Speculation: Buffalo's #3OA + x for Dahlin

[Jared Dunn]

Not that i would know, but if the Habs won the lottery...they may think about ROR+3OA.

I think Dahlin is as much of a need, or close to it, as a 1C.

You're honestly right and they'd probably do it but I wouldn't like it

 

[LongWayDown37]

Realistically whoever is picking Dahlin should be demanding a price that no team will ever pay.

Put it this way, I want Dahlin badly... I probably wouldn't pay Larkin + 5th for Dahlin.

No disrespect to a good player like Larkin, but I think you're kinda crazy not to do that deal.

 

[haveandare]

I think maybe something like Buffalo 1st, Mittelstadt, and a 4th might do it.

In a vacuum maybe, but no GM would do that. There's a decent chance Dahlin becomes a Karlsson tier player and that possiblity is known and established right now. If a GM moves him and he does become that, they're going to look bad - potential to the point of losing their job. Something like Boqvist/Zadina/Wahlstrom and Mittelstadt is not even close to making that okay if Dahlin comes close to his ceiling.

 

[IPreferPi]

If the Yotes win the 1OA and Buffalo 2/3OA, I'd consider ROR + Svechnikov/Zadina for Dahlin. To start.

 

[Mrb1p]

If you want Dahlin you better offer Eichel.

 

[varano]

In a vacuum maybe, but no GM would do that. There's a decent chance Dahlin becomes a Karlsson tier player and that possiblity is known and established right now. If a GM moves him and he does become that, they're going to look bad - potential to the point of losing their job. Something like Boqvist/Zadina/Wahlstrom and Mittelstadt is not even close to making that okay if Dahlin comes close to his ceiling.

Just for argument sake, Looking at my trade proposal, What if you hit something really good at pick 3, and Mittelstadt works out very well. At that point Dahlin for two very good top six players seems pretty nice!

Using your argument, On a flip side, What if Dahlin turns out to be Karlsson, and Mittelstadt turns out to be Patrice Bergeron, and the third overall pick turns out to be a James Van Riemsdyk, Would you do that trade??

Makes you think....

 

[varano]

If the Yotes win the 1OA and Buffalo 2/3OA, I'd consider ROR + Svechnikov/Zadina for Dahlin. To start.

This is my point right here...

 

[WingsMJN2965]

No disrespect to a good player like Larkin, but I think you're kinda crazy not to do that deal.

Maybe. I'm extremely high on him though after this year. Had a very good season on a trash team. The only thing left to be desired was his goal scoring, which really started to come on in the last 15 games or so. He's become responsible defensively while still putting up the offensive numbers. Mantha is good, but give him a winger like Svechnikov/Zadina/Tkachuk (Just examples) and what can he do?

Honestly, if he ends up being a two way forward between the level of ROR and the level of Bergeron, I think he's very difficult to let go of. And no I'm not saying I think he'll be the next Bergeron, but I honestly think he's on track to be better than ROR so I'm giving a range.

 

[haveandare]

Just for argument sake, Looking at my trade proposal, What if you hit something really good at pick 3, and Mittelstadt works out very well. At that point Dahlin for two very good top six players seems pretty nice!

Using your argument, On a flip side, What if Dahlin turns out to be Karlsson, and Mittelstadt turns out to be Patrice Bergeron, and the third overall pick turns out to be a James Van Riemsdyk, Would you do that trade??

Makes you think....

Yeah, it could work out but it's a big, big risk for that GM. Say a GM traded McDavid for 3rd that year and a similar player/pick to Mittlestadt. Let's say they took Marner at 3OA over Strome since that's a more favorable pick, then instead of Mittlestadt it was a similar pick in 2016, let's say Alex Nylander who was taken at 8 the year before, or any of the forwards right after him - Brown, Jost, McLeod, Kunin, etc

MvDavid for Marner and Nylander/Brown/Jost/McLeod/Kunin? Pretty bad loss.

If we want to go 100% favorable with hindsight on both picks, McDavid for Werenski and Keller? Certainly a lot closer to even, but again that's with hindsight.

And of course it could be as bad as McDavid for Strome and Nylander/Brown/Jost/McLeod/Kunin which would maybe get a GM fired and make him a historic laughing stock.

Would I do Karlsson for JVR and Bergeron? I don't think so if we're talking about getting them all around the start of their careers. A nearly ppg d-man is worth more to me than an excellent 2-way 1C and a solid scoring winger.

I guess my main point is there's a lot of risk in something like that when the 1OA is as clear and as hyped as Dahlin and I'm not sure many GM's would be comfortable taking that kind of risk when they could go with the safe pick and even if it doesn't work out nobody will really blame them for taking Dahlin at 1OA.

 

[varano]

Yeah, it could work out but it's a big, big risk for that GM. Say a GM traded McDavid for 3rd that year and a similar player/pick to Mittlestadt. Let's say they took Marner at 3OA over Strome since that's a more favorable pick, then instead of Mittlestadt it was a similar pick in 2016, let's say Alex Nylander who was taken at 8 the year before, or any of the forwards right after him - Brown, Jost, McLeod, Kunin, etc

MvDavid for Marner and Nylander/Brown/Jost/McLeod/Kunin? Pretty bad loss.

If we want to go 100% favorable with hindsight on both picks, McDavid for Werenski and Keller? Certainly a lot closer to even, but again that's with hindsight.

And of course it could be as bad as McDavid for Strome and Nylander/Brown/Jost/McLeod/Kunin which would maybe get a GM fired and make him a historic laughing stock.

Would I do Karlsson for JVR and Bergeron? I don't think so if we're talking about getting them all around the start of their careers. A nearly ppg d-man is worth more to me than an excellent 2-way 1C and a solid scoring winger.

I guess my main point is there's a lot of risk in something like that when the 1OA is as clear and as hyped as Dahlin and I'm not sure many GM's would be comfortable taking that kind of risk when they could go with the safe pick and even if it doesn't work out nobody will really blame them for taking Dahlin at 1OA.

But again, thats assuming that Dahlin has zero hiccups.

What would happen if he goes to a team that destroys his development? Theres what ifs in every situation that involves prospects and picks which is why I completely disagree with trading a guy like Eichel where you know what you're getting.

 

[haveandare]

But again, thats assuming that Dahlin has zero hiccups.

What would happen if he goes to a team that destroys his development? Theres what ifs in every situation that involves prospects and picks which is why I completely disagree with trading a guy like Eichel where you know what you're getting.

That's kind of what I mean though. Even if he has hiccups or doesn't develop well, nobody is going to blame any GM for keeping that pick and picking him at 1OA when everyone has agreed thats where he should go and that he has an insane ceiling for a year or more. Hell, nobody really even blames the Oilers for taking Yak or RNH and they were less sure things in their years.

In terms of the GM's own self preservation, it's very risky to move the Dahlin pick for pretty much anything short of a current proven superstar, and teams would be silly to move a guy like that for a pick even one as good as this years 1OA.

 

[varano]

That's kind of what I mean though. Even if he has hiccups or doesn't develop well, nobody is going to blame any GM for keeping that pick and picking him at 1OA when everyone has agreed thats where he should go and that he has an insane ceiling for a year or more. Hell, nobody really even blames the Oilers for taking Yak or RNH and they were less sure things in their years.

In terms of the GM's own self preservation, it's very risky to move the Dahlin pick for pretty much anything short of a current proven superstar, and teams would be silly to move a guy like that for a pick even one as good as this years 1OA.

Fair enough. Good discussion

 

[haveandare]

Fair enough. Good discussion

You too.

Overall, I think you're right in that its possible a deal like that could work out for the team moving the pick, but I think most GMs are too risk averse to try it and that's mostly understandable.

 

[phlocky]

Playing the hypothetical game, let's say that the Flyers lost to the Rangers on Saturday, the Panthers jump us and we miss the playoffs with the #15 pick. Now, say we win the lottery and get the #1 pick. There is no way I trade Dahlin for the #2/3 plus whatever the other team is adding and the Flyers are one the very few teams that DON'T need Dahlin. If we had Dahlin in our pockets I'd look to trade the Blues pick (#14), Sanheim, every other pick we have this year plus our 1st next year to try and pry the #2/3 pick from whomever ends up with them. Even though we don't NEED Dahlin, we trade other prospects before we move him.

THAT'S HOW VALUABLE THAT PICK IS!!!

 

[McYoungGuns]

You are thinking too realistically. Trades aren't done like that for franchise players. First of all, while RoR is locked up, his salary is huge and will affect the value of the trade. Adding a third is useless to the receiving team as they are giving up an entire career of a franchise player for a half way to retirement player and a 3rd which has the likelyhood of not having a career at all.

Reinhart has about the same value (as RoR) only because he is good and can be a really good layer, but he isn't a franchise player and again, the 3rd is not of great value.

It would most likely be Reinhart + Risto + your 1st and a 2nd and maybe a B prospect -> This is most likely what it would take and even then you are probably going to get a no.

I think he means the 3rd overall bud

 

[Roof Daddy]

If the Oil win 1st OA, I'd do this if the Sabres were willing.

To BUF: 1st OA, Sekera (cap dump)

To EDM: 3rd OA, Ristolainen

Would require Sekera to waive though.

 

[2020 Cup Champions]

I believe the rumor around the offer Yzerman made for the 1OA that Ekblad was taken with started with Drouin or Vasilevskiy (pre-holdout Drouin). The Flyers apparently were also close with an offer that started with Brayden Schenn, but Tallon wanted Simmonds. The info I found beyond that (in about 5 minutes of searching) seems wholly speculatory (the bits about Drouin, Vasi, and I think Simmonds as well seem to have been quoted straight from the mouths of the GMs). Make of that what you will.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

I think maybe something like Buffalo 1st, Mittelstadt, and a 4th might do it.

Eh, if Ottawa wins lottery (2nd best odds), they'd probably demand Eichel, Buffalo's 1st, and Mittelstadt lol.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

If the Oil win 1st OA, I'd do this if the Sabres were willing.

To BUF: 1st OA, Sekera (cap dump)

To EDM: 3rd OA, Ristolainen

Would require Sekera to waive though.

That's stupid, Dahlin is a generation Dman you don't trade that for that package.

 

[threeVo]

Eh, if Ottawa wins lottery (2nd best odds), they'd probably demand Eichel, Buffalo's 1st, and Mittelstadt lol.

Yea. No.

 

[rockinghockey]

You are thinking too realistically. Trades aren't done like that for franchise players. First of all, while RoR is locked up, his salary is huge and will affect the value of the trade. Adding a third is useless to the receiving team as they are giving up an entire career of a franchise player for a half way to retirement player and a 3rd which has the likelyhood of not having a career at all.

Reinhart has about the same value (as RoR) only because he is good and can be a really good layer, but he isn't a franchise player and again, the 3rd is not of great value.

It would most likely be Reinhart + Risto + your 1st and a 2nd and maybe a B prospect -> This is most likely what it would take and even then you are probably going to get a no.

That is just a way over payment only on HF people think about that much goi g back for 1 player

 

[Hatter of the Beach]

Hard thread, as whoever trades away the #1 pick is probably going to want what the other team considers to be an overpayment.
Still, I think a deal of

3rd Overall (Zadina)
Casey Middlestadt
Sam Reinhart

for

Dahlin

Could work, though doubt Buff does it.

 

[brock0791]

O'Reilly and 3rd OA only makes sense if one of the playoff bubble teams like Calgary or Dallas luck out in the lottery and think Dahlen still needs 2 years before playing 22-25 minutes a games... even then it's a tough sell

 

[Boxscore]

I have this weird feeling Montreal is going to win the lottery. And they won't be moving the Dahlin pick.

 

[StatisticsAddict99]

Dahlin is the best Defensive prospect that has been seen in a long time, he is probably more valuable than Matthews and Eichel alone(as he is in the same atmosphere as skill but playing a position that’s harder to find with that sort of talent).

Eichel + 2nd would get him.