Bottom 10? Edit: 6th worst, trending down, season over

[Drivesaitl]

The low shooting% likely won't continue (its gone up around 1% since that original post), but as I have said in updates to that thread, I don't think the team will improve their shooting% to a league average or anything. We have significantly less skill than an average NHL team, so I don't expect the shooting% to be average either. However, we don't have near historically low skill either, which is where our shooting% was when I made that thread. In my last post in that thread, I think I predicted around a 8% shooting% for the rest of the season, which is less than league average.

Good answer. I was giving you some gears after your McDavid comment yesterday which I do feel was a result of reacting to short term, and outlier results. McDavid is a great player, there is no doubt of that.

What I like about the post above though is it acknowledges that over all our skill is less than average due to the steep falloff from McD, Drai, Talbot, Nuge. That's the key there to why shooting percentage is lower.

Meanwhile it bumps up a bit when we're seeing likely unsustainable production from the likes of Cagg and Khaira.

 

[DaGap]

I don't get how Lucic/Strome haven't been healthy scratched yet. Sure it might make us worse for a game, but maybe it'll wake them up.

Because whag you see is what you get. Expect Lucic to continue trending down and Strome to never change

 

[Drivesaitl]

It's still too early for me to throw in the towel and I really hope that the players feel the same way. That said they should've had this season turned around already so with every loss I am getting less and less confident in this team.

Its like I said its harder when expectation is attached to it. The first season of success can be a lot of fun. Like kids in a candy shop and winning. But when you've poked the bees nest that is NHL opponents a lot of them take numbers and seek to get better. In essence beating Dallas 7-1 last season is the kind of thing that just makes them that much more determined to turn the tables on you from a player, and org perspective.

Dallas is a microcosm of the difference between this year and last. Also STL. we were beating these teams last season but they tired of that from an org perspective, now scout our schemes better, have both added significant players, and are now better able to compete with us.

Last year wasn't an illusion, but this response year isn't either. The Oilers too, will pushback at some time with more concerted approach and have shown signs of it. Just that they need more help and they need more pissed off about what is happening to them.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Because whag you see is what you get. Expect Lucic to continue trending down and Strome to never change

I actually think that Strome has been better lately, but anyone that thought we were getting a top six RW should be sorely disappointed.

He is what he is - a soft minutes 3C.

 

[DaGap]

Its like I said its harder when expectation is attached to it. The first season of success can be a lot of fun. Like kids in a candy shop and winning. But when you've poked the bees nest that is NHL opponents a lot of them take numbers and seek to get better. In essence beating Dallas 7-1 last season is the kind of thing that just makes them that much more determined to turn the tables on you from a player, and org perspective.

Dallas is a microcosm of the difference between this year and last. Also STL. we were beating these teams last season but they tired of that from an org perspective, now scout our schemes better, have both added significant players, and are now better able to compete with us.

Last year wasn't an illusion, but this response year isn't either. The Oilers too, will pushback at some time with more concerted approach and have shown signs of it. Just that they need more help and they need more pissed off about what is happening to them.

Last year was a fluke

 

[Drivesaitl]

Last year was a fluke

It was a lot of things and player performances and being healthy that came together to achieve best possible result.

The overperformance is basically defined by players like Kass scoring multiple goals in the playoffs and big goals at that. It screamed outlier because you can give a guy like Zach 10 breakaways and he'll score one. Not a knock on him, just that he's never had NHL hands. He's not good enough to beat NHL goalies. And yet for a limited period of time was. It was a bunch of outliers like that coming together that resulted in how successful we were. Without which we were a team struggling for a playoff spot as expected.

The curious thing is Chia is quoted stating that last year was not really a 103pt team. He actually acknowledged that, which was correct. The strange thing is him thinking they would be good enough this season while becoming a worse team over the offseason.

 

[DaGap]

It was a lot of things and player performances and being healthy that came together to achieve best possible result.

The overperformance is basically defined by players like Kass scoring multiple goals in the playoffs and big goals at that. It screamed outlier because you can give a guy like Zach 10 breakaways and he'll score one. Not a knock on him, just that he's never had NHL hands. He's not good enough to beat NHL goalies. And yet for a limited period of time was. It was a bunch of outliers like that coming together that resulted in how successful we were. Without which we were a team struggling for a playoff spot as expected.

The curious thing is Chia is quoted stating that last year was not really a 103pt team. He actually acknowledged that, which was correct. The strange thing is him thinking they would be good enough this season while becoming a worse team over the offseason.

The stars had to align for the Oilers last year and they did. What im seeing now is what i almmost expected last year to be

 

[Aerrol]

It's still too early for me to throw in the towel and I really hope that the players feel the same way. That said they should've had this season turned around already so with every loss I am getting less and less confident in this team.

It's funny, I was annoyed all offseason and preseason with Chia's moves but I'm right there with you. I am fairly sure that we're missing playoffs due to this start, but I still don't see a garbage team out there. I watched some terrible Oilers teams very closely, especially the Eakins Oilers, and this team plays a lot better than that even at its worst. Todd is making some questionable lineup choices but his system is very evident to my eye. Even when they're panicking we still don't see the ridiculous five on one defence that used to be common, for instance. We have the talent to make a late push but it's just really unlikely to be enough now.

 

[McDrai]

If we can manage 80 points this season I will consider that as a victory at this point in time

 

[GMofOilers]

It's funny, I was annoyed all offseason and preseason with Chia's moves but I'm right there with you. I am fairly sure that we're missing playoffs due to this start, but I still don't see a garbage team out there. I watched some terrible Oilers teams very closely, especially the Eakins Oilers, and this team plays a lot better than that even at its worst. Todd is making some questionable lineup choices but his system is very evident to my eye. Even when they're panicking we still don't see the ridiculous five on one defence that used to be common, for instance. We have the talent to make a late push but it's just really unlikely to be enough now.

Just not getting any saves.

 

[Drivesaitl]

It's funny, I was annoyed all offseason and preseason with Chia's moves but I'm right there with you. I am fairly sure that we're missing playoffs due to this start, but I still don't see a garbage team out there. I watched some terrible Oilers teams very closely, especially the Eakins Oilers, and this team plays a lot better than that even at its worst. Todd is making some questionable lineup choices but his system is very evident to my eye. Even when they're panicking we still don't see the ridiculous five on one defence that used to be common, for instance. We have the talent to make a late push but it's just really unlikely to be enough now.

This is true, and a good post but honestly when Klefbom is on the ice getting pulled from the goal area way out of position chasing the play it looks a lot like Eakins hockey.

Thing is we didn't have Larsson and the developed Nurse during that era. What your D looks like has to do with that D. I realize I'm being captain obvious with that but things are not going to get as bas as what we had.

That said I still wish we had Petry. Reasonable player at a bad time and he never stopped trying. Brutal results sometimes but one of the few players that was actually bothered by the losing. I always respected him for not succumbing to it easily.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Just not getting any saves.

Ask yourself it its plausible for a team to be playoff contending if they have scored 2 or less goals 13/20 times in the season. This is just not the run support, generally, that results in wins.

The Oilers have 4 regulation time wins all season. It really is that bad a team all round. Not on one player.

 

[Aerrol]

This is true, and a good post but honestly when Klefbom is on the ice getting pulled from the goal area way out of position chasing the play it looks a lot like Eakins hockey.

Thing is we didn't have Larsson and the developed Nurse during that era. What your D looks like has to do with that D. I realize I'm being captain obvious with that but things are not going to get as bas as what we had.

That said I still wish we had Petry. Reasonable player at a bad time and he never stopped trying. Brutal results sometimes but one of the few players that was actually bothered by the losing. I always respected him for not succumbing to it easily.

Ok, I will admit, my statement was a little too sweeping. There are mistakes happening out there that are inexcusable - some of Klef's especially are a little too reminiscent of some of Schultz, for instance. I think there's something to the idea that he's trying too hard because he's the closest thing we have to an offensive PMD though. Really needs to concentrate on just playing simple defence but he's constantly trying for the big highlight play to try and make something happen from the backend. Which really feels like the time in a microcosm for me right now - they're starting to worry that playing simple, sound hockey isn't good enough, particularly since the pucks aren't going in. But I stand by my overall statement that the team is still far away from the decade of darkness teams we saw.

100% agree on Petry. I was furious when MacT failed to re-sign him. Absolutely laughable that we threw away our ONLY (somewhat) reliable dman... But I'm happy that he's continued to play well in Mtl, even when they've been trash lately.

 

[GMofOilers]

Ask yourself it its plausible for a team to be playoff contending if they have scored 2 or less goals 13/20 times in the season. This is just not the run support, generally, that results in wins.

The Oilers have 4 regulation time wins all season. It really is that bad a team all round. Not on one player.

Need some saves. Talbots stats are at the bottom of the league. It hurts. Average puts us at 500 or above for sure

 

[Drivesaitl]

Need some saves. Talbots stats are at the bottom of the league. It hurts. Average puts us at 500 or above for sure

Sure it hurts, its made a difference in some games, but our scoring level is still consistent with being one of the worst teams and even considering we got a pile of the goals, 8, in one game.

This has been a popgun run support offense. In fairness to Talbot in a game like against the Blues if he makes one mistake (and I also fault Klefbom) that's the margin he has to work with the whole game. When you're a goalie behind a team scoring 1 goal a game it feels like you can never make a mistake. That tension, for any goalie, if sustained, is untenable. No goalie in the world copes with that for very long.

Goalies don't bend longterm results by themselves.

 

[Aerrol]

Need some saves. Talbots stats are at the bottom of the league. It hurts. Average puts us at 500 or above for sure

Sure it hurts, I agree. But it's not everything. It's part of the puzzle. I mean, how many times have we seen Oilers goalies rebound after they leave? Dubnyk obviously comes to mind here. Team is leaving Talbot out to dry more as they cheat for offense, Talbot is leaving the team more nervous/deflated when he lets in bad goals. No one is blame free here. We really need a shakeup with a real scorer added IMO. Cammalleri isn't enough. Or at least separating McDavid or Drai.

 

[GMofOilers]

Sure it hurts, its made a difference in some games, but our scoring level is still consistent with being one of the worst teams and even considering we got a pile of the goals, 8, in one game.

This has been a popgun run support offense. In fairness to Talbot in a game like against the Blues if he makes one mistake (and I also fault Klefbom) that's the margin he has to work with the whole game. When you're a goalie behind a team scoring 1 goal a game it feels like you can never make a mistake. That tension, for any goalie, if sustained, is untenable. No goalie in the world copes with that for very long.

Goalies don't bend longterm results by themselves.

Yes our offence has struggled. I’ll admit that, but our goalie has struggled just as much making our record what it is.

Let’s take yesterday’s game. Down 2-0 on the first 2 shots on net, our offence battles back to 3-2, that score last year won us a lot of games. Talbot finishes the game with a 714 save% resulting in a 6-3 game. Surely 4 of the goals in that game Talbot would want back.

I guess when we have goalie and offence struggle at the same time we will lose more then we win.

 

[GMofOilers]

Talbots save percentage is pretty relevant to our record. Only 2 game where he has posted over a 900 save % we have lost. That’s on offence. Ever game he has posted below 900 is on Talbot. To be fair every game he has posted over 925 is a Talbot stealing us one.

Date	Team	GS	W	L	T	OT	SA	GA	Sv%	SO	TOI
Nov 18	@ DAL	1	0	1	0	0	21	6	.714	0	60:00
Nov 16	vs STL	1	0	1	0	0	39	4	.897	0	59:57
Nov 14	vs VGK	1	1	0	0	0	24	2	.917	0	59:58
Nov 11	@ NYR	1	0	1	0	0	33	3	.909	0	59:04
Nov 9	@ NJD	1	1	0	0	0	34	2	.941	0	64:43
Nov 7	@ NYI	1	1	0	0	0	37	1	.973	0	60:38
Nov 5	vs DET	1	0	1	0	0	35	4	.886	0	60:00
Nov 3	vs NJD	1	1	0	0	0	34	3	.912	0	60:00
Nov 1	vs PIT	1	0	1	0	0	30	3	.900	0	58:38
Oct 28	vs WSH	1	0	1	0	0	30	4	.867	0	57:36
Oct 26	vs DAL	1	1	0	0	0	32	4	.875	0	60:00
Oct 24	@ PIT	1	--	--	--	1	44	2	.955	0	60:42
Oct 21	@ PHI	1	0	1	0	0	24	2	.917	0	59:11
Oct 19	@ CHI	1	1	0	0	0	31	1	.968	0	64:23
Oct 14	vs OTT	1	0	1	0	0	23	4	.826	0	41:04
Oct 9	vs WPG	1	0	1	0	0	43	5	.884	0	60:00
Oct 7	@ VAN	1	0	1	0	0	7	3	.571	0	20:32
Oct 4	vs CGY	1	1	0	0	0	27	0	1.000	1	60:00

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[frag2]

Sure it hurts, its made a difference in some games, but our scoring level is still consistent with being one of the worst teams and even considering we got a pile of the goals, 8, in one game.

This has been a popgun run support offense. In fairness to Talbot in a game like against the Blues if he makes one mistake (and I also fault Klefbom) that's the margin he has to work with the whole game. When you're a goalie behind a team scoring 1 goal a game it feels like you can never make a mistake. That tension, for any goalie, if sustained, is untenable. No goalie in the world copes with that for very long.

Goalies don't bend longterm results by themselves.

They do if the goalie is playing horribly and plays ~80% of the season.

 

[SomeDudeOTI]

Talbots save percentage is pretty relevant to our record. Only 2 game where he has posted over a 900 save % we have lost. That’s on offence. Ever game he has posted below 900 is on Talbot. To be fair every game he has posted over 925 is a Talbot stealing us one.

Date	Team	GS	W	L	T	OT	SA	GA	Sv%	SO	TOI
Nov 18	@ DAL	1	0	1	0	0	21	6	.714	0	60:00
Nov 16	vs STL	1	0	1	0	0	39	4	.897	0	59:57
Nov 14	vs VGK	1	1	0	0	0	24	2	.917	0	59:58
Nov 11	@ NYR	1	0	1	0	0	33	3	.909	0	59:04
Nov 9	@ NJD	1	1	0	0	0	34	2	.941	0	64:43
Nov 7	@ NYI	1	1	0	0	0	37	1	.973	0	60:38
Nov 5	vs DET	1	0	1	0	0	35	4	.886	0	60:00
Nov 3	vs NJD	1	1	0	0	0	34	3	.912	0	60:00
Nov 1	vs PIT	1	0	1	0	0	30	3	.900	0	58:38
Oct 28	vs WSH	1	0	1	0	0	30	4	.867	0	57:36
Oct 26	vs DAL	1	1	0	0	0	32	4	.875	0	60:00
Oct 24	@ PIT	1	--	--	--	1	44	2	.955	0	60:42
Oct 21	@ PHI	1	0	1	0	0	24	2	.917	0	59:11
Oct 19	@ CHI	1	1	0	0	0	31	1	.968	0	64:23
Oct 14	vs OTT	1	0	1	0	0	23	4	.826	0	41:04
Oct 9	vs WPG	1	0	1	0	0	43	5	.884	0	60:00
Oct 7	@ VAN	1	0	1	0	0	7	3	.571	0	20:32
Oct 4	vs CGY	1	1	0	0	0	27	0	1.000	1	60:00

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Your point is certainly valid, however I don't think it's quite as simple as that.
D-men hanging Talbot out to dry is a big part of the problem as well and affects the save %. Talbot has to cut out the stinkers and be better in general, but it's not all on him.

 

[McGoMcD]

There is so much parity in the league goaltending is such a huge factor. If Talbot played like he did last year we would be above 500. I have faith he will go on a hot streak, but we won't win with goaltending like that. Look at Dallas last year, good team with bad goaltending. You won't make the playoffs unless you get league average goaltending. That is a lot to put on Talbot, but he is the biggest single reason we are where we are.

 

[GMofOilers]

Your point is certainly valid, however I don't think it's quite as simple as that.
D-men hanging Talbot out to dry is a big part of the problem as well and affects the save %. Talbot has to cut out the stinkers and be better in general, but it's not all on him.

I think we are leading the league in break aways and odd man rushes for but the other goalie seems to be making the saves. Seems like every mistake is in the back of our net this year. Last year Talbot made saves, as we made lots of mistakes to.

 

[GMofOilers]

There is so much parity in the league goaltending is such a huge factor. If Talbot played like he did last year we would be above 500. I have faith he will go on a hot streak, but we won't win with goaltending like that. Look at Dallas last year, good team with bad goaltending. You won't make the playoffs unless you get league average goaltending. That is a lot to put on Talbot, but he is the biggest single reason we are where we are.

To add onto this, the first 15 games Calgary’s offence was right with ours, but Smith was playing better then Talbot by a lot and there record was above 500

 

[Bryanbryoil]

It was a lot of things and player performances and being healthy that came together to achieve best possible result.

The overperformance is basically defined by players like Kass scoring multiple goals in the playoffs and big goals at that. It screamed outlier because you can give a guy like Zach 10 breakaways and he'll score one. Not a knock on him, just that he's never had NHL hands. He's not good enough to beat NHL goalies. And yet for a limited period of time was. It was a bunch of outliers like that coming together that resulted in how successful we were. Without which we were a team struggling for a playoff spot as expected.

The curious thing is Chia is quoted stating that last year was not really a 103pt team. He actually acknowledged that, which was correct. The strange thing is him thinking they would be good enough this season while becoming a worse team over the offseason.

While we got lucky with Zack scoring, we were unlucky with Eberle and Nuge being snakebitten. As to the bolded, interesting take. I still maintain that he wanted to see what he has in a number of players before making any additional moves. The problem with that is that Todd is mismanaging some players like Puljujarvi for example. I think that Chia has seen enough to know that Nurse and Nuge are worth keeping as part of the core, we need more speed on the wing which likely means that Maroon won't be back. Caggiula is not a top 6 guy going forward, Slepyshev may not be either. Strome is not a long term fit here either. The question is, when does he start to make some moves? Soon or does he wait until the offseason?

It's funny, I was annoyed all offseason and preseason with Chia's moves but I'm right there with you. I am fairly sure that we're missing playoffs due to this start, but I still don't see a garbage team out there. I watched some terrible Oilers teams very closely, especially the Eakins Oilers, and this team plays a lot better than that even at its worst. Todd is making some questionable lineup choices but his system is very evident to my eye. Even when they're panicking we still don't see the ridiculous five on one defence that used to be common, for instance. We have the talent to make a late push but it's just really unlikely to be enough now.

Todd taught the team defensive structure, beyond that we aren't seeing positive results on the PP or PK nor have we seen results in terms of ES offense. The team isn't garbage unless you're talking offensively, then they are indeed garbage right now.

 

[Aerrol]

Todd taught the team defensive structure, beyond that we aren't seeing positive results on the PP or PK nor have we seen results in terms of ES offense. The team isn't garbage unless you're talking offensively, then they are indeed garbage right now.

The offense is garbage, but really it's the finishing that's garbage. We're still opening up space and getting opportunities to score. But then we shoot it into their damn chest pad or miss the net. I'd love to see if firing Woodcroft might have some benefit though.