NFL: AFC Playoff Picture

[Marc the Habs Fan]

In the unlikely event that both Pittsburgh and New England lose one of their last two games, can Jacksonville get to the top seed?

Yes. Jags have tie-breakers on both if it's a 3-way 12-4 tie. Conference record over NE (9-3 vs 10-2), head-to-head over PIT.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Correction of the Miami scenarios. The last 2 with OAK + LAC wins in them aren't sufficient for elimination as I negated to try giving LAC the division instead. So they just have their result and the 3 pairwise results for the 8-6 teams as their 4 scenarios. Everything else has been confirmed

 

[spintheblackcircle]

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Official scenarios: Playoff-clinching scenarios for Week 16 in NFL

AFC

CLINCHED: Pittsburgh -- AFC North; New England -- AFC East; Jacksonville -- playoff berth

New England Patriots
New England clinches homefield advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
1) NE win + PIT loss + JAX loss or tie

New England clinches a first-round bye:
1) NE win + PIT loss
2) NE win + JAX loss or tie
3) NE tie + JAX loss

Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh clinches a first-round bye:
1) PIT win + JAX loss or tie
2) PIT tie + JAX loss

Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville clinches AFC South:
1) JAX win or tie
2) TEN loss or tie

Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City clinches AFC West:
1) KC win
2) LAC loss
3) KC tie + LAC tie

Tennessee Titans
Tennessee clinches a playoff berth:
1) TEN win + BAL loss + BUF loss

 

[misterchainsaw]

I was sure the Tennessee scenario was wrong; didn’t realize they beat the Ravens head to head which would give them the 2nd slot in the three (or four) way tiebreaker involving BUF/BAL/TEN with those specific results at 9-7.

Oh well, time to update.

EDIT: Actually, I have them clinching with just a BAL loss and a win, so I made the mistake the other way, since with a BUF win over NE and a loss tO Miami Baltimore would win that 3 way tiebreaker them Buffalo would get the #6

 

[spintheblackcircle]

 

[justafan22]

As long as the steelers take care of their next 2 games or the jags lose today they'll be fine.

 

[GKJ]

It's like inverse outcomes Bills fans are rooting for.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

I don't see how the Chargers losing (making them 8-8 at most) and Titans winning is a bad scenario for BUF.

They pretty much need a TEN loss against Jacksonville regardless of today's outcome in order to give the Jags 5 AFC losses (unless BUF wins their 2 games, which they most likely won't).

 

[Canada4Gold]

I don't see how the Chargers losing (making them 8-8 at most) and Titans winning is a bad scenario for BUF.

They pretty much need a TEN loss against Jacksonville regardless of today's outcome in order to give the Jags 5 AFC losses (unless BUF wins their 2 games, which they most likely won't).

Titans winning is mostly good for Buffalo since it helps block the LAC h2h and they pretty much need TEN to lose next week anyway. 1 case where it would be bad is if MIA and LAC both lose, then BUF could get in my losing out in a 3 way 8-8 tie with TEN and LAC if TEN also loses next week. The TEN win this week would obviously make that impossible.

edit: delete, this isn't true, I had used an old playoff machine and forgot to switch Baltimore to the win yesterday

 

[misterchainsaw]

It's like inverse outcomes Bills fans are rooting for.

The 49ers beating the Jags would be the cherry on top of the shit sundae.

That would set up a Jags/Titans game that means absolutely nothing to the Jags, but the Bills need the Titans to lose as part of one of the two ways the Bills can get outside help to get in with a win (along with the Chargers losing).

Baltimore losing to Cincy might be the more likely way they get help after the way today went

 

[DangleCity]

Yah. I wasn't buying some of the optimistic reports. That injury looked bad

 

[Canada4Gold]

Assuming the Jags go on to lose here these are the scenarios I have for next week. remaining results this week in brackets.

NE is the 1 seed with...
- (PIT loss)
- (PIT tie)NE win/tie
- (PIT tie)PIT loss/tie
- (PIT win)NE win
- (PIT win)NE tie + PIT tie
- (PIT win)PIT loss

NE is the 2 see with...
- (PIT win)NE tie + PIT win
- (PIT win)NE loss + PIT win/tie
- (PIT tie)NE loss + PIT win

PIT is the 1 seed with...
- (PIT win)PIT win + NE loss/tie
- (PIT win)PIT tie + NE loss
- (PIT tie)PIT win + NE loss

PIT is the 2 seed with...
- (PIT win)NE win
- (PIT win)PIT tie + NE tie
- (PIT win)PIT loss
- (PIT tie)PIT loss/tie
- (PIT tie)NE win/tie
- (PIT loss)PIT win/tie
- (PIT loss)JAC loss/tie

PIT is the 3 seed with...
- (PIT loss)PIT loss + JAC win

JAC is the 2 seed with...
- (PIT loss)JAC win + PIT loss

JAC is the 3 seed with...
- (PIT win/tie)
- (PIT loss)JAC loss/tie
- (PIT loss)PIT win/tie

KC is locked in as the 4 seed

BAL clinches a playoff spot with...
- BAL win/tie
- BUF loss/tie
- TEN loss/tie

BAL is the 5 seed with...
- BAL win/tie
- TEN loss/tie + BUF loss/tie

BAL is the 6 seed with...
- BAL loss + TEN win + BUF loss/tie
- BAL loss + TEN loss/tie + BUF win

TEN clinches a playoff spot with...
- TEN win
- TEN tie + BUF loss/tie + LAC loss/tie
- BUF loss + LAC loss

TEN is the 5 seed with..
- TEN win + BAL loss

TEN is the 6 seed with...
- TEN win + BAL win/tie
- TEN tie + BUF loss/tie + LAC loss/tie
- BUF loss + LAC loss

BUF clinches a playoff spot with...
- BUF win + BAL loss
- BUF win + TEN loss/tie + LAC loss/tie
- BUF tie + TEN loss + LAC loss

BUF is the 5 seed with...
- BUF win + BAL loss + TEN loss/tie

BUF is the 6 seed with...
- BUF win + BAL loss + TEN win
- BUF win + TEN loss/tie + LAC loss/tie
- BUF tie + TEN loss + LAC loss

LAC is the 6 seed with...
- LAC win + BUF loss/tie + TEN loss/tie
- LAC win + BAL win/tie + TEN loss/tie
- LAC tie + BUF loss + BAL loss

 

[misterchainsaw]

So, Jacksonville is locked in as the 3 seed, KC is locked in as the 4 seed. Pittsburgh still has to play tomorrow night, but all of the wild card contenders now have one game to go.

Here's all 16 permutations of results among the 4 wild card contenders (Green signifies a win, Red signifies a loss)
BAL, TEN, LAC, BUF - Baltimore is #5, Tennessee is #6
BAL, TEN, LAC, BUF - Baltimore is #5, Tennessee is #6
BAL, TEN, LAC, BUF - Baltimore is #5, Tennessee is #6
BAL, TEN, LAC, BUF - Baltimore is #5, Los Angeles is #6
BAL, TEN, LAC, BUF - Baltimore is #5, Tennessee is #6
BAL, TEN, LAC, BUF - Baltimore is #5, Los Angeles is #6
BAL, TEN, LAC, BUF - Baltimore is #5, Buffalo is #6
BAL, TEN, LAC, BUF - Baltimore is #5, Tennessee is #6
BAL, TEN, LAC, BUF - Tennessee is #5, Buffalo is #6
BAL, TEN, LAC, BUF - Tennessee is #5, Los Angeles is #6
BAL, TEN, LAC, BUF - Tennessee is #5, Buffalo #6
BAL, TEN, LAC, BUF - Buffalo is #5, Baltimore is #6
BAL, TEN, LAC, BUF - Tennessee is #5, Baltimore is #6
BAL, TEN, LAC, BUF - Baltimore is #5, Los Angeles is #6
BAL, TEN, LAC, BUF - Buffalo is #5, Baltimore is #6
BAL, TEN, LAC, BUF - Baltimore is #5, Tennessee is #6

 

[Canada4Gold]

Jacksonville isn't locked in as the 3 seed if Pittsburgh loses twice, and Jacksonville beats Tennessee.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Jacksonville isn't locked in as the 3 seed if Pittsburgh loses twice, and Jacksonville beats Tennessee.

Fair enough, I was already assuming Pittsburgh was going to beat Houston or Cleveland TBH .

It would be a monumental upset for Pittsburgh to lose to Cleveland, that’s for sure.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Yeah that's true. When doing scenarios I sort of separate myself from who the actual teams are and just see names not even thinking about who the actual teams are.

But dammit, Cleveland is going to pull off the Christmas miracle after Houston also does, only for the Jags to lose to Tennessee anyway

 

[GKJ]

The Bills going with Peterman against the Chargers looks like the biggest mistake of the season, and it already looked like that when it happened.

 

[What the Faulk]

Yup. The Bills got so slaughtered by Allen and Gordon that it may not have mattered, but holy hell what a dumb decision right in the middle of a playoff run.

 

[rangerssharks414]

I have absolutely nothing against the Bills, but I hope this happens.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

With PIT winning big, Jags are officially the 3rd seed. And as a result their game in TEN means nothing to them on Sunday. The interesting dynamic at play here is that if TEN wins that game and BAL wins too, TEN is going to JAX the following week. So the Jags have a strategic decision to make here. Do they go all out for the win to knock out TEN? Do they essentially throw away the game against a very likely playoff opponent and rest whoever they can?

 

[Canada4Gold]

OP updated. Here Entering Week 17:

1. z - NE 12-3
2. z - PIT 12-3
3. y - JAC 10-5
4. y - KC 9-6
-------------
5. BAL 9-6
6. TEN 8-7
-------------
7. LAC 8-7
8. BUF 8-7
-------------
9. OAK 6-8
10. MIA 6-9
11. CIN 6-9
12. DEN 5-10
13. NYJ 5-10
14. HOU 4-11
15. IND 3-12
16. CLE 0-15

x - clinched playoff spot
y - clinched division
z - clinched bye
h - clinched home field advantage through AFC Championship game

Week 17 Scenarios

New England Patriots
NE is the 1 seed with...
- NE win
- NE tie + PIT tie
- PIT loss

NE is the 2 seed with...
- NE tie + PIT win
- NE loss + PIT win/tie

Pittsburgh Steelers
PIT is the 1 seed with...
- PIT win + NE loss/tie
- PIT tie + NE loss

PIT is the 2 seed with...
- NE win
- PIT tie + NE tie
- PIT loss

Jacksonville Jaguars
JAC is lock in as the 3 seed

Kansas City Chiefs
KC is locked in as the 4 seed

Baltimore Ravens
BAL clinches a playoff spot with...
- BAL win/tie
- BUF loss/tie
- TEN loss/tie

BAL is the 5 seed with...
- BAL win/tie
- TEN loss/tie + BUF loss/tie

BAL is the 6 seed with...
- BAL loss + TEN win + BUF loss/tie
- BAL loss + TEN loss/tie + BUF win

Tennessee Titans
TEN clinches a playoff spot with...
- TEN win
- TEN tie + BUF loss/tie + LAC loss/tie
- BUF loss + LAC loss

TEN is the 5 seed with..
- TEN win + BAL loss

TEN is the 6 seed with...
- TEN win + BAL win/tie
- TEN tie + BUF loss/tie + LAC loss/tie
- BUF loss + LAC loss

Buffalo Bills
BUF clinches a playoff spot with...
- BUF win + BAL loss
- BUF win + TEN loss/tie + LAC loss/tie
- BUF tie + TEN loss + LAC loss

BUF is the 5 seed with...
- BUF win + BAL loss + TEN loss/tie

BUF is the 6 seed with...
- BUF win + BAL loss + TEN win
- BUF win + TEN loss/tie + LAC loss/tie
- BUF tie + TEN loss + LAC loss

Los Angeles Chargers
LAC is the 6 seed with...
- LAC win + BUF loss/tie + TEN loss/tie
- LAC win + BAL win/tie + TEN loss/tie
- LAC tie + TEN loss + BUF loss

 

[What the Faulk]

 

[Canada4Gold]

added the chart to the OP