C/LW Anton Lundell - IFK Helsinki, Liiga (2020 Draft)

[Zub]

I guess Kakko and Kotkaniemi, Kupari etc have made ppl skeptical of finnish prospects

Ridicilous how people write off players picked at the top at 18-19 if they dont produce like superstars at the get go

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Puljujarvi and Kotkaniemi were rushed at 18 which was the biggest mistake and regardless are still young enough to recover from their struggles. Kupari and Kakko are both too young to make any conclusions.

To be clear, I’m not saying there aren’t other factors at play.

 

[SwedeChristoffer]

OK, so what old rule are we talking about here?

It's in the transfer agreement between the NHL and a large part of the European leagues.

I could go in to more details, but it's boring, so I'll just keep it short.

Essentially a majority of the European leagues has signed a contract with the NHL. The contract allows NHL teams to buy-out players of their contract with the European club if certain conditions are met (so a built-in NHL out-clause).

One of these conditions is the date at which a player signs their ELC contract. The NHL-teams have until 15th of July (or 15th of August for some things) to sign an ELC contract, if a contract is not signed prior to that they are not able to buy-out the player until next season.

Lundell (and most other European players) have a contract with their European team, and since 15th of July (and August) has passed the NHL team can't buy-out the European players. Thus they will to 99% certainty play in Europe for the remainder of the season.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

It's in the transfer agreement between the NHL and a large part of the European leagues.

I could go in to more details, but it's boring, so I'll just keep it short.

Essentially a majority of the European leagues has signed a contract with the NHL. The contract allows NHL teams to buy-out players of their contract with the European club if certain conditions are met (so a built-in NHL out-clause).

One of these conditions is the date at which a player signs their ELC contract. The NHL-teams have until 15th of July (or 15th of August for some things) to sign an ELC contract, if a contract is not signed prior to that they are not able to buy-out the player until next season.

Lundell (and most other European players) have a contract with their European team, and since 15th of July (and August) has passed the NHL team can't buy-out the European players. Thus they will to 99% certainty play in Europe for the remainder of the season.

Thank you. So does that mean Tim Stutzle will not be eligible to play in the NHL for either Ott/LA in 2020-21?

 

[AKL]

Thank you. So does that mean Tim Stutzle will not be eligible to play in the NHL for either Ott/LA in 2020-21?

I know this isn't the answer you're looking for, but Stutzle shouldn't be in the NHL next year regardless.

 

[BusQuets]

Puljujarvi, Kupari, Kotkaniemi, Kakko.

Expecting 16th overall Kupari to make it to NHL as a 18 tear old is insane. Kotkaniemi's rookie season was great as he scored over his projected NHLe. Pulju scored about as expected NHLe. Kakko was only disappointment scoring wise.

I think you are just making up an false argument to support your original argument. Or your own ecpectations were too big.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Expecting 16th overall Kupari to make it to NHL as a 18 tear old is insane. Kotkaniemi's rookie season was great as he scored over his projected NHLe. Pulju scored about as expected NHLe. Kakko was only disappointment scoring wise.

I think you are just making up an false argument to support your original argument. Or your own ecpectations were too big.

Did you even read what I said? I said North America, not NHL.

 

[NJ Fan 12]

Does lower scoring necessarily indicate a deterioration of the lower-scoring league?

There are numerous factors - particularly economics - which have diminished Liiga from the league it was when players like Granlund were developing.

Many top Finnish-born players - if they are not playing in North America - are playing in the KHL, SHL or other European leagues where salaries are higher. Further, the loss of Jokerit and the folding of Espoo Blues further diminished the league. Also, the addition of Mestis clubs while not relegating the last-place teams has created a situation with a handful of strong clubs and several have-nots.

 

[Favster]

Like who ?

Artturi Lehkonen is a good example. Not saying this to support his argument, production drops can happen from any league.

 

[MichaelFarrell]

Is Lundell the most polarizing player in the draft? So many differing opinions. Is this a top 10 or top 20 player? Honestly, I loved the scouting report and would be very happy if the Penguins drafted him at 15 and he turned into a 40-50pt 3rd line center. From what I’ve read he seems like the most NHL ready player after Laf

 

[MaV]

You're missing the point though. They were rushed at 18 because they had solid draft years in the Liiga, which made them "pro ready". One would think that would transfer well to North America, but it didnt. These are 4 cases proving first hand that Liiga production doesn't prove as much as everyone though

Yes, production doesn't matter and you should look behind stats. For example, it should have been very obvious that Puljujärvi was behind Laine and Aho in development and wasn't going to be NHL ready. I claim that you can have players in any other league than NHL producing well and they cannot be on NHL level. On the other hand this doesn't mean that no player from Liiga could be ready to NHL or a good prospect.

 

[bigdog16]

Yes, production doesn't matter and you should look behind stats. For example, it should have been very obvious that Puljujärvi was behind Laine and Aho in development and wasn't going to be NHL ready. I claim that you can have players in any other league than NHL producing well and they cannot be on NHL level. On the other hand this doesn't mean that no player from Liiga could be ready to NHL or a good prospect.

But it wasnt obvious. A large majority thought Puljujarvi was ready. Finnish fans sat here and told me Kakko was the most NHL ready prospect they had seen in the Liiga, and that he was going to destroy the NHL. He was the worst forward on the Rangers this season

 

[Zub]

But it wasnt obvious. A large majority thought Puljujarvi was ready. Finnish fans sat here and told me Kakko was the most NHL ready prospect they had seen in the Liiga, and that he was going to destroy the NHL. He was the worst forward on the Rangers this season

Yeah it just so turned out that he wasn't physically mature enough to score the ways he did in Liiga, he was arguably the best forward for the Rangers these playoffs so you could see why he was drafted where he was.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Is Lundell the most polarizing player in the draft? So many differing opinions. Is this a top 10 or top 20 player? Honestly, I loved the scouting report and would be very happy if the Penguins drafted him at 15 and he turned into a 40-50pt 3rd line center. From what I’ve read he seems like the most NHL ready player after Laf

No, that title belongs to Marco Rossi. If you want evidence of that, just look at his thread on here or the 'Who should the Wings take 4th' on the Detroit forum.

There's a lot of variance to Lundell's rankings and I don't really know why. He's not a poor skater, he plays very well defensively at such a young age and has shwon some offensive flare and an incredible shot. He checks all the boxes of what it takes to become a very good player at the next level. I guess it's people wondering how much better he can become?

 

[bigdog16]

Yeah it just so turned out that he wasn't physically mature enough to score the ways he did in Liiga, he was arguably the best forward for the Rangers these playoffs so you could see why he was drafted where he was.

Although it wasnt a great feat to be the Rangers best forward these playoffs, it did look like he benefitted from the layoff

 

[MaV]

But it wasnt obvious. A large majority thought Puljujarvi was ready. Finnish fans sat here and told me Kakko was the most NHL ready prospect they had seen in the Liiga, and that he was going to destroy the NHL. He was the worst forward on the Rangers this season

Majority of people in the Intenet? That's the problem, this is not a topic that should be based on a popularity contest in the Internet. Anyone can post anything and the loudest voices aren't always more correct than others. I'm not going to move from my opinion of Laine, Aho and Heiskanen being definitely on a different level compared to other Finnish prospects when they left for NHL (during the last decade).

 

[JabbaJabba]

You're missing the point though. They were rushed at 18 because they had solid draft years in the Liiga, which made them "pro ready". One would think that would transfer well to North America, but it didnt. These are 4 cases proving first hand that Liiga production doesn't prove as much as everyone though

You also have to take into consideration adapting to North American style of hockey as it is dumb to assume that if a player did well in one league it automatically means he'll be fine in another league. These are young players who are not ready physically and try to adapt to a different style of hockey. It's the same thing with North American prospects as well except that they are more familiar with the style.

Out of Kakko, Kotkaniemi, Kupari and Puljujärvi didn't Kotkaniemi surprise positively as he spent his first year in Montreal? He scored 34 points in 79 games, that is fine for a first year player. Svechnikov played 82 games and had 37 points and his first season was considered a success. He had also played the previous two years in NA, so he was more accustomed to the style of hockey. Obviously their sophomore years were different, Kotkaniemi was affected by his injury but even without it I think Svechnikov does better. In these playoffs Kotka has shown improvements and I am excited to see what he brings next season.

Kakko and Puljujärvi were obviously overwhelmed in their first year, which was clear very early in the season. Their teams did the mistake of keeping them in the lineup for some reason. Kakko didn't have much time to prepare for the season and it would have been a tough spot for any kid. Like Kotkaniemi, he has shown improvements after the break and I am not worried about his future. Pulju is a different story as there has been some drama going on with him. Hopefully he figures it out.

I am not the biggest fan of Kupari, but he needs time to adjust and grow, and we'll see what he can become. He differs a lot from these other guys as he wasn't a top 5 five pick and these later first rounders often take longer to develop and they fail more likely than top 10 picks. He also spent his D+1 year in Finland as his D year wasn't that impressive. I think that Heponiemi is bigger first year disappointment as he left Liiga with a great regular season record and he already had NA experience. Yet he was very poor in the AHL, probably due to being so small.

I think that people shouldn't look at Liiga production and think that the player is immediately ready for NHL or even for North America. Very few players play in the NHL right after being drafted and even fewer do it successfully. Producing well in Liiga during the draft year is a good sign of potential but it shouldn't be used to judge the readiness of a player to play in the NHL, or necessarily in the AHL. Development takes time and nowadays fans are too impatient to wait for a couple of years 'cos they get overhyped by prospects. It's always exciting when young players come in and do well, but it happens with a few players only.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

No, that title belongs to Marco Rossi. If you want evidence of that, just look at his thread on here or the 'Who should the Wings take 4th' on the Detroit forum.

There's a lot of variance to Lundell's rankings and I don't really know why. He's not a poor skater, he plays very well defensively at such a young age and has shwon some offensive flare and an incredible shot. He checks all the boxes of what it takes to become a very good player at the next level. I guess it's people wondering how much better he can become?

Its odd the 2 top Cs from 4 on at least have such a wide variety of opinions. Both Lundell and Rossi are solid options for teams looking for very close to NHL ready 2C's. Maybe they do more but both players have high floors and very mature games. Not as much flash and dash and cutesy plays but very effective , get the job done players. If Rossi was like an inch and a half taller .. I think the old school NHL scouts would be drooling over him. I think either of these players would be solid adds in the top 10 and coaches are going to love them.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

Is Lundell the most polarizing player in the draft? So many differing opinions. Is this a top 10 or top 20 player? Honestly, I loved the scouting report and would be very happy if the Penguins drafted him at 15 and he turned into a 40-50pt 3rd line center. From what I’ve read he seems like the most NHL ready player after Laf

I am scared of his upside. Yeah it would be great to plug in a young No. 3 center behind Sid and Geno, but I think we need to be a little bolder with the 15th pick. I think we need someone with a higher offensive ceiling because one day 87 and 71 will no longer be superstars. AND, they are already incapable of carrying the team by themselves and need help. Even if it takes an extra year to get to the NHL, we need to draft a center who could eventually become a No. 1 or 2 center. Lundell may or may not have No. 2 center potential. That scares me.

 

[SwedeChristoffer]

Thank you. So does that mean Tim Stutzle will not be eligible to play in the NHL for either Ott/LA in 2020-21?

Most likely, he will play in DEL next season.

Stützle has a contract with Mannheim over next season, and DEL has a transfer agreement with the NHL.
There is a possibility that Mannheim terminates Stützle's contract, that would mean he is free to sign his ELC, but I would be surprised if they did that.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

Most likely, he will play in DEL next season.

Stützle has a contract with Mannheim over next season, and DEL has a transfer agreement with the NHL.
There is a possibility that Mannheim terminates Stützle's contract, that would mean he is free to sign his ELC, but I would be surprised if they did that.

OK, but I thought you said the deadline for him to sign his ELC was July (August) 15???

 

[MuckOG]

I am scared of his upside. Yeah it would be great to plug in a young No. 3 center behind Sid and Geno, but I think we need to be a little bolder with the 15th pick. I think we need someone with a higher offensive ceiling because one day 87 and 71 will no longer be superstars. AND, they are already incapable of carrying the team by themselves and need help. Even if it takes an extra year to get to the NHL, we need to draft a center who could eventually become a No. 1 or 2 center. Lundell may or may not have No. 2 center potential. That scares me.

Who else would be there at 15 that you think has No 1 center potential?

 

[Everblades13]

Is Lundell the most polarizing player in the draft? So many differing opinions. Is this a top 10 or top 20 player? Honestly, I loved the scouting report and would be very happy if the Penguins drafted him at 15 and he turned into a 40-50pt 3rd line center. From what I’ve read he seems like the most NHL ready player after Laf

Yeah I made a similar point on the Panthers board about that. It is interesting because he does seem to be quite polarizing, despite there being a relative consensus on who he is as a player. From what I have read most people agree on his strengths and weaknesses, so I suppose it is more a debate of valuation rather than evaluation.

 

[UnleashRasmus]

He's my favorite prospect in the draft, for the Sabres at #8. His advanced stats look off the charts. He flows with or without the puck and his offense holds up. He's definitely the type of prospect I'm rooting for the Sabres to draft at 8. I'm alright with Lucas Raymond, Marco Rossi as well. As long as it's not Sanderson.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

He's my favorite prospect in the draft, for the Sabres at #8. His advanced stats look off the charts. He flows with or without the puck and his offense holds up. He's definitely the type of prospect I'm rooting for the Sabres to draft at 8. I'm alright with Lucas Raymond, Marco Rossi as well. As long as it's not Sanderson.

I think it's because there's some bad group-think going on here at the HFBoards. Some of the more common instances that I've noticed...
1) A player who is "older" in their draft year (FFS, they're all 17-18 year olds when drafted) is less likely to improve and has way less potential than the "younger" players. There is literally 1 article that states this from almost 10
2) A player who plays a mature and defensively responsible game means they only play that way because they're not really talented.
3) A player having a high floor means he's got a low ceiling. Because we've never seen guys that are projected as being"sure-bet" prospects come into the league and exceed expectations.
4) A player coming from a league that is underscouted/under-represented amongst NHL draftees historically being underrated because they're in that league instead of the SHL/CHL.
5) Every draft year being talked about as "better than 2003". I've been on HFBoards since 2001 or 2002, wrote for sports rags between 2002 and 2006, followed the drafts pretty closely since the early 00's and everytime since 2003, next year's draft comes around there's more than a few people talking about how year X is better than 2003. Every. damn. year.