AJ Greer (2015, 39th overall)

[tigervixxxen]

[nhl]831843[/nhl]

Real tough to not like this kid

 

[lukesteer]

This is going around in circles. I think SAH's point is what SPECIFICALLY points to Greer having that upside? Rather than just saying scouts, teams etc like his size and potential role because that could be said for any prospect. He watched him once and wasn't impressed. Fair or not it is at least a reason to base an opinion so he's asking for something specific to change his mind.

I was impressed he scored a huge goal in that big game with the bomb of a one timer, that's at least a specific reason why I like his upside. Other than he's young, raw and has tools. He's got a long way to go, the end point is tougher and further to see on him but could yield big returns.

What specifically points to him having that upside? How about 63 points (24 G, 39 A) in 34 games at Kimball Union? Made even more impressive by him being a December birthday? Sakic has explicitly mentioned that that's part of the reason Greer projects so well (in their opinion).

 

[Othello*]

His production is almost exactly like Kevin Hayes so far.

 

[henchman21]

Specifically what gives Greer his upside... his toolset. He has all the tools to be a top 6 PF type. Size, shot, speed, nasty demeanor, willingness to go to the dirty areas, relentless style of play, etc. None of that means that he absolutely will turn into a top 6 sort of player, but the raw tools are all there and all of them are at a high level. His snapshot is one of the better in the draft and has the look of a guy that will pot 15-20g based on his shot alone (not including his greasy goals). His skating is already pretty good for a kid his size that is still growing into his body. The top speed and stride are there, he needs to learn how to be more efficient with his stride. That will come. In the offensive zone, he reads the play well and knows exactly where a kid his size needs to be. Defensively... I'm not sure he if he is just behind the play, if he is lazy, or if he just doesn't understand how to apply himself physically. We will see in time on him.

Now I am not going to project Greer into a top 6 PF at this moment. I think there are too many small things to iron out in his game, but absolutely the physical tools are there and I think mentally they are there too. The kid reminds me so much of Chris Kreider at the same age. Skating, physicality, and shot...

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Specifically what gives Greer his upside... his toolset. He has all the tools to be a top 6 PF type. Size, shot, speed, nasty demeanor, willingness to go to the dirty areas, relentless style of play, etc. None of that means that he absolutely will turn into a top 6 sort of player, but the raw tools are all there and all of them are at a high level. His snapshot is one of the better in the draft and has the look of a guy that will pot 15-20g based on his shot alone (not including his greasy goals). His skating is already pretty good for a kid his size that is still growing into his body. The top speed and stride are there, he needs to learn how to be more efficient with his stride. That will come. In the offensive zone, he reads the play well and knows exactly where a kid his size needs to be. Defensively... I'm not sure he if he is just behind the play, if he is lazy, or if he just doesn't understand how to apply himself physically. We will see in time on him.

Now I am not going to project Greer into a top 6 PF at this moment. I think there are too many small things to iron out in his game, but absolutely the physical tools are there and I think mentally they are there too. The kid reminds me so much of Chris Kreider at the same age. Skating, physicality, and shot...

Thx hench. Great post.

The other I like very much about this kid is that I think I read somewhere that he was the second youngest freshman either in his division or all of NCAA (not sure which one) so he had to earn his ice time and he did just that. He fought his way from being benched all the way to playing top-6 in the Frozen Four. That's quite a feat for such a young kid. I really can't wait to see what he does on a much larger role for a full year in one of the best NCAA programs.

 

[Stories]

Thx hench. Great post.

The other I like very much about this kid is that I think I read somewhere that he was the second youngest freshman either in his division or all of NCAA (not sure which one) so he had to earn his ice time and he did just that. He fought his way from being benched all the way to playing top-6 in the Frozen Four. That's quite a feat for such a young kid. I really can't wait to see what he does on a much larger role for a full year in one of the best NCAA programs.

With the graduations and departures, Greer will be a lock for the top line next season.

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

Greer was drafted to fill a different role than all of those guys, that's why it matters that he's a huge naturally-gifted athlete, who's skating is strength, who has great work ethic, and who, Roykic/other-scouts believe, has a skill level that you don't see. They wanted a real PWF for this team, someone who wasn't just big and strong like Landy, MacK and Rantanen; but someone who was such a powerful force that he could wreck havoc on a playoff series even if he isn't replacing Iggy on the top line. Someone like Lucic, Byfuglien and Bickell have been, but with the hope his skill level and skating puts him closer to Lucic than Bickell; and his work ethic makes him more consistent than any of them.



As for your tangent, since I'm bored:
-Bleackley absolutely has the potential to be a top 6 RW in the NHL, sure some avs fans that haven't seen him have looked up his stats and freaked out, but that doesn't actually mean there's anything to that.
-Henley does not have the hands or offensive instincts to ever be a top 6er he's also not dynamic enough of a skater to make up for limited skill. He's also 22 at the end of the month and no scouts have attributed such upside to him since joining our organization (no clue what the word on him was when he was 18), nor was he signed to ever fill such a role. So no one should attribute that potential to him, that's why no one does.
-Pretty sure Westlund has been god awful and has gotten no stronger since being drafted. Again never been projected to become a top 4 guy by anyone, has not made big developmental steps to get anyone to start projecting him as such, and is almost 2 years older. So again there's nothing suggesting he's trending upwards and should have this ceiling attributed to him, that's why it isn't. (some over swedish fans can correct me if I'm wrong)
-I don't know how how much skill he has in that frame and how his skating is, so I've got no clue what Olhaver's potential is. Haven't read anything yet suggesting the skill for top 6 upside, but maybe he does. *shrug* I'll give you this one. Olhaver might have top 6 potential if he has some skill to work with and can skate.
-Is Storm even still a dman? He's much older than Greer and has struggled a lot since being drafted without making any of the strides he needed to make to become a third pairing guy. Attributing that kind of upside to him would make no sense since there's nothing indicating it.
-Nantel does have top 6 potential, though he needs to keep progressing as he did last year for a while yet.



So what do any of these have to do with Greer? No one else in the organization has the potential Greer does as an overwhelming PWF on the wings. You don't think Roykic, his College coach, and the scouts who've mentioned it are right to think he has skill; that's you're prerogative, but doesn't mean Roykic think that and that doesn't mean the rest of us are going to rush to judgement on this long term project alongside you.

What does role have to do with anything? Top 6 potential is top 6 potential regardless of role or needs.

Yes Bleackley does have top 6 potential, but most people are more cautious with him and talk about his ceiling being a tweener. There is no caution with Greer though.

You are right, Henley doesn't have the skating. But that is something that can be improved upon. If he improves that then he could be a top 6 complementary player. The potential is still there. He just needs to develop in certain areas. It's no different than Greer. Greer doesn't have the hands or IQ to be a top6 player, but if he improves upon those things then the potential is there.

Yes, Westlund has been a disappointment. What's stopping Greer from taking the same lack of development path? Do you know who else was thought of as not having high potential? Every single late round puck and undrafted player who carves out a top6/4 role in the nhl.

Everything I've read about Olhaver suggests a lot better puck skill level than Greer. Sounds similar to Everberg. Nothing flashy but smart and effective with limited mistakes. Sounds like his skating is very good as well.

Storm is big, tough and skates well for his size. That doesn't sound familiar regarding Greer? And maybe Storm didn't get time at Dman, but they put him at forward just to get him on the ice and he even moved up the depth chart. He also has basic puck skills down.

People disagree with Roy and Sakic all the time. The scouting reports are conflicting so can't really trust them, especially the ones breaking down his game in HS where he truly was a man amongst boys. And I'm certainly not putting much emphasis on him moving up the depth chart. With all the bottom 6 scrubs we have played in the top 6 in the past I would think everyone here would take that fact with a grain of salt.

I'm not saying Roy or Sakic think he doesn't have potential. I'm not even saying the kid doesn't have potential. And I'm not trying to convince anyone to agree with me. My god why does everything have to be a win or lose argument? Why can't people just discuss differences of opinions?

This is going around in circles. I think SAH's point is what SPECIFICALLY points to Greer having that upside? Rather than just saying scouts, teams etc like his size and potential role because that could be said for any prospect. He watched him once and wasn't impressed. Fair or not it is at least a reason to base an opinion so he's asking for something specific to change his mind.

I was impressed he scored a huge goal in that big game with the bomb of a one timer, that's at least a specific reason why I like his upside. Other than he's young, raw and has tools. He's got a long way to go, the end point is tougher and further to see on him but could yield big returns.

Yes, thank you.

I was impressed with him still though. The kid is obviously physically gifted. And I really like how young he is. I just think his potential should be held in check like we do for most every prospect until they start tapping into that potential. Even when it came to Wood, when someone would mention his potential, said poster would get jumped on because Wood had a lot of development to do still and the odds of him reaching his ceiling was very low. Same with Bleackley. If someone would mention top line for him others would say that's not possible, he is a middle line player. Later round picks, people act like the potential isn't there at all, but even these late round guys can reach a high ceiling if they develop properly. I just don't get why everyone wants to paint Greer as having such a high ceiling when we take more of a cautious approach with the other prospects. If Greer is Lucic if developed properly then Bigras is Josi, Bleackley is a goal scoring RoR, Geertsen is Weber, etc. But those comparisons would get dump on very quickly, even though those guys have the potential to reach that level.

And yeah, looking for someone to change my mind and explain why a great athlete has more potential than a smart and skilled prospect with average athleticism. The nhl isn't exactly dominated by tremendous athletes (6'2" 225 pound, strong as hell, great skaters). And it's not like an average athlete can't get bigger, stronger and faster.

Sorry Hence, but I can't believe for a second that anyone who scores that little has one of the best shots in the draft, regardless of their role.

 

[CalderKing21]

Thx hench. Great post.

The other I like very much about this kid is that I think I read somewhere that he was the second youngest freshman either in his division or all of NCAA (not sure which one) so he had to earn his ice time and he did just that. He fought his way from being benched all the way to playing top-6 in the Frozen Four. That's quite a feat for such a young kid. I really can't wait to see what he does on a much larger role for a full year in one of the best NCAA programs.

That speaks a lot to his development through the year. That is part of the reason I think he has a lot of upside.
He is still growing into his frame, he is likely to see a top 6 role next season when he will still be very young and keep on developing.
I fully expect to see refinement of his game as the season progresses and him to improve more and more.

 

[henchman21]

Sorry Hence, but I can't believe for a second that anyone who scores that little has one of the best shots in the draft, regardless of their role.

You missed a lot of context in all of this. I said better, not best. Meaning it is in the higher end of this draft class, but wouldn't contend with the very high end of this draft (for instance Korostelev has a better pure shot and it isn't that close). Also, the kid was buried on the 4th line for most of the season and was in a mucking it up sort of role. Those lines simply don't score in college. Kevin Hayes only scored 4 goals on a 3rd/4th line in his freshman season where he was a year older... he will hit 20g multiple times in his NHL career. I'm personally not trying to convince anybody that he is a great prospect, I put out my info and people can take it as they wish.

 

[tigervixxxen]

I liked Greer today, he's got a bit of spunk and his athletic talents are certainly there. He probably has 3 more years at BU ahead of him so it will be a while it he's a good prospect to have.

 

[CalderKing21]

I liked Greer today, he's got a bit of spunk and his athletic talents are certainly there. He probably has 3 more years at BU ahead of him so it will be a while it he's a good prospect to have.

He should be exciting to watch. It's like having that great draft and stash European player in basketball. You let them develop in their league and then bring them into the fold.

 

[Bender]

Not a fan of this selection, not because of him as a player, but where he was picked. I would much rather risk him falling to third than pick him with our 1st of two 2nd rounders. The biggest reason is because the dude is EXTREMELY raw. This isn't Justin Bailey raw, AJ is easily way more raw than Justin. But he is well built for a 17/18 year old, great on the forecheck, and possesses a heavy shot.

Was bounced around from 4th to healthy scratch due to his age and the rawness I spoke of. Should definitely get more minutes next year and have better offensive numbers. Don't think he is as good as Kevin Hayes, as Kevin reads the play higher while Greer is still learning, but expect the same type of player IMO.

I wouldn't saw RAW, I'd say he's RARE. (as in even more than raw)

Agree 100%.

What gives this guy so much talent and upside compared to others? A McGinn type is about the best we can hope for IMO.

Lol, it's actually pretty funny, I had a chance to have a look at Greer last night, in a game vs NorthEastern (Beanpot Championship game) and I came here to post that he reminds me of Jamie McGinn.

However, I will say this...it's one thing to play junior hockey where other players are generally the same age within a couple of years and another thing to play NCAA against players who range all the way up to 22-23 years old. The kid played a role on that club as a 17 year old and gradually got better as the year went on. I'm ready to give the benefit of the doubt to our scouts on this one.

While it's highly unlikely he becomes the next Max Pacioretty, someone in the thread mentioned Deadmarsh and I think that's certainly not out of reach. Neither McGinn nor Deader has/had much 'dangle' to their games and both guys were more 'North-South' guys. Bottom line - if 2-3 years from now, we get a prospect that ranges between McGinn and Deadmarsh, I'll be pretty pleased, personally speaking. Not sure why there's any arguing going on. Everyone is allowed to have their own take on individual prospects.

Maybe Anders Lee is a better comparable? That's not half bad either.

Regardless, it's more difficult to evaluate a player playing under the circumstances that Greer did this year in comparison to a regular junior kid playing in the CHL, in my opinion. Time will tell but he's definitely a project.

 

[The Kingslayer]

Can any of my francophone pals translate?

 

[AslanRH]

I can tell you this, following @BSNAvalanche has made me even more positive about this kid just from the reports on how much effort he is putting out there.

That kind of work through 2-3 years of NCAA development should at least net us a very decent tweener.

 

[member 116861]

Can any of my francophone pals translate?

Amazing how there are Aves highlights in that video.

 

[tigervixxxen]

I can tell you this, following @BSNAvalanche has made me even more positive about this kid just from the reports on how much effort he is putting out there.

That kind of work through 2-3 years of NCAA development should at least net us a very decent tweener.

I believe it, the kid was all out going for it in just skating drills up and down the ice.

I like intense players and I have an affinity for power forwards, so I like the guy. We'll see where it goes.

 

[Lemieux22]

If his ceiling is a poor man's Chris Kreider and his floor is a big, fast, physical 4th liner, it's hard not to get excited. This team could use either of those players in the worst way.

 

[Bender]

Can any of my francophone pals translate?

Thank you for posting this.

Essentially, A.J.'s older brother has hydrosephaly and they took really good care of him at Ste-Justine children's hospital so AJ wanted to find a way to give back. He had the idea to organize a charity event to raise funds for the Ste-Justine Fondation. In the game, every player had a sick kid's name on the back of his jersey. The rest of the interview is a bunch of questions about the Habs and who he likes better Luongo or Price. (Luongo)

 

[The Kingslayer]

Amazing how there are Aves highlights in that video.

Haha yah that was neat. I still remember that game aswell.

 

[PBhockey]

I was poking around Google to see what the news and reaction to AJ Greer being selected by the Avalanche and found my way here. (Disclaimer: Blues/Devils fan)

AVs have a really good one here. I became a fan of his by way of the USHL. I was in Des Moines on a weekend a couple of years ago and caught a Bucs game. My friend was coach at the time so I got some "inside" stuff as well.

After a couple of shifts, he was easy to spot. Big, mobile, good hockey sense, a competitor and he had great hands. He started out playing left wing and then when there were a bunch of penalties he has put on defense. In this game he was easily the best player on the ice. By the second period he was being double-shifted and played a big role in a win. He was selected the first star. I went down near the players room to say hi to my buddy. Naturally he was talking about Greer. He told me that this kid was a stud and a sure fire NHL player. Then he told me that he was only 15 and that he was going back to his prep school in Boston because he was only on loan for the weekend.
He was supposed to go to the Bucs but went into university a year early. I watched every game in the Frozen Four on TV. You could tell he was a stud and one of the youngest players. He won his battles, was defensively sound, set up his linemates and scored an NHL goal on a one-timer.

The person who wrote about seeing him in the championship game must have been watching another player. He didn't show poor puck skills. He was one of the 5 best players in the game. I'm pretty sure that there are sites which show this game. If you take the time to watch it again (26 for Boston U), I think you will come up with another version on Greer. I saw that game and I saw absolutely none of what was written. Greer doesn't have Kane hands but he is a top six NHLer for sure. He sure can skate.

Looking at the NHL draft ranking on forums like this was confusing for me. Some had him in the first round and others had him in the later rounds. People like a player or they don't. That's the way of the world and having an opinion matters. It will be interesting for me to hear how things go at the prospect camp and how those who actually saw him feel about him.

I wish that the Blues got him. I may end up becoming an AVs fan after all. I actually liked the Nordiques so it won't be too much of an adjustment. Good luck to the team and the player.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Thanks for taking the time to post. I just saw him in development camp and write a bunch if stuff on him in that thread. I like Greer a lot, he's impressed me this far.

 

[henchman21]

IMO the kid hurt his hype (not draft stock since he went high anyway) when he went to college so early. If he had played a year in the USHL, he would have had as much hype as Boeser. In the end, it might have been a good thing for Greer's development to go to college, but it definitely hurt the media hype on him.

 

[Trinstin]

Kind of off topic but not really, what happened with the 31st overall? I know we traded back and picked AJ Greer but what did we get in addition to the 39th?

 

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

Kind of off topic but not really, what happened with the 31st overall? I know we traded back and picked AJ Greer but what did we get in addition to the 39th?

Got Brad Stuart for free (we traded for the picks we sent for Stuart)

 

[S E P H]

IMO the kid hurt his hype (not draft stock since he went high anyway) when he went to college so early. If he had played a year in the USHL, he would have had as much hype as Boeser. In the end, it might have been a good thing for Greer's development to go to college, but it definitely hurt the media hype on him.

I have warmed up to Greer, though I think he was drafted a bit too early for my liking. Don't think he would have fell to Avs third after thinking more about it, but I wish Avs decided to trade up from 3rd for him somewhere in the late second. BUT I will say I am in agreement with you here, he would have been a PPG player quite easily in the USHL. Which isn't an easy feat to do in the USHL, since it is known as a very good two-way defensive junior league. I don't think he would have had as much hype as Boeser, who is clearly the more talented player IMO, but he would have probably went in the first ten positions of the 2nd.