Confirmed Signing with Link: [CGY] F Jonathan Huberdeau signs extension with Flames (8 years, $10.5M AAV)

[ref19]

Last year / This year

CF% - 55.39% / 55.19%
SF% - 55.11% / 55.43%
GF% - 56.52% / 73.33%
xG% - 53.44% / 58.77%
SCF% - 54.77% / 54.94%
HDCF% - 51.23% / 63.10%
HDGF% - 63.89% / 76.92%
oiSH% - 10.12% / 7.19%

Very similar numbers too last year - just in a much different way. He's giving up far less against- but as a result creating less as well - and his teammates are not finishing at the same rate.

Last year / This year
xGF/60 - 3.21 (highest of his career) / 2.7
xGA/60 - 2.8 (highest of his career) / 1.89 (lowest of his career)

Good argument for analytics not having much relevance.

 

[nammerus]

Honestly he has been, most Flames fans just aren’t in the mood to point out positives things about the team currently. 10 points over his last 12 games, and over a point per game in his last 5. All the signs have been there of him finally starting to fit in and establish some chemistry, with still plenty more room for growth. He’s also still one of our top forwards in most defensive metrics as well while the points have started to come.

Man. PPG over a 5 game sample? Crazy shit.

 

[Haatley]

Man. PPG over a 5 game sample? Crazy shit.

People were jumping all over talking about his contract after similar sample sizes.

 

[RapidKnight]

Good argument for analytics not having much relevance.

No. The problem here is he clumped offensive and defensive analytics together. Analytical he has struggled offensively.

 

[Play]

I’ll bump this when he finishes the post season being above PPG the whole playoffs.

 

[Nostradumbass]

I’ll bump this when he finishes the post season being above PPG the whole playoffs.

5 points in 4 games isn't overly impressive.

 

[Yepthatsme]

Man. PPG over a 5 game sample? Crazy shit.

I mean, it’s now 8 points with his 8th game still underway and 12 in his last 14. Like how the other posters so eloquently pointed out, he still hasn’t fully looked like himself yet either. His linemates are Lindholm, a guy who is 16% shooting percentage in his time with Calgary is shooting 10% 5v5, and Toffoli who is shooting at 7% 5v5. He’s been improving pretty steadily.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Good argument for analytics not having much relevance.

Fancy stats are much more tailored to something like baseball which is incredibly episodic in its events. Each at-bat (even each pitch) and ball put into play are unique data points that have a clearly driven start and stop. Something like hockey... a poorly timed shift change would result in no ding to a guy's fancy stats, but could potentially be damning to everyone else on the ice.

Most analytical hockey stats have a point solely in large data points where you eventually will get a material amount of similar situations where you can gauge what an individual's impact is. But honestly, it requires a lot of data to have any relevance.

Most of the people who quote these analytical stats don't understand slightly what they're saying and therefore take absurd conclusions from the data and extrapolate them. A guy on the Wings board was absolutely notorious for doing this with Andreas Athanasiou... like if we just gave him 20 minutes a night, he'd keep up his high scoring rate and my god, we're just misusing him!

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

this thread is hilarious, especially the first few pages

that 10.5 million contract....that hasn't even kicked in...will be one of the worst in the league in a couple years

 

[HighLifeMan]

Good argument for analytics not having much relevance.

Yet pulling up his hockeydb page and making assertions of his play based solely off his counting stats like 95% of the posters in here are doing is a better way to evaluate the player? These statistics reinforce and illustrate a player that has been tasked to and is adapting to becoming a much more effective 200 foot player. He trails only Bergeron and Marchand in xGA/60. That's Darryl's MO. This is not shocking news. Now you can argue all day whether or not Huberdeau playing this way contributes more or less to winning long term (and if it's an outdated approach) - but that's how Sutter want's and expects his team and stars to play.

 

[gritdash60]

Last years Panthers team was what i would consider some kind of experiment of if you can win with full offence all game, every game mode. Didn't they win like 8-7 and 7-6 in a row or something? That's why Huby got some points he wouldn't have otherwise. But is he a bad player, that CGY shouldn't have signed? Nah he will find his groove and start producing the points, you dont get that amount of points by accident no matter where you play or whoever you play with.

Edit: what im trying to say is, he is one of the best wingers in the world. Englando isnt my first language.

 

[MBH]

Fancy stats are much more tailored to something like baseball which is incredibly episodic in its events. Each at-bat (even each pitch) and ball put into play are unique data points that have a clearly driven start and stop. Something like hockey... a poorly timed shift change would result in no ding to a guy's fancy stats, but could potentially be damning to everyone else on the ice.

Most analytical hockey stats have a point solely in large data points where you eventually will get a material amount of similar situations where you can gauge what an individual's impact is. But honestly, it requires a lot of data to have any relevance.

Most of the people who quote these analytical stats don't understand slightly what they're saying and therefore take absurd conclusions from the data and extrapolate them. A guy on the Wings board was absolutely notorious for doing this with Andreas Athanasiou... like if we just gave him 20 minutes a night, he'd keep up his high scoring rate and my god, we're just misusing him!

Hmmm
Checks notes:

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

I'm an Oilers fan so I'm not trying to cover for him, I just have respect for his abilities as a player. I think this site could use more of that, and less of the attitude you seem to have.

Wait what?Show respect for incredibly talented players, the best in the entire world who play the game everybody here loves to play/watch???? Blasphemy!!!!!!!!

 

[nbwingsfan]

Man. PPG over a 5 game sample? Crazy shit.

I mean people here are going crazy over a 26 game sample instead of the like 250 games prior

 

[MikeyMike01]

Good argument for analytics not having much relevance.

What these dorks don’t understand is: if the models don’t match reality… the model needs work! It isn’t reality that’s wrong

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Hmmm
Checks notes:
View attachment 620958

Hmm.. the very next year, 24 in 46 while going -45 playing 26 seconds less a game. Also, what did he do in literally every other opportunity at every other time of his career?

He had one season where he touched 0.7 ppg (18-19). And if you look at it, that was the Wings dead cat bounce when they were playing guys like Jake Chelios, Taro Hirose, and Ryan Kuffner. Hell, Danny DeKeyser was averaging 25 mins a night in that stretch.

And alos, the two years above the one you choose to point out. He had 13:28 ATOI in 16-17 (with ostensibly a better Detroit team) and got 29 points. Then, the next year, he bumped up TWO MINUTES A NIGHT. Clearly, his stats must have improved wildly? Oh, he scored one less goal and six more assists.

You make the very point you're trying to refute with this data. If he was so good and so misused... Why are Edmonton, LA, and Chicago all misusing him? I mean, he's getting 16:07 again and playing with players on the same level as he had in 18-19 (because he was on the second line with guys like Nielsen and not the big gun line with Larkin or Bertuzzi or Mantha... except for the PP, which he didn't score much on that year)

He's a good, one-dimensional player who kind of has a hard cap on his ability because he never developed any tool beyond that one skill. He caps at around that TOI because he hurts you defenisvely even as he helps you offensively. That is precisely the point. Analytics tell you one thing and the eye test/hockey logic tell you another.

 

[yeaher]

Hmm.. the very next year, 24 in 46 while going -45 playing 26 seconds less a game. Also, what did he do in literally every other opportunity at every other time of his career?

He had one season where he touched 0.7 ppg (18-19). And if you look at it, that was the Wings dead cat bounce when they were playing guys like Jake Chelios, Taro Hirose, and Ryan Kuffner. Hell, Danny DeKeyser was averaging 25 mins a night in that stretch.

And alos, the two years above the one you choose to point out. He had 13:28 ATOI in 16-17 (with ostensibly a better Detroit team) and got 29 points. Then, the next year, he bumped up TWO MINUTES A NIGHT. Clearly, his stats must have improved wildly? Oh, he scored one less goal and six more assists.

You make the very point you're trying to refute with this data. If he was so good and so misused... Why are Edmonton, LA, and Chicago all misusing him? I mean, he's getting 16:07 again and playing with players on the same level as he had in 18-19 (because he was on the second line with guys like Nielsen and not the big gun line with Larkin or Bertuzzi or Mantha... except for the PP, which he didn't score much on that year)

He's a good, one-dimensional player who kind of has a hard cap on his ability because he never developed any tool beyond that one skill. He caps at around that TOI because he hurts you defenisvely even as he helps you offensively. That is precisely the point. Analytics tell you one thing and the eye test/hockey logic tell you another.

It's interesting, one wonders why have a coach; if the one you have doesn't coach your players.

 

[BRobMint]

I honestly don’t care about how good his defensive metics are. We need scoring, and badly

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I honestly don’t care about how good his defensive metics are. We need scoring, and badly

Yeah you don't pay a left winger 10.5M hoping that they post good defensive numbers. You want offense.

 

[BRobMint]

Yeah you don't pay a left winger 10.5M hoping that they post good defensive numbers. You want offense.

He has 9 points in his last 9 games which is a good sign. But the team in general lacks consistent finish which is hurting them big time

 

[ijuka]

Good argument for analytics not having much relevance.

Player analytics indeed are pretty questionable in my eyes. Team analytics are what matters. Player analytics only have value if they improve team analytics. However, if you put 20 60% xGF% players together on one team, chances are that just some of them will have 60% xGF% and some will have much lower.

It's tough to prove just how much a player actually affects a team's analytics,. At least the current methods are more or less dubious to me.

 

[Voight]

Fancy stats are much more tailored to something like baseball which is incredibly episodic in its events. Each at-bat (even each pitch) and ball put into play are unique data points that have a clearly driven start and stop. Something like hockey... a poorly timed shift change would result in no ding to a guy's fancy stats, but could potentially be damning to everyone else on the ice.

Most analytical hockey stats have a point solely in large data points where you eventually will get a material amount of similar situations where you can gauge what an individual's impact is. But honestly, it requires a lot of data to have any relevance.

Most of the people who quote these analytical stats don't understand slightly what they're saying and therefore take absurd conclusions from the data and extrapolate them. A guy on the Wings board was absolutely notorious for doing this with Andreas Athanasiou... like if we just gave him 20 minutes a night, he'd keep up his high scoring rate and my god, we're just misusing him!

Fantastic post.

I liken the topic to a quote from the JFK movie -

The FBI says they can prove it through physics in a nuclear laboratory. Of course they can prove it. Theoretical physics can also prove that an elephant can hang off a cliff with its tail tied to a daisy! But use your eyes, your common sense.

 

[lomiller1]

This contract will look bad a lot sooner than people think. Calgary will be regretting it by the end of year 1 IMO

Wow. That post won't age well.

I don't think the Flames will regret it at all....as I believe Huberdeau will age well.

But they will certainly not regret it after year 1. Huberdeau is going to have a huge year in Calgary.

Sutter got every ounce out of Johnny and Tkachuk, I think Huberdeau is about to have a big big season with Lindholm (and Mangi, Toffoli or someone else)

Year 1 of the contract hasn't even started yet and regret is already settling in...

 

[DFF]

Huberdeau retired

You are seeing an imposter

 

[FlyguyOX]