before locking them up long term.

I just cant see how Nylander can demand that when Pastranak, who is the better player between the two, gets 6.6 and Ehlers whos right around Nylanders level gets 6, even with thr cap going up.

Give Nylander his 6-6.5 over 7 or 8 years and call it a day.

 

[Barilko14]

I just cant see how Nylander can demand that when Pastranak, who is the better player between the two, gets 6.6 and Ehlers whos right around Nylanders level gets 6, even with thr cap going up.

Give Nylander his 6-6.5 over 7 or 8 years and call it a day.

Pasta signed for 6 years, and Ehlers had to make less than Scheifele (6.125).

 

[Jozay]

Pasta signed for 6 years, and Ehlers had to make less than Scheifele (6.125).

So then sign him for 6 years, doesnt matter to me.

Regardless of why Ehlers signed for what he signed, he's still a direct comparable for Nylander. Theres no reason for Nylander to be getting paid 7.5 million a year.

 

[Barilko14]

So then sign him for 6 years, doesnt matter to me.

Regardless of why Ehlers signed for what he signed, he's still a direct comparable for Nylander. Theres no reason for Nylander to be getting paid 7.5 million a year.

IMO he gets $7m, does 500k over 8 yrs make or break the Leafs cap structure?

 

[Leaf Lander]

Maybe I an wrong but I got the feeling some of your opinions helped pave the way for phaneuf to get that vastly overpaid contract that he is still riding

 

[Drew311]

Matthews is going to get McDavid money for sure; certainly $12 million per year over 8 years. Why should he settle for $10 or $10.5 million?
Nylander gets at least $6 million per with Marner probably getting $7 million.

I think Matthews gets the Eichel contract. He hasn't accomplished what McDavid has in the league and doesn't deserve as much. I also have a lot of confidence in Lou/Shanny not to just give Matthews a blank cheque. Edmonton has set an example how paying 1 or 2 players a shitload of money impacts the rest of the team. If Matthews is really on board with being part of a winning team he'll do the right thing and take 80M.

Matthews - 10/80M
Nylander - 6.75/40.5M
Marner - 6.75/40.5M

 

[BayStreetBully]

why do you feel McDavid is not worth that?

He’s a restricted free agent, coming off an entry level contract, and only 21 years old. Edmonton paid him like he was an unrestricted free agent.

I believe Edmonton was desperate to keep him for 8 years at all costs, and had to overpay through the nose to do it. It’s not the most desirable location. But once Edmonton offered $100 million over 8 years, no 20 year old in the world could refuse that. And then Buffalo followed suit, thus warping the entire market. Or so it seemed...

 

[TheNip]

AM will likely fall between McDavid and Eichel if he signs this summer.

Although he could wait until midseason like Kane/Toews, who signed December 9th of final ELC year, for more leverage. They are all repped by Pat Brisson of CAA.

My guess AM comes in at 8/88M

Marner/Nylander are much tougher. Nylander will be 22 and Marner 21 in two months, both are trending flat, and neither are strong two way players - not that they couldn't be. But do the Leafs commit over 6M over 8yrs to two offensive wingers?

I've always had a sneaking suspicion Babs is not sold on Marner and, to a lessor degree, Nylander.

Darren Farris bombed Marner's ECL though so maybe we can sign him this summer for max term at < = 6M while Nylander takes a bridge.

 

[Discordia]

Zero doubt Nylander is not on this team next year. Babcock doesn't trust him at all.

Nylander is also incredibly frustrated at the lack of trust being shown him by the coach.

He'll request a trade and go on to have a fruitful career in another organization.

 

[Skin Tape Session]

He will be the best player in the world ever to play the game of hockey

Not if he stays where he is. That team cursed yo