Rumor: Avs Proposals/Rumors/Free Agents 17-18 Part VIII

[lonelybadger]

I think to keep this level of play the Avs will need a legitimate top 6 forwards (Either center or winger) and then another top 4 d.

 

[Barklez]

That's basically where I am. I'm optimistic in the long term. I'm worried solely about next season in terms of regression. I'm not expecting them to be terrible next season no matter what; I just think they could miss the playoffs. But overall I expect them to develop into a consistent playoff team in the near future. They are definitely in a better situation overall than in the first Roy year.

Another thing that I’d add, as my internet died and I was a bit late to the party, is that while I think a lot of posters would say they’d be okay with standing pat and seeing how things progress next year after a year of development rather than make a mistake in FA, it’s obvious to everyone that there are still glaring holes in this team even if all the young guys take another step next year. If it’s obvious to us, it’s obvious to Sakic and he’ll be making moves this summer to try to improve the team for next year but also for the long haul.

Soderberg/Comeau/Nieto can’t be relied upon this much again next year and while I don’t think they’ll all be gone, or even 2/3rds or them, there’s a lot of work to be done to keep this team competitive.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

There's a lot of uncertainty with the Avs for next year no doubt. But IMO it's different this year then it was with Roy back in 14/15. We got dominated on almost a nightly basis that year and road a crazy hot goalie that year. This year we're not getting out played nearly as much and are actually the better team on a decent number of nights.



Yeah Mackinnon and Mikko are probably unlikely to hit these same numbers again next year and it would be reasonable to expect a 70-80 point season from both of them instead of 90-100.


But at the same time, between all of the rookies we have right now, it should also be reasonable to expect 1, maybe 2 of them to take a decent step forward next year and really add some quality secondary scoring to the forward group to help make up for Mack and Mikko "Regressing" a bit. I'm not saying we should expect all 4 of JTC/Jost/Kerfoot/Kamenev to take a step forward, but 1 or maybe 2 of them stand a good chance of doing that.


Basically, I think unless we get extremely unlucky next year and have basically all the negative things happen to us that includes Mack/Mikko regressing, none of our young forwards taking a step forward, none of our young Dmen progressing further, and both of our goalies regressing... Unless all of those things happen next year, we should at least be in the same position as we are right now in the thick of the playoff race and playing more meaningful hockey down the stretch.


And if everything goes perfectly, I really think we could be a contender for the Central division title. On the backs of Mackinnon, Rantanen, and a 100% healthy Varly/Bernier alone, this team could compete for the Central title next year I think.

 

[MarkT]

I think there’s a big difference in him surprising himself on some shots that go in and them being lucky but that’s all perception.

Not that I’m doubting you but I’d love some examples (if you can off the top of your head) other than the wrap-around goal because I simply can’t think of any.

It’s fair to assume at least some of the rookies will take another step forward next year, especially someone like Jost who has looked increasingly more comfortable as the season has gone on. Expecting them all to contribute more is a recipe for disappointment but I think it’s safe so assume they won’t all regress either.

For a guy like Girard, I think the league figured him out quite quickly - we saw him get pushed over a few times trying his spin a little to frequently in the first couple months. I’d expect him to play at or around the same level next year at a minimum as he’s been mostly staying responsible defensively and it’s not like he has any major defensive weaknesses that haven’t already been noticed.

Kerfoot seems like a wildcard to me, could easily regress but also wouldn’t be surprised if he replicated this year’s numbers in a more sustainable way (less goals off his stomach).

Compher I’m quite hopeful will take another step next year. He looked awesome at points early in the year and I think fatigue has really worn him down as well.

One thing that does give me more confidence in Compher and Jost - in particular - is their very high end puck/hand eye skills. They both have a nose for where to be and great stick skills, things that are a lot harder to improve after coming into the league than strength, conditioning, etc.

If anything makes me hopeful for next year though it’s the play of Barrie and Z that I think you’ve sorely underrated here. Obviously Zadorov’s biggest challenge is consistency but he looks like he’s really starting to put it together, as he did before his injury last year. Barrie has been better than I think anyone hoped this year - think whatever you want about him in his own zone - but I think we have a capable top 4 (trending up) for the first in 10+ years.

I don’t think anyone expects Mack to score 120 points next year, but if he hits 90 and Rants hits 70 next year I think we’re still fine. And who knows how many JT will bring on the second line.

Sorry I can't think of any other specific examples off the top of my head. I'd have to go back and look at all his goal highlights. That actually sounds like fun and if I do it I'll get back to you. Basically though, without any specific examples, I don't believe he is capable of being as accurate as he has been on a consistent, long-term basis. He's simply not missing. He's picking corners left and right. It's quite often this season that one inch off on his shots would make the difference between a goal and no goal. Those are the situations that might change next season.

As for the young guys, sure Jost and Compher look like they should progress next season, but how many times, on how many teams, have we seen that not happen? And Kerfoot, honestly I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up as a career AHLer - he fits the mold: small, offensively gifted, defensively terrible. As for Girard, I think you're overestimating how many teams have him figured out. Just wait till the offseason when opposing coaches have time to study tape. Then it will be a real test for Girard's development.

In terms of the D, yeah Z looks good, but he's 22 and next season could see him struggling yet again to find consistency. Would anyone be shocked if that happened? As for Barrie, this is not the first time he's played well for a stretch. And when he plays poorly offensively he's much more harm to the team than good - that's not what I want in a top 4 defenseman on a good team. So I disagree that we have a solid top 4. We might, and I'll be very happy if we do, but I certainly don't think it's anywhere close to settled.

What signs? This is the second youngest team in the league. An offseason for players like Jost, Compher, Kerfoot, Girard, Toninato etc after their first full NHL campaigns will be good for them. Tyson Jost likely won't be a 20 point player next season.

This team's defence is looking the best it has in years, and we're talking like 10/11 years. Tyson Barrie has shown us he can step up and play a top pairing role, and we know what EJ can do. Continued growth from Zadorov and Girard and that is a legitimate top-4, with a great PK-guy Nemeth on the 3rd pairing.

Things are looking up for this team. I know it's tough to get your hopes up because of the 13-14 season but the 13-14 season SHOULD have propelled this team further. Instead, they replaced Stastny with Iginla, signed Beauchemin, traded O'Reilly, and in general went for the "big, veteran" team that you see the Oilers attempting to build today. That was the problem. Sakic/Roy looked at that team and completely mismanaged it, save for the O'Reilly trade.

That mistake hopefully won't happen again. I believe Sakic knows this.

The signs I mentioned in my previous posts. And this isn't about the 13/14 season. I follow the whole league. I've learned the recognize the signs of a team regressing from one year to the next.

Yes, the avs could be worse next year. But is that really that big of a deal? The NhL has natural ebb and flow. Being so young, there’s lots of room for improvement.

The team could be worse next year standings-wise but still have made positive steps towards being a contender.

More important to look at the progression of the players and roles rather than just look at the points they accumulate in the standings.

Um. Yes? I don't know about you, but I don't watch hockey or cheer for a hockey team just to see players develop. Yes that's a part of it and it's something I like to see, but if these developing players are losing every game and not playing in meaningful games, it's not much fun to watch.

 

[Wintersun]

Anyone else want to bring back Stastny on a 3 x 5-6M$ deal ? Think he could do a lot for this team, providing a solid second line center who can take some weight off the top line's shoulders. Also would be a good player to have around for guys like Jost and Compher. I'd be pretty confident going into next season with that group of forwards :

Landy - MacK - Rantanen
Compher - Stastny - Jost
Wilson - Kamenev - Kerfoot
Nieto - Soderberg - Comeau

 

[henchman21]

If the Avs could get Stastny back on a 3 year deal, they should jump on it. He'd be perfect for the #2C role while the other players on developing, but could transition to a lower line role by the end of the contract.

 

[Pokecheque]

Yeah if they take a step back next year I'll be disappointed. I'm not expecting INSTANT CONTENDER next season but this year finally looks like the "progress toward the goal" I've been asking for since Day One of this perpetual rebuild, so for them to regress once again after one resurgent year feels like more of the same. But there's reason to believe that THIS time, it won't happen. If they make smart moves this offseason (like, y'know, not signing a couple old farts who can't skate to bad contracts) there's no reason to believe they won't at least hold sway in the Central. Obviously other factors, like Chicago and St. Louis (maybe) successfully retooling, will play a part.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

Anyone else want to bring back Stastny on a 3 x 5-6M$ deal ? Think he could do a lot for this team, providing a solid second line center who can take some weight off the top line's shoulders. Also would be a good player to have around for guys like Jost and Compher. I'd be pretty confident going into next season with that group of forwards :

Landy - MacK - Rantanen
Compher - Stastny - Jost
Wilson - Kamenev - Kerfoot
Nieto - Soderberg - Comeau

Didn't we learn enough from Stuart, Iginla and Beach? I would offer Stastny one year deal, but more lucrative.

 

[shadow1]

Didn't we learn enough from Stuart, Iginla and Beach? I would offer Stastny one year deal, but more lucrative.

To be fair, Stastny is three years younger than all of those guys were when the Avalanche signed/acquired them.

 

[forsbergavs32]

If we can't get JT (whether he re-signs with the Isles or doesn't want to come here) then Staz would be a fine consolation for us. Either way id really like to sign someone to help take the load off of the Mack line a bit.

 

[henchman21]

Stastny on a 3 year deal would be about perfect.... #2C for a year or two, then transition to a #3C when Soda is gone or regressing. Leaving a good timeline for Jost to develop into that center role if he is ready, or for Bowers to get another year in college, then a year pro, before that role. Stastny has shown that his game will age well. Some injury concerns, but that isn't all bad (it gives the younger players chances).

 

[LieutenantDangle]

Not only the things mentioned about staz above but he would also slot into the top pp unit with Mack and rants and that’s be really deadly

 

[Barklez]

Sorry I can't think of any other specific examples off the top of my head. I'd have to go back and look at all his goal highlights. That actually sounds like fun and if I do it I'll get back to you. Basically though, without any specific examples, I don't believe he is capable of being as accurate as he has been on a consistent, long-term basis. He's simply not missing. He's picking corners left and right. It's quite often this season that one inch off on his shots would make the difference between a goal and no goal. Those are the situations that might change next season.

Let me know if you do find some. Because what I see is a guy that has quit trying to only pick corners and is now getting a lot of pucks on net. He has scores handfuls of short side goals that are always going to be open for him if he is fast enough on his release and that isn’t something that’s going to slow down on him. He’s been scoring 5 hole on the regular as well. Yes he’s picking corners when they’re there but he isn’t missing high and wide constantly any more because he’s diversified where he targets. He’s now a threat to score high or low, short side or far and goalies are being embarrassed by it. Not to mention half the time he has Mikko on the far side ready to exploit any goalies over committing. Now again I’d be surprised if he keeps up this pace but I also think it’s more sustainable than it seems.

I think this also explains why he seems surprised by some of his shots this year. He’s going for the safer option and it’s still working for him because of his release and power. Watch any good goal scorer in the league. A lot of it is confidence. He’s starting to realize he can flat out beat anybody in the league, he just needs to give himself the opportunities.

As for the young guys, sure Jost and Compher look like they should progress next season, but how many times, on how many teams, have we seen that not happen? And Kerfoot, honestly I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up as a career AHLer - he fits the mold: small, offensively gifted, defensively terrible. As for Girard, I think you're overestimating how many teams have him figured out. Just wait till the offseason when opposing coaches have time to study tape. Then it will be a real test for Girard's development.

Teams study tape all year. They know what he brings to the table and they know how to try to exploit him, he’s doing fine adjusting so far. Don’t forget this goes both ways too, he’s studying his own areas improvement just as much. He might fall into a bit of a sophomore slump but it won’t be because teams figured him out over the summer.

In terms of the D, yeah Z looks good, but he's 22 and next season could see him struggling yet again to find consistency. Would anyone be shocked if that happened? As for Barrie, this is not the first time he's played well for a stretch. And when he plays poorly offensively he's much more harm to the team than good - that's not what I want in a top 4 defenseman on a good team. So I disagree that we have a solid top 4. We might, and I'll be very happy if we do, but I certainly don't think it's anywhere close to settled.

No, people wouldn’t be shocked if Z struggled again, but the trajectory of his play implies that he will continue to struggle less and less.

Personally I think people way overstate Barrie’s defensive deficiencies. Sure he gives up the odd play or let’s a guy past when he shouldn’t but that’s not his game. He’s perfectly capable defensively as long as he’s got a steady, bigger guy beside him. He’s still a great piece in a top 4.

Obviously the D still isn’t a strength by any means but I think EJ, Z, Barrie, and Girard are good enough to roll with. They got us here this year even with a host of injuries, they can come close enough to doing it again next year to not be a concern IMO.

Edit: Christ that was bad formatting. Blaming it on being on mobile!

 

[Pokecheque]

Big differences between Stuart/Iginla/Beauchemin and Stastny. Anyone who knew anything about hockey knew all three of those guys were well, WELL past their respective primes. I mean, Iginla was on his third team FFS (not counting Dallas, the team that drafted him). And frankly, in the case of Stuart, his prime wasn't all that great to begin with. Also, all three of those guys hosed the Avs because of the (somewhat stupid) 35+ rule. Stastny is neither of those things. He is not an ideal option, but he's far from a bad option. The only other thing you could do is dump a pick/prospect for a more established center or hope one of Jost/Kerfoot/Compher figures it out.

 

[MarkT]

Stastny is going be heavily in demand as a free agent. He's going to be one of the best forwards available. So to get him probably means overpaying either in terms of dollars or years.

 

[S E P H]

The biggest issue for the team to take the next level into consistent playoff team is figuring out the 2nd line. A #2C needs to be found/developed and some adequate talent put around that player to produce at a 45-55 point level. If that is found, this team will be a consistent playoff team. To take a further step into cup contention the #1G and #1D needs figured out as well, but a step at a time and hopefully the D is in the organization or will be with one of the 3 1st rounders the next two drafts.

Ottawa's pick or even these next two drafts should help us with that, in terms of whether we draft with picks or trade them for immediate impact. As for your #1 defender argument, perhaps Avs can get buy with "sum is greater than its parts". This year should give us a clearer direction in what is needed for the future, but anything can happen in the playoffs. I know you're probably going to disagree with me, but EJ has been playing like a low-end #1 defender on the defencive side of things all season long.

 

[Murzu]

Lets just add Tavares and be happy campers.

 

[5280]

Lets just add Tavares and be happy campers.

 

[Murzu]

 

[CoachBadkitten]

According to Custance, Adam Mascherin told the Panthers he’s not signing with them. Going to look for a trade, and could re-enter the draft if they don’t move him. Remember Mascherin was who Hepple wanted, bet we look into that.

 

[henchman21]

Ottawa's pick or even these next two drafts should help us with that, in terms of whether we draft with it or trade it for immediate impact. As for your #1 defender argument, perhaps Avs can get buy with "sum is greater than the parts". This year should give us a clearer direction in what is needed for the future, but anything can happen in the playoffs. I know you're probably going to disagree with me, but EJ has been playing like a low-end #1 defender on the defencive side of things.

On the defensive side, EJ is fine as a #1, but he doesn't provide the offense of a #1 and that keeps him from being that caliber of a defensemen IMO. There could be a sum greater than the parts sort of thing, but that doesn't win a Cup all that often in the NHL, and when it does, there is usually a reasoning (IE Pens last year having 2 top 5 centers and Nashville losing their #1C before the series). On top of that, EJ will be regressing within a few years. His age and injury history pretty much guarantee he won't be as effective at 32-33. So even if EJ is a #1 now, you shouldn't be planning on that when he is 33 and this team should be competing.

 

[Murzu]

According to Custance, Adam Mascherin told the Panthers he’s not signing with them. Going to look for a trade, and could re-enter the draft if they don’t move him. Remember Mascherin was who Hepple wanted, bet we look into that.

Yup, he'd be an Av if Panthers didn't pick him. We ended up with Morrison.

Will his game translate to NHL? Never seen him play, he is a midget though.

 

[5280]

I think things are a lot different this year.

1)one of our best players is not set to leave
2)we have a better team
3)2013-2014 was kind of a miracle
4)our cubbard is not bare

 

[Murzu]

I think things are a lot different this year.

1)one of our best players is not set to leave
2)we have a better team
3)2013-2014 was kind of a miracle
4)our cubbard is not bare

What a time to be alive.

 

[henchman21]

Yup, he'd be an Av if Panthers didn't pick him. We ended up with Morrison.

Will his game translate to NHL? Never seen him play, he is a midget though.

I think it will, he plays with the tenacity that you need out of a smaller player to translate. He's completely unafraid to battle and go to dirty areas. I'd quite easily offer up one of the 2nd rounders in this year's draft for him.