Player Discussion: BIG Adam Lowry

[Babooch]

Big AL's next progression is to avoid those stretches of 15 games where he goes pointless. He has a couple of those each year that sour his numbers.

On the PP he needs to be a viable option to help gain zone entry. As of now the four defenders don't need to worry about him giving or taking a quick pass at the Blueline.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Lowry is currently playing against the best players in the world.

Scoring at a 1st line rate.

With questionably effective linemates... At least on paper.

Maybe PoMo was on to something with his time in the top 6.

I don't really think of Lowry as a 2C but in a pinch I have no problem playing him in the 1 or 2 holefor a while.

He's a lot closer to a 2C than he is to a 4C. His metrics last year pointed to this as well....

I don't think Lowry has the offense to play in the top 6 on any good team. I could see him filling in there temporarily for an injury replacement. His good D play would compensate for the diminished offense.

Even if Lowry has become that good now, it was still silly at the time PMo tried it out. We'll never know but it appeared to set Lowry back for a while. Fortunately PMo then handled it well and got Lowry going again.

Those questionable linemates may actually be contributing more to Lowry's success than you are giving them credit for. They are doing a lot to create the offense on that line, IMO.

I think the bottom line is that Lowry is scoring at a rate comparable to a typical 3C in the league while at the same time doing a much better than avg. job of shutting down opponents top players.

I think that it is sometimes hard to see how it is that he is as good as he is. There are very few standout plays. He is just always in the right position, even against star players who are accustomed to beating positional players. The more educated eye-testers among us may see it better, IDK.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think Lowry is gradually becoming exactly the player Maurice hoped/thought he'd become. At the time Maurice said that one day Lowry would be playing against the other team's best and that is exactly what he does. As much as he can Maurice hard matches Lowry's line against one of the other teams top 2 lines trying to free up offense for our more offensive players. You can call it what you want but he gets top 6 matchups in terms of quality of competition.

Fair enough. I think there was a brief period when PMo got a little carried away with his Lowry love. The rest of the time it was as you say.

 

[KingBogo]

Fair enough. I think there was a brief period when PMo got a little carried away with his Lowry love. The rest of the time it was as you say.

That's why I think it is unfair to pigeon hole the Jets as having a stacked top 6. Yes stacked in terms of offensive talent, but 3 of the 6 are guys are still on ELC's and still learning the defensive ropes. And even out of the vets it would only be Little who I would consider more of a top end defensive player. Having Lowry's line mixes well with this group especially at home where it is easier to hard match. I think our home-away record would support this. Then when healthy our 4th line can beat up its match up. IMO Lowry's skill set goes a long way in making this all happen.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

That's why I think it is unfair to pigeon hole the Jets as having a stacked top 6. Yes stacked in terms of offensive talent, but 3 of the 6 are guys are still on ELC's and still learning the defensive ropes. And even out of the vets it would only be Little who I would consider more of a top end defensive player. Having Lowry's line mixes well with this group especially at home where it is easier to hard match. I think our home-away record would support this. Then when healthy our 4th line can beat up its match up. IMO Lowry's skill set goes a long way in making this all happen.

You bring up an interesting angle. We are not doing very well on the road so far. When healthy, should we have had a very different line structure on the road? It could be as little as putting MP and Army Joe on the 3rd with Lowry. Or it could mean a different top 6 as well. deal with the 4th line after the top 9 is sorted.

Or do we leave the lines as they were and find some other way of winning on the road?

 

[KingBogo]

You bring up an interesting angle. We are not doing very well on the road so far. When healthy, should we have had a very different line structure on the road? It could be as little as putting MP and Army Joe on the 3rd with Lowry. Or it could mean a different top 6 as well. deal with the 4th line after the top 9 is sorted.

Or do we leave the lines as they were and find some other way of winning on the road?

Interesting idea switching lines up on the road. I am looking forward to seeing Armia move up into Tanev's spot as I think it may be a really nice fit.

 

[Dayofthedogs]

I don't think Lowry has the offense to play in the top 6 on any good team. I could see him filling in there temporarily for an injury replacement. His good D play would compensate for the diminished offense.

Even if Lowry has become that good now, it was still silly at the time PMo tried it out. We'll never know but it appeared to set Lowry back for a while. Fortunately PMo then handled it well and got Lowry going again.

Those questionable linemates may actually be contributing more to Lowry's success than you are giving them credit for. They are doing a lot to create the offense on that line, IMO.

I think the bottom line is that Lowry is scoring at a rate comparable to a typical 3C in the league while at the same time doing a much better than avg. job of shutting down opponents top players.

I think that it is sometimes hard to see how it is that he is as good as he is. There are very few standout plays. He is just always in the right position, even against star players who are accustomed to beating positional players. The more educated eye-testers among us may see it better, IDK.

Lowry is scoring at a first line rate 5vs5 this season.

Not a 3c rate.

Also it's highly suspect to think that Lowry playing 2 pre season games in the top 6 somehow set back his development.

Perhaps Copp and Tanev have really been the offensive producers on that line but I doubt it. Neither of those guys really started scoring until Lowry came back and their historical offensive production is worse that Lowry's with a couple linemates exceptions for Copp.

This whole Lowry has no offense notion doesn't hold much water for me. Once again I find it funny that so many people attribute players like Petan/Dano lack of offensive success to their linemates yet we don't really make that same argument for Lowry.

 

[10Ducky10]

If you want more D in the top 6, move Armia up to one of the top 2 lines.
MP Little Armia would be a great line.

edit ... then we would have to very good defensive savvy lines and the Little line would also put up points.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Lowry is scoring at a first line rate 5vs5 this season.

Not a 3c rate.

Also it's highly suspect to think that Lowry playing 2 pre season games in the top 6 somehow set back his development.

Perhaps Copp and Tanev have really been the offensive producers on that line but I doubt it. Neither of those guys really started scoring until Lowry came back and their historical offensive production is worse that Lowry's with a couple linemates exceptions for Copp.

This whole Lowry has no offense notion doesn't hold much water for me. Once again I find it funny that so many people attribute players like Petan/Dano lack of offensive success to their linemates yet we don't really make that same argument for Lowry.

What rates are other 3C's scoring at, pts/60, 5v5?

Don't really know what happened to Lowry in that sophomore season. It appeared to be in his head, since a 4 game stint in the AHL seemed to fix it. Did PMo's excessive exuberance get into his head? Maybe, maybe not. It seemed to connect.

I didn't say that Copp and Tanev are "the offensive producers". The line is scoring as a unit. Lowry hasn't scored his 8 goals off of his own individual efforts. Someone made plays to get there.

I'm not one of those saying Lowry has no offense. I am, and have been for some time, saying that Lowry has offense comparable to typical 3C's + outstanding shutdown play. If you look back far enough you will find me wishing we had a more offensive 3C for a while. If you go back further you will find me defending him when many had completely soured on him. I've mostly been a Lowry supporter since he arrived on the Jets.

 

[Dayofthedogs]

What rates are other 3C's scoring at, pts/60, 5v5?

Don't really know what happened to Lowry in that sophomore season. It appeared to be in his head, since a 4 game stint in the AHL seemed to fix it. Did PMo's excessive exuberance get into his head? Maybe, maybe not. It seemed to connect.

I didn't say that Copp and Tanev are "the offensive producers". The line is scoring as a unit. Lowry hasn't scored his 8 goals off of his own individual efforts. Someone made plays to get there.

I'm not one of those saying Lowry has no offense. I am, and have been for some time, saying that Lowry has offense comparable to typical 3C's + outstanding shutdown play. If you look back far enough you will find me wishing we had a more offensive 3C for a while. If you go back further you will find me defending him when many had completely soured on him. I've mostly been a Lowry supporter since he arrived on the Jets.

I believe the bar for 3rd line p/60 is around 1.5

If I'm not mistaken it's
1st line
2.0
2nd
1.7
3rd
1.5
4th
1.2

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I believe the bar for 3rd line p/60 is around 1.5

If I'm not mistaken it's
1st line
2.0
2nd
1.7
3rd
1.5
4th
1.2

Lowry is at 1.71 p/60 all minutes
Scheifele 2.86
Little 2.10
So he is clearly 3rd on the Jets.
Hendricks is not far behind him at 1.57. And we all know he has no business playing 4C.

Lowry is 95th in the league, which makes him at the top of the 4th line range. NHL.com includes some players who are not actually playing C, like MP for 1. I'm not going to try to filter the result any further. I think it is reasonable to say that he is about middle of the pack for 3C's. The numbers are fairly flat through that group of players anyway.

I'm not adept at digging into the micro stats. I'm satisfied to call his offense typical of a 3C based on what I am seeing at NHL.com.

 

[Dayofthedogs]

Lowry is at 1.71 p/60 all minutes
Scheifele 2.86
Little 2.10
So he is clearly 3rd on the Jets.
Hendricks is not far behind him at 1.57. And we all know he has no business playing 4C.

Lowry is 95th in the league, which makes him at the top of the 4th line range. NHL.com includes some players who are not actually playing C, like MP for 1. I'm not going to try to filter the result any further. I think it is reasonable to say that he is about middle of the pack for 3C's. The numbers are fairly flat through that group of players anyway.

I'm not adept at digging into the micro stats. I'm satisfied to call his offense typical of a 3C based on what I am seeing at NHL.com.

Using all minutes is a pretty hinky way of boistering your position... Lol.

Those numbers I gave you were 5vs5 rates

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Using all minutes is a pretty hinky way of boistering your position... Lol.

Those numbers I gave you were 5vs5 rates

So what? Why are we arguing here? Don't we both like Lowry at 3C? Seriously, I am puzzled by this exchange.

What is the position you think I'm defending? Are you taking the position that Lowry is a top 6 C? Lol yourself. Is that what this debate is about?

I don't know where you got your numbers from. I didn't deliberately look for all minutes numbers. That's what NHL.com spit out. There was no filter for 5v5 only. The picture I got was close enough. In what way is it not good enough for you? If I had the data for 5v5 only and also eliminated all those who don't actually play C what would it have shown differently? Would it have shown that Lowry is NOT a good 3C?

 

[bustamente]

Good on Lurch for not responding to that idiot Kassian, at that point of the game he did the right thing.

 

[PhilJets]

Lowry is one of the best 3C in the league.

 

[204hockey]

HUGE props to lowsy. dude is such a battler plays the game simple hard and works his ass off. not alot of recognition for shur down 3cs but he deserves so much props. dudes a boss

 

[Dayofthedogs]

So what? Why are we arguing here? Don't we both like Lowry at 3C? Seriously, I am puzzled by this exchange.

What is the position you think I'm defending? Are you taking the position that Lowry is a top 6 C? Lol yourself. Is that what this debate is about?

I don't know where you got your numbers from. I didn't deliberately look for all minutes numbers. That's what NHL.com spit out. There was no filter for 5v5 only. The picture I got was close enough. In what way is it not good enough for you? If I had the data for 5v5 only and also eliminated all those who don't actually play C what would it have shown differently? Would it have shown that Lowry is NOT a good 3C?

No no my friend. We are not arguing. I didn't lol because I was trying to insult you or diminish your post.

Sorry that it came off that way.

I guess my point is this. If you had to use Lowry as a 2c and he was playing with high end offensive players I think he could surprise you with his offense.

He does some really sneaky good things. He is pretty good at zone entries and puck retrieval. He also has some decent vision and passing.

I think a few teams in this league wouldn't mind putting him in a top 6 role. I'm not sure he'd look outta place there either.

I guess basically I think his offense could be 2c level in the right situation.

He is literally on another level defensively than most NHL players. Comparables at the moment are Kopitar, Bergeron, Barkov....

That's crazy for a 3C

 

[Whileee]

Lowry is at 1.71 p/60 all minutes
Scheifele 2.86
Little 2.10
So he is clearly 3rd on the Jets.
Hendricks is not far behind him at 1.57. And we all know he has no business playing 4C.

Lowry is 95th in the league, which makes him at the top of the 4th line range. NHL.com includes some players who are not actually playing C, like MP for 1. I'm not going to try to filter the result any further. I think it is reasonable to say that he is about middle of the pack for 3C's. The numbers are fairly flat through that group of players anyway.

I'm not adept at digging into the micro stats. I'm satisfied to call his offense typical of a 3C based on what I am seeing at NHL.com.

It's wrong to look at all situation point production. You should look at 5v5. Lowry gets a lot of time on the PK and little PP time this season.

 

[Dayofthedogs]

His assist on the PP tonight I think highlights what he can do on the PP besides score and screen.

Good puck retrieval. Good control. Smart play back to the point.

However, watching him rush up the ice from his own end and walk through the whole Edmonton team, split the defense and then fees Armia for what should have been a tap in highlights some of his other skills.

His zone entry is much better than he gets credit form

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

No no my friend. We are not arguing. I didn't lol because I was trying to insult you or diminish your post.

Sorry that it came off that way.

I guess my point is this. If you had to use Lowry as a 2c and he was playing with high end offensive players I think he could surprise you with his offense.

He does some really sneaky good things. He is pretty good at zone entries and puck retrieval. He also has some decent vision and passing.

I think a few teams in this league wouldn't mind putting him in a top 6 role. I'm not sure he'd look outta place there either.

I guess basically I think his offense could be 2c level in the right situation.

He is literally on another level defensively than most NHL players. Comparables at the moment are Kopitar, Bergeron, Barkov....

That's crazy for a 3C

Fair enough. Sorry if I misinterpreted your posts.

I think the thing with the bolded is that the same should be true for all players who are good at their level. If they were given more TOI and with better linemates they would look better and produce more. A player doesn't get put on the 3rd line because he is a lot worse than the players on the 2nd. It is because he is just not quite as good as someone else. That someone else gets the benefit of better minutes and better linemates so he appears to be a lot better.

If put on a 2nd line he wouldn't stand out like a sore thumb but over the course of a season he would produce less than a 2nd line player should, IMO.

I agree that he is outstanding defensively. That, combined with his adequate offense is how he can outscore some of the leagues best when matched up against them.

IDK for sure what would happen if another top 6 C just happened to fall into our lap, pushing Little down. Little is also pretty good defensively and better than Lowry offensively. I expect Little would win the job over Lowry.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It's wrong to look at all situation point production. You should look at 5v5. Lowry gets a lot of time on the PK and little PP time this season.

I don't agree that it is wrong. It is not complete. It is less than ideal. But do most 3C's get a lot of PP time? Or are they more likely to get PK time? Ideally, I would think it is best to look at all situations and 5v5 and any other significant data that you have.

I'm not that good at finding those stats. The NHL doesn't give me that information, at least not easily. There are other things wrong with that data as well but it is 'good enough' for my purpose.

To see that a player, Lowry in this case, is in the ballpark of production for his position, all situation is good enough. If you want to bin him within a group of about 5 or so then it is not.

 

[Dayofthedogs]

Fair enough. Sorry if I misinterpreted your posts.

I think the thing with the bolded is that the same should be true for all players who are good at their level. If they were given more TOI and with better linemates they would look better and produce more. A player doesn't get put on the 3rd line because he is a lot worse than the players on the 2nd. It is because he is just not quite as good as someone else. That someone else gets the benefit of better minutes and better linemates so he appears to be a lot better.

If put on a 2nd line he wouldn't stand out like a sore thumb but over the course of a season he would produce less than a 2nd line player should, IMO.

I agree that he is outstanding defensively. That, combined with his adequate offense is how he can outscore some of the leagues best when matched up against them.

IDK for sure what would happen if another top 6 C just happened to fall into our lap, pushing Little down. Little is also pretty good defensively and better than Lowry offensively. I expect Little would win the job over Lowry.

That's all fair.

For the record I don't prefer Lowry as a 2C. I still have Little ahead of him. Considering his play this year however I think more than handful of teams in the NHL might be willing to give him that shot.

Thing is. With his play so far this year I'm not sure he may not be capable of 2c minutes. If he had 2nd line caliber line mates I'd be interested to see where his scoring ends up.

Even with my love affair with Lowry I was trying to drum up support to bring Duchene in for 3/2C using Trouba this off season and earlier this year to push Lowry down.

I'm not so sure that's necessary anymore. Lowry's play this year has been exceptional. I'm not going to rule out him pushing Little to 3C in a year or two.

Just hope we can get him signed to something decent long term. Out of all of Chevy's contracts I think getting Lowry to a good long term deal may be the most important.

 

[ps241]

That's all fair.

For the record I don't prefer Lowry as a 2C. I still have Little ahead of him. Considering his play this year however I think more than handful of teams in the NHL might be willing to give him that shot.

Thing is. With his play so far this year I'm not sure he may not be capable of 2c minutes. If he had 2nd line caliber line mates I'd be interested to see where his scoring ends up.

Even with my love affair with Lowry I was trying to drum up support to bring Duchene in for 3/2C using Trouba this off season and earlier this year to push Lowry down.

I'm not so sure that's necessary anymore. Lowry's play this year has been exceptional. I'm not going to rule out him pushing Little to 3C in a year or two.

Just hope we can get him signed to something decent long term. Out of all of Chevy's contracts I think getting Lowry to a good long term deal may be the most important.

I think Dutch is a cancer we want to avoid at all costs.

 

[Dayofthedogs]

I think Dutch is a cancer we want to avoid at all costs.

I think you're right. That post hasn't aged very well.

 

[libertarian]

That's crazy for a 3C

If you think that is crazy check out this scenario.

Wheeler experiment at C works and Wheels doesn't lose a beat offensively while play good defensively . So far so good.
Scheif returns to the line up and Wheels stay a C.
Now we have a scenario where Lowry is moved to the 4th line but still playing 13+ mins.
Jets centre depth is now
Scheif
Wheels
Little
Lowry
Best Centre depth in the league which would mean that all lines playing between 14 to 18 mins per night keeping them all fresh for the playoffs. This would bode well for a deep playoff run.
The craziest thing is that this scenario is absolutely possible.