TSN: Canuck Point Projections

[racerjoe]

Just seemed like bad luck and the injuries to Hank(rib), Sanforelli (shoulder) and Booth (concussion) were done by Martin Hanzal.

Daniel got his knee hurt in the heritage game.

Tanev for blocking a shot.

I blame torts for sapping their will, but blaming him for contact injures just doesn't hold.

Not to mention burrows, jaw was from his own player (I think).

Torts had a bad 2nd half but I think it wouldn't be very fair to lay these injuries at his feet.

Henrik was due for an injury.

While I agree injuries were from contact, I think some of the guys not being able to step up and fill the void was from being overplayed. Before Kes got hurt he looked tired. Things like that.

Having said that, that is also why we started out so well and won so many games.

 

[discordant concord]

Points 2015-16

Points

Sedin (65) Sedin (65) Burrows (40)

Bartschi (35) Horvat (40) Vrbata (45)

Higgins (25) Sutter (25) Hansen (30 extra points due to time with Sedins)

Prust (20) Vey (30 some PP time) Dorsett (25)

Kenins (15 points in limited depth role)

Virtanen (35 points full-season, unlikely)

 

[discordant concord]

Goals 2015-16

Goals

Sedin (18) Sedin (15) Burrows (22)

Bartschi (18) Horvat (18) Vrbata (25)

Higgins (12) Sutter (15) Hansen (12)

Prust (5) Vey (14) Dorsett (5)
-
-
Kenins (6 goals in limited depth role)

Virtanen (25 goals if full-season, unlikely)

 

[The Iron Goalie]

Projections

D.Sedin - 19G, 45A, 64Pts 81Gp
H.Sedin - 13G, 57A, 70Pts 82Gp
Burrows - 24G, 21A, 45Pts 76Gp

Baertschi - 14G, 23A, 37Pts 75Gp
Horvat - 21G, 18A, 39Pts 80Gp
Vrbata - 27G, 29A, 56Pts 78Gp

Higgins - 16G, 18A, 34Pts 80Gp
Sutter - 19G, 14A, 33Pts 76Gp
Hansen - 15G, 17A, 32Pts 75Gp

Prust - 5G, 9A, 14Pts 65Gp
Vey - 8G, 12A, 20Pts 72Gp
Dorsett - 7G, 11A, 18Pts 74Gp

See use rolling the Horvat, and sutter lines ~ equal mins so a break down of

Sedin ~18mins
Horvat ~ 16mins
Sutter ~ 16mins
Vey ~10mins

Edler - 10G, 23A, 33Pts 78Gp
Tanev - 4G, 21A, 25Pts 75Gp

Hamhuis - 5G, 22, 27Pts 78Gp
Sbisa - 3G, 9A, 12Pts 70Gp

Bartkowski - 1G, 7A, 8Pts 76Gp
Corrado - 4G, 7A, 11Pts 73Gp*
Weber - 9G, 12A, 21Pts 74Gp*

* these player may change depending on which becomes a regular.

Miller - Gp65, 29W, 27L, 9OT/SOL, 0.908sv%, 2.59GAA
Markstrom - 17Gp, 7W, 9L, 1OT/SOL, 0.895%, 2.76GAA

Canucks team stats

Wins - 36
Loses - 36
OTL - 10
Pts - 82
GA - 215~
GF - 215~
Miss the playoffs

Draft Matthews

 

[discordant concord]

Wins - 36
Loses - 36
OTL - 10
Pts - 82
GA - 215~
GF - 215~
Miss the playoffs

Draft Matthews

Part of me thinks that isn't a bottom feeder roster. However, if we unload Vrbata + Hamhuis and maybe Higgins, that's a different story

We can all agree we are a playoff bubble team at best.

Losing Matthias' 18 goals will hurt (not to mention Bonino and Kassian's raw skill). It's funny how at the same time I think we are a top pairing offensive d-man away from being a playoff lock and possible darkhorse contender.

 

[y2kcanucks]

Little early, and I reserve the right to modify this after training camp:

Goals:

Sedin (21) - Sedin (14) - Burrows (18)
Higgins (12) - Sutter (14) - Vrbata (23)
Prust (9) - Horvat (18) - Hansen (13)
Baertschi (10) - Vey (7) - Dorsett (5)
Kenins (8), Grenier (3)

Edler (7) - Tanev (5)
Hamhuis (5) - Sbisa (6)
Bartkowski (2) - Weber (9)
Corrado (3)

Total: 212

Miller: 50 starts: 21-23-6 2.70 GAA 0.905 SVP
Markstrom: 32 starts: 10-17-5 2.90 GAA 0.895 SVP

 

[Reverend Mayhem]

D. Sedin(22-51-73)-H. Sedin(17-57-74)-Vrbata(34-26-60)
Baertschi(15-22-37)-Horvat(18-24-42)-Burrows(21-16-37)
Virtanen(15-9-24)-Sutter(18-11-29)-Hansen(10-26-36)
Prust(5-11-16)-Vey(8-15-23)-Dorsett(7-16-23)

Edler(10-23-33)-Tanev(4-19-23)
Hamhuis(3-21-24)-Weber(10-16-26)
Sbisa(2-10-12)-Corrado(3-12-15)

Miller (27-20-8, 2.67 GAA, 0.913 SV%, 3 SO)
Markstrom (12-10-5, 2.58 GAA, 0.914 SV%, 2 SO)

People going a bit too conservative on Hank and Dank methinks.
Assuming we are all healthy and run this same line-up all 82, which we will not be.

 

[CCF23]

D. Sedin(22-51-73)-H. Sedin(17-57-74)-Vrbata(34-26-60)
Baertschi(15-22-37)-Horvat(18-24-42)-Burrows(21-16-37)
Virtanen(15-9-24)-Sutter(18-11-29)-Hansen(10-26-36)
Prust(5-11-16)-Vey(8-15-23)-Dorsett(7-16-23)

Edler(10-23-33)-Tanev(4-19-23)
Hamhuis(3-21-24)-Weber(10-16-26)
Sbisa(2-10-12)-Corrado(3-12-15)

Miller (27-20-8, 2.67 GAA, 0.913 SV%, 3 SO)
Markstrom (12-10-5, 2.58 GAA, 0.914 SV%, 2 SO)

People going a bit too conservative on Hank and Dank methinks.
Assuming we are all healthy and run this same line-up all 82, which we will not be.

Everything you have is fairly close to what I have, and I think your projected point total of 91 is pretty close to what it will actually be too. Probably just outside of the Wild Card.

Team isn't as bad as a lot of people seem to think. Probably not a playoff team, but they won't be in the tank by January or February like people seem to think. Unfortunately, we're probably in limbo. Hopefully if we're just outside at the deadline management isn't stubborn. We need to sell in that scenario.

 

[Street Hawk]

Everything you have is fairly close to what I have, and I think your projected point total of 91 is pretty close to what it will actually be too. Probably just outside of the Wild Card.

Team isn't as bad as a lot of people seem to think. Probably not a playoff team, but they won't be in the tank by January or February like people seem to think. Unfortunately, we're probably in limbo. Hopefully if we're just outside at the deadline management isn't stubborn. We need to sell in that scenario.

I will preference with the following:

Anaheim and LA will be the top 2 teams in the Pacific.
5 teams from the Central (Hawks, Blues, Preds, Wild, Jets, Stars, Avs) will get in over the #4 seed in the Pacific.

So, based on that, if the Nucks make the playoffs, they play LA (since they never seem to have very strong regular seasons)

I don't think Vancouver can handle the size of LA and goaltending of Quick. So, 1st round loss if that is the case.

So, I think regardless of where they are in the standings come the trade deadline, it is time to move Vrbata, Hamhuis, Burrows, Higgins, and possibly Hansen.

When can the Canucks seriously compete for a Cup?

Not this coming season and nothing to suggest that in the very near future either. No top level D prospects or high end scorers in the system.

They have to sell in a season where they have 2 valuable soon to be UFA's and a couple of 1 year away UFA guys.

Future of Horvat, Virtanen, Boeser, Shinkaruk, Baertschi, Vey, Gaunce, Sutter need the extra help.
Not to mention, what little there is on the backend coming up.

Goal is to legitimately compete for the cup. Now and the next couple of years is not the time. Window was 2009-2013. But, poor drafting from 2006-2011, death of Bourdon, and the Luongo contract closed the window fast.

There are only a handful of positions to be in the NHL

1) Contender - competing for cup, thus add pieces to make the push
2) Building towards contender still - waiting for either young players to develop or need to add a vet or two to get to the next level
3) On decline. Not good enough to win cup. Can make playoffs, but won't contend. This is where Vancouver and Detroit are IMO. Both have vets (Datsyuk and Zetterberg for Detroit, that is they traded would speed up their turnaround, but they have chosen to hold onto them). Dan and Hank are a package deal, thus making any trade harder. Possible, if the Nucks eat cap hit but need a solid return to do so. They have Hamhuis, Vrbata, Burrows, etc. to dangle this season
4) Stuck in the middle. Neither really bad or good enough to move up a level. Depending on what the Nucks do this season, they could land here in No Man's Land.

 

[VanJack]

Would it be better for 'Nucks to tank, be big sellers at the deadline and acquire a bevy of additional picks in the '016 draft?...or just squeeze into the post-season, then get blown out in the first round and be drafting in the 15-21 range in the first round again?...it's a 'no-brainer' right?...for everyone but the Aquaman.

 

[arsmaster*]

LOL. Markstrom getting 32 starts is incredibly unlikely if Miller is healthy.

 

[PM]

I think that both Miller and Markstrom will break down from a too heavy workload this year. We have a 35 year old starter that hasn't started more than 60 games in like 5 years and could barely handle his workload last year. We have a backup who hasn't played more than a dozen NHL games in a year in four years or so.

I bet Miller starts more than 60, and gets broken down.
I bet Markstrom starts more than 20, and gets overwhelmed.

Meanwhile, Lack cements himself as the starter in Carolina, usurps Cam Ward, becomes a fan favourite, and signs a reasonable mid-length contract.

 

[y2kcanucks]

LOL. Markstrom getting 32 starts is incredibly unlikely if Miller is healthy.

Just as unlikely as it is that Miller stays healthy.

 

[ChilliBilly]

Everything you have is fairly close to what I have, and I think your projected point total of 91 is pretty close to what it will actually be too. Probably just outside of the Wild Card.

Team isn't as bad as a lot of people seem to think. Probably not a playoff team, but they won't be in the tank by January or February like people seem to think. Unfortunately, we're probably in limbo. Hopefully if we're just outside at the deadline management isn't stubborn. We need to sell in that scenario.

Gee, and Aquaman will think of the future over barely making the playoffs and getting an extra $5 - 6 M out of the faithful .... ? Not a single move in the history of this ass has been anything but wringing every last cent he can out of the faithful.

And i am a long term season ticket holder ....

 

[Love]

LOL. Markstrom getting 32 starts is incredibly unlikely if Miller is healthy.

Just as unlikely as it is that Miller stays healthy.

Haha y2k you took the words right out of my mouth.

 

[Reverend Mayhem]

Just as unlikely as it is that Miller stays healthy.

I don't think he'll be 100% to start the season and I think that will come back to haunt him as I think the big workload'll hamstring him, literally by February once more. Not as long this time, though. Plus MGMT's put a lot of eggs into this Markstrom basket.

 

[Regal]

I think that both Miller and Markstrom will break down from a too heavy workload this year. We have a 35 year old starter that hasn't started more than 60 games in like 5 years and could barely handle his workload last year. We have a backup who hasn't played more than a dozen NHL games in a year in four years or so.

I bet Miller starts more than 60, and gets broken down.
I bet Markstrom starts more than 20, and gets overwhelmed.

Meanwhile, Lack cements himself as the starter in Carolina, usurps Cam Ward, becomes a fan favourite, and signs a reasonable mid-length contract.

Markstrom started 23 games in the lockout season, which was basically half the year. I don't see how a backup would be overwhelmed by 20 starts. He's still been starting 30ish games in the AHL as well. If he's overwhelmed it'll be because he's just not NHL quality, not because he can't handle the workload.

 

[arsmaster*]

Markstrom could not be trusted for a single game he past two seasons here.

Eddie lack was quite good and was on pace for 19 starts.

you can't teach old dog Willie new tricks. He loves vets and doesn't trust Markstrom. I don't expect that to change. Wouldn't be surprised if Bachman and Markstrom platoon if Miller goes down.

 

[ugghhh]

I think that both Miller and Markstrom will break down from a too heavy workload this year. We have a 35 year old starter that hasn't started more than 60 games in like 5 years and could barely handle his workload last year. We have a backup who hasn't played more than a dozen NHL games in a year in four years or so.

I bet Miller starts more than 60, and gets broken down.
I bet Markstrom starts more than 20, and gets overwhelmed.

Meanwhile, Lack cements himself as the starter in Carolina, usurps Cam Ward, becomes a fan favourite, and signs a reasonable mid-length contract.

i prefer this kind of classical canuck storyline vs the benning version we're currently getting.

This... This feels like home.

 

[CP]

D. Sedin(20-70-90)-H. Sedin(15-80-95)-Virtanen(73-2-75)

Just beat Selanne's rookie record is all I ask.

 

[Reverend Mayhem]

D. Sedin(20-70-90)-H. Sedin(15-80-95)-Virtanen(73-2-75)

Just beat Selanne's rookie record is all I ask.

Selanne's record was 76 goals.

 

[Captain Bowie]

Solid projections to be honest, except Matthias may be too high.

Here's what I got:

Daniel: 18g 33a 51p
Henrik: 13g 44a 57p

The Daniel we had pre-Keith elbow was trending downward too. This is another case where people forget poor play prior to an injury and resort to blaming said injury for poor performance.

I just don't see the Sedins bucking a 5 year downward trend of their point production. I also don't see the rest of the lineup being all that great either.

And I still don't see them scoring more than 60 this season.

They didn't manage a 70 point pace last year. And I'm basing it off of their declining trend over the past 5 years. Will they be as downright useless as they were for most of last year? Probably not. But I don't think they're 70-80 point players anymore and nothing I've seen from them over the past 24 months suggests they are.

No I didn't see that, but it doesn't really matter either. I'm not one to flip-flop on issues, especially after one game. We'll see how they do. It's my prediction. Anyone is entitled to their own predictions. I've posted mine, and supported why I predicted what I did. That gets some people upset and mad I guess, because they don't like people talking bad about their heroes maybe. I dunno. All I know is these are what I predicted and we'll see at the end of the season if I was right, wrong, close, or way off. That's why these things are fun.

Guess we know which one it was.

For transparency's sake, here's what I said:

I don't know about that. I don't think the Sedins are going to finish much higher, if at all, than 70 points. Kinda right where I would have expecetd. Still quality first line players, but I just don't think they are going to have any more crazy 12 points in 5 games kinda stretches any more.

 

[bossram]

Henrik: 12-57-69
Daniel: 16-48-64
Burrows: 20-21-41

Vrbata: 21-30-51
Sutter: 17-11-28
Baertschi: 11-20-31

Higgins: 15-19-35
Horvat: 13-17-30
Hansen: 12-21-33

Dorsett: 6-13-19
Vey: 9-20-29
Prust: 5-10-15

Kenins: 9-9-18
Virtanen*: 9-10-19 **if makes team for season

Edler: 8-25-33
Tanev: 6-20-26
Hamhuis: 1-19-20
Weber: 11-15-26
Bartkowski: 0-19-19
Corrado: 3-11-14
Sbisa: 2-12-14

Miller: .912 SV%
Markstrom: .913SV%

All projections on an 82 game pace. Will favourite this page for the future.

 

[Reverend Mayhem]

Not his best outting, but then your boy Lu collapsed against Chicago too, and Boston. Never hear any complaints about that.

Would I like to see more from the Sedins in the playoffs? Absolutely. But they are far from bad players.

It's always gotta boil down to this stupidity. The team failed together. Both of you need to realize that and I hope you both have by now.

 

[Huggy]

Horvat 23, 34 57
Baertschi 18, 20 38
Kenins 19 11 30