C/LW Anton Lundell - IFK Helsinki, Liiga (2020 Draft)

[CycloneSweep]

Lundell feels like one of those guys that gets highly rated by scouts but never makes it.

 

[NJ Fan 12]

Lundell feels like one of those guys that gets highly rated by scouts but never makes it.

Actually he appears to be just the opposite. Sound, well-rounded player who will have value even if he doesn't put up elite scoring numbers.

That's a lot different than players who put up 100+ point seasons playing at the junior level but aren't complete enough to compete once they reach pro hockey.

 

[mazmin]

Lundell feels like one of those guys that gets highly rated by scouts but never makes it.

To me he seems like a Euro player who did very well against men who will get passed over in favour of several north american juniors who won’t ever make the NHL.

It happens frequently.

 

[JJTT]

Lundell feels like one of those guys that gets highly rated by scouts but never makes it.

Never makes it? Outside Barkov, Lundell is probably the safest best to make of all Finnish prospects for the past ten years.

 

[Just Linda]

Floor 3c with good instincts on both ends?

Ceiling a few 60 - 70 pt and maybe a couple of selke nominated seasons in the right situation?

Bit of a reach for both imho. If his floor was 3c, ceiling 70pt he'd be a consensus top 10 pick. As of now, I generally see him in mid teens with I think the high being 8th pick, low being end of first round.

A lot of why people like him as a prospect is that he's pretty good across the board without any huge flaws right now. Hes not a stand out in any terms though, perhaps only in compete.

Ceiling of 50 pt, 2C with a floor of solid AHL contributor. Highest odds of making the nhl in a bottom 6 checking role. Some see more to his game but a few people I talked to say he's going to be AHL bound. I like him though, I think he'd be a solid mid 1st pickup.

 

[AKL]

Bit of a reach for both imho. If his floor was 3c, ceiling 70pt he'd be a consensus top 10 pick. As of now, I generally see him in mid teens with I think the high being 8th pick, low being end of first round.

A lot of why people like him as a prospect is that he's pretty good across the board without any huge flaws right now. Hes not a stand out in any terms though, perhaps only in compete.

Ceiling of 50 pt, 2C with a floor of solid AHL contributor. Highest odds of making the nhl in a bottom 6 checking role. Some see more to his game but a few people I talked to say he's going to be AHL bound. I like him though, I think he'd be a solid mid 1st pickup.

If his ceiling was a 50 point 2C he wouldn't be projected in the top half of the first.

No one aims for third liners with a 13th overall pick.

 

[grN1g]

I mean every players rock-bottom bust potential is minor league lol like AKL said I dont think he would be ranked as high as he consistently is if his rock bottom was as likely as you suggest. Or even being just a checking line center or ceiling of 50pts. Way to early for that.

Id agree more with low floor nhl career after a few years of little to no growth.

 

[Just Linda]

If his ceiling was a 50 point 2C he wouldn't be projected in the top half of the first.

No one aims for third liners with a 13th overall pick.

Nolan Patrick was projected by many to have high end second line ceiling and was a consensus top 3 pick.

Scouts understand each draft produces 2-2.5 top line centres and under 5 top 6 centres, a player like Lundell lacks the dynamic abilities to be a top line centre but he's a safer bet to develop into an NHLer and you hope he exceeds expectations along the way.

I don't know what to say, most scouts don't see him having a top line ceiling and I don't either.

 

[AKL]

Nolan Patrick was projected by many to have high end second line ceiling and was a consensus top 3 pick.

Scouts understand each draft produces 2-2.5 top line centres and under 5 top 6 centres, a player like Lundell lacks the dynamic abilities to be a top line centre but he's a safer bet to develop into an NHLer and you hope he exceeds expectations along the way.

I don't know what to say, most scouts don't see him having a top line ceiling and I don't either.

Nolan Patrick has migraine issues that are currently detailing his career.

Lundell would have likely been in consideration with Patrick and Hischier as a top 3 pick in that draft. The reason he's not higher is because of how good this years top 8 is. There is certainly top line upside, albeit on the lower end. Larkin, Dubois, Schenn tier, rather than the Scheifele, Barkov tier.

His floor is certainly one of the highest in the draft, there's a very good chance he'll be an effective bottom six center at worst.

His standout traits are his IQ and positioning, which will enable him to do much more with his limited abilities than another player would. It's not out of the question to say he could be a 60-70 point center during his prime while playing near Selke level defense.

50 point upside? Get the f*** out.

 

[Just Linda]

Nolan Patrick has migraine issues that are currently detailing his career.

Lundell would have likely been in consideration with Patrick and Hischier as a top 3 pick in that draft. The reason he's not higher is because of how good this years top 8 is. There is certainly top line upside, albeit on the lower end. Larkin, Dubois, Schenn tier, rather than the Scheifele, Barkov tier.

His floor is certainly one of the highest in the draft, there's a very good chance he'll be an effective bottom six center at worst.

His standout traits are his IQ and positioning, which will enable him to do much more with his limited abilities than another player would. It's not out of the question to say he could be a 60-70 point center during his prime while playing near Selke level defense.

50 point upside? Get the f*** out.

Without applying hindsight, I'd have him 7th in that draft (ahead of EP and Makar, 2 players I severely misjudged at the time).

You and I agree that he's a high floor player, he cycles and passes too well to not be.

What makes you think he's more?

 

[AKL]

Without applying hindsight, I'd have him 7th in that draft (ahead of EP and Makar, 2 players I severely misjudged at the time).

You and I agree that he's a high floor player, he cycles and passes too well to not be.

What makes you think he's more?

His Liiga numbers in his draft year put him ahead of Kotkaniemi, Rantanen, Aho, as examples. As I said before, his intelligence will allow him to do far more with his tools than another player might. His tools aren't even necessarily weak either. He's excellent at protecting the puck, and he is definitely a very capable passer and shooter, those aspects are by no means going to hold him back. What he lacks is creativity. We've seen players like him excel before. Mikko Koivu, Ryan O'Reilly, they're all very meat and potatoes players. For the most part they're not going to have you on the edge of your seat, but they're very effective. Lundell lacks flash, but he doesn't lack ability to play hockey. His skating could potentially be the one thing that holds him back, but it's far too soon to say it will for sure.

If Lundell was a flashier player with high end skating, people would be calling him another Barkov, and he'd be in the conversation for top 4 with Stutzle and Byfield.

 

[Just Linda]

His Liiga numbers in his draft year put him ahead of Kotkaniemi, Rantanen, Aho, as examples. As I said before, his intelligence will allow him to do far more with his tools than another player might. His tools aren't even necessarily weak either. He's excellent at protecting the puck, and he is definitely a very capable passer and shooter, those aspects are by no means going to hold him back. What he lacks is creativity. We've seen players like him excel before. Mikko Koivu, Ryan O'Reilly, they're all very meat and potatoes players. For the most part they're not going to have you on the edge of your seat, but they're very effective. Lundell lacks flash, but he doesn't lack ability to play hockey. His skating could potentially be the one thing that holds him back, but it's far too soon to say it will for sure.

If Lundell was a flashier player with high end skating, people would be calling him another Barkov, and he'd be in the conversation for top 4 with Stutzle and Byfield.

Id agree with that last point for sure, if he was flashier (dynamic) and skated better, he'd no doubt fit in with the top 5. Heck, if just one more piece of his game reached the next level (shooting for example), he'd be like 7th on my list for sure.

Good player, I have him right around 20th on my list but he's one that I'd be okay with being wrong about.

 

[tsujimoto74]

His Liiga numbers in his draft year put him ahead of Kotkaniemi, Rantanen, Aho, as examples. As I said before, his intelligence will allow him to do far more with his tools than another player might. His tools aren't even necessarily weak either. He's excellent at protecting the puck, and he is definitely a very capable passer and shooter, those aspects are by no means going to hold him back. What he lacks is creativity. We've seen players like him excel before. Mikko Koivu, Ryan O'Reilly, they're all very meat and potatoes players. For the most part they're not going to have you on the edge of your seat, but they're very effective. Lundell lacks flash, but he doesn't lack ability to play hockey. His skating could potentially be the one thing that holds him back, but it's far too soon to say it will for sure.

If Lundell was a flashier player with high end skating, people would be calling him another Barkov, and he'd be in the conversation for top 4 with Stutzle and Byfield.

I hate these kind of arguments. Sure, if Lundell were a much better hockey player, he'd be ranked higher. And if Lafreniere scored half as many points and skated like Jason Alison, he wouldn't be the consensus #1.

 

[DRAGO 18]

Can Lundell step right into the NHL this year?

 

[ijuka]

If Lundell was a flashier player with high end skating, people would be calling him another Barkov, and he'd be in the conversation for top 4 with Stutzle and Byfield.

Lundell is a better skater than Barkov was so this is a curious statement.

Barkov's hands were quite abit better for sure, and he also was more developed physically.

 

[AKL]

Lundell is a better skater than Barkov was so this is a curious statement.

Barkov's hands were quite abit better for sure, and he also was more developed physically.

According to who?

 

[ijuka]

According to who?

How good a skater do you think Barkov was considered to be as a prospect pre-draft?

 

[AKL]

How good a skater do you think Barkov was considered to be as a prospect pre-draft?

Not great, slightly below average, but better than Lundell, whose skating is the difference between being considered a mid-teens prospect and a top 5-8 prospect.

 

[BusQuets]

For me Lundell's skating definitely looks better than pre-draft Barkov's. At least faster.

 

[ijuka]

Not great, slightly below average, but better than Lundell, whose skating is the difference between being considered a mid-teens prospect and a top 5-8 prospect.

Well I disagree, I watched them both in Liiga and I think Lundell's is stronger.

In general Lundell's getting judged ridiculously harshly in my opinion.

Maybe you have such an opinion because nowadays skating's overemphasized so much in comparison to 2013.

 

[AKL]

Well I disagree, I watched them both in Liiga and I think Lundell's is stronger.

In general Lundell's getting judged ridiculously harshly in my opinion.

Maybe you have such an opinion because nowadays skating's overemphasized so much in comparison to 2013.

It's not overemphasized, it's extremely important.

 

[ijuka]

It's not overemphasized, it's extremely important.

Tell that to Mike McLeod.

It's quite overemphasized indeed. Especially at draft.

Common wisdom was that skating can be improved by significant amounts after draft - which it can - and there's numerous examples of such being the case. How many recent draft misses were due to an incorrect value put to skating? I'd say quite a few. Perhaps the only one causing more misses is emphasis on stuff like "size" and "character".

For example, Alex Barkov was a weak skater. Scored 96 points in NHL - doesn't seem to hinder him. Mikko Rantanen was a weak skater. Has scored 87 points - doesn't seem to hinder him. Patrik Laine was an even weaker skater than either. Well, it's hindered him but he's still done fine.

It's nothing like something such as "hockey IQ", which being high essentially grants a free ticket to NHL, and is a far more important ability overall. However, it's not "sexy". I guess Pronman put it best when he said he's been watching Lundell for over 3 years and still doesn't understand him at all as a player, saying his skill and ability's barely above average and skating just about average. That's when you probably need to stop and think about what actually causes a positive impact for one's games.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

For me Lundell's skating definitely looks better than pre-draft Barkov's. At least faster.

He’s inelegant, but not slow. That can be cleaned up. He probably got away with bad habits because the rest of his game has always been so advanced.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Andersson was drafted as a center. Projected by nearly everyone as a center. Only after he couldn't hack it at center has there been widespread suggestions that he could instead play wing.

And the difference between Liiga/SHL explains how Lundell can score 19 points in 38 games in his 17 year old season as a late birthday. He wouldn't be able to do that in SHL, which is a superior league. Late birthdays are also judged mostly on their 18 year old seasons for where they get drafted.

Nearly everyone projected Lias Andersson as a center?

No way.

He played tons of wing in Sweden even before the draft. I sure saw him as an NHL winger.

And Lundell played more than 1.5 times as many pro games in Finland at age 17 than Andersson did in Sweden. Lundell's junior record is better than Andersson.

Andersson had ZERO points in 22 games as a 17 year old in SHL. Lundell in his 17 year old season: 19 points in 38 games in Liiga.

No, that's not a better season by Andersson.

If you think 17-year-old (and under) success isn't a tool of comparison, I strongly disagree.

Also, how many faceoffs did Andersson take in the SHL? Lundell was 53% as an 18-year old playing fully center.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I think you are using old NHLe values. Liiga has deteriorated quite a bit with regards to the SHL in recent years.

In the tweet below you can see more recent conversion numbers between Liiga and the SHL.



Using those values it can be seen that league-adjusted Lias scored a bit more than Lundell.

Does lower scoring necessarily indicate a deterioration of the lower-scoring league?