C Elias Pettersson - Timra IK, Allsvenskan (2017, 5th, VAN)

[ulvvf]

Hold on, Forsberg was 17 throughout his draft year, turned 18 in August 2012.

Pettersson turned 18 over the weekend.

It's different.

Then why did Matthews get drafted before Laine? Laine outpreformed Matthews when they faced eachtother internationally and he was younger?

 

[ulvvf]

I know, but he scored 33p in his 18 yo year, which is a better comparison. Either way what Pettersson is doing is really impressive and he should go early in the draft if he keeps this up, probably even contend for #1.

I do not agree, this is their working year, better comparsion than looking at calender year. Then there will always be age difference between players no matter how you do it, but in most cases I think it is very mental, when it says a different year it feels like it is one year between them. So even if it would only be 3-4 months between, you would probably still hear that age argument, but you basically never hear it when a player is born january-march compare to a player born september, not to the same degree at least.

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

Doesn't really matter too much in this instance though since Pettersson is outperforming both Forsbergs draft year and his draft +1 year right now by quite a margin. His hockey IQ is just off the charts high.

 

[4thline]

Comparing year to year statistically ignoring all other factors he looks to be around Forsberg's level, Nylander a half step ahead of both.

YOB is generally speaking the deciding factor on when players can play where. Months within year is quibbling. Who started playing first as a child? Who got to go to more summer camps? Who got a physical trainer first? Who is genetically predisposed to developing faster? All would completely confund any validity to any affect of absolute age within year, but YOB cancels all that out. Snapshot surface level analysis of where players were within their countries given development system.

U-17
SuperElit
Petterson 13 in 6 (2.16) majority of season in J18
Forsberg 40 in 36 (1.11)
Nylander 43 in 27 (1.59)

U-18-
Alvenskan
Petterson 9 in 25 (.36
Forsberg 17 in 43 (.40)
W. Nylander 27 in 35 (.77)
Lindholm 0 in 12 (SHL) Majority of Season in SuperElit

u18 wc
Forsberg 7 in 6 (1.17)
Nylander 16 in 7 (2.29)
Petterson 8 in 7 (1.14)
Lindholm 3 in 4 (.75)

Forsberg WJC 1 in 6


U-19
Sweden
Forsberg- 33 in 38 (.87) (Allvenskan)
Nylander- 20 in 21 (.95) (SHL) (0.86) 32 in 37 (AHL)
Lindholm- 30 in 48 (.625) (SHL)
Petterson 20 in 19 (1.05) (Alvenskan)

WJC
Forsberg 5 in 6
Nylander 10 in 7
Lindholm 4 in 6
Petterson ND

 

[ulvvf]

Comparing year to year statistically ignoring all other factors he looks to be around Forsberg's level, Nylander a half step ahead of both.

YOB is generally speaking the deciding factor on when players can play where. Months within year is quibbling. Who started playing first as a child? Who got to go to more summer camps? Who got a physical trainer first? Who is genetically predisposed to developing faster? All would completely confund any validity to any affect of absolute age within year, but YOB cancels all that out. Snapshot surface level analysis of where players were within their countries given development system.

U-17
SuperElit
Petterson 13 in 6 (2.16) majority of season in J18
Forsberg 40 in 36 (1.11)
Nylander 43 in 27 (1.59)

U-18-
Alvenskan
Petterson 9 in 25 (.36
Forsberg 17 in 43 (.40)
W. Nylander 27 in 35 (.77)
Lindholm 0 in 12 (SHL) Majority of Season in SuperElit

u18 wc
Forsberg 7 in 6 (1.17)
Nylander 16 in 7 (2.29)
Petterson 8 in 7 (1.14)
Lindholm 3 in 4 (.75)

Forsberg WJC 1 in 6


U-19
Sweden
Forsberg- 33 in 38 (.87) (Allvenskan)
Nylander- 20 in 21 (.95) (SHL) (0.86) 32 in 37 (AHL)
Lindholm- 30 in 48 (.625) (SHL)
Petterson 20 in 19 (1.05) (Alvenskan)

WJC
Forsberg 5 in 6
Nylander 10 in 7
Lindholm 4 in 6
Petterson ND

Basically only when it comes to national team.

If you go by calender year it will give the early born a big advandge, much more then if you would go with draft year. The late born will missout a summer training etc, and you know a lot can happen then at that age. Many young player come out of the summer training as a new player.

18 out of the 20 best historically U17 season in superelit, was born, "early". The 2 born late was the sedins. Look at best U18 season in shl, 18 out of 20 best early born, the 2 late born, Sedin and A Larsson, while many of the early born was also here medicore players. Look at allsvenskan, best U18 season there, 17 out of 20 best is born early, among the 3 late, you find for example Pettersson.

Now you can say that more are born on the right side of the year, so it is expected that there are more, but still. Plus it is basically only special talents among the late born that break into there, while among the early born it is very mixed. Take out special talents like sedins, and it is almost 100% early born.

Do we see that older get the same advandage when you compare in draft year instead of calender year? I would say no, not even close. This is their working year, that is the most relevant. That is when the hockey year starts, no matter what is says on the calender.

When it comes to UXX national team it should go by calender year, because it is easier to understand and tradition, but it is maybe not the most fair.

 

[93LEAFS]

Basically only when it comes to national team.

If you go by calender year it will give the early born a big advandge, much more then if you would go with draft year. The late born will missout a summer training etc, and you know a lot can happen then at that age. Many young player come out of the summer training as a new player.

18 out of the 20 best historically U17 season in superelit, was born, "early". The 2 born late was the sedins. Look at best U18 season in shl, 18 out of 20 best early born, the 2 late born, Sedin and A Larsson, while many of the early born was also here medicore players. Look at allsvenskan, best U18 season there, 17 out of 20 best is born early, among the 3 late, you find for example Pettersson.

Now you can say that more are born on the right side of the year, so it is expected that there are more, but still. Plus it is basically only special talents among the late born that break into there, while among the early born it is very mixed. Take out special talents like sedins, and it is almost 100% early born.

Do we see that older get the same advandage when you compare in draft year instead of calender year? I would say no, not even close. This is their working year, that is the most relevant. That is when the hockey year starts, no matter what is says on the calender.

When it comes to UXX national team it should go by calender year, because it is easier to understand and tradition, but it is maybe not the most fair.

When it comes to late-borns from the CHL (who always get the extra season because the entrance into the CHL is age based set by the Jan 1st -Dec 31st, same with the USHL now) there is a clear divide. While it rarely affects the expected return at the very top of the draft (the first 2 to 3 picks) there is a notable gap that starts to noticeably appear around 7OA that levels out to a sizeable gap in the 40's). I've been told it also exists in NCAA kids and Euro's to a stronger extent, but I have never seen an in-depth analytical study into it.

Also, you only account for the bias in one way in your quick research. What happens if we go by the draft calendar? Is the discrepancy the same? bigger? or less?

 

[4thline]

Basically only when it comes to national team.

If you go by calender year it will give the early born a big advandge, much more then if you would go with draft year. The late born will missout a summer training etc, and you know a lot can happen then at that age. Many young player come out of the summer training as a new player.

Now you can say that more are born on the right side of the year, so it is expected that there are more, but still. Plus it is basically only special talents among the late born that break into there, while among the early born it is very mixed. Take out special talents like sedins, and it is almost 100% early born.

Do we see that older get the same advandage when you compare in draft year instead of calender year? I would say no, not even close. This is their working year, that is the most relevant. That is when the hockey year starts, no matter what is says on the calender.

When it comes to UXX national team it should go by calender year, because it is easier to understand and tradition, but it is maybe not the most fair.

It gives them an advantage when they are young, not once you start looking at performances at 17,18, 19. Those discrepancies you mentioned are because of the RAE (relative age effect) at younger ages).

As children being born younger in the year places them at a disadvantage in YOB decided age groups, and acts as a screen resulting in a disproportionate % of the players that make it to the to the elite level being born earlier in the year. But the younger players that make it through are not at a disadvantage.

You mention the "working year", that works contrary to your point. YOB decides how many "working years" a player has at a meaningful level. The Sept 15 draft cut off is a legal thing, not a development thing. Not being able to be drafted doesn't suddenly make a late birthday lose a year of meaningful hockey experience. The summer of development that a late birthday would lose isn't at this end, it would be when they were a child, which unless you're going to go back and track when each player started is useless.

This is going off topic, but comparing a U-19 year to recent players U-18's citing "draft year" is asking to get burnt. They should be better, they've had a year more experience.
However, in the specific case of Petterson that still tracks as a slam dunk top-10 pick.

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

Just had a great game vs Södertälje, topped it off with a goal.

 

[vippe]

He's the real deal. I am very very impressed with him, going to be interesting to see how he performs in the WJC.

 

[Lexus]

Just had a great game vs Södertälje, topped it off with a goal.

Here's the goal.

 

[JimboA]

Not the first time you see those moves from him.

... and not the last time.

 

[Willy Stylez]

He's the real deal, play him with Alex Nylander pleas.

 

[ulvvf]

He's the real deal, play him with Alex Nylander pleas.

The Grundström - Andersson - Pettersson line was really dominating in the last U20 tournament a few weeks ago, so I would absolutly continue with that line. But if it do not work, then sure why not move him to the Nylander line instead.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

Gotta be a top 5 pick at least right?

 

[Lexus]

ELIAS TODAY (1+1), 4-2 W.

Beauty of a goal... and I love the assist.

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

I think he's the best player in this draft class.

 

[Willy Stylez]

The Grundström - Andersson - Pettersson line was really dominating in the last U20 tournament a few weeks ago, so I would absolutly continue with that line. But if it do not work, then sure why not move him to the Nylander line instead.

Yeah they where great last tournament, really like that line's game.
But.. I will still try Elias with Alex. If they don't work, swith back to that line.

 

[Vikke]

He's so damn skilled. Going to watch him live on Friday.

 

[joe89]

So he co-leads the scoring race in Allsvenskan after almost half the season.

 

[Mauler]

He just won the match against Vita Hästen after shootouts

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

So slick.

 

[Lexus]

So slick.

THAT IS SLICK.

 

[Beninho*]

Gotta say that this draft is shaping up to be extremely interesting, so many people were saying it's gonna be a down year for prospects but I see so many intriguing players in this draft. This kid is extremely impressive and I look forward to seeing what he does at te wjc

 

[Willy Stylez]

Swedish Datsyuk

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

I think he's the best player in this draft class.

He's over a PPG and leading a men's league in his draft year, in a weak draft. Yes.