C/LW Anton Lundell - IFK Helsinki, Liiga (2020 Draft)

[Intangir]

The only factors precluding Lundell from a top 5-8 draft slot are skating, his acceleration and top speed are slightly below-average, his strides are choppy and his posture is weird (flaws that long-term power-skating lessons can rectify), and problems pertaining to his overall skillset as an offensive player, AKA lack of ++ puck skills, creativity, coupled with the fact that his release and arsenal of shots are only ''good''. Of the two, his relative weakness offensively compared to higher-ranked prospects is the harder flaw to make up for as you can't really develop pure talent, and it might ultimately limit his offensive potential, but that perceived lack of skill is overstated in my opinion, and Lundell's hockey sense and other attributes are underestimated in turn.

The positives outweigh the negatives massively for this kid, plain and simple. For one, he's as safe a prospect as I've seen in years in the draft; if injuries/weird accidents don't cause him to miss entirely, his absolute lowest floor is a bottom-6 forward. And then there's the fact that his absolute ceiling is not just a 50 point guy, but a 60-70 point strong two-way center that does basically everything well and competes hard, something that all teams need more of.

Personally, I feel that Lundell has less star potential than a guy like Kotkaniemi did as a prospect, also possesses a lower bust factor and higher floor, but otherwise is very similar to what Jesperi was as a prospect, and that is just an insanely good get. Some, put off by the fact that he doesn't track to be a first-liner, are really down on him, but I think they're a bit off their radar in this case.

If Lundell falls lower than the 10th-12th pick, the team that gets him is getting great value for their draft pick investment. If he fell to 16 I'd be stoked for the Canadiens to draft him even though we're set at center for the next 10 years.

He's that good, and should be getting more respect around here from non-finnish posters.

 

[Nabrules]

I think he would be a perfect fit for Winnipeg at 10. Perfect 2C potential after Scheifele

 

[Scoresberg]

I'm actually surprised Lundell isn't talked about more regarding this draft. He's a big, two-way center who already produced in Liiga as a 17-year-old. He's as mature as they get and as a showing of that he carries an A for one of the top teams in Finland.

In a weaker draft year, I think we'd be talking about a top-5 pick. As a Preds fan, I'd be stoked if he was still there at #11.

 

[Nate070]

Yes, but that was looked at as “intensity” and “competitiveness” by the more optimistic among us at the time.

Yeah, for me it was a warning signal. Seems like there are some issues there but hopefully he can turn things around

 

[Kaako Kappo]

I'm actually surprised Lundell isn't talked about more regarding this draft. He's a big, two-way center who already produced in Liiga as a 17-year-old. He's as mature as they get and as a showing of that he carries an A for one of the top teams in Finland.

In a weaker draft year, I think we'd be talking about a top-5 pick. As a Preds fan, I'd be stoked if he was still there at #11.

I guess Kakko and Kotkaniemi, Kupari etc have made ppl skeptical of finnish prospects

 

[ChicagoBullsFan]

Can Lundell step right into the NHL this year?

No.
There is some new rule which not allow 2020 drafted
Euro players to play in NHL before season 2021-2022.

 

[scud9]

Lundell has been very impressive in last two seasons. I think he has been better than Kotkaniemi and Räty (Draft 2021).

 

[bigdog16]

I guess Kakko and Kotkaniemi, Kupari etc have made ppl skeptical of finnish prospects

I think more people are skeptical of Liiga production in general. Its proving to be not nearly as strong as many thought

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I've been researching the center prospects for this draft, and in a side-by-side comparison of footage and scouting reports Lundell looks to be the superior player when compared to Kotkaniemi in their respective draft years. He's at least as fast, arguably better defensively, and his shot is scary good. I think his ceiling can make him a defensively dominant center who gets you 25 -30 goals, 60-70 points. A floor of 40-50 point 2nd/3rd line center who is your shooter on the 2nd PP and runs PK1 is his floor.
If he falls out of the top 10 I'd be completely shocked, and I'd be even more surprised if he isn't picked in the top 7. I have him ahead of Raymond, Drysdale and Holtz.

 

[57special]

It's a strong draft. Guys like Sanderson, Askarov, and possibly Quinn, are challenging Lundell's spot. Hell, Zary sounds similar to me. Solid two way player who's future might be as a good #2/3 C, with a slight chance to bust, and a slight chance to be a #1C. Mercer also has all sorts of potential and might blow up this year, as does Holloway. Both can play C.

I wouldn't blame any team for taking Lundell as early #5, nor as late as # 14-15. Quinn seems to be a 6' Caufield with better wheels and two way play. Sounds pretty good to me. Mercer is fast, has really good hands, plays both ways, has good size, and can play C. Lots to like about that pkg. Both players appear to have higher offensive upside than Lundell, though i would say that Lundell is probably more of a facilitator than a finisher, while the others have more potential to be finishers.

Holloway...who knows? I haven't been impressed, but don't watch all the Badger's games, not being a masochist like @Digitalbooya . NCAA is a tougher league than the CHL to score in. With all the talk about the Liiga being weak, I wonder how it would stack up to strong NCAA competition?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Nearly everyone projected Lias Andersson as a center?

No way.

He played tons of wing in Sweden even before the draft. I sure saw him as an NHL winger.

And Lundell played more than 1.5 times as many pro games in Finland at age 17 than Andersson did in Sweden. Lundell's junior record is better than Andersson.

Andersson had ZERO points in 22 games as a 17 year old in SHL. Lundell in his 17 year old season: 19 points in 38 games in Liiga.

No, that's not a better season by Andersson.

If you think 17-year-old (and under) success isn't a tool of comparison, I strongly disagree.

Also, how many faceoffs did Andersson take in the SHL? Lundell was 53% as an 18-year old playing fully center.

I don’t think I heard one person discuss him as a winger before being drafted. Draft eligible prospects in men’s league often play wing. It’s a complete non-issue. I would say congratulations that you preempted the Andersson to wing discussion, but I don’t think it’s correct even at this point. I still think he’ll play center in the NHL.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

If his ceiling was a 50 point 2C he wouldn't be projected in the top half of the first.

No one aims for third liners with a 13th overall pick.

Do you know how many top 15 picks don’t become any better than a 3rd or 4th liner? It’s more than people realize when projecting draft picks. There’s also a difference between a realistic ceiling and a 100% outcome ceiling. Obviously the overwhelming majority of drafted players have a ceiling of an elite NHL’er. That’s how you get 6th and 7th rounders turning into elite players, but outside of the top 10 or so in most drafts, their realistic ceiling is not a first liner.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I guess Kakko and Kotkaniemi, Kupari etc have made ppl skeptical of finnish prospects

I think people are more skeptical of Liiga than Finnish prospects. I don’t think many regard production in that league the same way anymore. There are some guys who produced big numbers over their for their ages that were completely unready to replicate their production in North America.

 

[AKL]

Do you know how many top 15 picks don’t become any better than a 3rd or 4th liner? It’s more than people realize when projecting draft picks. There’s also a difference between a realistic ceiling and a 100% outcome ceiling. Obviously the overwhelming majority of drafted players have a ceiling of an elite NHL’er. That’s how you get 6th and 7th rounders turning into elite players, but outside of the top 10 or so in most drafts, their realistic ceiling is not a first liner.

There's a difference between those guys ending up as bottom six players, and their teams taking them with the hope they can become a bottom six player (as opposed to becoming top six).

Teams don't take players that early if they think their ceiling is a third liner.

 

[wings5]

I think people are more skeptical of Liiga than Finnish prospects. I don’t think many regard production in that league the same way anymore. There are some guys who produced big numbers over their for their ages that were completely unready to replicate their production in North America.

Like who ?

 

[tellermine]

I'm actually surprised Lundell isn't talked about more regarding this draft. He's a big, two-way center who already produced in Liiga as a 17-year-old. He's as mature as they get and as a showing of that he carries an A for one of the top teams in Finland.

In a weaker draft year, I think we'd be talking about a top-5 pick. As a Preds fan, I'd be stoked if he was still there at #11.

Most can see only that flair and highlights stuff.
Player like Lundell is more appealing pros than fans generally.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Like who ?

Puljujarvi, Kupari, Kotkaniemi, Kakko.

 

[Just Linda]

I've been researching the center prospects for this draft, and in a side-by-side comparison of footage and scouting reports Lundell looks to be the superior player when compared to Kotkaniemi in their respective draft years. He's at least as fast, arguably better defensively, and his shot is scary good. I think his ceiling can make him a defensively dominant center who gets you 25 -30 goals, 60-70 points. A floor of 40-50 point 2nd/3rd line center who is your shooter on the 2nd PP and runs PK1 is his floor.
If he falls out of the top 10 I'd be completely shocked, and I'd be even more surprised if he isn't picked in the top 7. I have him ahead of Raymond, Drysdale and Holtz.

The reason Kotkaneimi was touted higher than Lundell wasn't because of skill, but because of perceived potential. Lundell is a better player for sure than Kotkaneimi was at the same age, Kotkaneimi was seen as having more raw skills. My favourite scout comment about Kotkaneimi was comparing him to sometimes looking like a deer who'd just taken its first steps and imagining what that deer would look like once it learned how to walk.

Despite both being centres, being roughly the same size, playing in the same league, etc etc, I don't really see them as good prospect comparables. The keys for success for both of them are just so vastly different.

 

[cyclones22]

Puljujarvi, Kupari, Kotkaniemi, Kakko.

To be fair to Kupari, just as he was starting to understand team hockey on a smaller rink (way too much 1v1 and tunnel vision to start the season in the AHL), he thrashed his knee at the WJC. But at first, he definitely looked like a fish out of water in Ontario. I understand the skepticism though.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

No.
There is some new rule which not allow 2020 drafted
Euro players to play in NHL before season 2021-2022.

What new rule is this, exactly? Does it account for all players drafted out of any league in Europe, across the board?

This is the first I have heard of this.

 

[ijuka]

What new rule is this, exactly? Does it account for all players drafted out of any league in Europe, across the board?

This is the first I have heard of this.

It's not a new rule at all. It's an old rule, but becomes relevant this season due to how much the draft has been delayed.

 

[wings5]

Puljujarvi, Kupari, Kotkaniemi, Kakko.

Puljujarvi and Kotkaniemi were rushed at 18 which was the biggest mistake and regardless are still young enough to recover from their struggles. Kupari and Kakko are both too young to make any conclusions.

 

[bigdog16]

Puljujarvi and Kotkaniemi were rushed at 18 which was the biggest mistake and regardless are still young enough to recover from their struggles. Kupari and Kakko are both too young to make any conclusions.

You're missing the point though. They were rushed at 18 because they had solid draft years in the Liiga, which made them "pro ready". One would think that would transfer well to North America, but it didnt. These are 4 cases proving first hand that Liiga production doesn't prove as much as everyone though

 

[Jag68Sid87]

It's not a new rule at all. It's an old rule, but becomes relevant this season due to how much the draft has been delayed.

OK, so what old rule are we talking about here?

 

[Zub]

Some of you seriously need to start researching these prospects before you judge, comparing Lundell to Lias Andersson is ridicilous, anyone who actually has watched Lundell knows he oozes Hockey IQ and has a wicked shot that he uses very unexpectedly and it is super snappy kindof Kessellesque, to me he seems more like a smaller Kotkaniemi but still different in many ways. I've seen most of his games last season and it's kinda apparent that many here are speaking on him without any real kontext to these ridicilous takes, Lundell will be a good NHL'er i'm pretty confident about that.