Barracuda News and Discussion Part 4

[Juxtaposer]

Really? Because I seem to remember a quote from you saying Meier was a second liner at best. Granted this was at the draft but I believe you should take that into consideration.

Let’s wait until he becomes a 1st liner to boast about how wrong I am.

 

[Sharksrule04]

IDK, I remember people hating the pick (and I sincerely apologize if Jux wasn't one of those people), to a thread getting created that Hertl is our best non-Thornton player. Same story with Timo, omg worst pick we've ever made. I think we are a bit unfair to some of our prospects because they aren't flashy.

Everyone loved Goldobin and he was such an elite prospect, but we are down on guys like Timo when they are in the AHL, etc (me too)

I've learned to not argue prospects on this board. People are too definitive with their expectations and rankings of prospects which is an entirely speculative thing. There is too much "_____ will never be a top 6 forward". Or "the coach is stupid for not playing ____". It's one thing to say that a guy who is struggling in college will never be a top 6 player, but I've seen it said here about guys who are dominating in juniors or the college ranks. Too many bold statements of people trying to be right.

 

[Sharksrule04]

Neither of those has become anything better than I expected them to be, and never mind that Meier isn’t a first line forward yet and Hertl is borderline at that. They were both early to mid 1st round picks as well. Try again.

Hertl I understand, but you honestly expected Meier to already be a 20 goal scorer and one of the better forwards on the team?

 

[Lebanezer]

I've learned to not argue prospects on this board. People are too definitive with their expectations and rankings of prospects which is an entirely speculative thing. There is too much "_____ will never be a top 6 forward". Or "the coach is stupid for not playing ____". It's one thing to say that a guy who is struggling in college will never be a top 6 player, but I've seen it said here about guys who are dominating in juniors or the college ranks. Too many bold statements of people trying to be right.

It's the easiest stance to plant your flag in because most of these guys aren't going to reach the outlandish expectations placed on them by simply getting drafted.

 

[Gecklund]

Let’s wait until he becomes a 1st liner to boast about how wrong I am.

I’d argue he is playing like a first liner earlier this season. I’d like to see some consistency and not boasting because I thought the same thing. I was so pissed when we didn’t take Barzal. Barzal was my number 1 pick at our spot even before Werenski. I agreed with you. That’s why I remember

 

[Sharksrule04]

It's the easiest stance to plant your flag in because most of these guys aren't going to reach the outlandish expectations placed on them by simply getting drafted.

Exactly, the odds are generally against prospects becoming top 6 forwards. I prefer to focus on the upside of a prospect, how likely they are at reaching that upside and what the floor is if they don't rather than spouting out lines like "horrible pick", "___will never", and "____ is done". You won't be rewarded for being right on this message board and more likely than not you'll look dumb when you're wrong.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Hertl I understand, but you honestly expected Meier to already be a 20 goal scorer and one of the better forwards on the team?

A lot of people expected Meier to be pretty solid pretty early. That was one of the reasons why DW picked him. It's another Hertl/Michalek type of pick where readiness was a bit more of a preference. When it comes to being one of the better forwards on the team, I guess that depends on what your qualifications for such a statement are. I don't think he was one of the best five or six forwards this season so what are we really talking about here?

 

[Sharksrule04]

A lot of people expected Meier to be pretty solid pretty early. That was one of the reasons why DW picked him. It's another Hertl/Michalek type of pick where readiness was a bit more of a preference. When it comes to being one of the better forwards on the team, I guess that depends on what your qualifications for such a statement are. I don't think he was one of the best five or six forwards this season so what are we really talking about here?

I'd only put Couture, Pavs and Hertl above Meier for the full season. Kane obviously is a better forward but he was here for 1 month. It's fair to say that Tierney was as good if not better for the full season but I can't put Donskoi, Boedker or Labanc above Meier in terms of value to the Sharks for this season.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I'd only put Couture, Pavs and Hertl above Meier for the full season. Kane obviously is a better forward but he was here for 1 month. It's fair to say that Tierney was as good if not better for the full season but I can't put Donskoi, Boedker or Labanc above Meier in terms of value to the Sharks for this season.

Thornton was obviously better for the time that he was in there but I think it's fair not to include him or Kane in this discussion. But I'd put Couture, Pavs, Hertl, Tierney, Boedker, Donskoi, and as much criticism as I have had for Labanc closing this season, I'd put him as better than Meier this year. Meier had a good stretch of scoring goals and was a solid player this year so it's not a knock against him but there are a lot of metrics showing numerous guys better than him this year even when you exclude Thornton and Kane who are obviously better than him as well.

 

[The Nemesis]

This works/has worked so long as a core can be kept in place. The org has done a good job of that to this point. I think something that gets overlooked too is that there is only really 1-2 spots per season for a prospect to come up on the team (this is because the sharks have been successful at retaining their core). So long as that spot can be filled with a useful prospect the team is moving forward. Of course if you can fill that spot with an exceptional player the team is better for it.

But considering the draft position the Sharks typically are at, and that they will move picks to load up at the deadline, the org has done a good job of providing useful enough prospects. While they haven’t had any homeruns in the first round in a while due to their “lower ceiling high floor” strategy: Coyle, Meier, Hertl are all solid top 6 NHL forwards - successful picks by my estimation. All that being said I’ll never understand how they managed to get absolutely nothing from the 3rd round.

I don't have data on it, but just a general sense I get is that the first real plateau you tend to hit in terms of draft pick quality happens in the 60-70 pick range. So for a team that historically picks in the back half of round 3 (ie 80-90) it doesn't surprise me if they manage to end up in that awkward area where you've just run out of "reasonably sure thing" guys and you start getting into the really risky guys who have a standout skill and multiple red flags or who just don't have much of a ceiling to speak of.

It's something I do want to do a little more digging on, but first I need to recreate a draft database with updated stats (now being a good time since I'll basically have maximum time before the start of the next season invalidates my totals )

 

[Juxtaposer]

Hertl I understand, but you honestly expected Meier to already be a 20 goal scorer and one of the better forwards on the team?

Meier’s biggest hallmark was that he was NHL ready.

It also depends what you mean by “better forwards on the team”. Couture, Hertl, Pavelski, Thornton, and Kane are notably better. Donskoi is arguable. Meier is probably our 6th best forward,m. Technically, that is above average.

 

[Sharksrule04]

Thornton was obviously better for the time that he was in there but I think it's fair not to include him or Kane in this discussion. But I'd put Couture, Pavs, Hertl, Tierney, Boedker, Donskoi, and as much criticism as I have had for Labanc closing this season, I'd put him as better than Meier this year. Meier had a good stretch of scoring goals and was a solid player this year so it's not a knock against him but there are a lot of metrics showing numerous guys better than him this year even when you exclude Thornton and Kane who are obviously better than him as well.

Agree to disagree. I think Meier was way more impactful than Boedker, Donksoi and Labanc on a night to night basis even when not getting on the scoresheet. I can see the argument for Tierney. Labanc went weeks sometimes where he was barely an NHL player.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Meier’s biggest hallmark was that he was NHL ready.

It also depends what you mean by “better forwards on the team”. Couture, Hertl, Pavelski, Thornton, and Kane are notably better. Donskoi is arguable. Meier is probably our 6th best forward,m. Technically, that is above average.

Perhaps, but you were whinging over Meier's underwhelming junior/AHL/NHL numbers. He started scoring and then you changed your tune.

To clarify, I would say that Meier has only slightly exceeded your draft-day expectations, but he's generally outpaced what you thought of him in his draft+1/2 years.

Agree to disagree. I think Meier was way more impactful than Boedker, Donksoi and Labanc on a night to night basis even when not getting on the scoresheet. I can see the argument for Tierney. Labanc went weeks sometimes where he was barely an NHL player.

With Meier, you have to divide his season into two halves. The secondish part of the season, Meier was driving play on any line he was one.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Perhaps, but you were whinging over Meier's underwhelming junior/AHL/NHL numbers. He started scoring and then you changed your tune.

To clarify, I would say that Meier has only slightly exceeded your draft-day expectations, but he's generally outpaced what you thought of him in his draft+1/2 years.



With Meier, you have to divide his season into two halves. The secondish part of the season, Meier was driving play on any line he was one.

So what you’re saying is that I complained about Meier's production when it was bad and celebrated it when it was good? How dare I!

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Thornton was obviously better for the time that he was in there but I think it's fair not to include him or Kane in this discussion. But I'd put Couture, Pavs, Hertl, Tierney, Boedker, Donskoi, and as much criticism as I have had for Labanc closing this season, I'd put him as better than Meier this year. Meier had a good stretch of scoring goals and was a solid player this year so it's not a knock against him but there are a lot of metrics showing numerous guys better than him this year even when you exclude Thornton and Kane who are obviously better than him as well.

What metrics show Boedker and Tierney being better than Meier? Those guys are <50% CF players, Meier is a very good CF% player. Not sure about other metrics but I’m sure they’re similar. FWIW, eye test says Meier is a lot better than Tierney or Boedker, IMO. LaBanc has great CF% numbers but doesn’t pass the eye test defensively, and at the end of the day, he is a minus player who scored almost half of his 40 points on the power play. He is not better than Meier at all and was not the better forward this season.

Donskoi I can entirely agree with based on the eye test as well as metrics and their levels of production were pretty similar. I thought both of those players were fantastic all season.

For the record, if we’re bringing up metrics, Meier had some of the most high danger scoring chances of any individual player in the NHL.

 

[spintops]

And I was one of the few that liked the pick. I preferred Teravainen, like everyone else, but I was very optimistic on Hertl immediately following the pick. I woke up at 4am to watch him play in the Czech Extraliiga during the lockout in 2012 and I knew without a doubt that Hertl had first line upside and that there was absolutely no way he wouldn’t at least be a second liner.

With regards to Timo, that’s an incredible amount of revisionist history. I didn’t hate Meier. I hated the pick. I said Meier would be a good complimentary top-6 winger who could drive possession and play on both ends of the ice and that he’d be well suited to compliment a star like Jumbo. That’s what he’s turning into and I love him. But the pick was still brutal. Barzal is a point per game center. Connor scored 30 goals. Rantanen is a point per game winger with all the positive traits of Meier. Boeser is an elite goal scorer worth almost no help. The pick was awful given that all these players were drafted behind Meier, and especially so when all of those but Boeser were consistently ranked ahead of Meier.

Try again, and maybe don’t laugh in my face when my opinions and history with these two players is extremely clear.

No, I didn't like Rantanen compared to Barzal. But I like Rantanen much more than Meier. That's mostly because Rantanen produced at almost a PPG after the WJC on a ****ing horrible Liiga team. Rantanen is also a good playmaker.

I strongly believe that Meier's upside if absolutely everything works out is 2nd liner. Which is a goddamn horrible 9th overall pick.

If you think Meier could be a first line powerforward you clearly have not watched him. He does not have first line upside, point blank. This is the biggest issue.

.

Guess Meier hasn't proven you wrong yet (he is producing without a super star), but I think he is already at the "absolutely everything works out 2nd liner" that you made it seem like he wouldn't reach, but I think he is still growing/improving.

 

[OrrNumber4]

So what you’re saying is that I complained about Meier's production when it was bad and celebrated it when it was good? How dare I!

What I am saying is that at one point, you thought his low production was an indication of (very) poor outcome.

Let me say another thing about Barzal and Rantanen vs. Meier. The case for Meier isn’t that crazy. Barzal and Rantanen get more minutes, better linemates, and a lot more special teams time. There is also the case that post-December Meier is the developed, actual Meier (with his ~30 ES points in 45ish games).

 

[Juxtaposer]

What I am saying is that at one point, you thought his low production was an indication of (very) poor outcome.

Let me say another thing about Barzal and Rantanen vs. Meier. The case for Meier isn’t that crazy. Barzal and Rantanen get more minutes, better linemates, and a lot more special teams time. There is also the case that post-December Meier is the developed, actual Meier (with his ~30 ES points in 45ish games).

Low production is an indicator of poor outcome. How is this debatable? Meier pulled it together and that’s great, but that doesn’t mean his poor production wasn’t worrisome. Also, I watched plenty of Meier in his draft+1 season. He was a floater and didn’t give much effort defensively. I was not just basing my feelings about him on his stats.

I’m sorry but there is no argument for a 36 point player being better than an 85 point player. No linemate, ice time, or special teams can make up for a 50 point disparity.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Low production is an indicator of poor outcome. How is this debatable? Meier pulled it together and that’s great, but that doesn’t mean his poor production wasn’t worrisome. Also, I watched plenty of Meier in his draft+1 season. He was a floater and didn’t give much effort defensively. I was not just basing my feelings about him on his stats.

I’m sorry but there is no argument for a 36 point player being better than an 85 point player. No linemate, ice time, or special teams can make up for a 50 point disparity.

My overall point is that at one point, you didn’t think very highly of Meier. You might have called him a “B” prospect. Yet, it seems clear that wasn’t a correct assessment. In the same way, players like Gambrell or Balcers could surprise.

How do their possession numbers look?

I remember hearing that since December, Meier has a higher ES/60 than Barzal and Rantanen.

We can’t assume that given the PP opportunities and linemates, Meier would outscore either player. But, how would Barzal and Rantanen have done with no PP time, no Mackinnon/Tavares, and less ice time?

 

[Gene Parmesan]

Exactly, the odds are generally against prospects becoming top 6 forwards. I prefer to focus on the upside of a prospect, how likely they are at reaching that upside and what the floor is if they don't rather than spouting out lines like "horrible pick", "___will never", and "____ is done". You won't be rewarded for being right on this message board and more likely than not you'll look dumb when you're wrong.

Projecting 18 year old boys is really a crapshoot. It's why I never dig in with NHL prospects.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

What metrics show Boedker and Tierney being better than Meier? Those guys are <50% CF players, Meier is a very good CF% player. Not sure about other metrics but I’m sure they’re similar. FWIW, eye test says Meier is a lot better than Tierney or Boedker, IMO. LaBanc has great CF% numbers but doesn’t pass the eye test defensively, and at the end of the day, he is a minus player who scored almost half of his 40 points on the power play. He is not better than Meier at all and was not the better forward this season.

Donskoi I can entirely agree with based on the eye test as well as metrics and their levels of production were pretty similar. I thought both of those players were fantastic all season.

For the record, if we’re bringing up metrics, Meier had some of the most high danger scoring chances of any individual player in the NHL.

Both outproduced Meier and were used in more situations than he was. Meier was better from a possession standpoint but that's not the only way to be better than someone else.

 

[BaileyMacTavish]

4-0 Tuscon

Hmm. Well... still got time left I guess

 

[LadyStanley]

Bibeau pulled after giving up 5 on 15 shots.

Williams now in net.

 

[LadyStanley]

TheAHL.com

Gregiore signed to ATO.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Both outproduced Meier and were used in more situations than he was. Meier was better from a possession standpoint but that's not the only way to be better than someone else.

They each had 3 more points. Meier had 4 more goals than Tierney and 10 more than LaBanc. That’s not a very big difference in favor of Tierney and LaBanc.