Around the NHL 2013-2014 Part II: The Playoff Edition

[InjuredChoker]

A rat could defiantly take a scorpion. But I think these playoffs have been pretty exciting. The Montreal series has been a good watch for me and I was surprised that Minny pulled out their last win

hawks seem to have a habit of losing game 3 at home.

habs-bruins are always awesome.

 

[Chance on Chance]

People have read your post and arent really disagreeing that a good corsit is good. We're saying he needs to score. What if he goes 6 goals in 82 playoff games with his great corsi #'s? Who are the top 5 in Playoff corsi so far?

 

[InjuredChoker]

People have read your post and arent really disagreeing that a good corsit is good. We're saying he needs to score. What if he goes 6 goals in 82 playoff games with his great corsi #'s? Who are the top 5 in Playoff corsi so far?

relative to team

leddy
seguin
bickell
nash
crosby
reilly smith (if seguin doesn't count)

 

[Frk It]

This whole Corsi stuff matches the eye test.

Nash looks good, he's just not closing the deal and scoring.

The work comparisons were decent. Using sales as an example, it's like Nash is creating himself a lot of leads, but he can't close the deal. And closing deals is what matters at the end of the day.

 

[Bench]

You're watching the spreadsheets too closely if you can't see the difference between playoff hockey and regular season hockey.

I mean, even my friends who are the most casual hockey fans will say, "I only really watch the playoffs because the intensity is so much higher." And they are right. Everybody is giving 100% and laying the body on the line. Space is harder to get. Teams have had a full season to mesh and get their gameplan in order. The playoffs is what defines a good hockey player from a great hockey player. You have to perform against the best teams leaving nothing on the line.

Guys like Zetterberg do that. Every. Single. Year. Guys like Nash, well, they try hard. Good for him. He's got excellent effort numbers. Maybe he'll get a gold star from the coach.

 

[PullHard]

Meh, tired of being trolled and flamed so I'll just drop it.

If you ever feel like having an open minded, or at least moderately respectful discussion Jman, feel free to PM me or something. Always up for a debate as long as it is rational.

 

[JmanWingsFan]

have similar data for NHL? hockey forum and discussion after all.

seems to me that NHL teams that spend more money, tend to win a lot more.

this season, only 2 of the top 10 in spending missed the playoffs. and only 2 of the bottom 10 made it.

That was a general refutation of a sweeping statement he made. It is a bit different in hockey due to its salary cap. But the point I'm making here is that expecting someone to perform at 100% whenever the club needs him otherwise he's an overpaid bum is unfair and baseless stupidity, especially when said player not even performing that bad. Barry Bonds was quite useless in the playoffs, but no one called him an overpaid bum. Peyton Manning holds records in the NFL and only has one ring. Even Miguel Cabrera has 0-4 nights. Why aren't they useless bums? Because we don't judge them over small samples of bad performance. We judge them because over a large span of samples they do really amazing things.

But, we are doing the exact opposite here and calling Rick Nash, normally an elite forward, an overpaid bum because of some small sample sizes.

You're watching the spreadsheets too closely if you can't see the difference between playoff hockey and regular season hockey.

You keep trying to separate goal scoring from possession numbers as if one is more important than the other. Yet the two [possession and goal scoring]are highly correlated with each other and winning. It's not just the regular season, but the post season as well. There may be documented trends, but a hockey game is still a hockey game no matter the stakes. Therefore, you don't really know what you are saying when you say "Corsi is nice, but goal scoring is nicer." The truth of the matter is that possession leads to goal scoring, and goal scoring leads to winning. They aren't separate, they are all linked.

Doing the right things all the time in sports is no guarantee you will get the desired outcome. But doing it all the time will likely lead to the desired outcome more often than not.

So again, what rationale is there to criticize someone who is doing all the things right but is not getting the results? There is none. If he was actually playing bad then he deserves all the criticism he gets. But that isn't Rick Nash.

 

[Chance on Chance]

relative to team

leddy
seguin
bickell
nash
crosby
reilly smith (if seguin doesn't count)

What site do you use? I've been looking at them more and have only really used extra skater

 

[InjuredChoker]

What site do you use? I've been looking at them more and have only really used extra skater

that's the one.

 

[JmanWingsFan]

This whole Corsi stuff matches the eye test.

Nash looks good, he's just not closing the deal and scoring.

The work comparisons were decent. Using sales as an example, it's like Nash is creating himself a lot of leads, but he can't close the deal. And closing deals is what matters at the end of the day.

The problem here is that there are two parties in a sale. The salesman can do all he can to sell the product. If the buyer for some reason decides against it, then how is that the seller's fault.

In the same vein, a forward can do all the right things to score a goal, but he has no control over a goaltender who is trying to stop every shot on net. Add in heightened goaltender performances that we see in the playoffs along with the small sample sizes, and how is Rick Nash an overpaid bum when he is the best forward on the Rangers in the playoffs?

 

[Bench]

and how is Rick Nash an overpaid bum when he is the best forward on the Rangers in the playoffs?

Because he hasn't been their best forward. How simple is that? Yes, I know you have an answer to this with advanced stats, but how about some simple ones. There are 6 other players are outproducing him on the team, including a defender.

Brad Richards has been the best forward for them, because he's generating chances and scoring. A novel idea.

 

[InjuredChoker]

That was a general refutation of a sweeping statement he made. It is a bit different in hockey due to its salary cap. But the point I'm making here is that expecting someone to perform at 100% whenever the club needs him otherwise he's an overpaid bum is unfair and baseless stupidity, especially when said player not even performing that bad. Barry Bonds was quite useless in the playoffs, but no one called him an overpaid bum. Peyton Manning holds records in the NFL and only has one ring. Even Miguel Cabrera has 0-4 nights. Why aren't they useless bums? Because we don't judge them over small samples of bad performance. We judge them because over a large span of samples they do really amazing things.

But, we are doing the exact opposite here and calling Rick Nash, normally an elite forward, an overpaid bum because of some small sample sizes.

gotta go so can't write a full novel. i agree with a lot of stuff you have said.

but there are some cases, like this imo, in which good corsi doesn't equal good performance. i don't think he's overpaid bum. he's had some good games these playoffs and some bad ones. over larger sample sizes, he should get more, even way more goals even if he does the exact same thing. he has been robbed few times.

he's doing a lot of things right which usually leads to good corsi and thus goals. but there have been definitely games where he hasn't played well and has done more of the stuff that leads to good corsi, rather than goals. taking weak perimeter shot instead of driving to the net. latter doesn't result in shot attempt but is more dangerous, harder for the other teams D, and it keeps them guessing and gives more options next time around etc. or pass to stepan who shoots it from weak angle instead of going to the net and paying the price. or firing shot and missing the net on a 3on1 or giving the puck away like last night. gets better corsi but less goals.

longer-term both sh% and corsi don't stay the same way. regular season, teams have less focus, usually on a single opponent. not so in playoffs. so nash gets more space there. there has been bad luck which will normalize. coach will fix the line combos, demote or promote players, use them differently etc. so he doesn't have 3 players who drive the possession on the same line, but can't score at all. shots go in more, corsi goes down a bit. all things that play a part normalizing the relationship with corsi and sh% long-term.

i think this slump/bad streak is overstated bc he shies away from contact, makes lazy plays and stays so much on the perimeter, combined with his lack of scoring and he's a 6'4 guy who can skate and is strong.

these things can't really be measured well yet (what leads to those corsi numbers, shot quality) as sh% has ton of randomness into it

 

[InjuredChoker]

Add in heightened goaltender performances that we see in the playoffs along with the small sample sizes?

we have seen that in larger sample sizes too, i think. goalscoring goes down in playoffs.

and it's not just goalie performance, teams tighten up, focus on other teams strengths more, refs swallow their whistles, less pp's etc.

 

[Some Random Guy]

The problem here is that there are two parties in a sale. The salesman can do all he can to sell the product. If the buyer for some reason decides against it, then how is that the seller's fault.

Salesmen get paid to sell. They don't get paid for effort. They get paid for results. Simple as that.

 

[Bench]

Salesmen get paid to sell. They don't get paid for effort. They get paid for results. Simple as that.

It is that simple. Or how about we stop trying to shoehorn in some kind of analogy and just use the one where he's a hockey player. I'm full of wild ideas. Stay tuned for more such thoughts.

 

[PullHard]

It is that simple. Or how about we stop trying to shoehorn in some kind of analogy and just use the one where he's a hockey player. I'm full of wild ideas. Stay tuned for more such thoughts.

You goofy inventive types!!! Where does this nonsense come from?

 

[Frk It]

@DarrenDreger
Not surprisingly, Tom Renney's name has surfaced among NHL head coaching candidates. He's in the mix for at least 2 of the vacant posts.

 

[SoupNazi]

@DarrenDreger
Not surprisingly, Tom Renney's name has surfaced among NHL head coaching candidates. He's in the mix for at least 2 of the vacant posts.

I'm not surprised. I wonder for which jobs he's in the mix?

 

[InjuredChoker]

Jen ‏@NHLhistorygirl 4 t
At the 1987 draft, #RedWings scouts actually were split over taking Joe Sakic or Yves Racine with their first pick.

fire holland.

 

[Bench]

A cool infographic making the rounds.

 

[Bench]

Nice to see the Rangers fighting back and making a series of it again. I was worried after that highlight goal from Malkin they'd fold.

Oh, and Nash with a secondary assist on the empty net goal. I'm sure that settles the debate.

 

[14ari13]

Nice to see the Rangers fighting back and making a series of it again. I was worried after that highlight goal from Malkin they'd fold.

Oh, and Nash with a secondary assist on the empty net goal. I'm sure that settles the debate.

I am glad Rangers won. I am surprised Hawks lost, but Wild won all their home games, so ...

 

[ArGarBarGar]

I am glad Rangers won. I am surprised Hawks lost, but Wild won all their home games, so ...

Every game the Wild wins in the playoffs is a dagger to my side.

**** you.

 

[Kronwalled55]

We would've had our top defenseman for years to come if it wasn't for that meddling Parise.

 

[JmanWingsFan]

Nice to see the Rangers fighting back and making a series of it again. I was worried after that highlight goal from Malkin they'd fold.

Oh, and Nash with a secondary assist on the empty net goal. I'm sure that settles the debate.

I don't think you understand how random of an event goals are, to be honest.

In other news, Douglas Murray is a laughably terrible Dman.