Auston Matthews Discussion VII:

[Warden of the North]

Next year Rocket Richard trophy

 

[mallory67]

sorry, why is he scoring less than this year exactly??

folks, this is a superstar player. they aren't like normal players.

40-40 next year, minimum. And that is hardly a lofty prediction given he played with a 4th liner on his wing all this season and did not get superstar minutes like say Crosby or Eichel do.

Right on. Matthews is close to being "generational".

As the Leafs improve, so will Matthews numbers. If the Leafs do well Matthews will be over 40/40 and a top ten scorer in the NHL next year.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Personally i believe he will stay more or less on same ...but less goals. Mainly because he scores most of his goals in similar fashion which means its easier to counter.

Second is teams will put alot more resources on him.

Third babcock will hand him tougher asignments due to how well he has performed and shown he can handle it.

After all he was mostly line matched with 4th lines at home (yet he did better on the road) and had the highest ozone starts on the team. I expect this to change next season.

Fourth factor is the biggest unseen factor, injuries. He played full 82 games..he may not next season.

So in my opinion, if i am correct and those do happend and he still produces about the same it still means much improvements

Yeah he scores his goals in a similar way, but there's a reason he's first in the league in even strength goals. It's because you can't stop him, and I don't think that'll change. Everyone knows exactly how ovechkin wants to score and look at him

 

[RayNibbs]

Right on. Matthews is close to being "generational".

As the Leafs improve, so will Matthews numbers. If the Leafs do well Matthews will be over 40/40 and a top ten scorer in the NHL next year.

He's one of only 4 to ever score 40 before their 20th. Kid is close alright, if Hyman could finish those assists would be way up.

 

[Narow]

Yeah he scores his goals in a similar way, but there's a reason he's first in the league in even strength goals. It's because you can't stop him, and I don't think that'll change. Everyone knows exactly how ovechkin wants to score and look at him

Yeah thats very true, i have ZERO doubt he will adapt to it just fine aswell even if teams magically comes up with a tactic that completely shuts him out of the crease.

I bet in such scenario he would just start scoring from further out mixed with some dekes.

The reason i am being conservative with my hopes are

1. Dont want to be lets down
2. I did not see him in swiss league meaning i do not know what parts of his game we have not seen on nhl level yet.

It wouldnt surprise me at all if he outdoes this season the next. I just dont know enough to be willing to comfortably say he will considering some of the factors i brought up.

Trying to keep my fanboyism in check here hehe. Its hard tho with such a promising debut season.

Ill be sure to return to this page after next season to see if i was foolish or not ^^

 

[ITM]

Matthews will...

Be named Captain before the start of next season.

By the end of it score 85-90 points. That's a 15-20 increase which is a reasonable projection that seems him modestly better a ppg avg. I think his assist totals increase and that he comes in around the 45 goal mark.

But I wouldn't be surprised if he goes 50-50 next year either.

Not now I wouldn't.

 

[Garthinater]

Imo Matthews is the least likely to have a sophomore slump. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets 40-40 next year but anything over 35-30 and I'll be a happy camper.
If anyone has a down year I feel like it will be Mitch but even then I doubt it happens. All three are just so good that they might all do better next year. Crazy

 

[Narow]

Matthews will...

Be named Captain before the start of next season.

By the end of it score 85-90 points. That's a 15-20 increase which is a reasonable projection that seems him modestly better a ppg avg. I think his assist totals increase and that he comes in around the 45 goal mark.

But I wouldn't be surprised if he goes 50-50 next year either.

Not now I wouldn't.

If he does that his careers first 2 season are historical..especially if he scores 40 goals back 2 back.

I think only OVI has done that in "recent" times.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the leafs had almost least injuries as a team in the whole league this season!

Imagine kadri going down for some game, would put alot of pressure on matthews.

Aloot went right this season. Many career years (thanks to adition of matthews and company removing pressure from the vets).

If leafs are unlucky with injuries next year we may not see an increase in production despite matthews playing even better.

Or am i lost on this?

Just some food for thought.

85-90 points would be straight up insane. And he wasent too far of this season with 69 points so i dont think at all its impossible. Especially considered hymans high danger misses

 

[Kelly]

I'd be very surprised to see him killing penalties.

Yeah I agree, I think we'll see Marner on the PK before him. But if we have guys like Hyman, Komarov, Brown and then hopefully a couple fourth liners who can kill I really don't see the need for him on the PK.

I'm gonna say, 38 goals, 39 assists. 77 Points.

 

[Apotheosis]

Yeah I agree, I think we'll see Marner on the PK before him. But if we have guys like Hyman, Komarov, Brown and then hopefully a couple fourth liners who can kill I really don't see the need for him on the PK.

I'm gonna say, 38 goals, 39 assists. 77 Points.

I think that's way too conservative.

1. He scored more this year playing with Hyman (goals wise) and if we assume he will have a competent winger instead of him...

2. That's over 40 goals and at least an extra 10 assists over this year which is a minimum of 80 points. His OiSH percentage was horrible because of Hyman and he still generated chances like crazy. He has legitimate 100 point potential.

 

[ITM]

If he does that his careers first 2 season are historical..especially if he scores 40 goals back 2 back.

I think only OVI has done that in "recent" times.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the leafs had almost least injuries as a team in the whole league this season!

Imagine kadri going down for some game, would put alot of pressure on matthews.

Aloot went right this season. Many career years (thanks to adition of matthews and company removing pressure from the vets).

If leafs are unlucky with injuries next year we may not see an increase in production despite matthews playing even better.

Or am i lost on this?

Just some food for thought.

85-90 points would be straight up insane. And he wasent too far of this season with 69 points so i dont think at all its impossible. Especially considered hymans high danger misses

Keep in mind, "Many career years" as in "Many career [Leafs rookie record setting] years."

Matthews play has to be projected by the company he keeps in setting his Maple Leafs and U.S.born records, but he's in the midst of elite company as well.

And the company he keeps (for the most part) remained elite and only went up.

 

[Morbo]

Personally i believe he will stay more or less on same ...but less goals. Mainly because he scores most of his goals in similar fashion which means its easier to counter.

Second is teams will put alot more resources on him.

Third babcock will hand him tougher asignments due to how well he has performed and shown he can handle it.

After all he was mostly line matched with 4th lines at home (yet he did better on the road) and had the highest ozone starts on the team. I expect this to change next season.

Fourth factor is the biggest unseen factor, injuries. He played full 82 games..he may not next season.

So in my opinion, if i am correct and those do happend and he still produces about the same it still means much improvements

I'll grant you health. The Leafs were very fortunate with the overall health of the big 3.

however...not to be psycho_dad here, but the rest of that is pretty questionable. are you saying teams haven't known exactly where Matthews goes on the ice? they haven't been trying to check and stop him this season?

as for tougher assignments, this kid has succeeded at every single situation he's been put in so far. swiss league, WHC, and now an absolutely elite rookie season at 19. I'm not betting this guy is going to struggle with more minutes. He's a machine.

aren't you expecting 40 from Laine next year? I am.

 

[Narow]

Keep in mind, "Many career years" as in "Many career [Leafs rookie record setting] years."

Matthews play has to be projected by the company he keeps in setting his Maple Leafs and U.S.born records, but he's in the midst of elite company as well.

And the company he keeps (for the most part) remained elite and only went up.

That is a very good point heck they could outdo this season easily next year to.

Major thing is injuries they have had so few. So that could make it look as no improvenent was made (standings etc) despite having played alot bettee.

In thrilled for next season see how all these rookies look then.

 

[Willy Styles]

wait you guys actually think Matthews will regress next year????

What the hell, i thought I was on the Leafs board.

40+40, maybe even 35+45

He will definately crack 75 points and 35 goals no question if hes healthy. He's been incredibly unlucky this year, is probably gonna see more minutes, not play with Hyman, more PP time, better defenders, more physically mature, more emotionally/mentally mature, ready for the season, with a C on his shoulder and hes expected to regress????

yall crazy

 

[WTFMAN99]

Next year Rocket Richard trophy

Conn Smythe this year

JK.

 

[Silver91]

Personally i believe he will stay more or less on same ...but less goals. Mainly because he scores most of his goals in similar fashion which means its easier to counter.

Second is teams will put alot more resources on him.

Third babcock will hand him tougher asignments due to how well he has performed and shown he can handle it.

After all he was mostly line matched with 4th lines at home (yet he did better on the road) and had the highest ozone starts on the team. I expect this to change next season.

Fourth factor is the biggest unseen factor, injuries. He played full 82 games..he may not next season.

So in my opinion, if i am correct and those do happend and he still produces about the same it still means much improvements

The thing is, sure, he scores goals in the same way a lot of the time, but they are difficult to defend. He releases the puck so quick, in traffic, that even when you have 2 or 3 guys on him he can still get it away. Plus, if teams start double teaming him, he will start picking up a lot more assists as he'll be able to find the open man.

As for matchups, he had tough matchups all year, and Babcock stopped sheltering him around Christmas. He won't become worse when playing against shut-down players.

I think it's been so long since Toronto has had a truly dominant player that we, as fans, tend to err on the side of caution and conservatism when it comes to the kids, and Matthews especially. Matthews is a generational, elite talent. His play this year was nothing short of spectacular, bordering on unlucky when it came to scoring points, and barring injury will put up an even bigger year next year. Development is not always linear, but even with regression in his own play, Matthews should still put up a massive year next year, and I think it's an injustice to expect a regression from a kid who just had the year he had!

/rant lol

I think that's way too conservative.

1. He scored more this year playing with Hyman (goals wise) and if we assume he will have a competent winger instead of him...

2. That's over 40 goals and at least an extra 10 assists over this year which is a minimum of 80 points. His OiSH percentage was horrible because of Hyman and he still generated chances like crazy. He has legitimate 100 point potential.

I agree, but I also think it's no guarantee that he and Hyman are split up. If Bozak stays, I think we see Hyman staying with Matthews. If Bozak is moved, I can see Hyman riding shot-gun with Nylander next year, as it'll be almost like a rookie year playing C for 82 games.

 

[Narow]

wait you guys actually think Matthews will regress next year????

What the hell, i thought I was on the Leafs board.

40+40, maybe even 35+45

He will definately crack 75 points and 35 goals no question if hes healthy. He's been incredibly unlucky this year, is probably gonna see more minutes, not play with Hyman, more PP time, better defenders, more physically mature, more emotionally/mentally mature, ready for the season, with a C on his shoulder and hes expected to regress????

yall crazy

Teama will focus on him alot more, goalies will study his play over the summer...teams will have whole gameplans for him alone.

Add to this that babs may very well give him tougher asignments. And it is not unthinkable...

I think it is likelyer he regressea in number of goals that points tho (not saying it will happend.

For example here are some superstar rookies who score similar or more .

Crosby rookie 39 (missed 1 game)102p
Crosby 2nd 36 (missed 3 games) 120p

Ovi rookie 52 (missed 1 game) 106p
Ovi 2nd 46 (full season) 92p

Ofcourse it can go the otherway aswell

Malkin rookie 33 (missed 4 games) 85p
Malkin 2nd 47 (full season) 106p

Its unpredictable man.

Some never exceed their rookie year some far exceeds it.

There are cases both both.

For Matthews i think his goals may go down a bit but assists go way up

 

[Narow]

The thing is, sure, he scores goals in the same way a lot of the time, but they are difficult to defend. He releases the puck so quick, in traffic, that even when you have 2 or 3 guys on him he can still get it away. Plus, if teams start double teaming him, he will start picking up a lot more assists as he'll be able to find the open man.

As for matchups, he had tough matchups all year, and Babcock stopped sheltering him around Christmas. He won't become worse when playing against shut-down players.

I think it's been so long since Toronto has had a truly dominant player that we, as fans, tend to err on the side of caution and conservatism when it comes to the kids, and Matthews especially. Matthews is a generational, elite talent. His play this year was nothing short of spectacular, bordering on unlucky when it came to scoring points, and barring injury will put up an even bigger year next year. Development is not always linear, but even with regression in his own play, Matthews should still put up a massive year next year, and I think it's an injustice to expect a regression from a kid who just had the year he had!

/rant lol



I agree, but I also think it's no guarantee that he and Hyman are split up. If Bozak stays, I think we see Hyman staying with Matthews. If Bozak is moved, I can see Hyman riding shot-gun with Nylander next year, as it'll be almost like a rookie year playing C for 82 games.

This is basically what i think will happend a bit less goals but much more assists.


As for sheltering i know that, but he did top out at highest zone percentage on the team...actually among all rookies aswell. This will change as we have seen he can handle toughet situations.(and zone starts perfectly understandable when dealing with a rookie. Even more so a rookie full time C...centering rookies)

But babcock matches him against mostly 4th lines. As seen in latest Chicago game for example. This is not a bad thing its just that next year im certain team will go full shutdown on this guy with all they got.

Which is also weirs because his record on the road is actually better than at home with the favourable matchups. Haha. So in this regard im not worries at all.

And honestly a b2b 40 goal season would not be out of the question either. I just think its likelier he wont reach that. But then again he did it this year despite two long droughts..but scoring 10% of your goals in the first game helps even that out aswell.

I have zero worries about this guys skill or play, he will definatly not regress as someone wrote. If his production drops its due to factors outside his controll.

(Teams gameplans, injuries, goalies studying him, linemates etc etc)

Just want to get that out there

 

[TimeZone]

Four goals in his playoff debut. Book it.

 

[TimeZone]

This is basically what i think will happend a bit less goals but much more assists.


As for sheltering i know that, but he did top out at highest zone percentage on the team...actually among all rookies aswell. This will change as we have seen he can handle toughet situations.(and zone starts perfectly understandable when dealing with a rookie. Even more so a rookie full time C...centering rookies)

But babcock matches him against mostly 4th lines. As seen in latest Chicago game for example. This is not a bad thing its just that next year im certain team will go full shutdown on this guy with all they got.

Which is also weirs because his record on the road is actually better than at home with the favourable matchups. Haha. So in this regard im not worries at all.

And honestly a b2b 40 goal season would not be out of the question either. I just think its likelier he wont reach that. But then again he did it this year despite two long droughts..but scoring 10% of your goals in the first game helps even that out aswell.

I have zero worries about this guys skill or play, he will definatly not regress as someone wrote. If his production drops its due to factors outside his controll.

(Teams gameplans, injuries, goalies studying him, linemates etc etc)

Just want to get that out there

Why? Nothing to me suggests we should expect his totals to regress next Season.

 

[Muggs]

I'd be ecstatic if he got 85 points next year. I think he'll get minimum 80....

 

[Narow]

Why? Nothing to me suggests we should expect his totals to regress next Season.

Last part of my comment mention some reasons..it will depend on linemates too..(and its just me guessing really)

I dont neccesarly think his totals will go down but a bit less goals but more assists.

Its basically just a gut feeling not based on any real facts tho.

So we will see ^^

 

[TheLeastOfTheBunch]

Differences in offensive zone start%s doesn't really mean much over the course of a whole season, plus Babcock will keep playing his best offensive weapons in favorable situations. Just as he did with Datsyuk and Zetterberg in his last 3 years with the Wings.

In comparison with Laine, it's more likely Auston will increase the difference in production between the two next season, IMO.

 

[Willy Styles]

I just think Matthews style of play is sustainable, he was unlucky this year. Teams have been focusing on Matthews all year, but he Leafs have three top lines so it makes it incredibly hard to play matchups with the Leafs.

IMO, due to his style we still see incredible consistency and production. Don't think he has another season under 70 points, he scores in the gritty areas (not of the rush).

He could easily have 80 points right now had it not been for Hyman

 

[Muggs]

He could easily have 80 points right now had it not been for Hyman

This guy is a goal scoring machine and where he scores from is even more impressive. The unknown factor is the assist numbers, which is why I'm not expecting a 30 + point increase next year. I think 80-85 points would be a great step forward. I'd take 80 now....