C Connor McDavid - Erie Otters, OHL (2015 Draft)
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Gigantor The Goalie
Speak for the Goalies
It's a long season on a bad team, him slowing down isn't too shocking. I don't expect CHL Player of the Year next year but in the neighborhood of 90 points seems reasonable.
If we are only expecting him to get 90 points next year, he is far, far from being close to a Crosby-type prospect.
JackHughes86
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Franck
eltiT resU motsuC
Crosby put up his numbers playing in what was a less talented and much more offensive-minded QMJHL. 90 points on a bad team in the OHL as a 16-year-old would be a massive achievement.
- Apr 27, 2005
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I think you are underestimating how much an extra season and a full summer break helps these young kids. This season definitely wore on the kid, and his body isn't yet developed to the level it needs to be to be able to handle the rigors of a full season. He'll get in the gym this offseason, and I imagine he'll come out flying next season, with a better understanding of what to expect.
I don't think 110 points is out of the question, when you consider this kids skillset.
YEGJuniorFan
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I think a lot of it has to do with a 15 year old having to play a 72 game schedule, he probably became too tired physically. As he gets stronger he will put up more points. I am guessing 90-100 points as a 16 year old. 120 as a 17yo.
He played more games last year I'm pretty sure with his GTHL schedule + tournies. Physicality of 19 and 20 year olds is a different beast than 15 year olds though.
Breakfast of Champs
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- Apr 15, 2007
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I remember earlier in the season people were talking about Travis Konecny going 1st overall. If Sean Day is granted exceptional status Erie would then get the "regular" 1st overall player.
Not sure if Konecny is still at the top or not, though.
jigglysquishy
Registered User
That's a pretty low expectation. RNH and Hall had 106 points. Drouin will finish somewhere around 115.
McDavid is supposed to be the next Crosby. 120 points isn't even close.
Konecny is still likely the top '97 after Day. There's rumours that Ottawa loves Konecny enough to take him first even if Day enters but it was Kilrea who called Day the best 14 year old he's ever seen so I would think they would take Day in the end. Konecny would be some nice help for McDavid. Connor Brown has turned out to be pretty good and Dane Fox is a good player who would be an OA next year.
Hall was 18 years old in his third season when he scored 106 and he played his entire career on a stacked team. Drouin scored 29 points in 33 games at 16, McDavid has 60 in 58 as a 15 year old. Drouin's PPG has more than doubled this season also on a stacked team. McDavid certainly could take that type of step, my 90 point prediction is definitely a conservative one. Tavares had 77 points at 15, then 134 at 16. In all honestly I'm probably too conservative, 100-110 would be better. He could take a Drouin/Tavares type leap and even get into the 120s but that would require some help from his teammates and at this point Sherry Bassin is just incompetent as a GM.
Tavares put up 134 points in his second year in the OHL. Crosby put up 135 points (albeit in the Q) in his first year, and he just turned 16 when that season started.
McDavid turned 16 two months ago and he's currently producing half as much as what Crosby did back then. Of course, this is unfair as it is the middle of the season and I'm sure McDavid is worn down, plus he is on a worse team, in a tougher league. From what I've watched on him, he is very talented and combines tenacity with vision and great stick skills.
But he still isn't coming close to Crosby's production, and I'm not sure if we should be so quick to call him the best prospect since Crosby, especially with Tavares' great junior career.
Idk if Werenski wants to play in the OHL or not but he would probably go 2nd after Day. If not Werenski then probably Chubby Stephens or Strome.
It depends if they can get a good player to report.
Having McDavid should help their case, but their lack of progress still makes them an undesirable place to report.
They need pretty much everything but need to try to find players that not only have skill, but character.
Who they end up choosing is a mystery until closer to the draft, though.
They could go for Travis Konecny, an undersized forward with blazing speed, or Dylan Strome (Ryan's brother), a big cerebral center.
Defenseman Matt Spencer is probably the best fit given their lack of a standout defenseman and isn't a reach, as it is argued by some that he's the best player in Ontario this season.
I have liked what I've seen from him a lot.
Not only is scouting based on statistics questionable, comparing between leagues makes it worse and using different eras just adds to it.
If you're just going to look at his statline and compare it to past players, McDavid will probably disappoint you.
Scoring is now lower than it was almost a decade ago.
When someone puts in the work and creates equivalencies based on percentage of total scoring, you'll likely see that he's right up there that he's "not coming close to".
So he has tied the Erie Otters rookie scoring record and has 3 more games to beat it. What a player.
UsernameWasTaken
Let's Go Hawks!
I agree with that. I'm not really interested in comparisons until he's in his draft year.
I think people's expectations of McDavid can be a little lofty - there were people on this board predicting he'd get more than 100 pts this year - even though that was incredibly unlikely (and in the end he hasn't come close to that).
The kid has tons of skill and talent, but man.. I've heard from a bunch of people that he's one of the cockiest players they've ever spoken to... hopefully it's just a youth thing and it'll pass cuz that's not the kind of personality I want in a team. He is only 15 and has time to mature.
Take it with a grain of salt.
15 and 16 year olds and their parents are often jealous of players of his ilk.
Anyways:
http://twitter.com/TPS_Guy/status/311304992277557248
HockeySauce
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- Jan 26, 2011
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Most kids of McDavid's talent level are cocky. It is what it is. He'll come around and personally, in the games I saw of him this year, he didn't seem to go over-the-top with his goal celebrations or did a lot of chriping.
Especially last year, when you're a 14-year-old dominating kids a year older than you, you're going to be a little cocky at least, because you know he was getting his share of abuse from opposing players (physically and verbally).
Especially last year, when you're a 14-year-old dominating kids a year older than you, you're going to be a little cocky at least, because you know he was getting his share of abuse from opposing players (physically and verbally).
jigglysquishy
Registered User
I always take stories about cocky kids with a grain of salt. I remember growing up playing with an absolute monster of a kid. 6'3, 210 at 14 who had it all talent wise (he likely would have been a mid-level NHL player if not for injuries). Super nice guy. Quiet. Down to earth. Great teammate.
A lot of parents hated him and said he was cocky. Your hockey Dads want their kid to be the best. And they'll say anything to bring the best down
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