Disclaimer:
(All text written before the preseason game today against Minny haha)
Yeah, I am pretty high on
Andrew Copp, I think he is very underrated, and I would like him tried in the top-6 as our 2nd line center.
I understand he's not a sexy player. He was not a high draft pick, nor is he scoring highlight-reel goals, but it is difficult to argue with his on ice results on even strength as a two-way player.
Over the last three seasons he has the third best GF% (forwards) in the league on a top 15 that goes (GF%):
Oshie 60.9
Craig Smith 60.4
Andrew Copp 59.8
Panarin 59.2
Kucherov 59.1
Zucker 59.0
Schwartz 59.0
Radulov 58.8
Pastrnak 58.7
Point 58.7
Bergeron 58.6
Backstrom 58.6
Connolly 58.6
Josh Anderson 58.5
Marchand 58.4
And just last season, Copp was third to only Crosby and Teravainen.
If we look at GF% Rel, over the last three seasons Copp is the 12th best in the league on a top 15 that goes:
Mark Stone, Zetterberg, Palmieri, Hall, Couturier, Mackinnon, McDavid, Mantha, Teravainen, Barkov, Aho, Copp, Rantanen, Zucker, Landeskog
Just last season, Copp was second to only Radulov in GF% Rel.
(all stats from naturalstattrick.com)
As seen, Copp is in great company with a lot of solid two-way players.
Looking on the Jets alone, Copp is the clear leader in those stats at 5v5.
Copp has more DZ starts than OZ starts (52.7% over the last three regular seasons), and as we know, he has faced tough competition on the CLT line with great results, so I can't see, why he shouldn't be able to succeed playing with more offensively skilled guys against tough competition.
Looking back on his draft pages on HFJets, I noticed University of Michigan hockey fans all telling, how Copp excelled when given increased opportunity, and showed quite a bit of offensive potential.
He does it by having high hockey IQ and compete level, and always being in the right position causing him and his line to have a high percentage of HDCF (best on the Jets over the last three seasons with a HDCF% Rel of 7.41).
Looking at more "advanced stats", the picture is the same.
Copp has a (slightly) positive impact on the offence and a clear beneficial impact on the defence (data from 2017-19).
View attachment 255585
or according to evolving hockeys RAPM model (data from 2016-19), a positive impact at even strength, just don't play him on the PP:
View attachment 255597
He is among the best Jets in Evolving Hockeys GAR model (2018-19 data) (if you take away impact from PP, he looks to be the best at even strength).
View attachment 255599
He compares quite well to Scheifele, a legit top center in the league, Scheifele being better rated offensively according to Evolving Hockeys GAR model (data from 2016-19), but Copp better defensively.
View attachment 255601
He has shown it consistently on the Jets; CLT - the "Lowry line", may after all have been the "Copp line", as the two others did not get nearly as good results, after Copp was moved. Centering Lemieux/Appleton and Ehlers/Laine, those lines have also outplayed and outscored the opposition.
I think he is underplayed 5v5 (incomprehensible that his TOI was down last season compared with the previous), and I would like to see him centering Ehlers (RW) and Connor (LW). Connor is one of the few, who can keep up with Ehlers' speed, and Copp is quite mobile himself. Defensively, Copp being clearly above-average should be able to make up for Connor being below average, and Ehlers somewhat average (I see Ehlers as a shooter and a goal scorer, and he prefers (or used to?) to play the off wing, so why not put him in a position to succeed).
Those Jets fans claiming Copp, will never be more than a bottom-6 guy, I would like to know why? I have seen no objective data suggest, he can't get good results in a top-6 role. Again, I define top-6 based on achieved results (and accordingly TOI), not sexyness/60.
