Is this current crop up of Winnipeg Jets truly playing to their strengths? Is the coach coaching to the teams position of strength or is the team trying to play into the coach's comfort zone? Are the Jets designed to play effectively to Bones' system? Are they round pegs being forced into square holes? I remember playing a chess game against an experienced player but he was no grandmaster. I played a defensive system and he tore me apart. Eventually I asked how he did this. He stated average chess players could beat better players simply by playing aggressively all the time; always be attacking. Force your opponent into unforced errors by shaking him up with that aggressive play. It works.
The Jets are not playing into their strengths; Ehlers, Conner, Namestikov, Perfetti, Toffoli and to a certain degree Iafallo are not neutral zone suffocating, defense first players. And this represents the bulk of our top forward group. These players struggle with physical play especially in board battles and with aggressive backchecking. They are skilled in their strengths which is to fly offensively, drive play and create chances. However, with Bones' system, he requires players to focus on defense first which also requires hard backchecking and constant physical aggression. Scheifele, Monahan, Lowry, Appleton, Neidereiter, and Barron play that way. Or try to. Some better than others, but the other aforementioned six are not designed to play that way. I don't think they can do that night in and night out. They get out-muscled and out-chanced when forced to play outside of their skillset. When you play a team like the Islanders who are not particularly skilled in comparison to the Jets, all the coach needs to do is tell his physical players to constantly attack the less physical players of the Jets; force them to make unforced errors with panicked play. Especially in the neutral zone. You also see opponents forcing the Jets into high percentage passing in the offensive zone especially on the power play with an aggressive defensive coverage. This creates higher chances of possession turnovers in the offensive zone which creates momentum shifts. Teams are less apt to be this aggressive with teams like the Avalanche, the Oilers, the Panthers, Hurricanes...teams with superiour offensive zone metrics. Those teams have physical and skilled players (a lethal combination the Jets can only DREAM to get!), talented players that are successful in board battles, and they also play a more controlled system which enables these teams to play the game at a faster rate and can do this by matching the level of aggressive play of their opponent. This is also helped with having physical defensemen who can also efficiently move the puck. We have Morrisey and to a much smaller degree Pionk. Other than those defenders, we have stay-at-home defensemen like DeMelo, Dillon, Samberg, Stanley, and Schmidt who cannot be expected to carry the offensive play and to create offensive chances in the neutral zone...they play to clear the zone, usually by flipping the puck or zing the puck out with a wing and a prayer out of the defensive zone and bring the puck to the forward group as quickly as possible. In the Western Conference, this type of play just simply won't fly. Against those in the playoff positions at any rate. That's why our play these past few months against playoff teams has been below .500. Our possession metrics have also started to crater. We expect a Vezina calibre goaltender to conceal our areas of deficiency with his stellar play...that is until he plays only average as Hellebuyck has this past week or two. Too much pressure on our goaltender to bail out team errors.
So my question...how much of this is because of the lack of creativity in Bones' systems? Is he expecting the players to play to his comfort level rather than adjust to allow his players more latitude in their skillsets? Can any player in our forward group be considered a Selke award candidate? Is this a GM issue with a GM that lacks the ability to truly team build? Does our GM have a vision on how the Jets can succeed and does he know how to build the team for this type of success? How does the Western Conference measure up to this? Are the Avalanche, Oilers, Stars, Golden Knights, and to a smaller degree the Predators considered strong Stanley Cup contenders season in and season out for the past 4-5 years? Yes they are and they have the possession metrics and post season success to back it up...nevermind the talent they've expertly constructed for their teams. I know Bones has coached the Stars to the Cup but he did so after the previous head coach got himself in trouble and was fired mid-season and the team was already constructed based on that previous coach's style. Look at Montgomery now and what he's doing with the Bruins with a team that had lower expectations after a brutal off season. These successful teams in the Western Conference all play the same systems which they excel at and of which the Jets struggle mightily against. And they win Cups. Those teams that aren't as skilled but play a heavy game routinely outplay the Jets as we've seen in New Jersey and in Long Island this past weekend.
We can dress this up any way we like but the bottom line is, the Jets aren't built to be successful in a Western Conference playoff scenario. Man, I really really REALLY hope I'm wrong!!!
