Player Discussion Cody Ceci | Part III

[Micklebot]

Someone above was talking about even Karlsson needing some to develop and that we need to give Ceci a little bit more time. I agree, this comparison doesn't hold any water what so ever.

You're right, it doesn't, but nobody was comparing the quality of players, just pointing out that even great players can take time. Bringing up that Karlsson is further along than Ceci is pointless and serves no purpose. Bringing up that a guy on track for a HOF career was still very prone to miscues on the other hand does add to the conversation; it points out that at this age, these guys are not fully developed players, and can still grow. If Ceci's offense develops as much in the next 3 years as Karlsson's defense has over the last 3 years, we have a heck of a player.

 

[ottawah]

Deployment is one thing but you can just see with how he plays that he doesn't have much of an offensive instinct. He is devoid of generating any kind of sustained offensive pressure, he just doesn't have the smarts for it.

This isn't due to being deployed in a more defensive role as he has no issues with rushing the puck out and getting it into the offensive blue line. When he gets there he just has no clue what to do next.

For a guy with such a lack of offensive instincts then, he puts up a lot of points compared to toher D in the league.

Given how many D men there are in the league, he's proven he's in the top 30% offensively. You are pretty much saying 75% of the leagues D men do not have any offensive ability, in which case you cannot genuinely expect to replace him with anyone better.

 

[Anidalife]

You're right, it doesn't, but nobody was comparing the quality of players, just pointing out that even great players can take time. Bringing up that Karlsson is further along than Ceci is pointless and serves no purpose. Bringing up that a guy on track for a HOF career was still very prone to miscues on the other hand does add to the conversation; it points out that at this age, these guys are not fully developed players, and can still grow. If Ceci's offense develops as much in the next 3 years as Karlsson's defense has over the last 3 years, we have a heck of a player.

Which is a ridiculous expectation. How often do non-offensively gifted players improve to decent or even good offensive players?

Also not completely related but I know for forwards, generally their peak production year is age 24. For D it's more consistent from 24-30, but still around 25-26 is usually their peak too. Ceci is 24 for the next season.

For a guy with such a lack of offensive instincts then, he puts up a lot of points compared to toher D in the league.

Given how many D men there are in the league, he's proven he's in the top 30% offensively. You are pretty much saying 75% of the leagues D men do not have any offensive ability, in which case you cannot genuinely expect to replace him with anyone better.

Let's not post literal lies when discussing things.

Ceci played 75 games this season. His best season in terms of points.
2015-2016, D with over 60 games, Ceci ranks 56/152, or about 37%.
2015-2016, D with over 70 games, Ceci ranks 51/106, or about 48%.

Ceci played 79 games this season.
2016-2017, D with over 60 games, Ceci ranks 94/150, or about 63%.
2016-2017, D with over 70 games, Ceci ranks 80/114, or about 70%.

So no, I don't believe Ceci is ever in the top30% offensively. In fact this year he was in the bottom 3rd of the league.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

For a guy with such a lack of offensive instincts then, he puts up a lot of points compared to toher D in the league.

Given how many D men there are in the league, he's proven he's in the top 30% offensively. You are pretty much saying 75% of the leagues D men do not have any offensive ability, in which case you cannot genuinely expect to replace him with anyone better.

Do you just stat watch and compare? Or do you actually watch Ceci?

I never understood the notion that since player X is in the spectrum of 'acceptable' relative to other players in the same position across the league that they are suddenly deemed good. I've watched Ceci since his inception to the league. He hasn't progressed as much as someone you'd expect for having 4 full seasons of NHL experience along with almost a third of a season in the playoffs. Still makes the same mistakes, still slow in decision making, still has little offensive instincts, mediocre defensively.

 

[BatherSeason]

Do you just stat watch and compare? Or do you actually watch Ceci?

I never understood the notion that since player X is in the spectrum of 'acceptable' relative to other players in the same position across the league that they are suddenly deemed good. I've watched Ceci since his inception to the league. He hasn't progressed as much as someone you'd expect for having 4 full seasons of NHL experience along with almost a third of a season in the playoffs. Still makes the same mistakes, still slow in decision making, still has little offensive instincts, mediocre defensively.

Not even sure that he stat watches properly either...

Out of 150 d-men who have played over 60 games, Ceci clocks in at 107 in PPG. Looks a lot closer to the bottom 30% and definitely not the top 30%

We have waited 4 seasons now for this "growth" everyone speaks of. The only growth we have seen is his ice-time and that seems to be pretty much the only argument used in his defense, other than bogus offensive numbers of course. He play may have actually regressed throughout the four years.

 

[swiftwin]

Have you guys even been watching the games? He went from being a Karlsson-wannabe, skating around like a headless chicken a couple seasons ago to superseding Methot as our primary shutdown guy this season. And you guys are bringing up points per game? Sigh...

No other player on the team has changed as dramatically in style and role from last season to this.

 

[swiftwin]

Do you just stat watch and compare? Or do you actually watch Ceci?

I never understood the notion that since player X is in the spectrum of 'acceptable' relative to other players in the same position across the league that they are suddenly deemed good. I've watched Ceci since his inception to the league. He hasn't progressed as much as someone you'd expect for having 4 full seasons of NHL experience along with almost a third of a season in the playoffs. Still makes the same mistakes, still slow in decision making, still has little offensive instincts, mediocre defensively.

No he doesn't. He used to pinch, run around like an idiot and was always caught out of position. How often did that happen this season? Never.

 

[BankStreetParade]

Which is a ridiculous expectation. How often do non-offensively gifted players improve to decent or even good offensive players?

Brent Burns had more than 30 points twice in his first 7 years in the league and he often played at forward during the early parts of his career.
Victor Hedman didn't score more than 26 points until his 5th year in the league.
Matt Niskanen didn't score 40+ points until his 7th year in the league.
Mark Giordano scored 40+ points once in his first 6 years in the league.
Dmitry Orlov just had his first 30+ point season after 4 years in the league.
Nick Holden had a 30+ point year after 4 years in the league.
Andrej Sekera had one 40+ point season in his first 7 years in the league.
Brent Seabrook needed 6 years to post a 40+ point season.

It's not often as simple as other players make it seem to just score 30+ points. Nevermind 40+ which would have put you top 25 in scoring for defensemen this year. The points will come for Ceci. He was nearly a PPG player in his last 2 years in junior. He's 23 and just finished his third full season in the league. Give him a little time to develop.

 

[Anidalife]

Have you guys even been watching the games? He went from being a Karlsson-wannabe, skating around like a headless chicken a couple seasons ago to superseding Methot as our primary shutdown guy this season. And you guys are bringing up points per game? Sigh...

No other player on the team has changed as dramatically in style and role from last season to this.

Ya, let's read before being all condescending OK? Nobody brought up points per game until someone defending Ceci wrongly said he's in the top 30% offensively. If you want to shake your head then shake it at yourself and that poster.

Also, if your point is that he's the primary shutdown guy with lack of points, then I'd say he's not good enough to be top4. Even if he does the perfect job at shutting down, which he doesn't, it's still not good enough. Number 5 D? Great, better than great. Number 3 D? Shut down is just not enough.

Also, even before this year, as someone who wasn't shutting down anyone as you said, his offense was about average among all defenders. Maybe even below average.

So no, even if all your points stand about him being put in shutdown roles and tougher situations, it doesn't matter in the end.

 

[BatherSeason]

Brent Burns had more than 30 points twice in his first 7 years in the league and he often played at forward during the early parts of his career.
Victor Hedman didn't score more than 26 points until his 5th year in the league.
Matt Niskanen didn't score 40+ points until his 7th year in the league.
Mark Giordano scored 40+ points once in his first 6 years in the league.
Dmitry Orlov just had his first 30+ point season after 4 years in the league.
Nick Holden had a 30+ point year after 4 years in the league.
Andrej Sekera had one 40+ point season in his first 7 years in the league.
Brent Seabrook needed 6 years to post a 40+ point season.

It's not often as simple as other players make it seem to just score 30+ points. Nevermind 40+ which would have put you top 25 in scoring for defensemen this year. The points will come for Ceci. He was nearly a PPG player in his last 2 years in junior. He's 23 and just finished his third full season in the league. Give him a little time to develop.

Give him time? You have to realize that you are dealing with a depreciating asset, someone who has already been here for 4 years and has not improved in any facet of his game other than "getting more ice time".

If GMs in this league will give you something for him, then you need to cash in. Not sure why this org feels the need to "wait it out" until there is zero value left in players they draft (ie Lazar, Cowen, Lee). If the rumors are out there that a Cody Ceci can fetch us a legitimate top 6 forward, then that trade needs to be made.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

No he doesn't. He used to pinch, run around like an idiot and was always caught out of position. How often did that happen this season? Never.

If he never does any of the things you mentioned then he should be a top pairing defenceman which he isn't

 

[Anidalife]

Brent Burns had more than 30 points twice in his first 7 years in the league and he often played at forward during the early parts of his career.
Victor Hedman didn't score more than 26 points until his 5th year in the league.
Matt Niskanen didn't score 40+ points until his 7th year in the league.
Mark Giordano scored 40+ points once in his first 6 years in the league.
Dmitry Orlov just had his first 30+ point season after 4 years in the league.
Nick Holden had a 30+ point year after 4 years in the league.
Andrej Sekera had one 40+ point season in his first 7 years in the league.
Brent Seabrook needed 6 years to post a 40+ point season.

It's not often as simple as other players make it seem to just score 30+ points. Nevermind 40+ which would have put you top 25 in scoring for defensemen this year. The points will come for Ceci. He was nearly a PPG player in his last 2 years in junior. He's 23 and just finished his third full season in the league. Give him a little time to develop.

So.. Thanks for proving my point? Not very often at all if these are the examples you came up with to argue against me out of the hundreds of players in that timespan.

That's before we dive into the examples you gave.
Brent Burns: Not sure how to rate this one, a bit special case. So sure, he did get better. Good one.
Victor Hedman: He was one of the recent ones I had in mind, definitely got a lot better, but also had the potential from the start.
Matt Niskanen: 35 points in his second full season. Averages around 35 with a career year of 46. Nice of you to focus on his career year instead of the norm. Doesn't work here.
Mark giordano: had 2 Half seasons of 15 and 19, scored 30 in his first full season, 43 in his Second full season. Nowhere did he appear bad offensively. Doesn't work here.
Dmitry Orlov: 29 points in his First full season, 33 in his Second full season. Nowhere did he appear bad offensively. Doesn't work here.
Nick Holden: Looks good, 3rd full season is his best total. But also had 25 points in 54 games in his first season. I wouldn't say that's a bad offensive potential to start off with.
Andrej Sekera: Again, using career year instead of the norm. I'll say he does seem to get better offensively, so even if your argument is wrong I'll give you this one.
Brent Seabrook: Gets above 30 points in almost every season, starting with his first. Always been a good offensive player, does not apply to this.

So that's maybe 3 of those that kind of work. Just further reinforces my point. It happens extremely rarely.

 

[Sensinitis]

Saying that Ceci hasn't improved is idiotic at best.

 

[Masked]

Give him time? You have to realize that you are dealing with a depreciating asset, someone who has already been here for 4 years and has not improved in any facet of his game other than "getting more ice time".

If GMs in this league will give you something for him, then you need to cash in. Not sure why this org feels the need to "wait it out" until there is zero value left in players they draft (ie Lazar, Cowen, Lee). If the rumors are out there that a Cody Ceci can fetch us a legitimate top 6 forward, then that trade needs to be made.

Yeah, a 23 year old right handed dman who played top 2 minutes for team that was a goal away from the Cup finals is a depreciating asset. Do you even watch hockey, bro?

 

[Micklebot]

Which is a ridiculous expectation. How often do non-offensively gifted players improve to decent or even good offensive players?

Also not completely related but I know for forwards, generally their peak production year is age 24. For D it's more consistent from 24-30, but still around 25-26 is usually their peak too. Ceci is 24 for the next season.




Let's not post literal lies when discussing things.

Ceci played 75 games this season. His best season in terms of points.
2015-2016, D with over 60 games, Ceci ranks 56/152, or about 37%.
2015-2016, D with over 70 games, Ceci ranks 51/106, or about 48%.

Ceci played 79 games this season.
2016-2017, D with over 60 games, Ceci ranks 94/150, or about 63%.
2016-2017, D with over 70 games, Ceci ranks 80/114, or about 70%.

So no, I don't believe Ceci is ever in the top30% offensively. In fact this year he was in the bottom 3rd of the league.

Well, Chara was certainly not offensively gifted and developed into a very good offensive player. Having said that, a big part of production is opportunity. Put guys in offensive roles, they produce more. Put guys in defensive roles, they produce less. Ceci isn`t getting 1st unit PP mins, so it would be quite unique to see him producing very high up the list. Looking at 5v5 pts per 60 though, he`s typically produced in the the top half up until this season. Heck, looking at his 3 years before this season combined, he`s 33rd out of 118 in 5v5 pts/60 among D with 3000+ mins, and has 1 less 5v5 pt than Shattenkirk in 4 less games over that span

The interesting thing is that while some have written him off as not being offensively gifted, it was his offensive gifts (skating, shot, and passing) that had him highly touted in his draft year. His first two years, he was very efficient in gaining the OZ, and showed a good feel for when to join the rush, or pinch for offensive chances in the OZ. This year, his change in roles likely meant being asked to avoid any of the riskier plays, and he's certainly had troubles with the puck on his stick, and didn`t join the rush nearly as much, but to say he never showed any offensive talent is just not accurate.

 

[BatherSeason]

Yeah, a 23 year old right handed dman who played top 2 minutes for team that was a goal away from the Cup finals is a depreciating asset. Do you even watch hockey, bro?

Bro?? lol. Love that this topic seems to get the "pro-Ceci" crowd so heated and angry...

Yes I watch the games, yes I watched Kessel and Malkin dominate every shift they played against Ceci/Phaneuf.

Yes I watched Tanner Glass have his way with Ceci.

Did you?

Also, still waiting on anyone to mention any positive technical aspect of Ceci's game instead of just pointing to his ice time and deployment.

 

[Smash88]

Bro?? lol. Love that this topic seems to get the "pro-Ceci" crowd so heated and angry...

Yes I watch the games, yes I watched Kessel and Malkin dominate every shift they played against Ceci/Phaneuf.

Yes I watched Tanner Glass have his way with Ceci.

Did you?

Also, still waiting on anyone to mention any positive technical aspect of Ceci's game instead of just pointing to his ice time and deployment.

I'm fairly sure Kessel and Malkin make almost every defenceman they face look pretty bad. That's why they are who they are.

And no, Tanner Glass didn't have his way with Ceci, not at all.

Ceci stats aren't sexy, which is why no one can point out "positive technical aspects" of his game.

Same reason why the defensive defenceman never win the Norris.

Doesn't mean he is a bad player.

 

[BatherSeason]

I'm fairly sure Kessel and Malkin make almost every defenceman they face look pretty bad. That's why they are who they are.

And no, Tanner Glass didn't have his way with Ceci, not at all.

Ceci stats aren't sexy, which is why no one can point out "positive technical aspects" of his game.

Same reason why the defensive defenceman never win the Norris.

Doesn't mean he is a bad player.

Does he win battles?
Does he skate well?
Does he block shots?
Is he positionally sound?
Does he make a good first pass?
Does he have a good shot?
Does he hit hard?
Is he a good communicator on the ice?

These are some examples of qualities NHL defenseman possess. We can't just keep saying that he is good because he plays a lot.

 

[ottawah]

Not even sure that he stat watches properly either...

Out of 150 d-men who have played over 60 games, Ceci clocks in at 107 in PPG. Looks a lot closer to the bottom 30% and definitely not the top 30%

We have waited 4 seasons now for this "growth" everyone speaks of. The only growth we have seen is his ice-time and that seems to be pretty much the only argument used in his defense, other than bogus offensive numbers of course. He play may have actually regressed throughout the four years.

So explain why last year when he was not a shut down D man he managed to be 12th at RHD in points per 60 (5x5) and 4th in all D man in goals per 60 (5x5)? And those numbers were not an outlier. In his first full year he was top 30 in 5x5 per 60 for RHD.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...nse&minutes=1000&disp=1&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

You do not put up arguably elite level numbers without having some offensive skill. When his QOC went up this year and he started taking on the role of a shutdown D, his numbers certainly went down. As anyones would (exactly why Doughtys numbers have generally fell through his career).

His numbers are a factor of deployment, not skill. You do not put up those kind of numbers without some semblance of skill. The fact that he plays behind Karlsson and hence gets minimal PP time, offensive starts and play in the best offensive situations has to be taken into account. When it is, his numbers show what he is obviously capable of.

 

[Anidalife]

Well, Chara was certainly not offensively gifted and developed into a very good offensive player. Having said that, a big part of production is opportunity. Put guys in offensive roles, they produce more. Put guys in defensive roles, they produce less. Ceci isn`t getting 1st unit PP mins, so it would be quite unique to see him producing very high up the list. Looking at 5v5 pts per 60 though, he`s typically produced in the the top half up until this season. Heck, looking at his 3 years before this season combined, he`s 33rd out of 118 in 5v5 pts/60 among D with 3000+ mins, and has 1 less 5v5 pt than Shattenkirk in 4 less games over that span

The interesting thing is that while some have written him off as not being offensively gifted, it was his offensive gifts (skating, shot, and passing) that had him highly touted in his draft year. His first two years, he was very efficient in gaining the OZ, and showed a good feel for when to join the rush, or pinch for offensive chances in the OZ. This year, his change in roles likely meant being asked to avoid any of the riskier plays, and he's certainly had troubles with the puck on his stick, and didn`t join the rush nearly as much, but to say he never showed any offensive talent is just not accurate.

2014-2017 5on5 Defencemen with 3000+ minutes from stats.hockeyanalysis.com:
Points: 52/115
p/60: 53/115

Not the 33rd like you said. I'm not sure which one of us is wrong.

Very average still. If players were divided evenly, for a team that's right on the bubble of playoffs, he'd be an average 2nd pairing offensively on that average team.

And yes, you can name examples like Chara, but that's exactly the point. It's very rare and the general trend is what you see is what you get for the non-offensive players.

 

[Micklebot]

2014-2017 5on5 Defencemen with 3000+ minutes from stats.hockeyanalysis.com:
Points: 52/115
p/60: 53/115

Very average still. If players were divided evenly, for a team that's right on the bubble of playoffs, he'd be an average 2nd pairing offensively on that average team.

And yes, you can name examples like Chara, but that's exactly the point. It's very rare and the general trend is what you see is what you get for the non-offensive players.

This year would seem to be an outlier in terms of his production, would you not agree? The fact that it coincides with a drastic change in usage might have something to do with it.

 

[JungleBeat]

No he doesn't. He used to pinch, run around like an idiot and was always caught out of position. How often did that happen this season? Never.

Which of these do you consider Ceci?

Offensive dman
Puck moving dman
Two-way dman
Defensive dman

Pick one.

 

[Smash88]

Does he win battles? Yep, more than he loses.

Does he skate well? I think so.

Does he block shots? He was second on the team behind Karlsson, so yeah.

Is he positionally sound? Usually.

Does he make a good first pass? Not all-star level, but it is average for the NHL.

Does he have a good shot? When he takes it, it's as good as most NHL defencemen

Does he hit hard? Not really, but isn't weak to play against.

Is he a good communicator on the ice? He's 23, that will come.

These are some examples of qualities NHL defenseman possess. We can't just keep saying that he is good because he plays a lot.

I honestly think you need to take the blinders off, he is NOWHERE near as bad as you make him out to be.

 

[Anidalife]

This year would seem to be an outlier in terms of his production, would you not agree? The fact that it coincides with a drastic change in usage might have something to do with it.

I would not agree. There has been 3 full seasons of stats only. Right now it looks he's about a 20point D offensively. I am not as down on his 17 points just as I'm not as up on his 26 points. He looks about the same offensively. A bit worse this year but it happens.

Also, even if it's true, that's been the problem all year. He's not good enough to be number 3 on this team. If he (or Phaneuf, my problem is not necessarily with Ceci, just whoever's playing on the second pairing) was replaced with someone just a bit better so that the pairing can be almost even against the other team, we would be in the finals most likely. He'd be an amazing number 5 currently.

 

[MaxTheLimit]

Also, even if it's true, that's been the problem all year. He's not good enough to be number 3 on this team. If he (or Phaneuf, my problem is not necessarily with Ceci, just whoever's playing on the second pairing) was replaced with someone just a bit better so that the pairing can be almost even against the other team, we would be in the finals most likely. He'd be an amazing number 5 currently.

Pretty much where I stand. I think it'd be a bit disingenuous to say that Ceci hasn't improved at all. He's improved small parts in his game. The problem is that he hasn't improved as much as people had hoped. He still makes poor decisions. He is still not able to read a play fast enough to have the timing to make a pass or hold onto the puck. He still gets caught puck watching/chasing leading to him being out of position.

However, he has gotten better. It looks bad at times because his role has continued to rise. He's being deployed like a shutdown guy in his own end against tough competition. He also plays a lot while protecting a small lead.

He isn't right for this. He doesn't have the breakout ability to be effective in this role. He can be effective at holding the blue line, clogging up the neutral zone, keeping an opponent to the outside the odd shift, and he's getting a bit better with his transition game.

That's not enough to get away with the role he's been put into. I bet Ceci would be pretty good in limited minutes against tactically chosen opponents in a mostly balanced offensive/defensive zone starts. He's a #3RD. I think he'd be an decent one. Bottom pairing. Nothing wrong with that. A good bottom pairing is a nice asset to have.

It's possible that he blooms a bit later, and can fill the role of a top4 guy in his 26-30 years. If not, he needs to start being deployed where he can succeed. He'll never thrive in a situation he's not cut out for.

That's how I see it at least. I could be missing some good and bad points. But I have been trying to keep an eye on him. But I'm no pro scout or anything.