NFL: AFC Playoff Picture

[Canada4Gold]

Hey it's misterchainsaw. I was wondering when you'd be back around, or if the HF switch could have caused some issues as I saw it did for some others. I browse reddit user NFLPlayoffScenarios to verify mine and he has a lot of these seed control things as well. I was surprised last week when nobody in either conference only controlled a WC seed, and this week it was only Detroit who has now lost so presumably they lose that though with that result others may gain control of one.

both conferences are shaping up quite "fun" with playoff scenarios and how complex it may be at the end hopefully.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Yeah the NFC is nuts right now. Still nobody with control of just a wild card spot, and three teams control their own destiny for the NFC South right now. Both conferences really have a lot of teams clumped together, its just that the NFC teams have a couple extra wins. I kinda hope we at least get a little separation

 

[Canada4Gold]

Browns eliminated with the Browns loss. Wouldn't have mattered had they won because the Buffalo win also would have done it.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

The Raiders and Chargers, amazingly, control their destiny to win the division now.

 

[misterchainsaw]

The Raiders and Chargers, amazingly, control their destiny to win the division now.

Football is stupid.

- A bitter Bills fan

EDIT: Actually, the Chiefs would still win the division via conference record if they won all their games except the one against Los Angeles and Los Angeles won out.

 

[DangleCity]

What has a better chance of happening, the Steelers beating the Patriots twice in Pittsburgh or once at Gillette?

 

[Canada4Gold]

time for some really "fun" scenarios where we get to the point where potential SOV's or SOS' are possibly clinched. I normally don't do divisional eliminations but the Broncos could potentially be eliminated from the WC without being eliminated from the division, so I'm including them as an addition to how they could be eliminated from both and thus the playoffs altogether.

These are all confirmed, except the SOV/SOS clinches which are still pending.

Colts are eliminated from the playoffs with...
- IND loss + BAL win + CIN win
- IND loss + MIA win + BUF win + BAL win/tie
- IND loss + MIA win + BUF win + LAC win/tie(MIA clinch SOV)
- IND loss + MIA win + BUF win + NYJ win(MIA clinch SOV)
- IND loss + MIA win + BUF win + TEN win/tie(MIA clinch SOV)
- IND loss + MIA win + BUF win + ATL win(MIA clinch SOV)
- IND loss + MIA win + BUF win + SF loss(MIA clinch SOV)
- IND loss + MIA win + BUF win + NYJ tie + ATL tie(MIA clinch SOV)
- IND loss + MIA win + BUF win + NYJ tie + SF tie(MIA clinch SOV)
- IND loss + MIA win + BUF win + ATL tie + SF tie(MIA clinch SOV)

Broncos are eliminated from the division with...
- DEN tie + KC win + LAC win + OAK win
- DEN tie + KC tie + LAC win + OAK win + KC clinches SOV over DEN*
- DEN loss + KC win + OAK win/tie
- DEN loss + KC win + LAC win/tie
- DEN loss + KC tie + OAK win
- DEN loss + KC tie + OAK tie + LAC win/tie
- DEN loss + OAK win + LAC win/tie
- DEN loss + OAK win + KC clinches SOV over DEN**
- DEN loss + OAK tie + LAC win/tie + KC clinches SOV over DEN***

* - Requires 1 combined win from (NE, PHI, HOU, WAS, JAC), or 1 tie from HOU/JAC + PIT win to clinch SOV tie + SOS win
** - Requires 2 combined wins from (NE, PHI, HOU, WAS, JAC) or 1.5 wins from those teams and a half win or more combined from HOU/JAC + PIT win to clinch SOV tie + SOS win
*** - Requires 1.5 combined wins from (NE, PHI, HOU, WAS, JAC) or 1 win from those teams and a half win or more combined from HOU/JAC + PIT win to clinch SOV tie + SOS win

Broncos are eliminated from the playoffs with...
- DEN loss + BUF win + JAC win/tie + TEN win/tie + DEN division elimination
- DEN loss + BUF win + BAL win/tie + CIN win + DEN division elimination
- DEN loss + JAC win/tie + TEN win/tie + BAL win/tie + CIN win + DEN division elimination

 

[misterchainsaw]

ENTERING WEEK 13: (Again, everything is barring ties - which is why a lot of the division and elimination stuff differs from Canada4Gold's stuff)

Teams already eliminated: Cleveland


Controls own destiny for #1 seed: Pittsburgh, New England
- Regardless of results, these two teams and only these two teams will control their own destiny for the #1 seed entering week 14.

Teams eliminated from #1 seed contention: NY Jets, Miami, Houston, Indianapolis, Denver, Los Angeles(loses strength of victory tiebreakers)
- Cincinnati is eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss
- Oakland is eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss, OR a NE+PIT win
- Buffalo is eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss AND a PIT win
- Baltimore is eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss, NE win, and PIT win.
- Kansas City is eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss, NE win, and PIT win.


Controls own destiny for 1st round bye: Pittsburgh, New England
- Jacksonville gains control of their own destiny with a win, NE loss, and PIT loss

Teams eliminated from 1st round bye contention: Indianapolis, Denver
- NY Jets will be eliminated from 1st round bye contention with a loss or a NE win
- Miami will be eliminated from 1st round bye contention with a loss or a NE win
- Houston will be eliminated from 1st round bye contention with a loss or a PIT win
- Oakland will be eliminated from 1st round bye contention with a loss and a NE+PIT win
- Los Angeles will be eliminated from 1st round bye contention with a loss and a NE win
- Cincinnati is eliminated from 1st round bye contention with a loss


Has clinched division: None
- No clinching scenarios quite yet.

Controls own destiny for division: New England, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Kansas City, Oakland
- Jacksonville can lose control of their own destiny for the AFC South with a loss and a TEN win
- Oakland can lose control of their own destiny for the AFC West with a loss and a KC win
- Los Angeles can gain control of their own destiny for the AFC West with a win and a KC loss

Has been eliminated from divisional contention: Indianapolis
- Denver is eliminated from divisional contention with a KC+OAK+LAC win, plus either (1)Two of these: DAL loss/IND loss/NE win/PHI win/HOU win OR (2) HOU win + PIT win OR (3)IND loss + PIT win
- Denver is eliminated from divisional contention with a loss, plus either (1)Two of these: DAL loss/IND loss/NE win/PHI win/HOU win OR (2)HOU win + PIT win OR (3)IND loss + PIT win
- Denver is eliminated from divisional contention with a loss and a KC or OAK win
- Houston is eliminated from divisional contention with a loss
- Miami is eliminated from divisional contention with a loss or a NE win
- New York is eliminated from divisional contention with a loss or a NE win
- Cincinnati is eliminated from divisional contention with a loss


Has clinched a wild card spot: None
Controls own destiny for a wild card: New England, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Tennessee
- Kansas City and Oakland control their own destiny for the playoffs solely through their division.
- Baltimore gains control of their own destiny with a win and either a (1)TEN+JAX loss, (2)BUF loss, or (3)a PIT loss
- Buffalo gains control of their own destiny with a win and either a BAL loss, PIT loss or TEN+JAX loss
Elimination Scenarios
- Denver is eliminated with a loss and a KC or OAK win
- Indianapolis is eliminated with a loss and a CIN and BAL win.
- Indianapolis is eliminated with a loss and a BUF and MIA win and one of the following: BAL win/ATL win/TEN win/CLE loss/SF loss (I'm not touching strength of schedule clinching because one of these is definitely going to happen and there's way too many moving parts there )



Lot of crazy stuff this week. Buffalo very nearly controls their own destiny with just a TEN win rather than needing both JAX and TEN to lose in that scenario, but JAX can just barely catch them in strength of victory. I also ended up with a flat out coin flip for the AFC West in a couple of scenarios between KC and Denver.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Has clinched a wild card spot: None
Controls own destiny for a wild card: New England, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Baltimore
- Kansas City and Oakland control their own destiny for the playoffs solely through their division.
- Baltimore loses control of their own destiny with a loss and a BUF win
- Buffalo gains control of their own destiny with a win and either a BAL loss, PIT loss or TEN+JAX loss
Elimination Scenarios
- Denver is eliminated with a loss and a KC or OAK win
- Indianapolis is eliminated with a loss and a CIN and BAL win.
- Indianapolis is eliminated with a loss and a BUF and MIA win (I have MIA clinching SOV over Indy with just these two results known in all 3 way tie scenarios with Baltimore. Any other tie goes to Miami on common games or another team because of a better conference record)



Lot of crazy stuff this week. Buffalo very nearly controls their own destiny with just a TEN win rather than needing both JAX and TEN to lose in that scenario, but JAX can just barely catch them in strength of victory. I also ended up with a flat out coin flip for the AFC West in a couple of scenarios between KC and Denver.

BAL doesn't control their own destiny as they could lose a 3 way tie with JAC and BUF where BUF wins it on SOV and JAC then takes the 6 seed on h2h

Custom League - Playoff Predictors

And this one was a doozy but BUF win + MIA win isn't sufficient for MIA to win the SOV tiebreaker over IND. Ignoring ties it is sufficient to clinch a SOV tie which would then revert to common games for Miami. However if you also bring Baltimore into the SOV tie and let IND win SOS then IND can scrape by that way. It's very difficult to do to let BAL get to the same SOV and IND ahead of both BAL and MIA on SOS without disrupting the SOV tie which at that point uses just about every NFL team in it. But it is possible

This would presumably add a myriad of SOV or SOS clinching scenarios. But one without SOV would be adding a BAL win on the end of it. That would put Baltimore in a position where in a 7-9 tie they would have a 5-7 conference record and would be unable to force the SOV scenario, and nobody else could do it either so MIA would then for sure be ahead of common games directly.

NFL Playoff Predictor - Playoff Predictors

Everything else looks correct. I also came across that KC/DEN "coin flip" a few times. The next tiebreaker isn't actually a coin flip but a tiebreaker involving points, which since in theory points are mostly unlimited you should always assume anyone can win it sorta like a coin flip so I think that's why they use that terminology.

edit: had a section in here about the lack of a DEN loss + LAC win + SOV clinch, but realized the SOV clinch in a DEN loss covers elimination regardless of the LAC result so it would have been redundant.

 

[misterchainsaw]

BAL doesn't control their own destiny as they could lose a 3 way tie with JAC and BUF where BUF wins it on SOV and JAC then takes the 6 seed on h2h

Custom League - Playoff Predictors

And this one was a doozy but BUF win + MIA win isn't sufficient for MIA to win the SOV tiebreaker over IND. Ignoring ties it is sufficient to clinch a SOV tie which would then revert to common games for Miami. However if you also bring Baltimore into the SOV tie and let IND win SOS then IND can scrape by that way. It's very difficult to do to let BAL get to the same SOV and IND ahead of both BAL and MIA on SOS without disrupting the SOV tie which at that point uses just about every NFL team in it. But it is possible

This would presumably add a myriad of SOV or SOS clinching scenarios. But one without SOV would be adding a BAL win on the end of it. That would put Baltimore in a position where in a 7-9 tie they would have a 5-7 conference record and would be unable to force the SOV scenario, and nobody else could do it either so MIA would then for sure be ahead of common games directly.

NFL Playoff Predictor - Playoff Predictors

Everything else looks correct. I also came across that KC/DEN "coin flip" a few times. The next tiebreaker isn't actually a coin flip but a tiebreaker involving points, which since in theory points are mostly unlimited you should always assume anyone can win it sorta like a coin flip so I think that's why they use that terminology.

edit: had a section in here about the lack of a DEN loss + LAC win + SOV clinch, but realized the SOV clinch in a DEN loss covers elimination regardless of the LAC result so it would have been redundant.

Doh on the Baltimore one, I think I had that right last week and then just coasted past it (“oh yeah of course the current #6 has their own destiny” ). Lot of ways to gain it for them this week though. If PIT and NE loses, one of them would be behind BAL at 11-5 (unless NE beats BUF later, in which case 11-5 will make it regardless), if TEN and JAX loses one of them will have to have 6 losses, and if BUF loses obviously 11-5 will do it.

I had the extra BAL loss in the IND scenario for a bit, but Thats covered by BUF and MIA wins eliminating IND barring ties.. I can get to the 3 way tie in strength of victory between IND, BAL, and MIA, I just couldn’t get IND past MIA in strength of schedule. I did finally do it this morning though, so I just through in the BAL win in with all the strength of victory clinchers in that scenario.

 

[What the Faulk]

Somehow my preseason bitcoin bets of the Chargers/Titans winning their respective divisions are still in play (the only two I made).

 

[Big Poppa Puck]

Just ran through the playoff machine and this is what I got

#1 NE (14-2), #2 PIT (13-3)

#3 KC (11-5) vs. #6 BAL (9-7)
#4 TEN (10-6) vs. #5 JAX (10-6)

9-7 Chargers lose tiebreaker to Ravens. Bills go 8-8.

AFC Tiebreakers

• 4th Seed - Tennessee
  AFC South Champ (Wins tie break over Jacksonville based on head-to-head win percentage.)
• 6th Seed - Baltimore
  Wins tie break over Los Angeles based on best win percentage in conference games.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Minor SOV/SOS scenario tweaks to the OP. TEN tie like NYJ tie wasn't sufficient to clinch MIA SOV, and then a bunch of scenarios preventing 3 way SOV tie that IND wins on SOS were added which is why things like OAK, CIN and especially TB(MIA SOS/GB for BAL SOV), and SEA(IND SOS) are included in those scenarios. As well as 1 minor tweak to the DEN division 2nd SOV scenario. If all 1.5 results necessary for KC SOV tie clinch come from HOU/JAC then a PIT tie would be sufficient to clinch SOS and eliminate DEN. Shoutout to NFLPlayoffScenarios and EmptySet2 on reddit for coming up/helping confirm/correcting these toughest scenarios

 

[PlayoffPredictors]

Everything else looks correct. I also came across that KC/DEN "coin flip" a few times. The next tiebreaker isn't actually a coin flip but a tiebreaker involving points, which since in theory points are mostly unlimited you should always assume anyone can win it sorta like a coin flip so I think that's why they use that terminology.

It's because we don't track scores, so we're unable to break ties based on points. The next non point tiebreaker we can run is coin flip. Your explanation is also a fair enough reason for falling to that method.

 

[misterchainsaw]

ENTERING WEEK 14: (Again, everything is barring ties)

Teams already eliminated: Cleveland, Denver


Controls own destiny for #1 seed: Pittsburgh, New England
- Regardless of results, these two teams and only these two teams will control their own destiny for the #1 seed entering week 15.

Teams eliminated from #1 seed contention: NY Jets, Miami, Houston, Indianapolis, Los Angeles, Kansas City, Buffalo, Oakland, Cincinnati
- Baltimore is eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss
- Tennessee is eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss and a NE win.
- Jacksonville is eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss, PIT win, and NE win.


Controls own destiny for 1st round bye: Pittsburgh, New England
- Jacksonville gains control of their own destiny with a win, NE loss, and PIT loss

Teams eliminated from 1st round bye contention: Indianapolis, Denver, New York Jets, Miami, Houston, Cincinnati
- Oakland will be eliminated from 1st round bye contention with a loss or a NE+PIT win
- Los Angeles will be eliminated from 1st round bye contention with a loss or PIT win
- Los Angeles will be eliminated from 1st round bye contention with a NE win and a total of 4 points must be accumulated in the following games (points in () ): IND win(2), OAK win(2), CIN win(2), GB win(1), TEN win(1), DET win(1), MIN win(1).
- Buffalo will be eliminated from 1st round bye contention with a loss or NE win.
- Baltimore will be eliminated from 1st round bye contention with a loss.
- Kansas City will be eliminated from 1st round bye contention with a loss or NE win


Has clinched division: None
- New England clinches AFC East with a win or a BUF loss
- Pittsburgh clinches AFC North with a win
Controls own destiny for division: New England, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Kansas City, Oakland, Los Angeles
- The loser of Kansas City and Oakland will no longer control their own destiny for the AFC West.
- Los Angeles will lose control of their own destiny with a loss and a KC win.
Has been eliminated from divisional contention: Indianapolis, Houston, Miami, New York, Cincinnati
- Buffalo is eliminated from divisional contention with a loss or a NE win.
- Baltimore is eliminated from divisional contention with a loss.


Has clinched a wild card spot: None
Controls own destiny for a wild card: New England, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Baltimore
- Kansas City, Oakland, and Los Angeles control their own destiny for the playoffs solely through their division.
- Baltimore will lose control of their own destiny with a loss, BUF win, and JAX win.
Clinching Scenarios:
- Jacksonville clinches a wild card spot with a win, BUF loss, MIA loss, and NYJ loss
Elimination Scenarios
- Indianapolis is eliminated with a loss. BAL win, or MIA win.
- Houston is eliminated with a loss and a BAL, BUF, or MIA win.
- Cincinnati is eliminated with a loss, BAL win, and if Baltimore clinches strength of victory over Cincinnati.
Given above results, BAL clinches strength of victory over CIN with a GB win and 4 of the following 5 results: DEN loss, OAK win, MIA win, HOU win, MIN loss.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Here's what I have for the AFC so far.

IND eliminated with...
IND loss/tie
BAL win/tie
CIN win
MIA win

DEN eliminated with...
DEN loss/tie
BAL win/tie
CIN win
LAC win
LAC tie + OAK win/tie
HOU loss/tie

HOU eliminated with...
HOU tie + BAL win
HOU tie + MIA win + BUF win
HOU loss + BAL win/tie
HOU loss + MIA win + BUF win/tie
HOU loss + MIA tie + BUF win
HOU loss + MIA win + LAC win + OAK win
HOU loss + BUF win + LAC win + OAK tie

NE clinches with...
NE win/tie
BUF loss/tie

PIT clinches with
PIT win/tie
BUF loss/tie

JAC clinches with...
JAC win + BUF loss + NYJ loss/tie + MIA loss/tie + LAC loss/tie + OAK win
JAC win + BUF loss + NYJ loss/tie + MIA loss/tie + LAC loss/tie + KC win

Both NE scenarios are a division clinch, they cannot clinch the playoffs without clinching the division. 1st PIT scenario is a division clinch, 2nd scenario is a playoff clinch.

Houston was by far the most fun scenario here. They managed to stay alive, or are already eliminated in all SOV ties here I think so there were no funny business with SOV scenarios, but a fair chunk of moving teams in and out to try to disrupt tiebreakers. Including lacking an elimination scenario with a HOU win only because we can potentially bring JAC back, and giving JAC a tie next week to prevent that just barely kept HOU in 1 SOV scenario by that 1 tie JAC had to get.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Scenarios in OP updated with the correct ones. I was missing 1 in the IND scenarios, a whole bundle for DEN(seems I was ignoring the East for no reason there), a couple in the HOU scenarios, and I left out the CIN scenarios here for some strange reason, but I had something missing in those as well.

I did the BAL/CIN SOV scenarios and here's what I have, but I'm usually incorrect on SOV so I'll keep them out of the OP. Still missing the HOU ones

CIN loss + BAL win + JAC win/tie + GB win + BUF win + 2.5 wins or more from (NYJ, CAR, OAK, MIA)
CIN loss + BAL win + JAC win/tie + 1.5 wins from (GB, BUF) + 3.5 wins or more from (NYJ, CAR, OAK, MIA)
CIN loss + BAL win + HOU win + GB win + BUF win + 1.5 wins or more from (NYJ, CAR, OAK, MIA)
CIN loss + BAL win + HOU win + 1.5 wins from (GB, BUF) + 2.5 wins or more from (NYJ, CAR, OAK, MIA)
CIN loss + BAL win + HOU win + 1 win from (GB, BUF) + 3.5 wins or more from (NYJ, CAR, OAK, MIA)
CIN loss + BAL win + HOU tie + GB win + BUF win + 2 wins or more from (NYJ, CAR, OAK, MIA)
CIN loss + BAL win + HOU tie + 1.5 wins from (GB, BUF) + 3 wins or more from (NYJ, CAR, OAK, MIA)
CIN loss + BAL win + HOU tie + 1 win from (GB, BUF) + NYJ win + CAR win + OAK win + MIA win
CIN loss + BAL win + GB win + BUF win + 2.5 wins or more from (NYJ, CAR, OAK, MIA) + HOU SOV clinch over CIN
CIN loss + BAL win + 1.5 wins from (GB, BUF) + 3.5 wins or more from (NYJ, CAR, OAK, MIA) + HOU SOV clinch over CIN

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

NFL playoff-clinching scenarios for Week 14

AFC
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (10-2) (at Miami, Monday night)
New England clinches AFC East division with:
1. NE win or tie OR
2. BUF loss or tie

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (10-2) (vs. Baltimore, Sunday night)
Pittsburgh clinches AFC North division with:
1. PIT win or tie
Pittsburgh clinches a playoff berth with:
1. BUF loss or tie

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (8-4) (vs. Seattle, Sunday)
Jacksonville clinches a playoff berth with:
1. JAX win + BUF loss + MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + LAC loss or tie + OAK-KC game does not end in a tie

 

[justafan22]

For me, I'll predict
pats, steelers, Jags, chiefs, chargers and ravens for the 6 playoff teams.

 

[What the Faulk]

I'm definitely not seeing a playoffs with two AFC West teams and just one AFC South team.

 

[Falco Lombardi]

I'm definitely not seeing a playoffs with two AFC West teams and just one AFC South team.

After today, it’s certainly more feasible with the Chargers and Chiefs winning and the Titans losing.

Depending on the tie breakers work out, I could see all three of the Titans, Chiefs, and Chargers all at 9-7

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

The issue with that scenario is the conference record:

Titans are 7-4
Chargers are 4-5
Chiefs are 5-4

Since the Chiefs and Chargers face each other on Saturday, that means 1 more loss for 1 of them (barring a tie)...

 

[Canada4Gold]

Yeah if the Chargers and Chiefs tie at 9-7 the Chiefs have the tiebreaker(either on h2h of conf record). Titans would then have conf record over the Chargers. You pretty much would need the Chargers to win out or the Titans to lose out.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

From what I can gather, that scenario would have to be:

LAC wins out and grabs AFC West at 10-6
BAL grabs 1st WC at 10-6. KC grabs 2nd WC at 9-7 over 9-7 TEN due to common games record. In this scenario, TEN beats SF and LAR, loses to JAX.

This assumes BUF is 8-8.

 

[Shockmaster]

Steelers clinch the AFC North.