Speculation: Caps Hockey General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) -- 2017-18 Regular Season Edition

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CapitalsCupReality

It’s Go Time!!
Feb 27, 2002
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If Grubauer is in net tonight against the Preds, then Holtby gets the net against the Devils. So that probably means stupid Trotz is gonna go with Holtby as his playoff starter!:rolleyes:

I might lose it if that happens. Things will get really bad around here as each bad Holtby GA will feel like a kick to the groin.

I can’t see Trotz making that mistake now.....please....
 

Langway

In den Wolken
Jul 7, 2006
32,394
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I would bet money this is their playoff lineup if they play the Blue Jackets, except for Boyd/Beagle. Trotz mentioned needing to be heavier if they played a bigger opponent. It's quintessential playoff Trotz... allow the other team's identity to dictate your lineup and strategy and hope for the best.
Exactly. Punt on being great or having a dictating type identity and just hope to be a smidge better than the opponent on their terms.

The bottom six may not be very good at forechecking no matter how they put it together but this is the least dangerous and slowest mix possible. Not that Vrana & Gersich are the answer necessarily but there's very little reason to keep shoehorning DSP on a scoring-line aside from balance and that's out the window with that fourth line. Mostly, it's a missed opportunity for Vrana & Gersich to see up close just how hard one has to work to beat Nashville. I said it was essentially a meaningless game, and it is for the Caps, but a Nashville win locks up the division for them. They ought to be motivated and instead this seems like a lineup for Trotz best suited to perhaps steal a game when stealing one isn't really the point.

So, tldr: loosen up, Barry. I know it's Nashville but...c'mon.
 

g00n

Retired Global Mod
Nov 22, 2007
30,619
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Why can't we just analyze a player's game regardless of his citizenship?

nm, replied before getting to cali's warning.

E4K pm me if you want to talk any more on the topic. I'm not really invested in it other than making sure we're dealing with facts rather than assumptions.
 

Sam Spade

Registered User
May 4, 2009
27,484
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Maryland
Ovechkin gonna play and show everyone another wound or bruise after poor showing in the playoffs. Trotz doesnt have courage to sit his ass for last two games. Also, I see it this way: they've given the last game to Holtby on purpose. If he gives up less than 2, they go with him as number one. And that's awful.

What is this nonsense?

Ovechkin is a f***ing monster for this team, this city and the game of hockey.
If he wants to play to win a Rocket, or because he loves the game, because he knows some kid is coming to his first game tonight to see him, or because the NHL is honoring him tonight he has earned the right to god damn well play.

This fanbase sometimes boggles my mind.
 
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Sam Spade

Registered User
May 4, 2009
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Alain Vigneault is a good back-up plan if he gets the boot.

Trotz won't be fired he simply won't be re-signed. Personally I want Suter next.

And as pissed as I am when I see some of these lineups Trotz is putting together at practice, I'm not getting mad until game one when Holtby starts and Vrana/Gersich/Jerabek are all sitting. Then I will simply flip off the game and watch something else.
 

artilector

Registered User
Jan 11, 2006
8,351
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Exactly. Punt on being great or having a dictating type identity and just hope to be a smidge better than the opponent on their terms.

The bottom six may not be very good at forechecking no matter how they put it together but this is the least dangerous and slowest mix possible. Not that Vrana & Gersich are the answer necessarily but there's very little reason to keep shoehorning DSP on a scoring-line aside from balance and that's out the window with that fourth line. Mostly, it's a missed opportunity for Vrana & Gersich to see up close just how hard one has to work to beat Nashville. I said it was essentially a meaningless game, and it is for the Caps, but a Nashville win locks up the division for them. They ought to be motivated and instead this seems like a lineup for Trotz best suited to perhaps steal a game when stealing one isn't really the point.

So, tldr: loosen up, Barry. I know it's Nashville but...c'mon.

Yeah, all of this. If a line/team can't dictate play, it's a dead-end.

Minimizing the probability of a spectacular failure (in a particular game), e.g. small skilled young guys getting smashed, is NOT the same thing as maximizing the probability of (ultimate) success.

The corresponding motto is -- "let's make sure we at least fail honorably"... which in reality becomes just "let's fail honorably" (since we're not gonna try anything promising -- for fear of spectacular failure).

There's nothing new in this, ofc. Tbh, I have a feeling that the majority of NHL coaches are no better in this respect.
 
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hb12xchamps

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Dec 23, 2011
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Is it wrong that this doesn't make me happy? Caps have looked pretty damn good with him out of the lineup.

No.

I hope they don't rush him back and he's playing around 85-90% of what he still has left in the tank. Stephenson could easily handle that role in a playoff series if need be.

Gersich-Stephenson-DSP would be a good combo of speed, forechecking and physical play.
 
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RandyHolt

Keep truckin'
Nov 3, 2006
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Paging @twabby hasn't it been determined that faceoff wins barely or don't correlate with moar goals? If true, likely because the faceoff guys largely do just that / don't provide much offense.

I am fine with your ace faceoff guy out late with 20 seconds left and a DZone faceoff. But it circles back to old school thinking, playing reactive vs proactive. Foot on the neck, vs foot on the brakes and basically concede we are not going to score. I believe its called #turtle

Barry loves him some Beagle and he has his benefits, but is also at the root of old school dirty hockey. The game is evolving based on rule changes, heavily. The grinders cannot clutch and grab their way to evening up the playing field with faster players. Speed and skill kills it now. If he wants to feature Beagle, he needs to mark him on an opposition C and give him a shutdown shadow role, at least when he has last change. You just cannot blindly roll 4 lines in the playoffs. Use the home last line change dammit, and have a plan to dismember the opposition. Heavily target the oppositions turnover happy pizza delivery boy. Be tactical down to the last possible advantage to exploit.

I am really hope Barry breaks away from his comfort zone of reactive coaching, depending on vets, slowly grinding away to glorious victories. You think after 20 years of playoff failures, it's time to exit the comfort zone. They say you cannot teach an old dog new tricks but I call bunk. I taught my hound dog how to sit up at age 10. Food always wins.
 
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The Instigator

Tom Wilson - NHL All Star
Feb 6, 2010
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seems a bit odd ... He's described as having an UBI but then says, "...I think I can start to skate Monday..."
Lots of factors, upper body is such a wide range. Could be a pull that hurts while taking strides, could be something he’s worried about falling on, etc.
 

Ridley Simon

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We'll see. Grubauer is #1 if he carries this team against NSH through all 3 periods. Don see it as a likely scenario. They always have big problems with Preds no matter home or away. Un the other hand, Devils not that tough of opponent. If Holtby somehow drops the ball in that game, they should desperately try to trade him in the summer to a highest bidder.

So....trade a player based off one game? Am I reading that correctly?
 

The Instigator

Tom Wilson - NHL All Star
Feb 6, 2010
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Trotz won't be fired he simply won't be re-signed. Personally I want Suter next.

And as pissed as I am when I see some of these lineups Trotz is putting together at practice, I'm not getting mad until game one when Holtby starts and Vrana/Gersich/Jerabek are all sitting. Then I will simply flip off the game and watch something else.
I think he means if Vigneault gets the boot.
 

Ridley Simon

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Feb 27, 2002
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Yeah, all of this. If a line/team can't dictate play, it's a dead-end.

Minimizing the probability of a spectacular failure (in a particular game), e.g. small skilled young guys getting smashed, is NOT the same thing as maximizing the probability of (ultimate) success.

The corresponding motto is -- "let's make sure we at least fail honorably"... which in reality becomes just "let's fail honorably" (since we're not gonna try anything promising -- for fear of spectacular failure).

There's nothing new in this, ofc. Tbh, I have a feeling that the majority of NHL coaches are no better in this respect.

This may be a lot of hand-wringing over nothing (not meant at you Art, more the entire group).

IMO, we saw the playoff lineup versus Pittsburgh. That is what the team will look like, save injury. Pinho certainly wont play unless need be (would like to see him v New Jersey), and Djoos wont either.

That said, we may see some different wrinkles if Philly or CBJ are the opponent...but I think we saw "the team" vs the Pens.
 

ovikovy817

Registered User
May 23, 2015
6,217
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Belgium
On Beagle...Playoffs Beagle is the best Beagle. I want him back and healthy.

Yeah, I think many forgot how he's always serviceable (remember that save in OT against the Pens?)

Btw, the face off % in the last 2 games was
44% against the Blues (Kuzya with 36% and -2 for all members of that line)
45% against the Preds (Kuzya with 29% and Kuzya with 3 points but -1 for all members of that line)
 
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twabby

Registered User
Mar 9, 2010
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The problem with Beagle isn't necessarily his inability to play, it's his coach entrusting him with way too much responsibility.

Having him take defensive zone draws all the time sounds fine in theory since he wins a high percentage of his draws, but in reality he only wins 1 extra draw per game than an average player would. And he's usually replacing one of their better transition players when he takes the defensive zone draw (Vrana, Burakovsky, and sometimes Ovechkin are taken off the ice so Beagle can take the draw). Is that extra faceoff win per game worth having a worse player on the ice, especially when a defensive zone faceoff win doesn't guarantee a smooth exit from the zone? I'd say almost assuredly not except in very distinct situations like late-game empty net situations and certain penalty killing situations where it's not really necessary to exit with control of the puck.

I'd much rather they dial back his ice time at even strength and play him like a 4C rather than an even strength defensive zone specialist because he is not that.
 

twabby

Registered User
Mar 9, 2010
13,723
14,639
Paging @twabby hasn't it been determined that faceoff wins barely or don't correlate with moar goals? If true, likely because the faceoff guys largely do just that / don't provide much offense.

I am fine with your ace faceoff guy out late with 20 seconds left and a DZone faceoff. But it circles back to old school thinking, playing reactive vs proactive. Foot on the neck, vs foot on the brakes and basically concede we are not going to score. I believe its called #turtle

Barry loves him some Beagle and he has his benefits, but is also at the root of old school dirty hockey. The game is evolving based on rule changes, heavily. The grinders cannot clutch and grab their way to evening up the playing field with faster players. Speed and skill kills it now. If he wants to feature Beagle, he needs to mark him on an opposition C and give him a shutdown shadow role, at least when he has last change. You just cannot blindly roll 4 lines in the playoffs. Use the home last line change dammit, and have a plan to dismember the opposition. Heavily target the oppositions turnover happy pizza delivery boy. Be tactical down to the last possible advantage to exploit.

I am really hope Barry breaks away from his comfort zone of reactive coaching, depending on vets, slowly grinding away to glorious victories. You think after 20 years of playoff failures, it's time to exit the comfort zone. They say you cannot teach an old dog new tricks but I call bunk. I taught my hound dog how to sit up at age 10. Food always wins.

Assigning goal value to Toronto’s faceoff takers
http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/FaceoffAnalysis12-12.pdf

article_a60f746d-3d6a-4625-81d2-4130275cbd3a.jpg


I'm not going to vouch for this analysis but the conclusions make sense to me. Special teams non-neutral zone draws seem like they should carry a lot more weight than others and indeed according to the numbers they are the most important.

FWIW Beagle is a +141 at even strength and a +15 shorthanded (Corsica doesn't break it down by zone). With those numbers and this analysis you'd conclude Beagle adds about 1.75 goals over the course of this season due strictly to his faceoff capabilities. That's not bad, but I'd guess his shortcomings elsewhere in his game make him an overall net-negative player especially with his overusage. And indeed Corsica has him at -4.0 goals above replacement.
 
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RandyHolt

Keep truckin'
Nov 3, 2006
34,776
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Interesting..... We have used Beagle extensively for important draws almost his entire tenure here, and it simply hasn't been a difference maker. Not to downplay his game, but the defensive aces have to be used fully in that role. They have to PK and also shutdown his top defensive assignment when the games really count. Like, next week. Use him wisely, Barry! Thanks Twabby.
 

artilector

Registered User
Jan 11, 2006
8,351
1,187
This may be a lot of hand-wringing over nothing (not meant at you Art, more the entire group).

IMO, we saw the playoff lineup versus Pittsburgh. That is what the team will look like, save injury. Pinho certainly wont play unless need be (would like to see him v New Jersey), and Djoos wont either.

That said, we may see some different wrinkles if Philly or CBJ are the opponent...but I think we saw "the team" vs the Pens.

Well, regarding hand-wringing, I think it's not a constructive way to characterize an argument -- I'll leave it at that.

As to the main point... it's pretty simple:
- Caps can't have any success without an effective bottom-6
- right now, the bottom-6 is basically in disarray (except for Eller, who brings a factor of stability).
- Trotz seems to have no clue as far as what to do about it -- wrinkles are not gonna help if the lines are haphazard. Yes, it's possible that he'll stumble into an effective (or even simply a potentially effective) lineup by chance, e.g. if injuries force his hand.
- if anything, Trotz seems likely to go more conservative in a pinch, meaning featuring low-risk/low-reward players that simply get outskated/outclassed by top teams.

That's just where the Caps are, IMO. Would you disagree? Do you think Trotz has a good bottom-6 blueprint for the Pens? If you do, it would be interesting to hear your thoughts on what that might be. Honest questions.
 
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