Speculation: Caps Hockey General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) -- 2017-18 Regular Season Edition

[Sam Spade]

That other thread was a mess, so I decided to create one for the season that has begun.

I will start off by saying that this Caps team is good enough to make the playoffs but we all know how it will end. After seeing Djoos and the dynamic he brings (and watching him in Hershey last season) we need to keep him in the lineup for this season.

Going one step further, we need to waive Ness or Chorney, who really cares which one, and get Bowey up here now. Let them play the season and be ready for the playoffs. The whole dynamic, not just the defense, of the team changes with those two in the lineup.

I will be so excited to see this team evolve just by making some simple, and obvious, changes.


mod: previous thread http://hfboards.mandatory.com/threa...7-18-training-camp-preseason-edition.2384095/

Click to read more...

 

[g00n]

Good by me. I closed the last thread. Just link the old one in the new OP when we hit 1,000 or so. Adding it to the OP

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

If they were able to keep Johansson then losing Schmidt would make more sense. It’s losing both players for a meager return that stings and reflects poorly on management.

Moving this over here, since this appears to be the bone you refuse to let go of. I feel like this has all been said, but again...

You ever think maybe they shopped both MJ AND Schmidt and the offers for MJ were significantly better, so they decided to protect him knowing they were simply going to try and recoup some assets trading him later? Maybe there was ZERO doubt in their minds that Vegas would pick MJ IF he were exposed? Seems reasonable to me.

They protected the more valuable asset (in a trade scenario) at the time IMO. So, while you call it a “meager return”, maybe that’s all the market would bear and they got the best that they could get?

The real rub with you appears to be you value Schmidt a lot more than the professionals (GMBM), therefor you can’t accept the logic in protecting MJ only to trade him away for less than we Caps fans would have liked to see him return.

The hardest part for me in giving IMO an honest evaluation of Schmidt is he’s such a likeable person from what we see as fans. Big goofy smile, friendly demeanor in interviews...nice energy and enthusiasm on ice.

My opinion, Schmidt is a nice middle-pair puck mover in today’s NHL, but he’s unlikely to EVER be the 1st choice (assuming a healthy roster) on any real Cup contender for critical duty (PP or PK with the game on the line). He’s a minute eater with great skating that makes him a solid, viable 3/4 D. He’s got an average at best shot. His playmaking isn’t very noteworthy. He is what he is....a pretty good D, but of the level that you could trade for relatively inexpensively if you had the assets spare, or didn’t have some similar young guys waiting in the wings to step in for him.

I promise you this. If Nate Schmidt develops into a top-pair defender (on a legit Cup contender), I’ll be back here with you pumping his tires and admitting you were right. Until then, his time in Vegas really means nothing beyond Nate’s personal development. I don’t expect he so good that he finishes his career in Vegas because they sign him to a career deal. I expect at best he plays ~two years there and gets traded for assets. I’d bet he probably goes the journeyman route and bounces around to 3-4 teams the rest of his career AFTER Vegas.

 

[g00n]

CSB time.

So my brothers, friends and I have been yelling "PETER GABRIEL!" at exactly halfway through the game (10min in the 2nd period) for years now. The reasons for this are obscure and maybe I'll share at some point, but the funny thing is after all this time the organist finally caught on and played "Sledgehammer" yesterday at the appropriate Peter Gabriel Time.

Listen next time, maybe you'll hear it. LOL

 

[Sam Spade]

Moving this over here, since this appears to be the bone you refuse to let go of. I feel like this has all been said, but again...

You ever think maybe they shopped both MJ AND Schmidt and the offers for MJ were significantly better, so they decided to protect him knowing they were simply going to try and recoup some assets trading him later? Maybe there was ZERO doubt in their minds that Vegas would pick MJ IF he were exposed? Seems reasonable to me.

They protected the more valuable asset (in a trade scenario) at the time IMO. So, while you call it a “meager return”, maybe that’s all the market would bear and they got the best that they could get?

The real rub with you appears to be you value Schmidt a lot more than the professionals (GMBM), therefor you can’t accept the logic in protecting MJ only to trade him away for less than we Caps fans would have liked to see him return.

The hardest part for me in giving IMO an honest evaluation of Schmidt is he’s such a likeable person from what we see as fans. Big goofy smile, friendly demeanor in interviews...nice energy and enthusiasm on ice.

My opinion, Schmidt is a nice middle-pair puck mover in today’s NHL, but he’s unlikely to EVER be the 1st choice (assuming a healthy roster) on any real Cup contender for critical duty (PP or PK with the game on the line). He’s a minute eater with great skating that makes him a solid, viable 3/4 D. He’s got an average at best shot. His playmaking isn’t very noteworthy. He is what he is....a pretty good D, but of the level that you could trade for relatively inexpensively if you had the assets spare, or didn’t have some similar young guys waiting in the wings to step in for him.

I promise you this. If Nate Schmidt develops into a top-pair defender (on a legit Cup contender), I’ll be back here with you pumping his tires and admitting you were right. Until then, his time in Vegas really means nothing beyond Nate’s personal development. I don’t expect he so good that he finishes his career in Vegas because they sign him to a career deal. I expect at best he plays ~two years there and gets traded for assets. I’d bet he probably goes the journeyman route and bounces around to 3-4 teams the rest of his career AFTER Vegas.

Great post, deserved more than a "like".

Couldn't agree more with the "we love Nate the person and it clouds our judgement of what he actually brings on the ice" narrative.

I also agree they knew Marge was gone and he would bring the bigger return so they protected him.

 

[OV Rocks]

Moving this over here, since this appears to be the bone you refuse to let go of. I feel like this has all been said, but again...

You ever think maybe they shopped both MJ AND Schmidt and the offers for MJ were significantly better, so they decided to protect him knowing they were simply going to try and recoup some assets trading him later? Maybe there was ZERO doubt in their minds that Vegas would pick MJ IF he were exposed? Seems reasonable to me.

They protected the more valuable asset (in a trade scenario) at the time IMO. So, while you call it a “meager return”, maybe that’s all the market would bear and they got the best that they could get?

The real rub with you appears to be you value Schmidt a lot more than the professionals (GMBM), therefor you can’t accept the logic in protecting MJ only to trade him away for less than we Caps fans would have liked to see him return.

The hardest part for me in giving IMO an honest evaluation of Schmidt is he’s such a likeable person from what we see as fans. Big goofy smile, friendly demeanor in interviews...nice energy and enthusiasm on ice.

My opinion, Schmidt is a nice middle-pair puck mover in today’s NHL, but he’s unlikely to EVER be the 1st choice (assuming a healthy roster) on any real Cup contender for critical duty (PP or PK with the game on the line). He’s a minute eater with great skating that makes him a solid, viable 3/4 D. He’s got an average at best shot. His playmaking isn’t very noteworthy. He is what he is....a pretty good D, but of the level that you could trade for relatively inexpensively if you had the assets spare, or didn’t have some similar young guys waiting in the wings to step in for him.

I promise you this. If Nate Schmidt develops into a top-pair defender (on a legit Cup contender), I’ll be back here with you pumping his tires and admitting you were right. Until then, his time in Vegas really means nothing beyond Nate’s personal development. I don’t expect he so good that he finishes his career in Vegas because they sign him to a career deal. I expect at best he plays ~two years there and gets traded for assets. I’d bet he probably goes the journeyman route and bounces around to 3-4 teams the rest of his career AFTER Vegas.

I think what gets lost in the Schmidt/MOJO conversation is the trickle down effect it has on the rest of the team in terms of positions. Nate Schmidt is not an elite d-man and I highly doubt he ever will even make it to an All Star game. However on this team this year he would have been pretty valuable. It is pretty obvious he would've slotted in with Carlson for a solid 2nd pairing. Now we are talking a top 4 of Orlov-Niskanen and Schmidt-Carlson, leaving a bottom pairing of a rookie (Djoos, Bowey) to play with good ole reliable (cough cough) Brooks Orpik. That means balanced minutes for the defense and less PK time for Niskanen and Carlson because of Schmidt. The top 4 on this roster is playing way too much which 4 games into the season is already a problem.

Now flip to the offensive side. Yes this team would benefit from having MOJO on the roster for a scoring touch on the 3rd line but his contribution and minutes are easily moved to other player. Vrana is doing great (my opinion) alongside Ovi and Kuzy and hopefully Burky starts to mesh with Backy and Oshie. MOJO would be a luxury on the 3rd line on this team. There is a glut of player in the AHL and on the roster now that can do the job on the 3rd and 4th line.

I wish what would've been explored to Vegas was a deal you take Grubauer over Schmidt and we will give you MOJO too. The team was comfortable losing Grubauer and there is/was the organizational depth in place for this season to replace MOJO. My opinion is for this team and the next 2-3 Schmidt needed to be on the roster over MOJO.

P.S. The defense is starting to scare me

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

So you would have proposed Grubby + Mojo to Vegas to keep Schmidt? I can’t get on board with that logic.

Everyone gets the roster ramifications IMO, NONE more so than GMBM. They’re paying Orpik to be a top-4 guy. Now he has to play like one.

They have plenty of horses to be a playoff team today. IMO their playoff luck is just as likely to poop out in round 2 (or earlier) with this roster as it has been doing with others. That last part is probably a bit fatalistic of me, but hey Caps fans, it is what it is.

 

[twabby]

You ever think maybe they shopped both MJ AND Schmidt and the offers for MJ were significantly better, so they decided to protect him knowing they were simply going to try and recoup some assets trading him later? Maybe there was ZERO doubt in their minds that Vegas would pick MJ IF he were exposed? Seems reasonable to me.

They protected the more valuable asset (in a trade scenario) at the time IMO. So, while you call it a “meager return”, maybe that’s all the market would bear and they got the best that they could get?

Perhaps they did shop both, but what good are a 2nd + 3rd for a win-now team? They didn't sign Oshie to an 8-year deal because they thing he has room to grow, they did it because he's a good player who can help win right now and that's what it took to get him to stay in Washington. Losing both Schmidt and Johansson for a small return (what % of 2nd and 3rd become NHLers?) is hardly consistent with their goal of competing this season.

The real rub with you appears to be you value Schmidt a lot more than the professionals (GMBM), therefor you can’t accept the logic in protecting MJ only to trade him away for less than we Caps fans would have liked to see him return.

Yes, I probably do value Schmidt more than GMBM. That's the whole point in having this discussion because I disagreed with his moves. I'm hardly the only Caps fan (and hockey fan) who thought GMBM had a terrible offseason even given that the team was going to have to become weaker on paper. The fact that the third pairing has been a tire-fire (maybe Djoos helps fix it) just illustrates why I hated the move then and why I hate it now.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I feel like you haven’t appropriately adjusted your expectations as a fan Twabby.

They’re not a win-now team. They’re a playoff caliber team with a better than average chance of making some noise in the postseason. This is no longer an all-in, we’re Cup or bust each year team nor the management path they’re following.

2nd assumption wrong (they signed Oshie to WIN NOW). They signed him because he’s productive, plays all situations, is a fantastic teammate and room influence with a great work ethic, who appears to gel well wherever they stick him in the lineup. Yes they hope he contributes to wins of course, but signing him was not with the idea that he’s going to carry them to a Cup this year, it was that he would be a big contributor just like their other stars. Part of the puzzle, no more no less.

And while I do agree that GMBM has had a tough offseason, he was stuck between the hammer and the anvil.

They’re 2-1-1 with 5/8 points. 4th place, 102.5 pt pace. Honestly middle of the pack as a playoff qualifier is right where I had them at the end of the season, and that’s where they are.

I’m more concerned/interested to see if we can stay relatively healthy on D. If one of the top-4 goes down for a significant amount of time, it may force an aqusition.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Someone said above that the Caps are on a road to nowhere. I feel this accurately represents the situation. We're not in a "win now", "Cup or bust" mode anymore, but we're not rebuilding either. We're retooling for more 2nd round exits basically.

 

[OV Rocks]

So you would have proposed Grubby + Mojo to Vegas to keep Schmidt? I can’t get on board with that logic.

Everyone gets the roster ramifications IMO, NONE more so than GMBM. They’re paying Orpik to be a top-4 guy. Now he has to play like one.

They have plenty of horses to be a playoff team today. IMO their playoff luck is just as likely to poop out in round 2 (or earlier) with this roster as it has been doing with others. That last part is probably a bit fatalistic of me, but hey Caps fans, it is what it is.

With all this being hindsight its actually pretty logical, as everything in hindsight can be. Let me try and break it down then.

Where we are today: Grubauer is on the team, Defense is a BIG problem, Top 6 forwards are fine
Where we were before the draft: Defense was going to be fine, Goaltending was still great if Vegas takes Grubauer, and the Top 6 was going to be fine.


Forwards

-Pre Vegas Draft

Organizationally there should have been some more awareness of the amount of forwards that were coming up the pipeline. Vrana, Walker, Boyd, Stephenson, Barber should have all been looked at as serviceable forwards. Again with hindsight that makes a forward (MOJO) expendable to Vegas.

-Post Draft
Vrana is sticking, Walker has looked good, additional veteran acquisitions, cause Trotz still sucks with young guys (different argument) which can show that MOJO was expendable


Goaltending

-Pre Vegas Draft
Organizationally goaltending is a strength for a long time to come. Holtby, Gruabuer, Copley, Vanacheck*, Samsonov. The team is hoping that Vegas takes Gruabuer because there are plenty of goalies in the system. The lack of awareness comes when the fact that there are alot of goalies in the NHL. Everyone wants to deal from a position of power, in this case the Caps power came in goalies, sometimes that deal has to come with sacrifice. The Caps relied on on outside party (Vegas) catering to their hopes, which in a negotiation is a horrible strategy.

-Post Draft
Keep Grubauer, still alot of goalies on the roster. Now there is a glut of goalies across the league and nowhere to really send Grubauer, at the moment. Gruabuer will see maybe 30 games this season usually on a back to back, relief, and spotty starts. 30 games vs 82 for a forward or defenseman is a huge difference.

Defense

-Pre Vegas Draft
Organizationally the team has a solid group of defense in Orlov, Niskanen, Carlson, Schmidt, and Orpik, plus a couple of young guys who could fight for a 6th spot to play with Orpik and add some speed to the lineup. No real thought of losing Schmidt or plans to add a defenseman if someone is lost. Again they relied on an outside source (Vegas) to factor into their roster.

-Post Draft
Our defense is a mess, no way to sugar coat it. Panic sets in, young guys underwhelm in training camp, and the season starts with Aaron Ness and Taylor Chorney because the young guys have to find a place to live (...........BS!!!!!!!!!!).


My point being the Capitals have two strong organizational positions to deal from but let Vegas control the demand with no foresight from the Caps side. What is the cost of obtaining a top 4 d man of Schmidts caliber? Is it Grubauer and MOJO to Vegas, yeah mayber! This trade deadline its probably a 1st round pick and a prospect. I am worried about the defense and Schmidt would have cured that

 

[Raikkonen]

This was written on the wall in advance.
This season should be a transition, because we can hardly contend with current Orpik and Carlson and rookies.
Resolving Carlson's top-4 spot (trade/extension), removing Orpik, grooming Vrana, LuJo and Bowey - takes time.
The only thing we have left - watching reenergized Ovi in the regular season, hopefully he can continue at this rate
So this season was expected to be long and it'll be like that.

What worries me the most after 4 games? Burakovski.

 

[Sam Spade]

I'll take a 2nd round loss any day of the week with Bowey and Djoos in the lineup (and Vrana), than sticking with the "safe" Ness/Chorney types.

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[um]

our team has two first lines and two forth lines, very interesting.

 

[um]

This was written on the wall in advance.
This season should be a transition, because we can hardly contend with current Orpik and Carlson and rookies.
Resolving Carlson's top-4 spot (trade/extension), removing Orpik, grooming Vrana, LuJo and Bowey - takes time.
The only thing we have left - watching reenergized Ovi in the regular season, hopefully he can continue at this rate
So this season was expected to be long and it'll be like that.

What worries me the most after 4 games? Burakovski.

Rookies don't have to suck in there first year. If Vrana, Djoos, and Bowey play well this year we can still contend.

 

[HeyMattyB]

I mean, at least a Connolly-Eller-Wilson third line *should be*, theoretically--maybe only on paper--better than a third line of Connolly-Eller-Chiasson?

 

[ovikovy817]

Chiasson, Graovac and Walker to compete for 4LW.

 

[Langway]

Free Walker.

So much for Wilson's return changing anything re: the roster since no one is on waivers today.

 

[um]

Chiasson, Graovac and Walker to compete for 4LW.

Chiasson seems to have a good lead given he's been playing on the third line and he's been getting PK time, I'd say DSP's spot is less secure.

Most importantly we'll see who get's the PK time now that Wilson is back.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

With all this being hindsight its actually pretty logical, as everything in hindsight can be. Let me try and break it down then.

Where we are today: Grubauer is on the team, Defense is a BIG problem, Top 6 forwards are fine
Where we were before the draft: Defense was going to be fine, Goaltending was still great if Vegas takes Grubauer, and the Top 6 was going to be fine.


Forwards

-Pre Vegas Draft

Organizationally there should have been some more awareness of the amount of forwards that were coming up the pipeline. Vrana, Walker, Boyd, Stephenson, Barber should have all been looked at as serviceable forwards. Again with hindsight that makes a forward (MOJO) expendable to Vegas.

-Post Draft
Vrana is sticking, Walker has looked good, additional veteran acquisitions, cause Trotz still sucks with young guys (different argument) which can show that MOJO was expendable


Goaltending

-Pre Vegas Draft
Organizationally goaltending is a strength for a long time to come. Holtby, Gruabuer, Copley, Vanacheck*, Samsonov. The team is hoping that Vegas takes Gruabuer because there are plenty of goalies in the system. The lack of awareness comes when the fact that there are alot of goalies in the NHL. Everyone wants to deal from a position of power, in this case the Caps power came in goalies, sometimes that deal has to come with sacrifice. The Caps relied on on outside party (Vegas) catering to their hopes, which in a negotiation is a horrible strategy.

-Post Draft
Keep Grubauer, still alot of goalies on the roster. Now there is a glut of goalies across the league and nowhere to really send Grubauer, at the moment. Gruabuer will see maybe 30 games this season usually on a back to back, relief, and spotty starts. 30 games vs 82 for a forward or defenseman is a huge difference.

Defense

-Pre Vegas Draft
Organizationally the team has a solid group of defense in Orlov, Niskanen, Carlson, Schmidt, and Orpik, plus a couple of young guys who could fight for a 6th spot to play with Orpik and add some speed to the lineup. No real thought of losing Schmidt or plans to add a defenseman if someone is lost. Again they relied on an outside source (Vegas) to factor into their roster.

-Post Draft
Our defense is a mess, no way to sugar coat it. Panic sets in, young guys underwhelm in training camp, and the season starts with Aaron Ness and Taylor Chorney because the young guys have to find a place to live (...........BS!!!!!!!!!!).


My point being the Capitals have two strong organizational positions to deal from but let Vegas control the demand with no foresight from the Caps side. What is the cost of obtaining a top 4 d man of Schmidts caliber? Is it Grubauer and MOJO to Vegas, yeah mayber! This trade deadline its probably a 1st round pick and a prospect. I am worried about the defense and Schmidt would have cured that

The truth is, Mojo was always expendable. What made him retainable over Schmidt was his value around the league. They (IMO) traded him for a higher return than they would have gotten for Schmidt. Look at that buffoon McPhee now. He held onto a bunch of decent to mediocre D expecting to get bum rushed by a trade stampede that never happened. Schmidt-like D are NOT that hard to come by if you want to spend. The Caps may still be forced to make such a move if one of our Top-4 go down but it won't cost the equivalent value of a Grubby + Mojo. Zero chance.

Early in the year, you're massively exaggerating the danger of our D being "a mess" IMO. We're 4th in the East, 8th in GA and 4th in Goal differential. Djoos just had a nice 1st game. I'm more excited about that than I'm worried about the loss of Schmidt.

 

[trick9]

Over/Under: 100 points from bottom-6?

More importantly. Over/Under: 5 points from bottom-6 in the Playoffs?

 

[txpd]

Someone said above that the Caps are on a road to nowhere. I feel this accurately represents the situation. We're not in a "win now", "Cup or bust" mode anymore, but we're not rebuilding either. We're retooling for more 2nd round exits basically.

Cup or Bust was second round exits. The Caps have a Vezina winner/Vezina finalist goalie in his prime. They have a top 5 scorer in the league last season at center. They have to top goal scorer of his era. They have an emerging star at 2c. Their defense is decent. No reason this team cant get hot and win 2 playoff rounds. They are definitely not in blow it up and break it down position. Is that what you want to see?

 

[Brian23]

The truth is, Mojo was always expendable. What made him retainable over Schmidt was his value around the league. They (IMO) traded him for a higher return than they would have gotten for Schmidt. Look at that buffoon McPhee now. He held onto a bunch of decent to mediocre D expecting to get bum rushed by a trade stampede that never happened. Schmidt-like D are NOT that hard to come by if you want to spend. The Caps may still be forced to make such a move if one of our Top-4 go down but it won't cost the equivalent value of a Grubby + Mojo. Zero chance.

Early in the year, you're massively exaggerating the danger of our D being "a mess" IMO. We're 4th in the East, 8th in GA and 4th in Goal differential. Djoos just had a nice 1st game. I'm more excited about that than I'm worried about the loss of Schmidt.

The fact the Captain is averaging 2 goals a game hides a lot of flaws in the team. I also think you're severely under-rating what Schmidt was able to do. I have no doubt you can get a bottom pairing defender for peanuts essentially, but Schmidt was much better than any other bottom 6 guy around the league at breaking the puck out and moving with purpose. Those are skills that are hard to replace.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

our team has two first lines and two forth lines, very interesting.

More like funny. Funny sad, not funny haha.....