Connor Bedard or Jack Hughes?

[GOilers88]

Nah, not McDavid.

He already won that one this summer.

 

[Matty Sundin]

Poll and response here is kinda surprising like people just wanna be different. Hughes is a fantastic player and might be a steal of a contract but Bedard’s potential is just someone you don’t pass up on if you have the chance. This isn’t a Lafreniere type number one pick. He has potential to be the star of the 2020s.

 

[Herby]

I normally would prefer the guy with the 60-70 goal shot, but it’s hard to ignore the contract Hughes has through his prime. Bedard will probably have one good year on an ELC and 2 star ones, but then it’s going to be well north of $10m.

 

[biturbo19]

That Hughes contract is an enticing element to weigh here. Yes, Bedard on an ELC is likely to be the better "value" for a few years. But if he's as good as hoped and produces even just similarly to Hughes 40G-100pt range...Bedard is going to be getting like $15M+ easy, maybe that bar even pushes up toward $20M the way things are going with new contracts for elite young players. Meanwhile, Hughes will still be on an $8M absolute bargain deal for a few more years.


Combine that with the "certainty" vs "mystery box" element and it's definitely a tough choice. I'd actually lean toward just taking Hughes as the "known entity" who is already one of the best young Centers in the league. I'm not sure how much more than a 100Pt player Bedard is going to be. There's only so much realistic headroom above that and it's not even set in stone that Hughes is finished developing and rounding out his overall game even further.

 

[Xirik]

Sounds like Bedard has to have a have a Mathews like 1st season or its a disappointment. With that Chicago team that's going to be a hard thing to do.

 

[dirtydanglez]

Sounds like Bedard has to have a have a Mathews like 1st season or its a disappointment. With that Chicago team that's going to be a hard thing to do.

lol what? even if he gets near a point per game in his rookie season that's a win

 

[Xirik]

lol what? even if he gets near a point per game in his rookie season that's a win

Mathews PPG was 0.84 in his rookie season?

 

[dirtydanglez]

Mathews PPG was 0.84 in his rookie season?

yea i missed the 1st year part. my bad.

 

[Oneiro]

Something about Bedard’s game I find very unconvincing, like I don’t think a lot of his scoring is going to happen the same way in the NHL. But he clearly has done everything he’s supposed to.

This is a tough one.

 

[TBF1972]

I think people are saying it’ll be disappointing if around 100 points is his peak. I personally think he has the potential to score 130

jack hughes is 22 years old. i don't think we have seen his peak.

 

[JaegerDice]

For my team, the Blackhawks, it’s obviously Bedard. His age and contract status both fit the team’s timeline, as their entire plan was basically built around rigging…er, winning the lottery.

I think a lot of other teams would be right to bet on the sure thing with Hughes though.

I actually expect Bedard to have a similar NHL development trajectory to Hughes. Bracing myself for the reactionary ‘bust’ talk after year one.

 

[blundluntman]

jack hughes is 22 years old. i don't think we have seen his peak.

I was referring to Bedard. Hughes can peak higher, I agree. But Bedard is projected to be closer to McDavid than he is to Hughes

 

[TBF1972]

For my team, the Blackhawks, it’s obviously Bedard. His age and contract status both fit the team’s timeline, as their entire plan was basically built around rigging…er, winning the lottery.

I think a lot of other teams would be right to bet on the sure thing with Hughes though.

I actually expect Bedard to have a similar NHL development trajectory to Hughes. Bracing myself for the reactionary ‘bust’ talk after year one.

you just hope for a cheap long term contract after the elc.

 

[Regal]

I still think we can at this point put Hughes above both Nash and Seguin of those seasons trading or taking Crosby/Bedard over Nash and Seguin at that point would make alot more sense than Jack Hughes right now for Bedard


except Hughes is already a 100 point player. in year 4 then how many more points are you expecting Bedard to exceed Jack Hughes?

Why is the assumption that because Hughes put up 99 points this past year that he’ll stay there? We see players have fluctuations all the time. Going back to the Seguin example, even if we don’t see them as perfect comps (Seguin scored better relative to the league but it was a mediocre time for top scorers even with low league scoring), we’re still talking about a top 5 scorer at 21/22, and someone who finished 6th, 2nd and 5th in points per game for three consecutive season from 21/22 to 23/24, and then was never top 10 in scoring or points per game again.

Some players peak early, and some aren’t consistent year to year. It could very well be that Hughes is a 100 point player for the next 3-4 seasons, but then falls down to a 90 point player. Or maybe he has a couple 80 points seasons in the next 5-6 along with 100 point years. One of the biggest differences between McDavid and Crosby types is that they’re more consistent and usually better longer. So maybe if Bedard hits 110 in year 2, and Hughes hits 100 it’s not that different. But if Bedard is more consistently at that 110 level, and/or does it for longer (say he’s that player for a decade after his 2nd year while Hughes stays at his for 5-6), then that’s where the big difference in value is.

I think another comparison to think about would be MacKinnon and McDavid. Imagine McDavid was in the 2018 draft and you had the choice between the two of them. A 22 year old MacKinnon just had 97 points in 74 games and was the Hart runner up. In the 5 years since then he’s averaged 112 points per 82 games. If McDavid had kept the same scoring paces he had in his first 5 years (despite the league increasing in scoring) he’d be slightly behind MacKinnon at 110 points per 82. Certainly close, and an argument to be made that MacKinnon would be the better option. Especially since he was on a great deal whereas McDavid got paid after his ELC. But now you either have a 28 year old MacKinnon making bank as well, or a 24 year old McDavid about to rip the league a new one in two of the next three years. And likely to keep aging better than MacKinnon long term. Part of the appeal of a Bedard is the long term outlook for a franchise rather than just who will be better in the next several seasons.

 

[dirtydanglez]

I was referring to Bedard. Hughes can peak higher, I agree. But Bedard is projected to be closer to McDavid than he is to Hughes

and thats just skill. add in bedards dedication to physical fitness too. imagine what hughes would do if he was built like mackinnon or crosby

 

[Xirik]

and thats just skill. add in bedards dedication to physical fitness too. imagine what hughes would do if he was built like mackinnon or crosby

Hughes is dedicated to fitness as well. It's just that most of his gains got eaten by Covid and injury. It also seem that every summer he greatly improves a weakness in his game. Last year it was his shot, this year it looks like his Faceoff % will be higher then 35% which hopefully means Haula won't have to babysit him.

 

[Panthaz89]

I doubt anyone who picks Hughes has watched Bedard enough.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

Why is the assumption that because Hughes put up 99 points this past year that he’ll stay there? We see players have fluctuations all the time. Going back to the Seguin example, even if we don’t see them as perfect comps (Seguin scored better relative to the league but it was a mediocre time for top scorers even with low league scoring), we’re still talking about a top 5 scorer at 21/22, and someone who finished 6th, 2nd and 5th in points per game for three consecutive season from 21/22 to 23/24, and then was never top 10 in scoring or points per game again.

Some players peak early, and some aren’t consistent year to year. It could very well be that Hughes is a 100 point player for the next 3-4 seasons, but then falls down to a 90 point player. Or maybe he has a couple 80 points seasons in the next 5-6 along with 100 point years. One of the biggest differences between McDavid and Crosby types is that they’re more consistent and usually better longer. So maybe if Bedard hits 110 in year 2, and Hughes hits 100 it’s not that different. But if Bedard is more consistently at that 110 level, and/or does it for longer (say he’s that player for a decade after his 2nd year while Hughes stays at his for 5-6), then that’s where the big difference in value is.

I think another comparison to think about would be MacKinnon and McDavid. Imagine McDavid was in the 2018 draft and you had the choice between the two of them. A 22 year old MacKinnon just had 97 points in 74 games and was the Hart runner up. In the 5 years since then he’s averaged 112 points per 82 games. If McDavid had kept the same scoring paces he had in his first 5 years (despite the league increasing in scoring) he’d be slightly behind MacKinnon at 110 points per 82. Certainly close, and an argument to be made that MacKinnon would be the better option. Especially since he was on a great deal whereas McDavid got paid after his ELC. But now you either have a 28 year old MacKinnon making bank as well, or a 24 year old McDavid about to rip the league a new one in two of the next three years. And likely to keep aging better than MacKinnon long term. Part of the appeal of a Bedard is the long term outlook for a franchise rather than just who will be better in the next several seasons.

Are you assuming that we already seen the best of Hughes at 22 years old?

and yeah I prob wouldnt have traded MacKinnon who just put up 97 points for a gamble in McDavid either. if they had the extra cap they saved on MacKinnon for McDavid maybe they wouldn't have won that cup after all. in the end I think the better move is Hughes who already is a 100 point elite player in the NHL with a very team friendly contract which will help the overall team more.

I dont think there any many players Id pass on trading for Bedard but Hughes isnt one of them I would.

 

[GrumpyKoala]

Oh there no way in hell bedard isrnt a perennial 120pts player, right?

 

[Connor McConnor]

If Bedard doesn’t put up 90 as a rookie most people here will be surprised.. that should tell you something

 

[Mr Bojanglez]

As a Devils fan... I don't want to give up Jack. I can understand how fans of other teams, that do not have Jack, wouldn't have the same attachment.

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

Bedard. If he is Jack Hughes, He'll be a disappointment.

that seems ridiculous lol

 

[Garbageyuk]

Devils fans just seething lmao

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

I normally would prefer the guy with the 60-70 goal shot, but it’s hard to ignore the contract Hughes has through his prime. Bedard will probably have one good year on an ELC and 2 star ones, but then it’s going to be well north of $10m.

it might even be around 12-14+ by then!

 

[centipede2233]

Bedard has never had fast food. I choose him