Auston Matthews Discussion VII:

[Narow]

Differences in offensive zone start%s doesn't really mean much over the course of a whole season, plus Babcock will keep playing his best offensive weapons in favorable situations. Just as he did with Datsyuk and Zetterberg in his last 3 years with the Wings.

In comparison with Laine, it's more likely Auston will increase the difference in production between the two next season, IMO.

Not sure what laine has to do with this...he will faces bigger challenges next year too.

And thats true witg datsyuk towards the end of his career he creeped up towards 59% (37.2% OZFO%)

But if you look further back it was alot lowet, probably when datsyuk was a bit faster and closer to prime.

For example in 10-11 season he is at 47.5% (28.4% OZFO%)

So i can imagine that has to do with datsyuk getting older not being able to be as effective as he once was.

Im comparison Matthews centering two rookies is at
63.2% (40.7% OZFO%)

Totally understandable tho again. But expect this to drop alot as he progresses even under babcock i would think.

But who knows i could very well be wrong

 

[Legion34]

Teama will focus on him alot more, goalies will study his play over the summer...teams will have whole gameplans for him alone.

Add to this that babs may very well give him tougher asignments. And it is not unthinkable...

I think it is likelyer he regressea in number of goals that points tho (not saying it will happend.

For example here are some superstar rookies who score similar or more .

Crosby rookie 39 (missed 1 game)102p
Crosby 2nd 36 (missed 3 games) 120p

Ovi rookie 52 (missed 1 game) 106p
Ovi 2nd 46 (full season) 92p

Ofcourse it can go the otherway aswell

Malkin rookie 33 (missed 4 games) 85p
Malkin 2nd 47 (full season) 106p

Its unpredictable man.

Some never exceed their rookie year some far exceeds it.

There are cases both both.

For Matthews i think his goals may go down a bit but assists go way up

I agree that we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves. Many regress after a record breaking year. We don't know but we have to keep in mind Matthews went through a 13 game drought when he was dominant. But incredibly snake bit. He could have scored a goal a game almost. It was
Insane. So he went 15% of the season dominating and not scoring from high scoring areas. (I don't count the 7 game drought, he really wasn't his best there). Second. He was so incredibly under rewarded with points due to hyman. Zachary was borderline top 10 in expected points 5 on 5 with the scoring chances auston fed him and he scores like 2 points.

Auston had 40 goals. 38 of which were direct repeatable goals (1 empty net and 1 pinball). If anything after watching 82 games and the amount of high quality chances he gets, as
Nuts as it sounds he seemed snake bit.

In contrast to our other friend who scored 36 goals (3 empty net, 3 defender/goalie actually
Knocking a wide shot into their own net).

I'm not expecting 50-60 next year. I don't expect him
To regress. The underlying numbers
Are too good

 

[Narow]

I agree that we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves. Many regress after a record breaking year. We don't know but we have to keep in mind Matthews went through a 13 game drought when he was dominant. But incredibly snake bit. He could have scored a goal a game almost. It was
Insane. So he went 15% of the season dominating and not scoring from high scoring areas. (I don't count the 7 game drought, he really wasn't his best there). Second. He was so incredibly under rewarded with points due to hyman. Zachary was borderline top 10 in expected points 5 on 5 with the scoring chances auston fed him and he scores like 2 points.

Auston had 40 goals. 38 of which were direct repeatable goals (1 empty net and 1 pinball). If anything after watching 82 games and the amount of high quality chances he gets, as
Nuts as it sounds he seemed snake bit.

In contrast to our other friend who scored 36 goals (3 empty net, 3 defender/goalie actually
Knocking a wide shot into their own net).

I'm not expecting 50-60 next year. I don't expect him
To regress. The underlying numbers
Are too good

Very true also that 7 game drought towards the end. He did follow that up with a crazy almost goal per game stretch tho^^

But i think gamblers fallacy can very much be at play here. But ill tell you what if matthews gets as manu chances as this year + has teammate with better finnish + capitalizes a bit more (he himself did miss some empty nets during that 13 game stretch. God he was snake bitten) he could even hit 50.

But well see im sure he will surprise us once more.

And he has only been playing hockey proffesionally like 5 years !?!?

 

[BigWilly]

Rookie year

Player|GP|Goals|Assists|Points|PPG
Auston Matthews|82|40|29|69|0.84
Jack Eichel|81|24|32|56|0.69|

 

[Narow]

Rookie year

Player|GP|Goals|Assists|Points|PPG
Auston Matthews|82|40|29|69|0.84
Jack Eichel|81|24|32|56|0.69|

Coule you make a table like that but add laine, gaudreau, mackinnon and kane?

 

[Superstar]

Personally i believe he will stay more or less on same ...but less goals. Mainly because he scores most of his goals in similar fashion which means its easier to counter.

Second is teams will put alot more resources on him.

Third babcock will hand him tougher asignments due to how well he has performed and shown he can handle it.

After all he was mostly line matched with 4th lines at home (yet he did better on the road) and had the highest ozone starts on the team. I expect this to change next season.

Fourth factor is the biggest unseen factor, injuries. He played full 82 games..he may not next season.

So in my opinion, if i am correct and those do happend and he still produces about the same it still means much improvements

It won't be easier to counter him. TSN a couple of months ago had a feature on TV where they showed how and where Matthews score his goals...everyone saw it, but teams didn't figure him out. Great players don't get figured out, they find ways of getting better and better. Also, Matthews didn't get consistent premium powerplay time either, so if Babcock increases his time, his production should go up.

He should also improve in the face-off circle, which will help more with his possession numbers.

Injuries could always be a factor, but we're assuming he remains healthy.

 

[Narow]

It won't be easier to counter him. TSN a couple of months ago had a feature on TV where they showed how and where Matthews score his goals...everyone saw it, but teams didn't figure him out. Great players don't get figured out, they find ways of getting better and better. Also, Matthews didn't get consistent premium powerplay time either, so if Babcock increases his time, his production should go up.

He should also improve in the face-off circle, which will help more with his possession numbers.

Injuries could always be a factor, but we're assuming he remains healthy.

Yeah thats true... i have never played hockey so i dont really know but when looking at him in the crease alll i can think of is to stop him i would do it like this.

2 defenders on him at all times in our own zone by the crease with him. One of them only has one task, to lift matthews stick, the other to clear the puck as soon as iy comes near him..just shoot it away xD alternatively the defender doibg the stickwork plays the body if matthews is too slippery with the stick.

But i am simplistic as hell ^^

What are the realistic countermeassures to a goalscorer like him? I mean what do you guys expect teams to try and do to stop him? (Outside of keepibg possesion that is)

 

[Dirty Dan]

Player|GP|Goals|Assists|Points|PPG
Auston Matthews|82|40|29|69|0.84
Laine|73|36|28|64|0.88
Gaudreau|80|24|40|64|0.80
MacKinnon|82|24|39|63|0.77
Kane|82|21|51|72|0.88
Jack Eichel|81|24|32|56|0.69|

 

[Narow]

Player|GP|Goals|Assists|Points|PPG
Auston Matthews|82|40|29|69|0.84
Laine|73|36|28|64|0.88
Gaudreau|80|24|40|64|0.80
MacKinnon|82|24|39|63|0.77
Kane|82|21|51|72|0.88
Jack Eichel|81|24|32|56|0.69|

Many thanks!!! Makes you appreciate what an crazy year this is.

Also Matthews with 40 is only second rookie with 40 or more since ovi crosby rookie season

All of those are very strong rookie seasons and our boys laine and matthews stick out alot due to their amazing goalscoring touch, just incredible stuff

 

[SEER]

Re-posting this, since it was just posted in the locked thread last night.. Thanks to those who quoted me.. Can't reply in there..

This is my 5th Montage for... Auston Matthews (#34)..., now just finished his 1st NHL Rookie Regular Season... playing Center position with the Toronto Maple Leafs... and being the 2016 #1 NHL Draft Pick... We are headed into playoffs, with a big part of Matthews as a reason..

Auston Matthews
Forward -- shoots L
Born Sep 17 1997 -- Scottsdale, AZ
19 yrs. ago
Height 6.03 -- Weight 213

RECENT STATS:
(*Up to April 10th 2017 - end of regular season)

2014-15 USNTDP Juniors - USHL
24 Games... 20 Goals... 28 Assists... 48 Points... +20 *2PPG
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2014-15 U.S. National U18 Team - USDP
60 Games... 55 Goals... 61 Assists... 116 Points... +18 *PPG+
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2014-15 U.S.A. National U18 Team - WJC U-18
7 Games... 8 Goals... 7 Assists... 15 Points... +11 PPG+
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2014-15 U.S.A. National U20 Team - WJC U-20
5 Games... 1 Goal... 2 Assists... 3 Points... +/- 0
---------------------------------------------------------------
2015-16 *ZSC Lions - NLA (*Zurich, Switzerland)
5 Games... 1 Goal... 2 Assists... 3 Points... 0
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2015-16 U.S.A. National U-20 Team - WJC U-20
7 Games... 7 Goals... 4 Assists... 11 Points... +6 *PPG+
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2015-16 Team U.S.A. - WC
10 Games... 6 Goals... 3 Assists... 9 Points... +/- 0
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* 2016-17 - Team U.S.A. - World Cup Of Hockey
3 Games... 2 Goals... 1 Assist... 3 Points... +2
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* 2016-17 Toronto Maple Leafs - NHL
82 Games... 40 Goals... 29 Assists... 69 Points... +2 *8 G.W.G.'s

Clips include: All 50 of Auston's first NHL Rookie Season goals.. of the 2016-17 season..; two season O.T. shoot-out goals...
and a few other 2016-17 clips and photos.. (with some nice Joe Bowen audio play-by-play.., mixed into sections..)

Matthewstruck: *All 40 Auston Matthews 2016-17 Reg. Season Goals - TML (HD)

​

 

[Legion34]

Very true also that 7 game drought towards the end. He did follow that up with a crazy almost goal per game stretch tho^^

But i think gamblers fallacy can very much be at play here. But ill tell you what if matthews gets as manu chances as this year + has teammate with better finnish + capitalizes a bit more (he himself did miss some empty nets during that 13 game stretch. God he was snake bitten) he could even hit 50.

But well see im sure he will surprise us once more.

And he has only been playing hockey proffesionally like 5 years !?!?

I agree. One major diff between Matty and patty is that while 34 gets tons of chances, he doesn't always finish. If laine gets an empty net. It is in

I am predicting 38-45 goals next year. Matts needs to finish better.

And no. He has only been playing professional against men for 2 years (Swiss and NHL). He has been playing organized hockey at a high level since he was like 14 I think. The story goes that he played like scrimmages and pond style on synthetic ice and never left the rink. Parents couldn't afford for him to play on a travel team. Eventually plays on bobcats (triple A) and gets invited to a tournament--- destroys everyone and then gets invited to US camp.

They made him try out cause no one knew who he was and he dummied them.

That's my understanding. May be minor variations but yes only real top level coaching at like 15

 

[Griffin76]

So if he gets 25G and 40A do we consider it a sophomore slump?

 

[cookie]

I definitely think a reason why Matthews game is the way it is is due to his linemates. I'm not going to degrade Hyman, but his offensive game only shines when he's behind the net. It's him dumping the pick in and chasing after it only to fail to make a play 95% of the time. He can't do much along the half boards or even in the high slot because his playmaking game is just so limited and he doesn't have a good or a particular hard shot either.

As a comparison, when Babcock plays Matthews with Nylander, Marner, or Kadri after a penalty kill, the line looks infinitely more dangerous. If the Leafs had a more skilled power forward, plays wouldn't die in the corner. I've been wondering how well a guy like Greening or Laich would've worked beside Matthews.... at the very least it would increase their trade value.

 

[Narow]

I agree. One major diff between Matty and patty is that while 34 gets tons of chances, he doesn't always finish. If laine gets an empty net. It is in

I am predicting 38-45 goals next year. Matts needs to finish better.

And no. He has only been playing professional against men for 2 years (Swiss and NHL). He has been playing organized hockey at a high level since he was like 14 I think. The story goes that he played like scrimmages and pond style on synthetic ice and never left the rink. Parents couldn't afford for him to play on a travel team. Eventually plays on bobcats (triple A) and gets invited to a tournament--- destroys everyone and then gets invited to US camp.

They made him try out cause no one knew who he was and he dummied them.

That's my understanding. May be minor variations but yes only real top level coaching at like 15

Yes organized hockey is what i mean (rawly translated from my language it is club hockey so didnt know how to word it).

And yes patty finish has been downright spooky at times. Especially early in the season you just know it was in. He had like 25% shooting deep into the season too, pretty cray cray abd on low % chances/areas too!

Anyways Mattys finish has not been bad at all his % is rather high considering how many shots he has taken but finish can be improved which is a scary thought.

Likewise Laines shot generation could improve alot (it goes the right direction. He had a couple 7-6 shots per game games towards the end there) which also is a scary thought ^^ hopefully he gains enough strength and explosiveness to create at a higher rate this offseason and become less dependant on teammates (again even in the season we saw this go towards right direction too)

In their rookie season they have been a bit of ying and yang to eachother.. haha i think they would compliment eachother pretty nicely.

Anyways this is Mattys thread i feel its disrespectful talking about another rookie here.

My optimistic prediction for matty next year

50 goals 90 points

My peasimistic

20 goals 30 assists (lol i expect a worrysome injury here)

My "realistic" prediction

33-45 goals and 30-60 assist

Hey that is pretty much everything in between haha

 

[cookie]

IIRC the sophomore slump concept has been disproven

http://lastwordonsports.com/2015/10/19/no-evidence-of-sophomore-slump-nhl-rookie-skaters/

On average, however, when analyzing the statistics of the 122 skaters who have received votes for the Calder Trophy between the 2005-06 season and 2012-13, there was no significant statistical drop after their initial season (player statistics for the 2012-13 season were prorated for the purposes of comparison with the rest of the data).

 

[Polaris1010]

It won't be easier to counter him. TSN a couple of months ago had a feature on TV where they showed how and where Matthews score his goals...everyone saw it, but teams didn't figure him out. Great players don't get figured out, they find ways of getting better and better. Also, Matthews didn't get consistent premium powerplay time either, so if Babcock increases his time, his production should go up.

Matthews is really different, in that every play, no matter where it is, the puck is headed directly for the net.

Marner, sometimes he gets too cute with the puck.

Did Matthews did that all season long?

It was all no nonsense, he will get the puck to the net beating his man or passing it off, then beat his man to the net.

 

[Narow]

IIRC the sophomore slump concept has been disproven

http://lastwordonsports.com/2015/10/19/no-evidence-of-sophomore-slump-nhl-rookie-skaters/

They are speaking averages which balances itself out at some skaters achieve lower and some higher...

This just means its a crapshoot and can go either way as i understand it?

As they say its unlikely if you take 5 calder rookies that all of them have a down year...

 

[Kelly]

Love these videos man, really appreciate them. Have you done a montage of Nylander/Marners seasons yet?

Edit: NVM found some

 

[TDK67]

This is basically what i think will happend a bit less goals but much more assists.


As for sheltering i know that, but he did top out at highest zone percentage on the team...actually among all rookies aswell. This will change as we have seen he can handle toughet situations.(and zone starts perfectly understandable when dealing with a rookie. Even more so a rookie full time C...centering rookies)

But babcock matches him against mostly 4th lines. As seen in latest Chicago game for example. This is not a bad thing its just that next year im certain team will go full shutdown on this guy with all they got.

Which is also weirs because his record on the road is actually better than at home with the favourable matchups. Haha. So in this regard im not worries at all.

And honestly a b2b 40 goal season would not be out of the question either. I just think its likelier he wont reach that. But then again he did it this year despite two long droughts..but scoring 10% of your goals in the first game helps even that out aswell.

I have zero worries about this guys skill or play, he will definatly not regress as someone wrote. If his production drops its due to factors outside his controll.

(Teams gameplans, injuries, goalies studying him, linemates etc etc)

Just want to get that out there

You mentioned this a couple of times and it's not really true...at all.

Matthews still faced top forward lines and top defensive pairs more than any other lines or defensive pairings over the course of the year. Furthermore, like you noted, on the road where Babcock couldn't get favorable matchups, Matthews actually scored more. I do think
he'll get even more attention in his 2nd year but his skill set is so dynamic that it's very hard to completely shut down. And we've already seen teams double and triple team him in the slot, but when he's on his game (which is 95% of the time) it doesn't phase him and he still dominates on the shot count.

Also, I completely disagree with the idea that Matthews scores all of his goals in one way. In fact I'd go so far as to say he's one of the most dynamic goal scorers in the league (finishing 2nd in the Rocket race is proof of that). His arsenal is much more varied than traditional snipers (like Laine for example) as he scores with tip ins, snapshots, back hands, etc and both from in close or a ways away (but he's definitely not sniping anything from the blue line). The only thing he lacks is a solid one timer but he makes up for that with nearly elite level skill in every other shot category.

 

[Narow]

You mentioned this a couple of times and it's not really true...at all.

Matthews still faced top forward lines and top defensive pairs more than any other lines or defensive pairings over the course of the year. Furthermore, like you noted, on the road where Babcock couldn't get favorable matchups, Matthews actually scored more. I do think
he'll get even more attention in his 2nd year but his skill set is so dynamic that it's very hard to completely shut down. And we've already seen teams double and triple team him in the slot, but when he's on his game (which is 95% of the time) it doesn't phase him and he still dominates on the shot count.

Also, I completely disagree with the idea that Matthews scores all of his goals in one way. In fact I'd go so far as to say he's one of the most dynamic goal scorers in the league (finishing 2nd in the Rocket race is proof of that). His arsenal is much more varied than traditional snipers (like Laine for example) as he scores with tip ins, snapshots, back hands, etc and both from in close or a ways away (but he's definitely not sniping anything from the blue line). The only thing he lacks is a solid one timer but he makes up for that with nearly elite level skill in every other shot category.

Cant remember my comment right now but if i wrote one way that is a misstake, meant similar way. Meaning close to the net..i have watched him for a long time and quite a few games this season i know he can score in a multitude ways so thats not what i was trying to say at all. Sorry if i came off as such.

And i dont understand that chart really. I was just pointing out that teams have not use their shutdown lines against him every game (used chicago as a example where he was up against hartman for example..) i was not saying he only faced 4th lines... my point was that next season teams will likely use their shutdown lines against hin to an higher degree than they did this year.

He was a top 2 goalscorer this year teams will focus alot more on getting him off the scoreboard than they allready have.

It will be ve very interesting to see how he does. And well if he allready faced most of the toughest lineups on the team in his rookie year while centering rookies.....mcdavid should feel threatened

Could you explain this chart for me?

And how would crosbys/ovis/mcdavids chart look like in conparison so i can get a better feel for what a players chart that you really want to shutdown looks like?

 

[TDK67]

Cant remember mThey comment right now but if i wrote one way that is a misstake, meant similar way. Meaning close to the net..i have watched him for a long time and quite a few games this season i know he can score in a multitude ways so thats not what i was trying to say at all. Sorry if i came off as such.

And i dont understand that chart really. I was just pointing out that teams have not use their shutdown lines against him every game (used chicago as a example where he was up against hartman for example..) i was not saying he only faced 4th lines... my point was that next season teams will likely use their shutdown lines against hin to an higher degree than they did this year.

He was a top 2 goalscorer this year teams will focus alot more on getting him off the scoreboard than they allready have.

It will be ve very interesting to see how he does. And well if he allready faced most of the toughest lineups on the team in his rookie year while centering rookies.....mcdavid should feel threatened

Could you explain this chart for me?

And how would crosbys/ovis/mcdavids chart look like in conparison so i can get a better feel for what a players chart that you really want to shutdown looks like?

I know you're not disparaging Matthews but I wanted to clarify some stuff that might be a misconception.

Chart basically says how much Matthews spent on the ice against other team's most used to least used players(usage usually an indicator of quality--Crosby gets the most TOI among PIT forwards, McDavid among EDM forwards, etc).

The numbers indicate each player (12F, 6D) on the ice ranked by ice time. I.e. 1 = most ice time, 12 = least ice time.

The bars on the right half represent how much time Matthews spent against the other team's players. Bars on the left indicate how much time Matthews spent with his own players (that are also ranked by TOI). Red line indicates league average.

You can see that Matthews' bars are th largest in the 1-3 forward marks and 1-2 defense marks, indicating most of his minute distribution went into facing the top 3 forwards and top 2 defensmen on opposing teams.

Here are some other elite young talent's charts:

 

[Narow]

I know you're not disparaging Matthews but I wanted to clarify some stuff that might be a misconception.

Chart basically says how much Matthews spent on the ice against other team's most used to least used players(usage usually an indicator of quality--Crosby gets the most TOI among PIT forwards, McDavid among EDM forwards, etc).

The numbers indicate each player (12F, 6D) on the ice ranked by ice time. I.e. 1 = most ice time, 12 = least ice time.

The bars on the right half represent how much time Matthews spent against the other team's players. Bars on the left indicate how much time Matthews spent with his own players (that are also ranked by TOI). Red line indicates league average.

You can see that Matthews' bars are th largest in the 1-3 forward marks and 1-2 defense marks, indicating most of his minute distribution went into facing the top 3 forwards and top 2 defensmen on opposing teams.

Here are some other elite young talent's charts:

Alright very cool thank you!

Matthews allready similar to laine and laine plays with a top c xD just goes to show you teams allready have considered him a huge threat this season (rightfully so)

Some of these are nuts like mcdavids. Eichel gets nice respect too.

I dont know why but i find it freaking amazing these young guys just jump into the toughest league in the world and basically wrecks it.

Im 95.2% certain we will see Matthews step over the average treshhold on top pairings and such next season


Even then it doesnt look like teams got much to add ^^ im presuming mcdavids is what team are at most willing to spend on these players.

How about ovi/crosby?

Especially interesting in one line team if there is any just to get an idea what a theoretical max is on this.

Again thank you so much

 

[TDK67]

Alright very cool thank you!

Matthews allready similar to laine and laine plays with a top c xD just goes to show you teams allready have considered him a huge threat this season (rightfully so)

Some of these are nuts like mcdavids. Eichel gets nice respect too.

I dont know why but i find it freaking amazing these young guys just jump into the toughest league in the world and basically wrecks it.

Im 95.2% certain we will see Matthews step over the average treshhold on top pairings and such next season


Even then it doesnt look like teams got much to add ^^ im presuming mcdavids is what team are at most willing to spend on these players.

How about ovi/crosby?

Especially interesting in one line team if there is any just to get an idea what a theoretical max is on this.

Again thank you so much

I'm on mobile so not super easy to post each picture. You can look up whoever you want on the site where this comes from:

http://hockeyviz.com

Click on the team, then the player and a ton of various charts will pop up (including the ones I've posted).

 

[Narow]

I'm on mobile so not super easy to post each picture. You can look up whoever you want on the site where this comes from:

http://hockeyviz.com

Click on the team, then the player and a ton of various charts will pop up (including the ones I've posted).

Alright, Many thanks TDK.

 

[TDK67]

Alright, Many thanks TDK.

No prob!