Just for argument sake, Looking at my trade proposal, What if you hit something really good at pick 3, and Mittelstadt works out very well. At that point Dahlin for two very good top six players seems pretty nice!
Using your argument, On a flip side, What if Dahlin turns out to be Karlsson, and Mittelstadt turns out to be Patrice Bergeron, and the third overall pick turns out to be a James Van Riemsdyk, Would you do that trade??
Makes you think....
Yeah, it could work out but it's a big, big risk for that GM. Say a GM traded McDavid for 3rd that year and a similar player/pick to Mittlestadt. Let's say they took Marner at 3OA over Strome since that's a more favorable pick, then instead of Mittlestadt it was a similar pick in 2016, let's say Alex Nylander who was taken at 8 the year before, or any of the forwards right after him - Brown, Jost, McLeod, Kunin, etc
MvDavid for Marner and Nylander/Brown/Jost/McLeod/Kunin? Pretty bad loss.
If we want to go 100% favorable with hindsight on both picks, McDavid for Werenski and Keller? Certainly a lot closer to even, but again that's with hindsight.
And of course it could be as bad as McDavid for Strome and Nylander/Brown/Jost/McLeod/Kunin which would maybe get a GM fired and make him a historic laughing stock.
Would I do Karlsson for JVR and Bergeron? I don't think so if we're talking about getting them all around the start of their careers. A nearly ppg d-man is worth more to me than an excellent 2-way 1C and a solid scoring winger.
I guess my main point is there's a lot of risk in something like that when the 1OA is as clear and as hyped as Dahlin and I'm not sure many GM's would be comfortable taking that kind of risk when they could go with the safe pick and even if it doesn't work out nobody will really blame them for taking Dahlin at 1OA.