ATD Chat Thread XV

[seventieslord]

Agreed. Trivia time. Before Lemieux, who was the Pens career scoring leader?

who did he take the career points lead from? I'm going to guess Jean Pronovost. Syl Apps and Rick Kehoe would have been close too.

 

[Say Hey Kid]

who did he take the career points lead from? I'm going to guess Jean Pronovost. Syl Apps and Rick Kehoe would have been close too.

You may be right. My source said if you only count Pens points it's Kehoe, but I'm lazy, on my phone, and am not in the mood to challenge your knowledge, especially on something so trivial.

 

[seventieslord]

You may be right. My source said if you only count Pens points it's Kehoe, but I'm lazy, on my phone, and am not in the mood to challenge your knowledge, especially on something so trivial.

It was just a guess. I checked hockey-reference and it was actually Kehoe, followed by Pronovost and Apps.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Not enough praise for what Marc Andre Fleury is doing in Vegas. He's having one of the all time greatest playoff runs for a netminder. For an expansion team, one win from the finals. I know some people are overly negative about the whole Vegas winning right out of the gate, but either way, what they're doing is extremely impressive. They're bested each round on paper and it hasn't mattered.

IF, Vegas wins the cup and Fleury plays well the rest of the way, he has to be a unanimous Conn Smythe choice right?

That would lock him into the HoF IMO, considering he's almost surely going to hit 500 wins (only Roy and Brodeur have done this) and would then have 4 Cups, 3 of which he played a big part in. Finally had his Vezina quality regular season as well.

 

[ImporterExporter]

So cool to see Vegas just running people over. What a damn story.....

Conn Smythe through 3 rounds:

MAF





Everyone else

 

[BraveCanadian]

So cool to see Vegas just running people over. What a damn story.....

Quite embarrassing for the state of the league, actually.

Conn Smythe through 3 rounds:

MAF

Everyone else

He's posting ridiculous numbers, that is for sure.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Eh, put me in the camp that believes lightning in a bottle exists within pro sports. Vegas doing what they're doing is awesome, IMO. Now, if it happens again next year, I'd be legitimately concerned about the depth of the league. But I think what Vegas is doing should not be impossible, especially given they are icing a pretty solid roster for an expansion team. Sure, they're overmatched on paper, but a lot like Tommy Gorman did with the Blackhawks and Maroons in the 30's, Gallant and company have a revved up fan base, and a collection of legit NHLer's playing a style of hockey that is hard to compete against. And they're playing their minds out each and every shift.

And, once again, we're seeing what a dominant goalie can do for a team. MAF isn't the first goalie to carry a lesser team to the promised land in the NHL....

 

[MadArcand]

WSH in 7

 

[BenchBrawl]

WSH in 5

 

[Hobnobs]

Gourd pulled a Tikkanen

 

[ImporterExporter]

Predicted Washington after round 1.....no reason to change my mind. They're on a mission this year. Most people keep thinking the wheels are going to come off Vegas. It all depends on MAF. If he continues to be Pat Roy circa 86/93 I don't see how Vegas loses.

Conn Smythe should be right now:

MAF


Holtby
Ovechkin/Kuz

 

[VanIslander]

There is a god!

vs.

Nate Schmidt for Conn Smythe!



He set up the franchise's first ever goal, he scored and hit the Caps multiple times and played 24+ minutes a night in his return to Washington (typical heavy load for him in this, his breakout season - last year he got NO pp or pk time in Washington and was the team's 5th dman, now in Vegas he's the clear #1), he's led all Knights blueliners since the beginning of the season. After the first month I argued he should be the team's Hart candidate (before Karlsson went beast mode). The team won just as well without MAF as with him. It would be a stat pick to pick the goalie when coaching and team defense and offensive support helped whatever goalie was in net all season long. I'm tempted to start my third thread about him on the Knights board to pimp him more!

 

[ImporterExporter]

Van I respect your opinion but having watched a lot of Vegas MAF is soooooooo far out in front of the Smythe race he probably still wins with a loss as long as he doesn't shit the bed, although like Sid in 2016 I think Ovechkin will get it if the Caps win, based on name recognition/career achievement etc.

He's facing the most shots per game against throughout the postseason. 34 shots a game. That is no small amount. And he's putting up one of the all time greatest postseason runs in the crease in modern history. You can yell stats all you want but he passes the eye test as well. MAF has carried Vegas on his back from the time he got back from injury and went into overdrive the past month+. Just because the won a hanful of games when he was out injured does not take away any of the impact he's had on the team's success.

Consider MAF is posting better numbers, for a far weaker team, then Tim Thomas did for Boston in 2011.

I'd wager MAF's run this postseason would rank top 5 or so in just about every postseason goalie study that @Hockey Outsider @quoipourquoi have done over the years. I'd be absolutely shocked if it were outside the top 10 in adjusted postseason save% or support neutral wins, among other studies. Of course we have one series left and a lot can change but right now the Smythe race isn't remotely close. It's a landslide for the Flower.

 

[quoipourquoi]

Van I respect your opinion but having watched a lot of Vegas MAF is soooooooo far out in front of the Smythe race he probably still wins with a loss as long as he doesn't **** the bed, although like Sid in 2016 I think Ovechkin will get it if the Caps win, based on name recognition/career achievement etc.

He's facing the most shots per game against throughout the postseason. 34 shots a game. That is no small amount. And he's putting up one of the all time greatest postseason runs in the crease in modern history. You can yell stats all you want but he passes the eye test as well. MAF has carried Vegas on his back from the time he got back from injury and went into overdrive the past month+. Just because the won a hanful of games when he was out injured does not take away any of the impact he's had on the team's success.

Consider MAF is posting better numbers, for a far weaker team, then Tim Thomas did for Boston in 2011.

I'd wager MAF's run this postseason would rank top 5 or so in just about every postseason goalie study that @Hockey Outsider @quoipourquoi have done over the years. I'd be absolutely shocked if it were outside the top 10 in adjusted postseason save% or support neutral wins, among other studies. Of course we have one series left and a lot can change but right now the Smythe race isn't remotely close. It's a landslide for the Flower.

Top Round 1-3 Performances, 1968-2018
Error Rate vs. Expectation (EvE)

1. Jean-Sebastien Giguere, 2003 (39.6% on 496 shots)
2. John Davidson, 1979 (46.0% on 374 shots)
3. Rogie Vachon, 1969 (46.8% on 257 shots)
4. Richard Brodeur, 1982 (54.0% on 463 shots)
5. Patrick Roy, 1993 (54.3% on 492 shots)
6. Ilya Bryzgalov, 2006 (54.5% on 285 shots)
7. Tuukka Rask, 2013 (55.4% on 527 shots)
8. John Vanbiesbrouck, 1996 (55.6% on 616 shots)
9. Marc-Andre Fleury, 2018 (55.9% on 505 shots)
10. Arturs Irbe, 2002 (56.5% on 319 shots)


So far, the numbers are definitely there for him, but a lot of the above goaltenders didn’t stick the landing in Round 4.

Vachon won the Cup in 1969, as it was a three-round playoff. Roy won the Cup in 1993. The other 7 all went on to lose in Round 4 (or in Bryzgalov’s case, were out in Round 3).

If Fleury’s numbers hold, he’s in lofty statistical company:


Top Round 1-4 Performances, 1968-2017
Error Rate vs. Expectation (EvE)

1. Patrick Roy, 1993 (55.7% on 647 shots)
2. John Vanbiesbrouck, 1996 (58.8% on 735 shots)
3. John Davidson, 1979 (59.2% on 535 shots)
4. Jean-Sebastien Giguere, 2003 (59.3% on 697 shots)
5. Tuukka Rask, 2013 (59.4% on 761 shots)
6. Richard Brodeur, 1982 (60.4% on 594 shots)
7. Jonathan Quick, 2012 (60.4% on 538 shots)
8. Dominik Hasek, 1999 (60.7% on 587 shots)
9. Patrick Roy, 1986 (61.3% on 504 shots)
10. Patrick Roy, 2001 (62.6% on 622 shots)

 

[ImporterExporter]

Here's a perfect example of what I'm talking about. You have the postseason leader in goals get 2 GLORIOUS chances in high danger areas and MAF makes incredible saves on both, bang-bang. Look at the score. 3-2 Vegas midway through the 3rd period. Series tied. You want evidence of incredibly important saves? There's 2 right there.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Top Round 1-3 Performances, 1968-2018
Error Rate vs. Expectation (EvE)

1. Jean-Sebastien Giguere, 2003 (39.6% on 496 shots)
2. John Davidson, 1979 (46.0% on 374 shots)
3. Rogie Vachon, 1969 (46.8% on 257 shots)
4. Richard Brodeur, 1982 (54.0% on 463 shots)
5. Patrick Roy, 1993 (54.3% on 492 shots)
6. Ilya Bryzgalov, 2006 (54.5% on 285 shots)
7. Tuukka Rask, 2013 (55.4% on 527 shots)
8. John Vanbiesbrouck, 1996 (55.6% on 616 shots)
9. Marc-Andre Fleury, 2018 (55.9% on 505 shots)
10. Arturs Irbe, 2002 (56.5% on 319 shots)


So far, the numbers are definitely there for him, but a lot of the above goaltenders didn’t stick the landing in Round 4.

Vachon won the Cup in 1969, as it was a three-round playoff. Roy won the Cup in 1993. The other 7 all went on to lose in Round 4 (or in Bryzgalov’s case, were out in Round 3).

If Fleury’s numbers hold, he’s in lofty statistical company:


Top Round 1-4 Performances, 1968-2017
Error Rate vs. Expectation (EvE)

1. Patrick Roy, 1993 (55.7% on 647 shots)
2. John Vanbiesbrouck, 1996 (58.8% on 735 shots)
3. John Davidson, 1979 (59.2% on 535 shots)
4. Jean-Sebastien Giguere, 2003 (59.3% on 697 shots)
5. Tuukka Rask, 2013 (59.4% on 761 shots)
6. Richard Brodeur, 1982 (60.4% on 594 shots)
7. Jonathan Quick, 2012 (60.4% on 538 shots)
8. Dominik Hasek, 1999 (60.7% on 587 shots)
9. Patrick Roy, 1986 (61.3% on 504 shots)
10. Patrick Roy, 2001 (62.6% on 622 shots)

Pretty close to what I expected. Thanks for sharing Q!

Love 29. There are few better people in sports than him. Really happy to see him at the top of his game after some ups and downs in Pitt. Handled losing his reign on the starting spot in Pitt with nothing but class. What a story. Last year in Pitt fills in for Murray and gets the Pens through the 1st 2 rounds (including game 7 shutout IN Washington), wins the Cup and is now 4 wins away from the most unlikely story in NHL history.....

 

[seventieslord]

Vegas in 6

 

[Flyers Faithful]

How do you join this league, seems like a lot of fun

 

[tony d]

Washington in 6. Still Vegas has been quite the story both this spring and indeed the whole season.

 

[BenchBrawl]

How do you join this league, seems like a lot of fun

It's unclear whether there will be one next year, but check this section around december or january.

 

[Johnny Engine]

One thing I like to do as a fun little challenge sometimes is to build real NHL teams out of their ATD equivalents (taking into account the roles they play and how good they are relative to the rest of the league). It really makes one think about different ways a team could be constructed, an it's actually more challenging than you'd even think.

I tried the final lineup for the Leafs. Anyone want to try another team? (I'd say Vegas would be the biggest challenge, as it's really hard to say exactly how good any of those guys are!)

LEAFS:
Wayne Cashman - Syl Apps - Alexander Maltsev
George Hay - Doug Gilmour - Patrick Kane
John Leclair - Bernie Federko - Bob Nevin
Mats Naslund - Edgar Laprade - Alexander Mogilny
Esa Tikkanen, Brian Rolston, Terry O’Rielly, Gaye Stewart

Bryan Leetch - Brad McCrimmon
Scott Niedermayer - Vladimir Lutchenko
Glen Harmon - Ken Daneyko
Paul Reinhart

Ken Dryden
Tim Thomas

PP:
Leclair
Federko - Gilmour - Kane
Leetch

Hay
Apps - Naslund - Maltsev
Niedermayer

PK:
Cashman - Mogilny
McCrimmon - Lutchenko

Laprade - Nevin
Leetch - Daneyko

 

[ResilientBeast]

Wow they did it

I never thought this Caps team would do it

 

[jarek]

Wow they did it I never thought this Caps team would do it

Honestly once they made the finals it was a foregone conclusion against Vegas IMO. That team's luck had to run out at some point.

 

[seventieslord]

Wow, Kuzy got robbed. I don't even like the guy, but he had a simply outstanding playoff.

 

[MadArcand]

Guess NHL just likes to award the Conn Smythe to its big stars (Crosby 2 years back was the same thing).

So did I actually win the prediction game this time?