In terms of comparisons to losing Williams, Mojo and Schmidt - yes, it was a big departure. From a leadership/presence point of view, we lost Williams but not Oshie, Orpik or Beagle. Today, a greater number of those pillars are gone. Will they be replaced? Quite possibly. But team chemistry is one of the things the team has excelled at since 2016, and I’m just pointing out the risk that so many changes over two years will have significantly altered that chemistry.
But people also forget how much we struggled our way through most of the 17/18 regular season, with Orpik playing big minutes, a Chorney-Ness opening night third pairing, and Djoos and Bowey fighting to stay in the lineup through to the end of the playoffs. The team did incredibly well finding Kempny, and that was a game changer, but we can’t rely on them finding those gems. It wasn’t just the Caps pro scouting team and coaching staff’s hard work and skill that pulled that off - it also relied on the Hawks utterly failing to see what they had in him. We were, arguably, one moment of competence by the Hawks away from early playoff defeat.
Am I saying it can’t be done again? Of course not. Am I saying it won’t happen? Absolutely not. *But* overall, I’d say the caps were in a better position then than they are now. Mojo and Williams’ departures only worked because we had talented under-used guys who were finally ready to become meaningful top-6 fixtures - Wilson and Vrana - without removing anyone from the third line (Burky and Connolly).
This time around we’d be subtracting 10 and 65 without having a top forward prospect or gem-trapped-on-the-fourth-line to replace them with. Eller has struggled to find any kind of scoring touch when playing for long periods away from Connolly. Hagelin has some great - maybe elite - skills, just like Eller, but both of them lack a scoring touch without someone else to drive that line. At best, we find one UFA goal scorer to replace the two we’re losing - but GMBM’s comments today about looking for a ‘two way player’ makes me wonder whether they realise how the bottom six currently lacks a single goal scorer, and if we might see an Eller/Hagelin 2.0 appear to give us a defensively strong, high possession third line that cannot score.
If you’re going to talk to me about the cap forcing people out, explain why we signed Hags? He’s good at what he does, no doubt, and we need what he does. But he’s expensive for what he does, and we’ve never been prepared to spend that kind of money on an elite PKer before.
The other crucial difference between 2017-2018 and 2019-2020 turnovers is coaching. I’m not going to make a Trotz v Reirden argument (though that may be appropriate), but rather a skepticism that a Reid Cashman can turn Jensen and Gudas into the players we need them to be in the same way TR was able to with Niskanen, Kempny and the rookies. The same goes for forwards - look at how much Stephenson regressed between Lambert leaving and Scott Arniel entering.
In other words, I’m not disputing that roster turnover isn’t inevitable, or that we won’t end up with weaknesses whatever hard decisions are made. But when people talk about this being a roster that’s only a year away from winning a cup, it’s worth remembering how different it’s becoming, and that there’s a real risk that by replacing guys who excelled in their roles (e.g. 2017-2018 Niskanen, Beagle, Orpik, Connelly) with guys who will, hopefully, be cheaper and competent (Hagelin, Dowd, Jensen, Gudas, incoming UFA) we will have lost the edge that gave us a cup. And, as things stand, we lack any semblance of depth, at least up front. TR and company really will have to step their game up considerably.
