Player Discussion Cody Ceci Part II

[JungleBeat]

Sure he can. The fewer mins you have the more specialized they can be(either sheltered or tough), the more you get the closer they get to average in terms of toughness.

We saw that during the first round when Ceci-Phaneuf were matched up against Marchand & Co. but not during the series with the Rangers. Karlsson was eating up all our tough minutes and was thriving. Ceci and Phaneuf weren't buried this series at all.

 

[bornNraised Sens]

is Karlsson's easier match ups, as some suggest, a function of opposing coach looking to get favourable matches vs other pairings or a function of Boucher looking for his matchup? Could look at QoC and other measures on home vs away, but would probably be hard to get complete picture still.

 

[Anidalife]

I'm pretty sure Ceci and Karlsson are getting around similar competition when averaged out over the season. I remember checking QoC, and someone else also went through the shifts of Karlsson, so I don't know where this narrative that Ceci goes against the best competition came from.

As for the last game, I don't blame Ceci for either of those goals. First wasn't his man and second was an unlucky fumble by MacArthur. Where he was having trouble was making that first pass. He made amazing plays along the boards and stole the puck with ease. Then he'd just throw it somewhere. Sometimes it went out, sometimes it was a giveaway, too rarely was it a good pass to a teammate.

 

[playasRus]

Chabot-Ceci would be an interesting pair if Chabot lives up to expectations. Ceci can simplify his game and not have to drive the play at all.

 

[Micklebot]

I'm pretty sure Ceci and Karlsson are getting around similar competition when averaged out over the season. I remember checking QoC, and someone else also went through the shifts of Karlsson, so I don't know where this narrative that Ceci goes against the best competition came from.

As for the last game, I don't blame Ceci for either of those goals. First wasn't his man and second was an unlucky fumble by MacArthur. Where he was having trouble was making that first pass. He made amazing plays along the boards and stole the puck with ease. Then he'd just throw it somewhere. Sometimes it went out, sometimes it was a giveaway, too rarely was it a good pass to a teammate.

wrt his deployment, it was definately more consistantly tough deployment in the regular season. Karlsson typically only got strict line matching against speed opponents (which is probably why Ceci didn't get the strict line matching against the rangers).

As to your point about ceci's game, I completely agree. I thought he was very good against the boards, did a great job at defending, but that first pass was not clicking for him at all. Heck, even the times he did make a good pass to the forwards (which really only seemed to happened in the first and a bit of the second period) the forwards would cough it up too. I remember one shift in the first where he battled hard, turned over the puck and got it up to the Smith (I think) who promptly turned it over and the rangers sent it back to Ceci's corner, where he quickly won another puck battle, and got the puck up to the forward again, who promptly turned it over once again.

I'd call that a mediocre game by Ceci. It was a bit of a bend don't break game. Lots of room for improvement, but there were also lots of good things he did out there.

 

[Knave]

I agree he's bending but not breaking. The two goals last night were on the forward not picking up the middle of the ice and taking coverage. This was leading to time and space for the forward to beat Ceci. If an Ottawa forward is harassing on the backcheck then there's no way those 2 goals happen.

The failed clearing attempts are bad but didn't result in any goals.

 

[Micklebot]

We saw that during the first round when Ceci-Phaneuf were matched up against Marchand & Co. but not during the series with the Rangers. Karlsson was eating up all our tough minutes and was thriving. Ceci and Phaneuf weren't buried this series at all.

You're right, Ceci got fairly even deployment, and his CF% went from 44% against Boston and 50% against NYR. Rangers are a deep team that linematching isn't as effective against as they don't really have a standout line like Boston does, they're also a speed team which typically is a bad thing for Phaneuf, ceci's partner. Boston on the other hand was a team hand picked for linematching, so it made far more sense there.

Truthfully, NYR were a bad matchup for the Ceci/Phaneuf pair, as they aren't the best at dealing with speed (particuarly Phaneuf). I think they allowed a fair number of odd man rushes.

 

[Micklebot]

Chabot-Ceci would be an interesting pair if Chabot lives up to expectations. Ceci can simplify his game and not have to drive the play at all.

This is my hope. Ceci could be Chabot's 'Methot' only he's actually got quite a bit more offensive skills.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

This is my hope. Ceci could be Chabot's 'Methot' only he's actually got quite a bit more offensive skills.

If we can make a pair that doesn't have karlsson on it effective at breaking out this team is more set than people think

 

[JD1]

If we can make a pair that doesn't have karlsson on it effective at breaking out this team is more set than people think

hmmmm. ...I've been thinking that since the last wj tourney. Could be epic. Phaneuf plays bottom pair RD with Boro on LD or Harpur. Phaneuf on the PK and on 2nd PP. things would be looking very good.

And I think Ceci's offensive numbers would pop into the 30 range with better starts and a partner that can help drive the puck up the ice

 

[Anidalife]

wrt his deployment, it was definately more consistantly tough deployment in the regular season. Karlsson typically only got strict line matching against speed opponents (which is probably why Ceci didn't get the strict line matching against the rangers).

From QoC, which is not completely accurate, the top 4 on the sens all have almost the same deployment. IIRC, Ceci had very slightly harder competition than Karlsson. I realize Karlsson doesn't always go against the top line strictly, that's why I said averaged out over a season, they're similar. I agree that in the Boston series, Ceci definitely had the harder matchup.

My criticism of Ceci was from this whole year. I try not to single him out for doing poorly in 1 or 2 games in a playoff series, so that's why I have no problems with giving up those breakaways last game. The breakouts were a problem basically every game though, and I see that you noticed it too.

 

[Micklebot]

From QoC, which is not completely accurate, the top 4 on the sens all have almost the same deployment. IIRC, Ceci had very slightly harder competition than Karlsson. I realize Karlsson doesn't always go against the top line strictly, that's why I said averaged out over a season, they're similar. I agree that in the Boston series, Ceci definitely had the harder matchup.

My criticism of Ceci was from this whole year. I try not to single him out for doing poorly in 1 or 2 games in a playoff series, so that's why I have no problems with giving up those breakaways last game. The breakouts were a problem basically every game though, and I see that you noticed it too.

I'm not suggesting that Karlsson was by any means sheltered, but Ceci has tougher deployment by ever QOC metric;

Player Name | TOI QOC | xGF QOC | GF% QOC | GF/60 QOC | CF% QOC | CF/60 QOC | DZ start % | ZS ratio
Karlsson | 29.42 | 50.16 | 50.4 | 2.28 | 50.4 | 2.28 | 30.7 | 52.9
Ceci | 29.54 | 50.32 | 50.5 | 2.32 | 50.5 | 2.32 | 35 | 46.61

That's not typical to see one defender have 'tougher' opposition by every metric. Ceci was Boucher's go to guy in terms of matching the opposition, though Karlsson got the elite speedster assignments like OV and McDavid.

The thing is, it's not that Karlsson didn't face the tough matchups, it's just that Ceci doesn't get the soft ones. Karlsson gets sent out to take advantage of tired lines, bottom pairs and suspect defensive forwards. Ceci doesn't.

Ceci also got a significantly higher percentage of his icetime with guys like Kelly, Pyatt, Pageau and Neil. Guys that typically aren't out there to generate offense. Ceci's deployment wasn't condusive to producing shiny underlying numbers by any stretch. His job was to keep chances against to the outside while Karlsson caught his breath.

KARLSSON, ERIK | % TOI with
PAGEAU, JEAN-GABRIEL | 0.28
PYATT, TOM | 0.27
KELLY, CHRIS | 0.18
NEIL, CHRIS | 0.08

Ceci | % TOI with
PYATT, TOM | 0.3
PAGEAU, JEAN-GABRIEL | 0.3
KELLY, CHRIS | 0.21
NEIL, CHRIS | 0.09

 

[JungleBeat]

Ceci's most common forward that he played with this postseason is Pageau with 76 minutes then Turris and Stone.

Pageau CF% with Ceci = 44%
Pageau CF% without Ceci = 52%

Ouch.

Regarding the QoC metrics that Micklebot noted it's fair to say that's there's not much of a difference. They're pretty similar and 0.5-1% huge. As Anidalife said it's basically the same.

 

[JD1]

Ceci's most common forward that he played with this postseason is Pageau with 76 minutes then Turris and Stone.

Pageau CF% with Ceci = 44%
Pageau CF% without Ceci = 52%

Ouch.

Regarding the QoC metrics that Micklebot noted it's fair to say that's there's not much of a difference. They're pretty similar and 0.5-1% huge. As Anidalife said it's basically the same.

I assume you're just looking for a beat down stat here to continue the anti ceci agenda?

Pageau has had a balance of shut down shifts and offensive shifts. Guess when he was paired with Ceci?

 

[JungleBeat]

I assume you're just looking for a beat down stat here to continue the anti ceci agenda?

Pageau has had a balance of shut down shifts and offensive shifts. Guess when he was paired with Ceci?

Bobby Ryan doesn't play shutdown minutes but had a 44 CF% with Ceci and 56CF% without him. Really, it's most players on the team that see a drop in their possession with Ceci.

 

[Knave]

Talk about valid sample size.

 

[Billy Bridges]

Stats aren't needed. Ceci just isn't smart enough to be good.

 

[JungleBeat]

Talk about valid sample size.

I mean, it's been going on throughout his career. Not that surprising that the trend is continuing into the postseason.

 

[Anidalife]

Talk about valid sample size.

So are you saying if the same trend can be seen during the whole season, you'd accept it? If yes, I'm sure someone can provide the stats. If no, then your problem is not with sample size.

 

[Knave]

So are you saying if the same trend can be seen during the whole season, you'd accept it? If yes, I'm sure someone can provide the stats. If no, then your problem is not with sample size.

Nope.

 

[Anidalife]

Nope.

So you're only here to troll. At least I got it early so I don't have to reply again.

 

[Knave]

So you're only here to troll. At least I got it early so I don't have to reply again.

You're trying to quantify how good a player is now using data 6 months old.

But yeah - I'm the troll.

 

[Micklebot]

Bobby Ryan doesn't play shutdown minutes but had a 44 CF% with Ceci and 56CF% without him. Really, it's most players on the team that see a drop in their possession with Ceci.

Hmm... maybe it has to do with how they are deployed together vs appart.

Ryan with Ceci; 44% OZ ratio. Ryan away from Ceci 54% OZ ratio.

Given how strictly Ceci got linematched, particularly on home ice, in the reg season, it's quite likely that Ryan faced far stiffer competition when with Ceci too.

That's the problem with WOWY stats (aside from the sample size issues when using a single year). They lack contextual information.

Also, pretty much everybody away Ceci is primarily playing with Karlsson, who just happens to be the best Dman in the league.


Edit: Worth noting, Pierre McGuire was asked about Ceci's performance in the playoffs, said he was good. Also mentioned that many of the alledged breakdowns were actually the center missing his assignment as the sens play a center lock system, so the guy you may have thought was Ceci's man was actually the centers.

 

[BatherSeason]

Phaneuf is hard to play with. If he's not available for a tape to tape pass, you're in trouble. I've been saying forever Ceci will regress under Dion. I've never understood all the love Dion got this year. He doesn't use his size, he has no mobility, and he makes horrible decisions with the puck. For Ceci it's like being on a island most nights.

This team would be best going with the following:

EK65-Method
Ceci - Claesson
Harpur - Weidman

I know it wouldn't happen unless Dion got hurt, but it's a truth.

First it was the org's fault for rushing him, then it was Cowen's fault, then we blamed it on Weircoch. Now Phaneuf??? Funny how the finger NEVER gets pointed at Ceci.

 

[Viletho]

First it was the org's fault for rushing him, then it was Cowen's fault, then we blamed it on Weircoch. Now Phaneuf??? Funny how the finger NEVER gets pointed at Ceci.

How does it never pointed out at Ceci? Like 1/3 of your post are about pointing out how you think that Ceci suck. And not only you. He get point out quite a lot around here.