Player Discussion: BIG Adam Lowry

[KingBogo]

It kinda blows my mind to think that PoMo consistently told us he was training Lowry for a job.... And now it appears he is excelling at that job.

I'm actually a little blown away by Lowry's p/60 5vs5. Isn't 2 per 60 around 1st line levels? Keep in mind he is scoring like that with Tanev and Copp and being one of the most defensively sound forwards in the NHL. His possession numbers are Bergeron levels.

Frankly, if you can sign Lowry long term for anything under 3.5 million you have to do it.

I remember when PoMo was laughed at for trying Lowry at 1C for a couple games in the preseason 2 years ago?

I'd have no problem with him taking Chefs spot while he's out if the whole Wheeler at C thing doesn't work. I wonder how he'd do with some higher end offensive players.

*Side note. It warmed my heart to see the Lowry first unit PP goal.... Its almost like it's not a fluke anymore...

Agree on Lowry, he is turning into a real nice player for us. The problem with switching out Lowry for Wheeler is now you have put Connor and Laine in defense first roles, especially at home where Maurice likes to hard match Lowry in a shut down role. I think moving Armia into Tanev's spot will add a little more offense with Lowry and Copp and gives us 3 nice lines. The 4th line has taken a couple hits lately and we won't likely see them with much ice time. It will be interesting to see if Maurice eventually slots Roslovic on Lowry's wing.

 

[Dayofthedogs]

Agree on Lowry, he is turning into a real nice player for us. The problem with switching out Lowry for Wheeler is now you have put Connor and Laine in defense first roles, especially at home where Maurice likes to hard match Lowry in a shut down role. I think moving Armia into Tanev's spot will add a little more offense with Lowry and Copp and gives us 3 nice lines. The 4th line has taken a couple hits lately and we won't likely see them with much ice time. It will be interesting to see if Maurice eventually slots Roslovic on Lowry's wing.

I'd probably go with CLW. Only if Wheeler faulters at C.

It seems like every time POMO switches up the lines and puts a high end guy on Lowry's line in the third they pot a goal. Its happened with both Connor and Laine a couple times.

I wonder how Copp would do at C on the shutdown line in a pinch.

Then again why change it. I mean for the better part of the season Lowry has been able to outplay the Tavares and Malkins and McDavid or Draisitles of the world with Tanev and Copp as his wingers...

That's a line of 3 players often refered to as "fringe, Ahlers, plugs" beating the best players in the NHL night after night.

 

[Whileee]

I have had my Lowry avatar for a few years now and I never doubted he would become the player PoMo told us repeatedly he was training to be. HFJets unfortunately does not share the Jets patience when it comes to developing players. Except for Petan. For some unexplained reason there is endless patience for Petan and no one else.

HFJets likes their players small. Big players are bad because the Jets draft for size over skill. Never mind that Lowry was actually a 45 goal scorer on a very low scoring WHL team and the WHL player of the year.

He has been developed very well by the Jets, and the organization and coaches deserve some credit for his development.

 

[Whileee]

It kinda blows my mind to think that PoMo consistently told us he was training Lowry for a job.... And now it appears he is excelling at that job.

I'm actually a little blown away by Lowry's p/60 5vs5. Isn't 2 per 60 around 1st line levels? Keep in mind he is scoring like that with Tanev and Copp and being one of the most defensively sound forwards in the NHL. His possession numbers are Bergeron levels.

Frankly, if you can sign Lowry long term for anything under 3.5 million you have to do it.

I remember when PoMo was laughed at for trying Lowry at 1C for a couple games in the preseason 2 years ago?

I'd have no problem with him taking Chefs spot while he's out if the whole Wheeler at C thing doesn't work. I wonder how he'd do with some higher end offensive players.

*Side note. It warmed my heart to see the Lowry first unit PP goal.... Its almost like it's not a fluke anymore...

Teams and players actually practice point shots with netfront traffic and deflections. It's a strategy. Lowry is evidently good at it. He's also underrated for his puck decisions and movement on the PP he makes a lot of good plays to maintain possession and move the puck to good areas.

 

[Dayofthedogs]

Teams and players actually practice point shots with netfront traffic and deflections. It's a strategy. Lowry is evidently good at it. He's also underrated for his puck decisions and movement on the PP he makes a lot of good plays to maintain possession and move the puck to good areas.

I'm just happy he hasn't been on the PP all year to keep his value down. If he continued to score around his 2g per 60, was getting 1st unit PP time and healthy we'd be talking about 30 goal scorer Adam Lowry. Or at least a kid on pace for it...

 

[csk]

Lowry has become the player I hoped he would be after his rookie season. I'll admit I had become skeptical after a few bumps in the road in his sophomore season, but players don't develop uniformly.

 

[ps241]

While there were people who were not fans of Lowry, they had a point; Lowry's line was consistent defensively, but they could not produce offense if their lives depended on it. As far as third lines go, that's not exactly the recipe for success of a line. This year, they are outscoring their opposition by a good margin, while providing even better defensive game. CLT has been one of the very best lines, if not the best line in terms of limiting chances and shots against.

I've pretty much fell in love with Lowry's game. I'm afraid keeping him requires an overpayment, though, but even still, that's likely to be a necessary investment. If this kind of defensive play can be sustained, it will be worth it.

Great post

That’s the thing isn’t it he has taken his game to the next level and although he doesn’t fill the net he is dominant most nights. He is making me really enjoy defensive hockey. Shout out to Copp too because he is such a smart player and they work off each other well.

I agree he will cost us but as I have said before the NHL tends to overvalue goals and points and undervalue goal differential. One thing when I watch their line working their magic it feels like a line that could be integral in winning us a Stanley cup one day. Can’t wait to see them in a tough playoff series.

I know longer think our team would be best with Lowry as our 4th line centre it’s more like a 3a 3b now at worst.

 

[DK59]

Great post

That’s the thing isn’t it he has taken his game to the next level and although he doesn’t fill the net he is dominant most nights. He is making me really enjoy defensive hockey. Shout out to Copp too because he is such a smart player and they work off each other well.

I agree he will cost us but as I have said before the NHL tends to overvalue goals and points and undervalue goal differential. One thing when I watch their line working their magic it feels like a line that could be integral in winning us a Stanley cup one day. Can’t wait to see them in a tough playoff series.

I know longer think our team would be best with Lowry as our 4th line centre it’s more like a 3a 3b now at worst.

I agree with all of what you say. This is a line that should be even more valuable come playoff time and the kind of line that teams need to be successful at that time of year. And the ability to defend and to match up well against top lines does not meet my definition of a true fourth line but one that is more of a 3a or 3b in terms of relative rank. The advantage of this is that other 3rd line can be a little more offensive in their focus and utilize more offensively skilled players to take advantage of match ups that present themselves during a game.

 

[Ducky10]

I'd probably go with CLW. Only if Wheeler faulters at C.

It seems like every time POMO switches up the lines and puts a high end guy on Lowry's line in the third they pot a goal. Its happened with both Connor and Laine a couple times.

I wonder how Copp would do at C on the shutdown line in a pinch.

Then again why change it. I mean for the better part of the season Lowry has been able to outplay the Tavares and Malkins and McDavid or Draisitles of the world with Tanev and Copp as his wingers...

That's a line of 3 players often refered to as "fringe, Ahlers, plugs" beating the best players in the NHL night after night.

I think Copp could handle playing C in a shutdown role and not just in a pinch. As much as I like Lowry I largely think he and Copp are pretty interchangeable, very similar players. I've also wanted to see Armia on the 3rd line with Copp and Lowry, he'd bring more offense than Tanev and wouldn't lose a thing defensively, in fact we'd arguably gain.

 

[Neuf]

[Lowry] and Copp are pretty interchangeable, very similar players.

I think the last season and a half have put a bigger difference between them, but I would have agreed prior. I'd choose Lowry every time for shutdown C.

 

[Whileee]

I think Copp could handle playing C in a shutdown role and not just in a pinch. As much as I like Lowry I largely think he and Copp are pretty interchangeable, very similar players. I've also wanted to see Armia on the 3rd line with Copp and Lowry, he'd bring more offense than Tanev and wouldn't lose a thing defensively, in fact we'd arguably gain.

I really like Copp and agree he'd be a good defensive C, but Lowry has a size and presence and superb body-positioning that make him an elite defensive C, in my opinion. He's also underrated on the offensive side of things. He consistently makes smart plays with the puck. He's on pace for about 19 even-strength goals this season (over 82 games). That's outstanding for a defensive 3C, playing with a couple of low-scoring wingers. His 5v5 points/60 are about the same as Bergeron this year (1.99 vs. 2.05), and his shot and xGF metrics are as good as Bergeron's. He's +1 in individual penalty differential (Bergeron is -4). He's been facing tough competition and has almost a 60% defensive zone start ratio (vs. offensive zone starts). Bergeron has a 58% offensive zone start rate, so he starts a bunch more of his shifts in the offensive zone.

Lowry should be in the conversation for the Selke (but he won't).

 

[Eyeseeing]

HFJets likes their players small. Big players are bad because the Jets draft for size over skill. Never mind that Lowry was actually a 45 goal scorer on a very low scoring WHL team and the WHL player of the year.

He has been developed very well by the Jets, and the organization and coaches deserve some credit for his development.

Ya ya ya
I’m wrong again
Lowry is turning into a very valuable piece

 

[Maukkis]

I think Copp could handle playing C in a shutdown role and not just in a pinch. As much as I like Lowry I largely think he and Copp are pretty interchangeable, very similar players. I've also wanted to see Armia on the 3rd line with Copp and Lowry, he'd bring more offense than Tanev and wouldn't lose a thing defensively, in fact we'd arguably gain.

Did Copp not play in that role when Lowry was injured? I recall us running Matthias-Copp-Tanev and having some success with that combination.

 

[Ducky10]

I really like Copp and agree he'd be a good defensive C, but Lowry has a size and presence and superb body-positioning that make him an elite defensive C, in my opinion. He's also underrated on the offensive side of things. He consistently makes smart plays with the puck. He's on pace for about 19 even-strength goals this season (over 82 games). That's outstanding for a defensive 3C, playing with a couple of low-scoring wingers. His 5v5 points/60 are about the same as Bergeron this year (1.99 vs. 2.05), and his shot and xGF metrics are as good as Bergeron's. He's +1 in individual penalty differential (Bergeron is -4). He's been facing tough competition and has almost a 60% defensive zone start ratio (vs. offensive zone starts). Bergeron has a 58% offensive zone start rate, so he starts a bunch more of his shifts in the offensive zone.

Lowry should be in the conversation for the Selke (but he won't).

I don't disagree with any of that regarding Lowy, only suggesting I don't think Copp is that far off in many aspects, actually think he has more offensive upside than Lowry. He doesn't have Lowry's size but he is positionally a very good player on both sides of the puck.

 

[Whileee]

I don't disagree with any of that regarding Lowy, only suggesting I don't think Copp is that far off in many aspects, actually think he has more offensive upside than Lowry. He doesn't have Lowry's size but he is positionally a very good player on both sides of the puck.

I'm a Copp fan, so I won't disagree.

 

[Maukkis]

I don't disagree with any of that regarding Lowy, only suggesting I don't think Copp is that far off in many aspects, actually think he has more offensive upside than Lowry. He doesn't have Lowry's size but he is positionally a very good player on both sides of the puck.

Copp is definitely quicker and has a better shot (and arguably better offensive instincts, based on how they play in the offensive zone). When it comes to pure defense, Lowry is simply superior, but I reckon Copp could replace him on any given night and at least perform adequately.

 

[AlphaLackey]

This is a very interesting and insightful comparison. Otto was a beast of very similar stripes to be sure.

Right, and I think with a more modern eye we might appreciate just how much of a role a player like Otto played in the Flames deep run and their Cup win in the late 80s.

Given his current trajectory, there's going to be Selke talk very soon in this man's future, especially given the (unfortunate?) interpretation of "defensive forward" as "... one that can also score". I think his 6(!) PIM going into tonight's game suggests he's gotten there through improved technique moreso than just being large.

 

[AlphaLackey]

I'm a Copp fan, so I won't disagree.

No doubt that Copp also plays a big part in that line's defensive success. It's nice to have actual defensive-minded players instead of "well, I guess they're checking forwards cause they can't score so what else is left?"

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

While there were people who were not fans of Lowry, they had a point; Lowry's line was consistent defensively, but they could not produce offense if their lives depended on it. As far as third lines go, that's not exactly the recipe for success of a line. This year, they are outscoring their opposition by a good margin, while providing even better defensive game. CLT has been one of the very best lines, if not the best line in terms of limiting chances and shots against.

I've pretty much fell in love with Lowry's game. I'm afraid keeping him requires an overpayment, though, but even still, that's likely to be a necessary investment. If this kind of defensive play can be sustained, it will be worth it.

Not disputing Lowry's value but scoring counts at contract time. He will not be a very expensive signing. Should get a nice raise but nothing extravagant.

 

[Maukkis]

Not disputing Lowry's value but scoring counts at contract time. He will not be a very expensive signing. Should get a nice raise but nothing extravagant.

In that you are absolutely right. Then again, defense is something you have to pay for too. Look no further than the once very cheap CCM line; the Isles had a very cheap fourth line that put up great results. Now all of Martin, Cizikas and Clutterbuck are making a decent chunk of money.

If we can get Lowry signed without paying more than three million a year, I'll consider that negotiation a success.

 

[Ducky10]

Copp is definitely quicker and has a better shot (and arguably better offensive instincts, based on how they play in the offensive zone). When it comes to pure defense, Lowry is simply superior, but I reckon Copp could replace him on any given night and at least perform adequately.

No disagreement here, I just think put in the same situation and brought along similarly, Copp could be almost the same player.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I have had my Lowry avatar for a few years now and I never doubted he would become the player PoMo told us repeatedly he was training to be. HFJets unfortunately does not share the Jets patience when it comes to developing players. Except for Petan. For some unexplained reason there is endless patience for Petan and no one else.

Sorry but the bolded is just complete nonsense. There are a lot of people who don't want to give up on Petan until he is set up to succeed - just once. That hardly equates to "endless patience".

Lowry is never going to become the player that PMo apparently thought he would be. PMo tried to put him in the top 6 fer Pete's sake! In his sophomore year, no less. He has become the player that many hoped he would though. Excellent shutdown C with enough offense to compare favourably to other 3C's in the league who are not as good defensively as he is.

 

[Dayofthedogs]

Sorry but the bolded is just complete nonsense. There are a lot of people who don't want to give up on Petan until he is set up to succeed - just once. That hardly equates to "endless patience".

Lowry is never going to become the player that PMo apparently thought he would be. PMo tried to put him in the top 6 fer Pete's sake! In his sophomore year, no less. He has become the player that many hoped he would though. Excellent shutdown C with enough offense to compare favourably to other 3C's in the league who are not as good defensively as he is.

Lowry is currently playing against the best players in the world.

Scoring at a 1st line rate.

With questionably effective linemates... At least on paper.

Maybe PoMo was on to something with his time in the top 6.

I don't really think of Lowry as a 2C but in a pinch I have no problem playing him in the 1 or 2 holefor a while.

He's a lot closer to a 2C than he is to a 4C. His metrics last year pointed to this as well....

 

[KingBogo]

Sorry but the bolded is just complete nonsense. There are a lot of people who don't want to give up on Petan until he is set up to succeed - just once. That hardly equates to "endless patience".

Lowry is never going to become the player that PMo apparently thought he would be. PMo tried to put him in the top 6 fer Pete's sake! In his sophomore year, no less. He has become the player that many hoped he would though. Excellent shutdown C with enough offense to compare favourably to other 3C's in the league who are not as good defensively as he is.

I think Lowry is gradually becoming exactly the player Maurice hoped/thought he'd become. At the time Maurice said that one day Lowry would be playing against the other team's best and that is exactly what he does. As much as he can Maurice hard matches Lowry's line against one of the other teams top 2 lines trying to free up offense for our more offensive players. You can call it what you want but he gets top 6 matchups in terms of quality of competition.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

In that you are absolutely right. Then again, defense is something you have to pay for too. Look no further than the once very cheap CCM line; the Isles had a very cheap fourth line that put up great results. Now all of Martin, Cizikas and Clutterbuck are making a decent chunk of money.

If we can get Lowry signed without paying more than three million a year, I'll consider that negotiation a success.

Agreed.

I think Lowry's AAV will depend a bit on term. I expect him to sign for something in the neighbourhood of 4x2.5 - 6x3. Maybe add 1/4 mil to each number for the rising cap. In that case, 5x3 might hit the nail right on the head.