Speculation: Armchair GM / Speculation / Rumours Thread XXIV - Beware of Doug

[Volica]

Realistically, how do you guys think the goalie situation will shake out?

Or is it so confusing right now that there's no point in pondering and just let things play out.

Dunno. Johnson if he continues to play well may play himself into a decent 3 or 4 year contract. Outside of that, Flames are still in need of a goalie for next season.

Bishop may have played himself into the goalie dollars Calgary may be looking to pay.

 

[Calculon]

Elliott is starting to remind of Hiller. Even in his good games he's still liable for a soft goal or two against. Can't see him coming back barring a significant change in his fortunes.

If the Flames believe Gillies and Rittich need more development time, I wouldn't mind an Elliott for Niemi @ 3M or Halak @ 3M deal before the deadline. Both goalies have just a year left on their contracts and would platoon with Johnson in 2017/2018.

It'd save the Flames from throwing crazy money & term at Bishop (who's having a pretty bad season) or making a terrible, awful, apocalyptic trade for M. A. Fleury. Re-sign Johnson for 3M or less and the Flames have a potentially solid goaltending cap of 6M or less. But it's also insurance in case Johnson prices himself out (either in salary or term) of Calgary's plans.

 

[Dertell]

Oh I meant as someone we trade for now. But off season could work too.

I know +/- isn't a great stat, but it's interesting that on a team that is -10 overall in GF/GA Leddy is -11, Hamonic is -14 and even Boychuk is only a +1, Seidenberg is a +15 and 7 higher than his next closest teammates. There is luck, sure, but it's interesting. 4th in ice time amongst their D, so he's not getting super sheltered minutes most likely.

I'd be interested to see what some of our local advanced statisticians can tell me about his play this season.

He's doing well vs. previous expectations, but previous expectations don't matter. As a hockey player, he's doing okay. His goal differential is inflated by the high personal and on-ice shooting%. The real story is the Islanders being +9 at 5v5 when the Hamonic/Leddy pair is off the ice. The pair's terrible Corsi and bad powerplay is mostly why they're struggling.

 

[Dertell]

After reading so many conversation about cap space, I felt like I could make a first draft of our situation if we don't make any moves based on how things are going atm.

- At this rate, it seems inevitable Bennett will be bridged; every comparables I could find point to that directions. A 3 years bridge would be preferable, because Frolik/Brouwer will be gone.

- 4.5M AAV is the maximum I can imagine CJ getting, even if it's just a two years deal.

- This leaves a lot of cap space to use, short term. Backlund and Tkachuk will need to be extended in the next two years, perhaps one or two prospects will breakout - they'll carry largee cap hit too and Brodie / Bennett will follow after.

- Fair to assume we'll go 7F / 3D. We only really need 5 forward slots (Gaudreau, Monahan, Backlund, Bennett, Frolik) right now. TB, NYR, NSH and MIN have lots of forwards.

 

[Bounces R Way]

Realistically, how do you guys think the goalie situation will shake out?

Or is it so confusing right now that there's no point in pondering and just let things play out.

Tough to say, I'm still a believer in Elliott because I believe if both are playing at their best, he is still the better goalie. Definitely been a frustrating season for him, even when he plays well he seems to give up a softie, and with the starts becoming more and more important he really needs to turn it around in a hurry if he wants a spot on the team next year. Seems like the type of goalie who could go on a hot streak so maybe that happens.

Johnson has really impressed me though, as calm as a goalie as the Flames have ever had. Pretty much diet Carey Price in that every movement is calculated and doesn't overextend himself ever. I would say his style would lead to more sustainable numbers than Elliott's even if he doesn't make the same athletic highlight reel saves.

Who knows.. goaltending is such a crap shoot and everything could change in a week span.

 

[Fig]

Elliott is starting to remind of Hiller. Even in his good games he's still liable for a soft goal or two against. Can't see him coming back barring a significant change in his fortunes.

If the Flames believe Gillies and Rittich need more development time, I wouldn't mind an Elliott for Niemi @ 3M or Halak @ 3M deal before the deadline. Both goalies have just a year left on their contracts and would platoon with Johnson in 2017/2018.

It'd save the Flames from throwing crazy money & term at Bishop (who's having a pretty bad season) or making a terrible, awful, apocalyptic trade for M. A. Fleury. Re-sign Johnson for 3M or less and the Flames have a potentially solid goaltending cap of 6M or less. But it's also insurance in case Johnson prices himself out (either in salary or term) of Calgary's plans.

I have a feeling #1 is a recently cursed number for goalies on our team. I do like Bishop and I think if STL panics, chasing down Allen might be a good idea while his stock is low.

I'd agree, if you think paying that pick to STL to re-sign Elliott is worth it. Otherwise, I'd rather save that pick, grab a pick for Elliott and try for someone else.

But as Bounces R Way said, who knows.

 

[InfinityIggy]

Elliott is starting to remind of Hiller. Even in his good games he's still liable for a soft goal or two against. Can't see him coming back barring a significant change in his fortunes.

Ive had similar thoughts. Glancing at Elliott's numbers this season, they are eerily similar to his numbers in Colorado and Ottawa.

 

[BigRangy]

I think that you really need to take a look at the goaltending coach and the overall goaltending environment before you start going after a top flight goalie. Hiller and Elliott were much better at stopping pucks before they got here, and it's not like there's been any past successes where a goaltender has played above expectations.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Johnson has been better than Elliott, it's not even a debate. I like Elliott, but it's a results driven business, Johnson hasn't been lucky either, he's solid and steady and he's just been better. I'd like to see him brought back but want a larger sample to know more of what we're getting. I can't see Elliott returning next season.

 

[FlamerForLife]

Johnson has been better than Elliott, it's not even a debate. I like Elliott, but it's a results driven business, Johnson hasn't been lucky either, he's solid and steady and he's just been better. I'd like to see him brought back but want a larger sample to know more of what we're getting. I can't see Elliott returning next season.

I agree 100% with this, also taking into consideration that bringing Elliott back next season would cost us a draft pick (3rd or 4th?), it would be better to just pursue another goaltender, unless Elliott plays lights out for the rest of the year I can't see him coming back for next season.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

I agree 100% with this, also taking into consideration that bringing Elliott back next season would cost us a draft pick (3rd or 4th?), it would be better to just pursue another goaltender, unless Elliott plays lights out for the rest of the year I can't see him coming back for next season.

I could see Elliott going on a streak. But if Johnson continues to play to the level he has, which is an above average #1 goalie, it's kinda foolish to give Elliott starts for the sake of it.

Elliott is a quality #1 though. He will be playing somewhere next season. Johnson has just outplayed him.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

If Rinne is somehow bought out, we gotta sign Rinne to be a backup. It's been forever since we had an elite puck ability goalie (Kirpusoff was the last one I think? And even then Rinne's prime puck abilities were legendary compared to Kipper). He'll be fantastic in helping our breakout and execution. Nashville and St. Louis have such fantastic breakouts and allow very little high danger shots against because their goalies help them with the breakout, whereas Elliott hinders them, and Johnson is alright, but he isn't elite.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

I think that you really need to take a look at the goaltending coach and the overall goaltending environment before you start going after a top flight goalie. Hiller and Elliott were much better at stopping pucks before they got here, and it's not like there's been any past successes where a goaltender has played above expectations.

Both Hiller and Elliott are bad at tracking/handling/controlling/freezing pucks (That's why Hiller had a terrible terrible LD and MD save percentage last season), and gave up a lot more secondary chances than normally. Getting a goalie like Bishop would help eliminate that issue. There's a reason why Johnson is playing fantastic, he helps with our breakouts, and rarely causes unnecessary secondary chances. To determine a truly elite goalie, they have to be able to prevent scoring chances, not just stop them. That's why despite the fact that Nashville has an elite blueline, and Rinne's advanced stats don't seem impressive in his prime years, and seem worse than Hiller in his weak years, yet he's still regarded as an elite goalie (Or was). It's due to the fact that Rinne prevented so many scoring chances with his famous glove hand, and ability to track and prevent rebounds, move the puck, etc. Same goes for why even though Crawford has played very elite when it comes to stopping the puck the last few seasons, he still gets criticism for not being a truly elite goalie, as Crawford causes a lot more headaches and secondary chances than necessary, making the D bail him out far too much. Either way I want to see if we can get Grubauer as a stopgap, or god forbid Holtby, Holtby would make our team contenders alone.

 

[Sparky93]

I'd like to extend Chad, to an Elliott-ish contract for 2-3 years. As far as a backup is concerned, Anders Nilsson has looked great this year, should be relatively cheap. He's never really gotten a fair shot and has had the misfortune of playing on a couple god awful defensive teams. Besides the last guy that came from the Sabres is working out pretty good.

The last thing we need to do is spend cash on an aging goalie, that's already seen too much rubber. If we can't find someone short term and cheap, give one of the kids a shot.

 

[DFF]

It's simple. Sign Chad Johnson to an extension. 4M/year for 3 years
Give Rittich a chance to back him up.

Gillies and MacDonald in the AHL. I have low expectation on them. Maybe 5% for Gillies and 1% for MacDonald.

Parsons is next Flames phantom goalie hope. He looks good. At least he has the mental capacity for it. I like goalie that win under pressure.

Start drafting a few more goalies. Even lottery somebody has to win some time. The more tickets the better the odd ..lol

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

I'd like to extend Chad, to an Elliott-ish contract for 2-3 years. As far as a backup is concerned, Anders Nilsson has looked great this year, should be relatively cheap. He's never really gotten a fair shot and has had the misfortune of playing on a couple god awful defensive teams. Besides the last guy that came from the Sabres is working out pretty good.

The last thing we need to do is spend cash on an aging goalie, that's already seen too much rubber. If we can't find someone short term and cheap, give one of the kids a shot.

Lehner faces the third lowest HDSA/60 5 on 5, only behind Dubnyk and Budaj. So I don't think the Sabres are as bad defensively as people say. Doesn't mean they are a top 3 defensive team, in fact I'd still say they're a below average defensive team, but just below average, not horrible like people stereotype.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Does Loui Eriksson have a NMC? If he doesn't, what if we offered Brouwer and a few other pieces for Eriksson? Let's see if Eriksson can produce with Gaudreau and either Bennett/Monahan. If he can't, expose him, and it's almost guaranteed LV takes him as he still has some scoring touch, and he can help them reach the cap floor.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

I think you could get Johnson for 3 years at 3 million and if you sign him around a months time. That would be pretty harsh to Elliott, but it is a business.

 

[Sparky93]

Lehner faces the third lowest HDSA/60 5 on 5, only behind Dubnyk and Budaj. So I don't think the Sabres are as bad defensively as people say. Doesn't mean they are a top 3 defensive team, in fact I'd still say they're a below average defensive team, but just below average, not horrible like people stereotype.

I was actually referring to the Oilers and 2014 Islanders

 

[Sparky93]

Does Loui Eriksson have a NMC? If he doesn't, what if we offered Brouwer and a few other pieces for Eriksson? Let's see if Eriksson can produce with Gaudreau and either Bennett/Monahan. If he can't, expose him, and it's almost guaranteed LV takes him as he still has some scoring touch, and he can help them reach the cap floor.

He has a NMC and that's one of the worst contracts in the NHL

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

He has a NMC and that's one of the worst contracts in the NHL

Well that idea is gone then, if he didn't, we can take a chance with him by giving the Canucks some grit and some of our overpaid bums lol.

 

[Sparky93]

Well that idea is gone then, if he didn't, we can take a chance with him by giving the Canucks some grit and some of our overpaid bums lol.

I'd rather have Brouwer, taking contracts into consideration.

 

[Fig]

Glancing at a thread on the trade forums... Washington might have some interesting expansion exposure pieces and are possibly looking to dump a little cap. Let's say realistically, the pieces Washington is willing to part with are Orpik and Grubauer. As the other players possibly may disrupt their cup run more.

Would you offer Elliott + for those two? What is the plus? I am assuming Washington wants roster players. Would Eggs and Stajan be interesting pieces for them to consider for their run/even out the salary?


Why Washington might do this: Take pieces they may lose anyways, apply that value for expiring pieces for a cup run. They don't lose main pieces like Alzner etc. for their run

Why we may do this: I presume Orpik is still good enough to be a #4 LD for a year or two. Most of our D can be filled in with kids on ELC so we could absorb his contract for 2 years. Grubauer would be the goalie we protect and acquiring him is useful moreso only if we miss the bus on a guy like Bishop (McCollum is RFA exposed to meet requirements). He sees like a piece that can be flipped again or just roll the dice on him to see if he pans out while we wait for the kids to develop. Johnson probably can do a handshake agreement to sign with us after the expansion draft. Get value for Elliott if he is not in the long term plans. Might even be able to get value for Eggs, Stajan, Bouma, TSpoon, Jokkipakka or a few bottom 6 depth roster players depending on what Washington actually wants and again, those are pieces worth nothing if kept past the TDL as they are expiring (unless management wants to extend them).

Why Washington might not do this: Value is off/Not the right roster players available from us. Bad experience with our former players. May want Johnson instead.

Why we might not do this: Orpik would immediately be Wideman contract 2.0. Orpik is 36 years old. Some of you may not like Grubauer.


My concerns: I think we could ask for draft picks or prospects for that trade. IMO we are helping them a lot and our players have way more value than theirs. If that's the case such a trade may make sense mostly if we are out of playoff contention.


Question for you guys, how badly is this off value and team needs wise?

Washington
Orpik + Grubauer + (Mid pick or prospect?)

Calgary
Elliott + Eggs + Jokkipakka/Bouma

(I think salary is close...)

Play Orpik as 2nd pairing LD for 2 seasons or as mentor to kid on 3rd pairing, protect Grubauer, expose McCollum, sign Johnson and or Bishop in FA. Trade Grubauer if necessary.

Misc: Brouwer has history with these guys and could help them adjust to our team a little faster.


Thoughts?


EDIT: I think if we have both goalies hit FA anyways, we can swap Elliott for Johnson in the trade (assuming Johnson outplays Elliott) and ask for a better + from Washington.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Glancing at a thread on the trade ... Washington might have some interesting expansion exposure pieces and are possibly looking to dump a little cap. Let's say realistically, the pieces Washington is willing to part with are Orpik and Grubauer. As the other players possibly may disrupt their cup run more.

Would you offer Elliott + for those two? What is the plus? I am assuming Washington wants roster players. Would Eggs and Stajan be interesting pieces for them to consider for their run/even out the salary?


Why Washington might do this: Take pieces they may lose anyways, apply that value for expiring pieces for a cup run. They don't lose main pieces like Alzner etc. for their run

Why we may do this: I presume Orpik is still good enough to be a #4 LD for a year or two. Most of our D can be filled in with kids on ELC so we could absorb his contract for 2 years. Grubauer would be the goalie we protect and acquiring him is useful moreso only if we miss the bus on a guy like Bishop (McCollum is RFA exposed to meet requirements). He sees like a piece that can be flipped again or just roll the dice on him to see if he pans out while we wait for the kids to develop. Johnson probably can do a handshake agreement to sign with us after the expansion . Get value for Elliott if he is not in the long term plans. Might even be able to get value for Eggs, Stajan, Bouma, TSpoon, Jokkipakka or a few bottom 6 depth roster players depending on what Washington actually wants and again, those are pieces worth nothing if kept past the TDL as they are expiring (unless management wants to extend them).

Why Washington might not do this: Value is off/Not the right roster players available from us. Bad experience with our former players. May want Johnson instead.

Why we might not do this: Orpik would immediately be Wideman contract 2.0. Orpik is 36 years old. Some of you may not like Grubauer.


My concerns: I think we could ask for picks or for that trade. IMO we are helping them a lot and our players have way more value than theirs. If that's the case such a trade may make sense mostly if we are out of playoff contention.


Question for you guys, how badly is this off value and team needs wise?

Washington
Orpik + Grubauer + (Mid pick or prospect?)

Calgary
Elliott + Eggs + Jokkipakka/Bouma

(I think salary is close...)

Play Orpik as 2nd pairing LD for 2 seasons or as mentor to kid on 3rd pairing, protect Grubauer, expose McCollum, sign Johnson and or Bishop in FA. Trade Grubauer if necessary.

Misc: Brouwer has history with these guys and could help them adjust to our team a little faster.


Thoughts?

Orpik would be better than Wideman because at least Orpik is good in his own zone, yes he has zero mobility and is always hemmed, but so does Wideman, and Wideman is actually bad in his own zone. Brodie can help him out.

 

[Lunatik]

No. Both Elliott and Johnson are far superior to Grubauer and Orpik's contract is absolutely ****ing awful, keep it far far far away