Are the Leafs a paper tiger?

[Whaleafs]

The pure defensive dman is not a good idea. They cost too high and is not where the league is going right bow. Oilers overpaid bad for Larrson.

When you're bad defensively why would you upgrade your defensive capabilities ?
That's exactly what they'd expect you to do.

 

[Brobust]

You think their D group has the same quality with Larsson as it did without?

The percentage of shots Talbot faced from the slot and high slot, both high danger areas, actually increased from 15-16 to 16-17. The defence did not improve with Larsson in the there. Cam Talbot had a better season.

 

[Liferleafer]

The percentage of shots Talbot faced from the slot and high slot, both high danger areas, actually increased from 15-16 to 16-17. The defence did not improve with Larsson in the there. Cam Talbot had a better season.

Oh goody! More charts and graphs...no sense watching hockey anymore.

 

[Blender]

That says more about the Leafs offense than it says about Andersen's goaltending.

It also depends how they're defining "high danger." Do tips or deflections from otherwise mundane shots count? I think the Leafs have allowed at least 4 goals of that type.

How about missed shots that bounce off the end-boards right onto a completely un-checked opposing forward?

How about rush chances where a forward playing defense stick-checks the puck directly on his own goal?

These are goals that won't happen this frequently through the whole season. Your advanced stats have their limitations 4 games into the season. THey can't account for these goals going in at an unsustainable rate.

High danger scoring chances account for where a shot was taken, and statistically over a large sample size more of those shots are going to go in. That's why the stats is used and why it's important for players to get to those areas. It doesn't provide any context for the actual quality of the shot taken though. I definitely didn't see the Leafs get the same kind of tips, screens, cross ice passes, and breakaways the Devils were getting (they obviously had some), despite having more high danger scoring chances. Quite a few of their high danger scoring chances were scrums in front where they were shooting right into Schneider. Don't get me wrong he had a fantastic game, but stats without context don't always tell the entire story.

 

[Liferleafer]

Oh goody! More charts and graphs...no sense watching hockey anymore.

Oh, and if you read the responses in that tweet, it equates to 1 more slot shot per game year to year....now, i would like to see Larsson's personal stats in that regard.

 

[bunjay]

High danger scoring chances account for where a shot was taken, and statistically over a large sample size more of those shots are going to go in. That's why the stats is used and why it's important for players to get to those areas. It doesn't provide any context for the actual quality of the shot taken though. I definitely didn't see the Leafs get the same kind of tips, screens, cross ice passes, and breakaways the Devils were getting (they obviously had some), despite having more high danger scoring chances. Quite a few of their high danger scoring chances were scrums in front where they were shooting right into Schneider. Don't get me wrong he had a fantastic game, but stats without context don't always tell the entire story.

So, in other words, it's a stat that should be ignored if you're talking about 4 games.

 

[Menzinger]

The percentage of shots Talbot faced from the slot and high slot, both high danger areas, actually increased from 15-16 to 16-17. The defence did not improve with Larsson in the there. Cam Talbot had a better season.

Tangible evidence won't sway anyone's opinion with Larsson.

 

[Blender]

Tangible evidence won't sway anyone's opinion with Larsson.

Tangible evidence of what? I don't see anything specific to Larsson in there, positive or negative. It's talking about the team as a whole. Did Larsson play 60 minutes a game for 82 games in 16-17?

 

[Brobust]

Oh goody! More charts and graphs...no sense watching hockey anymore.

Right. Watching and game and tracking shots and chances in your mind is more reliable than a chart.

How about you enjoy the game, make your observations and check if the stats back up your eye test?

For me, whenever I watch Larsson I think of him as a negative impact player. He's doesn't prevent chances when he's on the ice and he doesn't contribute muchoffensively.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Oh goody! More charts and graphs...no sense watching hockey anymore.

Nobody looks at stats to replace watching hockey. They do it because they know they can't know everything that happens just by watching. Unless they're as arrogant as you I guess

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

What are Leafs' fans thoughts on Hainsey so far? Honestly curious.

 

[Liferleafer]

Nobody looks at stats to replace watching hockey. They do it because they know they can't know everything that happens just by watching. Unless they're as arrogant as you I guess

Nice.

You see, here's the thing, advanced stats people tell me that the Leafs were better than the devils last game. 50 shots!! Corsi!! danger area chances!!!..well, watching the game said something entirely different! Not sure how that makes me arrogant, but i'm old....what do i know?

 

[Liferleafer]

What are Leafs' fans thoughts on Hainsey so far? Honestly curious.

Playing quite well actually. Nothing flashy, but seems to have given stability to the Rielly pairing.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

What are Leafs' fans thoughts on Hainsey so far? Honestly curious.

I like how solid he is. He lets Rielly do his thing more and calms the team down defensively

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Playing quite well actually. Nothing flashy, but seems to have given stability to the Rielly pairing.

I like how solid he is. He lets Rielly do his thing more and calms the team down defensively

Figured he'd look a bit better than in Pittsburgh if he was paired with a puck mover to mitigate his limited puck moving ability.

From the games I've seen, he's looked like the Penguins' version minus the over-handling of the puck.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Nice.

You see, here's the thing, advanced stats people tell me that the Leafs were better than the devils last game. 50 shots!! Corsi!! danger area chances!!!..well, watching the game said something entirely different!

maybe that means you aren't watching correctly. Stats aren't lies. It would be like me saying "Well I went to a McDonald's once and the place was totally empty. My eye test says it's a failure of a restaurant and I dont care what fancy advanced stats say about how well they do"

 

[Liferleafer]

maybe that means you aren't watching correctly. Stats aren't lies. It would be like me saying "Well I went to a McDonald's once and the place was totally empty. My eye test says it's a failure of a restaurant and I dont care what fancy advanced stats say about how well they do"

We lost 6-3, again....i am old, but i'm pretty sure that's the stat that matters. I will take moral victories when i can get them, but i was actually at the game....our D was horrific....it's why we lost.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

We lost 6-3, again....i am old, but i'm pretty sure that's the stat that matters.

it's the only stat that matters for a results based league, but it's not the only stat that matters for how well a team played

 

[Liferleafer]

it's the only stat that matters for a results based league, but it's not the only stat that matters for how well a team played

Well, you need points to make the playoffs....then you need 16 wins to win the cup....you don't think it's a results based league? Until they add points for high percentage shots...or being the better Corsi team while losing the game, then preaching advanced stats is useless. I mean honestly, you think any Leaf fn watching that game was praising our high percentage chances? Or screaming "Yay...our Corsi is awesome"! No, they were bitching about defensive breakdowns....giveaways and all around bad play.

Advanced stats are good for management to assess upcoming games, or to look at draft picks you may be interested, but i highly doubt teams like the Penguins care about Phil Kessel's fancy stats while they hoist the cup.

 

[Blender]

it's the only stat that matters for a results based league, but it's not the only stat that matters for how well a team played

There is a distinction between saying "the Leafs controlled the majority of play" and "the Leafs badly outplayed the Devils but goaltending was the difference" as well though. I'd agree with the first and disagree with the second based on how the goals were created and scored within the game, and the quality of chances each team had. The Leafs have fantastic offensive quality and depth, but their defensive play in the game wasn't very good at all when they needed it.

 

[zeke]

I'm a Leafs fan, and watch the games, and I think they do give up an alarming number of high danger chances. Andersen is a good goalie, team defense is a big reason his save percentage is so poor right now. Also a disproportionate number of tips/deflections so far this season that will inevitably go down.

ever notice how many high danger chances our opponents allow every game?

 

[GordieHoweHatTrick]

Winning with below average goaltending doesn't typically last the whole season

source: am Jets fan

Andersen started off brutally last season too, shades of Toskala, and look how the rest of the season turned out.

 

[bunjay]

ever notice how many high danger chances our opponents allow every game?

Yes. Ever notice how the Leafs have three lines that are extremely dangerous offensively?

 

[Liferleafer]

ever notice how many high danger chances our opponents allow every game?

A bunch, it's why we are 3-1.

 

[bunjay]

What are Leafs' fans thoughts on Hainsey so far? Honestly curious.

Pretty solid. Our most consistent defender in our own zone. THat might not be saying a lot.