Speculation: Armchair GM Thread: the madness continues
- Thread starter Lunatik
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Volica
Papa Shango
- May 15, 2012
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Well, here's my thoughts.
Johnny has been a PPG player; and as long as he doesn't go through a ridiculous cold spell or injury, should get back there. If gets back there, it'll bump Monahan's numbers up.
Ferland's been a nice little fit, and if he continues, I wouldn't be surprised to see 30-40 points from him.
Tkachuk just came off a 48 point rookie season where he played fairly limited minutes, got some okay PP time. He should improve this year, hopefully, and get into those mid to low 50's. He's as skilled of a player as Nylander, and Nylander pulled 60... so, hoping Chucky could get there isn't out of the realm of possibility.
I originally had ranges for players in that post, but changed it just to make it a bit more cut & dry. I think Bennett needs to get full 2nd unit PP time. The guy had the 5th most amount of PPG's this season; so I think giving him more time there should increase that production. Plus giving him second unit PK time would also do some really good; as I think the guy could get 1-2 SHG's a season. My TOI, if I could, would be as following:
Gaudreau (18:30) - Monahan (17:45) - Ferland (13:00) = 49:15
Tkachuk (16:30) - Backlund (17:30) - Frolik (16:30) = 50:30
Versteeg (14:30) - Bennett (16:30) - Lazar (13:30) = 44:30
X (10:00) - Stajan (12:00) - Brouwer (12:00) = 34:00
With +/- that works out to about 174-176 minutes a night from forwards, more or less what it works out to.
Like I mentioned Tkachuk and Bennett are the two guys that'll have to make the next steps for Calgary. If those two become the players that I think a lot of us think they can be... man...
Gaudreau was a point per game guy in one season. A lot of teams are starting to learn how to shut him down a bit now. I don't think we'll see another point per game year from him without getting a true #1 RW, Monahan improving, or getting someone who develops excellent chemistry with those two.
Mr Snrub
I like the way Snrub thinks!
- Oct 12, 2016
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I personally think that one of the things that makes Gaudreau most offensively dangerous is that he has enough creativity to not really be easily shut down. Opposing coaches can put more guys on him (i.e. opening up more ice for his linemates), but it's not like he plays some one-dimensional offensive game that teams can easily plan for.
I think virtually all of Gaudreau's problems last year had to do with the change in system, a bad taste in his mouth over the contract dispute, not having a steady RW, and just plain being snakebitten. He should return to form pretty quickly.
Volica
Papa Shango
- May 15, 2012
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I really disagree with that.
I don't think people 'figured' Gaudreau out, minus slashing his hands (which should be reduced this year); the guy was snakebitten in the worst of ways, and still was projecting a 70 point campaign.
Knowing the system, having a much more stable backend; not having a revolving RW (Ferland should get a least 20 games there to start the season to prove himself) will go a long way. Plus having a non-AHL caliber Monahan for 1/4 of the season will certainly help. Add in, what I think will be a top 10-12 PP again... I really think Johnny can go 78-85 points.
I don't think they learned how to shut him down, but the opposite wing is that weak and all the offence comes from his side, it's much easier to defend against. Hudler actually had some pretty decent playmaking abilities before. I think it speaks volumes for how great Gaudreau and Monahan actually are. Very few duo's can actually carry 3rd/4th liners and still be successful.
Bjornar Moxnes
Stem Rødt og Felix Unger Sörum
People actually think Brouwer and Stajan will get anywhere near that? Both are trending in the worst years for a forward (Especially physical wingers).
How I see it (Assuming both Jankowski and Kulak take the final available spots, and everyone plays 82 games):
Gaudreau (30 goals 80 points) - Monahan (33 goals 65 points) - Versteeg (20 goals 43 points)
Tkachuk (18 goals 52 points) - Backlund (22 goals 57 points) - Frolik (17 goals 42 points)
Ferland (15 goals 30 points) - Bennett (18 goals 39 points) - Lazar (9 goals 25 points)
Stajan (6 goals 18 points) - Jankowski (8 goals 24 points) - Brouwer (12 goals 26 points)
Giordano (16 goals 55 points) - Hamilton (12 goals 58 points)
Brodie (8 goals 45 points) - Hamonic (4 goals 28 points)
Kulak (2 goals 17 points) - Stone (3 goals 24 points)
How I see it (Assuming both Jankowski and Kulak take the final available spots, and everyone plays 82 games):
Gaudreau (30 goals 80 points) - Monahan (33 goals 65 points) - Versteeg (20 goals 43 points)
Tkachuk (18 goals 52 points) - Backlund (22 goals 57 points) - Frolik (17 goals 42 points)
Ferland (15 goals 30 points) - Bennett (18 goals 39 points) - Lazar (9 goals 25 points)
Stajan (6 goals 18 points) - Jankowski (8 goals 24 points) - Brouwer (12 goals 26 points)
Giordano (16 goals 55 points) - Hamilton (12 goals 58 points)
Brodie (8 goals 45 points) - Hamonic (4 goals 28 points)
Kulak (2 goals 17 points) - Stone (3 goals 24 points)
Bjornar Moxnes
Stem Rødt og Felix Unger Sörum
Is it time for him to enter the convo, and be Gaudrau and Monahan's Hudler like player?
I think it's coming to a head in Colorado, the rumours have been out there for too long. If he isn't moved soon, I think there could be a public trade request, to force managements hand, greatly reducing his value. If Backlund resigns, then it's a great two way veteran 2nd line centre + a good LD prospect, for a similar price tag. If Backlund wants to test free agency, at the deadline they get a mid-late 1st +. Duchene isn't worth more than a mid/late 1st, Kylington(2nd) and a small plus. If GM's thought he was, he'd already be gone.
Bjornar Moxnes
Stem Rødt og Felix Unger Sörum
I'd much rather have Backlund over Duchene. Backlund is an elite 2-way forward. Backlund and Kylington for MacKinnon though.... Sign me up. BTW yes I am aware that won't happen (Well unlikely), but you get my love for the deal.
The point is, 240-250 is pretty high for the NHL right now. If you start assuming a lot of those will only have 1 assist, that number is going to go up. I doubt the Flames are getting 260+ goals this year.
Johnny Hoxville
The Return of a Legend
Why would we deal Backlund for Duchene? I know Duchene is a sexy name, but Backlund is a far superior player.
Lunatik
Registered User
- Oct 12, 2012
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I agree completely. I'm just saying those point totals predicted earlier were a bit too optimistic. If every goal the Flames scored had 2 assists, that leaves them with 240-250ish goals, and not every goal will have 2 assists.
Tkachuk Norris
Registered User
- Jun 22, 2012
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Someone said this a while ago, and it got me thinking. I really like the idea of Oliver Kylington playing the wing. With his speed and skill he would be a threat and you wouldn't have to worry about him trying to dangle through a guy when he's the last man back.
Also, why are Leaf, Flyers, and Oilers fans so deplorable? Yuck
Also, why are Leaf, Flyers, and Oilers fans so deplorable? Yuck
I don't want anything to do with Duchene and I don't even think Backlund is half as good as most around here. I'm just saying it's the only thing that makes sense, in the long term. I personally woulndnt do it. The only other option is if Brouwer was somehow part of the deal. That would most likely require us to gut our stable, for a guy that isn't a huge need, IMO.
Bjornar Moxnes
Stem Rødt og Felix Unger Sörum
Kylington is a left handed shot player, adding more anti-biotics to the shot balance virus I see.
Bennett for Roslovic, Armia + Chiarot
Gaudreau-Monahan-Armia
Tkachuk-Backlund-Frolik
Versteeg-Jankowski-Brouwer
Ferland-Stajan-Lazar
2019:
Gaudreau-Monahan-Roslovic
Frolik-Backlund-Armia
Tkachuk-Jankowski-Foo
Ferland-Lazar-Brouwer
Gaudreau-Monahan-Armia
Tkachuk-Backlund-Frolik
Versteeg-Jankowski-Brouwer
Ferland-Stajan-Lazar
2019:
Gaudreau-Monahan-Roslovic
Frolik-Backlund-Armia
Tkachuk-Jankowski-Foo
Ferland-Lazar-Brouwer
Volica
Papa Shango
- May 15, 2012
- 21,442
- 11,116
Just curious why.
Bennett still has the most potential of any Flame player outside of maybe Tkachuk; really not sure why some folks are so excited to sell low on him, even when our management group have time and time again pumped this kids' tires.
Johnny Hoxville
The Return of a Legend
I used to love Duchene. But honestly he reminds me a lot of Tanguay. Came into the league with tons of skill, all the talent to be an upper elite player. But is soft, inconsistent, has a questionable attitude and work ethic, and watch he will start moving teams every 2-3 years.
Flames Fanatic
Mediocre
Kylington isn't even NHL ready for at least two more years most likely. So don't worry about handedness just yet. No way of knowing what the team will look like in 2 years in that regard.
First off, I agree with your assessment and I think it's very risky moving Bennett, at this point. The nice thing about Roslovic, besides already having a connection with Tkachuk, is you get a guy that's very versatile. He can play RW, which I consider our biggest need, or centre, at a high level. Armia is a guy I've wanted for a while, I think he's poised to have a breakout year. Good size, mobility, scoring and set up abilities. Chiarot is a throw in, regular shift, #6, that can chuck knuckles, something we're missing on the backend and I definitely don't want the top 5 doing it.
We give up the player with the highest ceiling but potentially solve the RW problems for the next 6-8 years. Worst case, we slightly downgrade centre and get a very solid, young RW, in Armia and a tough #6 defenseman.
I don't see Jankowski playing 4th line centre and I see one of Backlund or Bennett being gone in the next 2 years.
The Jets move Little to RW, to accommodate the loss of Armia and if they can't come to terms with Little, next year, have a high end, long term replacement, in Bennett.
Basically, we have to give to get. I don't feel Andersson or Kylington hold the value to return an upgrade over anything we currently have. To me, given our centre depth, combined with the return of guy with high end skill down the middle, if we need him, Valimaki is more important to the future of the club than Bennett, given Gio's age.
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Mr Snrub
I like the way Snrub thinks!
- Oct 12, 2016
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I'm fine with moving Bennett for the right price, but I don't think this is a good return for him. Armia and Roslovic are complimentary pieces at best: I think Armia's odds of becoming a legit second-line winger are about the same as Bennett's of becoming a legit first-line winger. Roslovic I'm likewise not sold on, I haven't followed him much since his draft year but if he's not actively making me pay attention like some recent draftees have, I don't think he's a good enough piece to include in a deal for a potential core piece. Chiarot is a nice throw-in, I think he's on the cusp of becoming a great #5, but it's not like we're hurting for defensemen.
Basically the way I think the deal breaks down is we give up a guy who has the potential to be one of the team's best players for guys who best case scenario end up being about as good as Frolik is now. If we were to trade Bennett I would want at least a guy who has the same sort of game-breaking potential.
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