Rumor: Avs Proposals/Rumors/Free Agents 17-18 Part VIII

[ABasin]

Australians

Anyone who eats a worm due to a lost hockey bet has got to always be welcome at our party. Maybe we need more Australians.

 

[Bubba Thudd]

Anyone who eats a worm due to a lost hockey bet has got to always be welcome at our party. Maybe we need more Australians.

Yeah, but at that time, he was named after a Drow Elf. They eat worms on a regular basis.
Not just a Drow Elf, but also a ranger. So, eating worms is to be expected.

 

[Ivan13]

People from Oz are the best, met a few in my day, all as mad as a hat and terrific mates to boot. Same with New Zealanders, if you know what's a first five-eight you're golden with those guys.

 

[MarkT]

I'm gonna be that jerk who derails the topic back to hockey.

So, is anyone else significantly worried that this is another mirage season like Roy's first?

The signs are all there. We have players playing well above their previous production (Barrie, MacKinnon, Rantanen) and this may not be sustainable. Our only proven capable defender is EJ and he might be injured before I finish typing this sentence. Our scoring is almost entirely based on one line, and if they line doesn't produce as much next year the whole thing could easily collapse just because of that.

And then there's the goaltending. The last time Varly played this well it was that first Roy season, and the thing both seasons had in common was there was a backup playing well enough to potentially steal the starting job. If Varly returns to his average self (50% bad games) next season, this again could lead to a lot more losses.

I think a lot of people are assuming that our rookies and going to be better next season - that Jost, Compher, Kerfoot, and even Girard, are going to be more productive next season than this one. But there's no real reason to assume that. Girard especially I'd expect to struggle next season as the league figures him out. And if all those guys perform the same or worse as they did this season, MacKinnon, Barrie and Rantanen score less often, and Varly plays like normal, the Avs are likely to miss the playoffs.

 

[ABasin]

I'm gonna be that jerk who derails the topic back to hockey.

So, is anyone else significantly worried that this is another mirage season like Roy's first?

The signs are all there. We have players playing well above their previous production (Barrie, MacKinnon, Rantanen) and this may not be sustainable. Our only proven capable defender is EJ and he might be injured before I finish typing this sentence. Our scoring is almost entirely based on one line, and if they line doesn't produce as much next year the whole thing could easily collapse just because of that.

And then there's the goaltending. The last time Varly played this well it was that first Roy season, and the thing both seasons had in common was there was a backup playing well enough to potentially steal the starting job. If Varly returns to his average self (50% bad games) next season, this again could lead to a lot more losses.

I think a lot of people are assuming that our rookies and going to be better next season - that Jost, Compher, Kerfoot, and even Girard, are going to be more productive next season than this one. But there's no real reason to assume that. Girard especially I'd expect to struggle next season as the league figures him out. And if all those guys perform the same or worse as they did this season, MacKinnon, Barrie and Rantanen score less often, and Varly plays like normal, the Avs are likely to miss the playoffs.

I like your post.

The fanbase does have a tendency to assume that once a player hits a certain production level, that there will not be regression. And of course, regression does happen sometimes. Ditto for the assumption that young players will automatically progress. Some do, some don't. Just look at MacKinnon for a couple of years there.

It's very nice to see that MacKinnon has finally broken loose, but will he continue to score at a 1.4ppg pace? Quite possibly not, as it's the highest scoring pace in a half a decade. But if they do get some true development out of a couple of the 1st/2nd year guys (i.e. meaningful scoring depth), maybe grab a useful FA, they should still be OK.

Varlamov is the more troubling question.

 

[MarkT]

I like your post.

The fanbase does have a tendency to assume that once a player hits a certain production level, that there will not be regression. And of course, regression does happen sometimes. Ditto for the assumption that young players will automatically progress. Some do, some don't. Just look at MacKinnon for a couple of years there.

It's very nice to see that MacKinnon has finally broken loose, but will he continue to score at a 1.4ppg pace? Quite possibly not, as it's the highest scoring pace in a half a decade. But if they do get some true development out of a couple of the 1st/2nd year guys (i.e. meaningful scoring depth), maybe grab a useful FA, they should still be OK.

Varlamov is the more troubling question.

Thanks.

My worry with MacKinnon is that watching the games, a significant number of his goals seems to involve a great deal of luck. Look at his wraparound goal against Detroit. 9/10 that doesn't go in the net. Not saying he doesn't create a lot of his luck, but the puck going a few inches in another direction on his shots and he might score half as many goals. I think he's always going to be a legit #1 center from now on, but I'm not convinced he'll be competing for the league lead in points from here on in either.

 

[AdamCalderHero]

Thanks.

My worry with MacKinnon is that watching the games, a significant number of his goals seems to involve a great deal of luck. Look at his wraparound goal against Detroit. 9/10 that doesn't go in the net. Not saying he doesn't create a lot of his luck, but the puck going a few inches in another direction on his shots and he might score half as many goals. I think he's always going to be a legit #1 center from now on, but I'm not convinced he'll be competing for the league lead in points from here on in either.

You make your own luck. He's so fast and powerful that he gets defenders scrambling and they make mistakes.

 

[shadow1]

I'm gonna be that jerk who derails the topic back to hockey.

So, is anyone else significantly worried that this is another mirage season like Roy's first?

The signs are all there. We have players playing well above their previous production (Barrie, MacKinnon, Rantanen) and this may not be sustainable. Our only proven capable defender is EJ and he might be injured before I finish typing this sentence. Our scoring is almost entirely based on one line, and if they line doesn't produce as much next year the whole thing could easily collapse just because of that.

And then there's the goaltending. The last time Varly played this well it was that first Roy season, and the thing both seasons had in common was there was a backup playing well enough to potentially steal the starting job. If Varly returns to his average self (50% bad games) next season, this again could lead to a lot more losses.

I think a lot of people are assuming that our rookies and going to be better next season - that Jost, Compher, Kerfoot, and even Girard, are going to be more productive next season than this one. But there's no real reason to assume that. Girard especially I'd expect to struggle next season as the league figures him out. And if all those guys perform the same or worse as they did this season, MacKinnon, Barrie and Rantanen score less often, and Varly plays like normal, the Avs are likely to miss the playoffs.

I don’t think the season is a mirage, but in an NHL in which teams like Colorado can go from 30th to a playoff spot in one year’s time, your assessment is accurate.

I think the Avalanche can avoid collapsing next season by addressing its big weaknesses this off-season. Namely, secondary scoring forwards.

 

[MarkT]

You make your own luck. He's so fast and powerful that he gets defenders scrambling and they make mistakes.

That's not what I mean when I say luck. When I say luck I'm talking about the goals that would not go in 9/10 in the exact same circumstance. Things like deflections off the other team's players. Those are not created - those are happenstance. I'm not worried about MacKinnon's production based on his speed and power dropping. I'm worried about his production based on luck dropping, and maybe even affecting his other production due to bad lack.

 

[dahrougem2]

This season isn't a mirage. The team is noticeably different. There isn't the extreme reliance on Varlamov/Bernier. Sure, Varlamov has had to be good recently but he hasn't been great all season. Ditto Bernier.

The team is 2nd youngest in the league IIRC. They're going to continue growing. Youth is still incoming and our best players have taken the next step forward.

 

[Ivan13]

This team is playing good hockey more often than not, that wasn't the case during Roy's magical season. We will see what happens with Nate, it is unrealistic to expect him to continue this production, because if he does for a few seasons he will be in discussion with the likes of Crosby and Sakic when all is said and done.

 

[AdamCalderHero]

That's not what I mean when I say luck. When I say luck I'm talking about the goals that would not go in 9/10 in the exact same circumstance. Things like deflections off the other team's players. Those are not created - those are happenstance. I'm not worried about MacKinnon's production based on his speed and power dropping. I'm worried about his production based on luck dropping, and maybe even affecting his other production due to bad lack.

I understand and I agree that there may be times this luck deserts him. I just think he creates so much he will always seem 'lucky'. I.e shots deflecting off defenders are unlikely, but he directs so many shots towards net that he will get more of those goals than most other players.

 

[Barklez]

You make your own luck. He's so fast and powerful that he gets defenders scrambling and they make mistakes.

11 shots a game doesn’t hurt either, sooner or later they’re going to go in.

 

[Barklez]

That's not what I mean when I say luck. When I say luck I'm talking about the goals that would not go in 9/10 in the exact same circumstance. Things like deflections off the other team's players. Those are not created - those are happenstance. I'm not worried about MacKinnon's production based on his speed and power dropping. I'm worried about his production based on luck dropping, and maybe even affecting his other production due to bad lack.

To be honest, I think that particular goal is just fresh in your memory. I can’t remember his last lucky goal before that. Now I wouldn’t expect Kerfoot to put up 15 again next season but at the same time, those lucky bounces come from putting yourself in the right positions as ACH has said.

 

[MarkT]

To be honest, I think that particular goal is just fresh in your memory. I can’t remember his last lucky goal before that. Now I wouldn’t expect Kerfoot to put up 15 again next season but at the same time, those lucky bounces come from putting yourself in the right positions as ACH has said.

Nope. I actually just watched all the games since Christmas over the past couple of weeks (my life got too busy to keep up with hockey), so most of the season is fresh in my mind. Mac has gotten a lot of puck luck this season. Even he sometimes seems surprised when it goes in. Again, not saying he doesn't deserve what he's getting - he had terrible puck luck last season - I'm just saying people shouldn't necessarily expect him to keep up this level of production next season, and if he doesn't the team might be in serious trouble.

This season isn't a mirage. The team is noticeably different. There isn't the extreme reliance on Varlamov/Bernier. Sure, Varlamov has had to be good recently but he hasn't been great all season. Ditto Bernier.

The team is 2nd youngest in the league IIRC. They're going to continue growing. Youth is still incoming and our best players have taken the next step forward.

I think Carolina has been saying things like that for years. Young players don't always develop.

Also, yeah it isn't the extreme reliance on the goalies - now it's the extreme reliance on the top line and the goalies. When I compare this team to the ones you can count on being really good every year, the difference I see is that those teams have lots and lots of depth, and I don't just mean they have legit NHL players throughout their lineup - I mean that every line and defensive pair is consistently effective. Right now the Avs aren't that, and until they are we should be prepared for inconsistent results from season to season.

 

[Ivan13]

Canes young players developed pretty well. They just had a GM terrified of doing anything to improve the forward corps at the expense of the D assets he's been hoarding.

 

[MarkT]

Canes young players developed pretty well. They just had a GM terrified of doing anything to improve the forward corps at the expense of the D assets he's been hoarding.

Yeah oops shouldn't have used Carolina as an example. Arizona would have been better but they're always the go-to example for bad things.

 

[dahrougem2]

I think Carolina has been saying things like that for years. Young players don't always develop.

Also, yeah it isn't the extreme reliance on the goalies - now it's the extreme reliance on the top line and the goalies. When I compare this team to the ones you can count on being really good every year, the difference I see is that those teams have lots and lots of depth, and I don't just mean they have legit NHL players throughout their lineup - I mean that every line and defensive pair is consistently effective. Right now the Avs aren't that, and until they are we should be prepared for inconsistent results from season to season.

Carolina hasn't had a player like Nathan MacKinnon, or even a player like Mikko Rantanen, since 2006 Eric Staal.

The best teams in this league all have superstars, and then surround those superstars with the requisite amount of depth.

Tampa Bay: Kucherov, Stamkos, Hedman
Nashville: Subban, Josi, Forsberg
Boston: Marchand, Bergeron, Pastrnak
Toronto: Matthews, Nylander, Rielly, Andersen
Pittsburgh: Crosby, Malkin, Kessel
Washington: Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, Backstrom

Etc, etc. The job is to first figure out the main needs for a team. Fill the 1C, 1D, and 1G slots, and build everything else from there. The Avs have filled the 1C role with MacKinnon, and although EJ/Barrie aren't amongst the truly elite all around defensemen, they're doing the job for the Avs' 1D slot.

Varlamov is holding up at the moment, but that position will need to be addressed soon. We'll have to also address the 2C role, whether that be internally (Jost/Compher/Bowers) or externally via trade/UFA.

But this team is on the right track. They're young. They have the 1C. They have a boatload of defensive prospects both having graduated into the NHL (Zadorov/Girard) and on the way (Meloche/Makar/Timmins). They aren't Carolina.

 

[MarkT]

Carolina hasn't had a player like Nathan MacKinnon, or even a player like Mikko Rantanen, since 2006 Eric Staal.

The best teams in this league all have superstars, and then surround those superstars with the requisite amount of depth.

Tampa Bay: Kucherov, Stamkos, Hedman
Nashville: Subban, Josi, Forsberg
Boston: Marchand, Bergeron, Pastrnak
Toronto: Matthews, Nylander, Rielly, Andersen
Pittsburgh: Crosby, Malkin, Kessel
Washington: Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, Backstrom

Etc, etc. The job is to first figure out the main needs for a team. Fill the 1C, 1D, and 1G slots, and build everything else from there. The Avs have filled the 1C role with MacKinnon, and although EJ/Barrie aren't amongst the truly elite all around defensemen, they're doing the job for the Avs' 1D slot.

Varlamov is holding up at the moment, but that position will need to be addressed soon. We'll have to also address the 2C role, whether that be internally (Jost/Compher/Bowers) or externally via trade/UFA.

But this team is on the right track. They're young. They have the 1C. They have a boatload of defensive prospects both having graduated into the NHL (Zadorov/Girard) and on the way (Meloche/Makar/Timmins). They aren't Carolina.

Yeah I apologize for using Carolina as an example. Bad choice by me.

I agree they're on the right track. But on the right track does not mean they'll be better next season and it could very well mean they'll be worse next season. The 2c role, the defense, and the goaltending could all be serious issues next season even if MacKinnon keeps up this level of production.

I'm as big an Avs fan as you'll find, so I'll be happy to be wrong, but I think the signs are there and we shouldn't get our hopes up too high for next season.

 

[EdAVSfan]

There’s no question that there is going to be some regression from some players, but at the same time, there’s going to be some uptick from others.

The question will be which side has the greater change.

I think this team plays a lot better than the Roy team. I think fundamentally they’re stronger. I don’t believe they are officially a top 10 moving forward just because of this year. But there are some differences from that Roy team.

The Avs made several big changes from the team that made the playoffs. They lost important players in successive years (Stastny and ROR).
They also went in a completely different direction by adding old vets (Iginla, Beauchemin, Talbot, etc)
Most importantly, the defense stunk, regardless of where they finished in the standings.
For the most part, there’s less reason to worry moving forward as there was. No cap issues, no old vets in their decline years eating up cap space, and a glut of good.young forwards/dmen just starting out their NhL careers. As well, the Avs have lots of assets in upcoming picks and prospects to make good hockey trades. Again though, most importantly, the Avs seemingly have a defense that’s worthy of being in the NHL, with still lots of potential growth (Girard, Zadorov, Makar, Timmins)

So all in all, far more optimism this time around. There’s no real reason to just look at this season and worry about a massive regression. Even if there is, it’s not a big deal because of the cap situation and how young the roster is. Even with a regression next season, the avs are in a far more healthy place to rebound than they were back then.

 

[dahrougem2]

Yeah I apologize for using Carolina as an example. Bad choice by me.

I agree they're on the right track. But on the right track does not mean they'll be better next season and it could very well mean they'll be worse next season. The 2c role, the defense, and the goaltending could all be serious issues next season even if MacKinnon keeps up this level of production.

I'm as big an Avs fan as you'll find, so I'll be happy to be wrong, but I think the signs are there and we shouldn't get our hopes up too high for next season.

What signs? This is the second youngest team in the league. An offseason for players like Jost, Compher, Kerfoot, Girard, Toninato etc after their first full NHL campaigns will be good for them. Tyson Jost likely won't be a 20 point player next season.

This team's defence is looking the best it has in years, and we're talking like 10/11 years. Tyson Barrie has shown us he can step up and play a top pairing role, and we know what EJ can do. Continued growth from Zadorov and Girard and that is a legitimate top-4, with a great PK-guy Nemeth on the 3rd pairing.

Things are looking up for this team. I know it's tough to get your hopes up because of the 13-14 season but the 13-14 season SHOULD have propelled this team further. Instead, they replaced Stastny with Iginla, signed Beauchemin, traded O'Reilly, and in general went for the "big, veteran" team that you see the Oilers attempting to build today. That was the problem. Sakic/Roy looked at that team and completely mismanaged it, save for the O'Reilly trade.

That mistake hopefully won't happen again. I believe Sakic knows this.

 

[MarkT]

So all in all, far more optimism this time around. There’s no real reason to just look at this season and worry about a massive regression. Even if there is, it’s not a big deal because of the cap situation and how young the roster is. Even with a regression next season, the avs are in a far more healthy place to rebound than they were back then.

That's basically where I am. I'm optimistic in the long term. I'm worried solely about next season in terms of regression. I'm not expecting them to be terrible next season no matter what; I just think they could miss the playoffs. But overall I expect them to develop into a consistent playoff team in the near future. They are definitely in a better situation overall than in the first Roy year.

 

[EdAVSfan]

Yeah I apologize for using Carolina as an example. Bad choice by me.

I agree they're on the right track. But on the right track does not mean they'll be better next season and it could very well mean they'll be worse next season. The 2c role, the defense, and the goaltending could all be serious issues next season even if MacKinnon keeps up this level of production.

I'm as big an Avs fan as you'll find, so I'll be happy to be wrong, but I think the signs are there and we shouldn't get our hopes up too high for next season.

Yes, the avs could be worse next year. But is that really that big of a deal? The NhL has natural ebb and flow. Being so young, there’s lots of room for improvement.

The team could be worse next year standings-wise but still have made positive steps towards being a contender.

More important to look at the progression of the players and roles rather than just look at the points they accumulate in the standings.

 

[Barklez]

Nope. I actually just watched all the games since Christmas over the past couple of weeks (my life got too busy to keep up with hockey), so most of the season is fresh in my mind. Mac has gotten a lot of puck luck this season. Even he sometimes seems surprised when it goes in. Again, not saying he doesn't deserve what he's getting - he had terrible puck luck last season - I'm just saying people shouldn't necessarily expect him to keep up this level of production next season, and if he doesn't the team might be in serious trouble.

I think Carolina has been saying things like that for years. Young players don't always develop.

Also, yeah it isn't the extreme reliance on the goalies - now it's the extreme reliance on the top line and the goalies. When I compare this team to the ones you can count on being really good every year, the difference I see is that those teams have lots and lots of depth, and I don't just mean they have legit NHL players throughout their lineup - I mean that every line and defensive pair is consistently effective. Right now the Avs aren't that, and until they are we should be prepared for inconsistent results from season to season.

I think there’s a big difference in him surprising himself on some shots that go in and them being lucky but that’s all perception.

Not that I’m doubting you but I’d love some examples (if you can off the top of your head) other than the wrap-around goal because I simply can’t think of any.

It’s fair to assume at least some of the rookies will take another step forward next year, especially someone like Jost who has looked increasingly more comfortable as the season has gone on. Expecting them all to contribute more is a recipe for disappointment but I think it’s safe so assume they won’t all regress either.

For a guy like Girard, I think the league figured him out quite quickly - we saw him get pushed over a few times trying his spin a little to frequently in the first couple months. I’d expect him to play at or around the same level next year at a minimum as he’s been mostly staying responsible defensively and it’s not like he has any major defensive weaknesses that haven’t already been noticed.

Kerfoot seems like a wildcard to me, could easily regress but also wouldn’t be surprised if he replicated this year’s numbers in a more sustainable way (less goals off his stomach).

Compher I’m quite hopeful will take another step next year. He looked awesome at points early in the year and I think fatigue has really worn him down as well.

One thing that does give me more confidence in Compher and Jost - in particular - is their very high end puck/hand eye skills. They both have a nose for where to be and great stick skills, things that are a lot harder to improve after coming into the league than strength, conditioning, etc.

If anything makes me hopeful for next year though it’s the play of Barrie and Z that I think you’ve sorely underrated here. Obviously Zadorov’s biggest challenge is consistency but he looks like he’s really starting to put it together, as he did before his injury last year. Barrie has been better than I think anyone hoped this year - think whatever you want about him in his own zone - but I think we have a capable top 4 (trending up) for the first in 10+ years.

I don’t think anyone expects Mack to score 120 points next year, but if he hits 90 and Rants hits 70 next year I think we’re still fine. And who knows how many JT will bring on the second line.

 

[henchman21]

The biggest issue for the team to take the next level into consistent playoff team is figuring out the 2nd line. A #2C needs to be found/developed and some adequate talent put around that player to produce at a 45-55 point level. If that is found, this team will be a consistent playoff team. To take a further step into cup contention the #1G and #1D needs figured out as well, but a step at a time and hopefully the D is in the organization or will be with one of the 3 1st rounders the next two drafts.