NFL: AFC Playoff Picture

[misterchainsaw]

Yeah if the Chargers and Chiefs tie at 9-7 the Chiefs have the tiebreaker(either on h2h of conf record). Titans would then have conf record over the Chargers. You pretty much would need the Chargers to win out or the Titans to lose out.

You can get Oakland to 9-7 too, but KC still wins the division and the Raiders don't do any better on tiebreakers than the Chargers do.

From what I can gather, that scenario would have to be:

LAC wins out and grabs AFC West at 10-6
BAL grabs 1st WC at 10-6. KC grabs 2nd WC at 9-7 over 9-7 TEN due to common games record. In this scenario, TEN beats SF and LAR, loses to JAX.

This assumes BUF is 8-8.

If it ends up being the Chiefs at 9-7 in the wild card, their strength of victory is killer. If it's a multi-team tiebreaker, and Buffalo and Kansas City are involved, KC wins most of them (unless Jacksonville completely falls apart and drops to 9-7, then they'd win on conference record).

 

[rangerssharks414]

1. PIT 11-2, clinched AFC North
2. NE 10-3
3. JAX 9-4
4. KC 7-6, wins H2H with LAC
5. TEN 8-5
6. BUF 7-6, wins SOV tiebreaker over BAL
------------------------------------------------------------------
7. BAL 7-6, wins AFC record tiebreaker with LAC
8. LAC 7-6
9. OAK 6-7, wins H2H with MIA
10. MIA 6-7
11. NYJ 5-8, wins AFC record tiebreaker with CIN
12. CIN 5-8
13. HOU 4-9
------------------------------------------------------------------
14. DEN 4-9
15. IND 3-10
16. CLE 0-13


Games featuring AFC teams that are mathematically still alive:

LAC @ KC
MIA @ BUF
BAL @ CLE
HOU @ JAX
CIN @ MIN
NYJ @ NO
NE @ PIT
TEN @ SF
DAL @ OAK

LAC/KC winner is the AFC West leader
JAX clinches a playoff spot with a win
PIT clinches a bye with a win
PIT clinches #1 overall seed with a win and a JAX loss
NE clinches AFC East with a win or a tie

Too lazy to figure everything else out... those are the obvious ones, haha.

 

[Blitzkrug]

Miami has two games against the Bills coming up too. Could loom stupid large for the second wild card spot. Given how one will likey cannibalize the other for wins, 8 is probably the magic number for any of those hopefuls.

Likely scenario is the Dolphins and Bills kill each other, going 7-9 and 8-8 respectively, allowing Baltimore with the laughably easy remaining games to cruise right on into that spot.

Tiebreakers say otherwise, but that spot is Baltimore's to lose.

Dolphins and Ravens at 9-7 = Ravens clinch because of having the H2H tiebreaker
Dolphins at 9-7 + Ravens at 8-8 = Dolphins clinch by virtue of a better record
Dolphins and Ravens at 8-8 = Dolphins clinch by virtue of...something. Could also be a Bills clinch if they found a way to beat the Patriots (since this assumes Miami and them split)
Dolphins at 9-7 + Tennessee falling to 9-7 = Dolphins clinch by virtue of H2H tiebreaker

This doesn't even account for the Raiders potentially being in the mix too.

Oakland at 9-7 + Miami at 9-7 = Oakland wins AFC West, Miami clinches second wild card

Oakland at 8-8 + Miami at 8-8 + Baltimore at 8-8 + Buffalo at 8-8 = Miami in

Seems like about it. Any scenario where Miami and Oakland finish 9-7 means Kansas City is screwed since they play and lose to Miami in that situation.

 

[misterchainsaw]

ENTERING WEEK 15: (Everything barring ties as usual)

x- 1. Pittsburgh 11-2 -
2. New England 10-3
3. Jacksonville 9-4
4. Kansas City 7-6 (Leads H2H tiebreaker with Los Angeles for AFC West lead)
5. Tennessee 8-5
6. Buffalo 7-6 (Leads strength of victory tiebreaker with Baltimore)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7. Baltimore 7-6 (Wins conference record tiebreaker with Los Angeles)
8. Los Angeles 7-6
9. Oakland 6-7 (Wins H2H tiebreaker with Miami)
10. Miami 6-7
11. New York Jets 5-8 (Leads conference record tiebreaker with Cincinnati)
12. Cincinnati 5-8

Teams already eliminated: Cleveland, Denver, Houston, Indianapolis


Controls own destiny for #1 seed: Pittsburgh, New England
- The loser of the NE/PIT game will lose control of their own destiny for the #1 seed.
Clinching Scenarios:
- Pittsburgh clinches the #1 seed with a win and a JAX loss.
Teams eliminated from #1 seed contention: NY Jets, Miami, Los Angeles, Kansas City, Buffalo, Oakland, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Tennessee (*eliminated by a SOV scenario last week)
- Jacksonville is eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss and a PIT win


Controls own destiny for 1st round bye: Pittsburgh, New England
- New England loses control of their own destiny for a first round bye with a loss and a JAX win
- Jacksonville gains control of their own destiny for a first round bye with a win and NE loss
Clinching Scenarios:
- Pittsburgh clinches at least a first round bye with a win.
Teams eliminated from 1st round bye contention: New York Jets, Miami, Cincinnati, Oakland, Baltimore
- Los Angeles will be eliminated from 1st round bye contention with a loss, BUF loss, JAX win, TEN win, or NE win
- Buffalo will be eliminated from 1st round bye contention with a loss.
- Kansas City will be eliminated from 1st round bye contention with a loss or NE win
- Tennessee will be eliminated from 1st round bye contention with a NE win


Has clinched division: Pittsburgh
- New England clinches AFC East with a win or a BUF loss
Controls own destiny for division: New England, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Kansas City, Los Angeles
- Tennessee can lose control of their own destiny for the AFC South with a loss and a JAX win.
- The loser of KC/LAC will no longer control their own destiny for the AFC West.
Has been eliminated from divisional contention: Miami, New York, Cincinnati, Baltimore
- Buffalo is eliminated from divisional contention with a loss or a NE win.
- Oakland is eliminated from divisional contention with a loss and a KC win.


Has clinched a wild card spot: None
Controls own destiny for a wild card: New England, Jacksonville, Tennessee
- Tennessee loses control of their own destiny for at least a wild card with a loss, BUF win, JAX win, and BAL win.
- Baltimore gains control of their own destiny for a wild card with a win combined with either a JAX or BUF loss.
- Buffalo gains control of their own destiny for a wild card with a win combined with either a TEN or BAL loss.
- Kansas City and Los Angeles control their own destiny for the playoffs solely through their division, both lose control with a loss.
Clinching Scenarios:
- Jacksonville clinches a wild card spot with a win or a BAL loss
Elimination Scenarios
- Cincinnati is eliminated with a loss OR a LAC win, OAK win, and either (1)BAL win or (2)DET loss + NYJ win.
- New York is eliminated with a loss
- Oakland is eliminated with a loss, BAL win, KC win and a CIN loss

 

[misterchainsaw]

Miami has two games against the Bills coming up too. Could loom stupid large for the second wild card spot. Given how one will likey cannibalize the other for wins, 8 is probably the magic number for any of those hopefuls.

Likely scenario is the Dolphins and Bills kill each other, going 7-9 and 8-8 respectively, allowing Baltimore with the laughably easy remaining games to cruise right on into that spot.

Tiebreakers say otherwise, but that spot is Baltimore's to lose.

Dolphins and Ravens at 9-7 = Ravens clinch because of having the H2H tiebreaker
Dolphins at 9-7 + Ravens at 8-8 = Dolphins clinch by virtue of a better record
Dolphins and Ravens at 8-8 = Dolphins clinch by virtue of...something. Could also be a Bills clinch if they found a way to beat the Patriots (since this assumes Miami and them split)
Dolphins at 9-7 + Tennessee falling to 9-7 = Dolphins clinch by virtue of H2H tiebreaker

I wouldn't count on getting ahead of Baltimore as a Miami fan. One loss to Indy or Cincinnati I could see. Losing to both (or to Cleveland?) I don't see as very likely.

This doesn't even account for the Raiders potentially being in the mix too.

Oakland at 9-7 + Miami at 9-7 = Oakland wins AFC West, Miami clinches second wild card

Oakland at 8-8 + Miami at 8-8 + Baltimore at 8-8 + Buffalo at 8-8 = Miami in

Seems like about it. Any scenario where Miami and Oakland finish 9-7 means Kansas City is screwed since they play and lose to Miami in that situation.

Kansas City can still win the AFC West at 9-7 over Oakland's 9-7, which could leave a 9-7 Miami in some trouble even if Tennessee falls:
NFL Playoff Predictor - Playoff Predictors (Baltimore falling to 9-7 to join the tiebreaker does allow Miami to win that tiebreaker though).


Personally, I think it's pretty much down to what Tennessee does if Buffalo or Miami can get to 9-7. They will be underdogs against Los Angeles and Jacksonville despite being at home, IMO, and San Francisco is suddenly a frisky home dog.

And while Baltimore doesn't currently control their own destiny and are in the 7th spot, there is actually only a couple of sets of results for BUF, TEN, and JAX that results in Baltimore not making the playoffs at 10-6. Buffalo would have to win out, Tennessee would have to split to the NFC teams and beat the Jags, and Jacksonville would have to lose to Houston and Tennessee while beating San Fran.

The reason for this is that while Buffalo beats Baltimore at the moment in their tiebreaker, that's only because Baltimore hasn't played all of their common opponents yet. If both teams win out, Baltimore would win a common opponents tiebreaker (5-0 vs 4-1 against MIA, CIN, IND, and OAK). These are also common opponents for Tennessee, who went 3-2 against them. So any tiebreaker at 10-6 involving BUF/TEN/BAL results in Baltimore as the 5 seed and Buffalo as the 6 seed. The results I mentioned above would mean Tennessee wins the AFC South putting Jacksonville into the tiebreaker, but if they beat Houston and lose to SF+TEN they would have a superior conference record, and then Baltimore would win the subsequent tiebreaker with Buffalo via common opponents. But if JAX lost to HOU+TEN and beat SF, then the 3-way tiebreaker would have all conference records the same, no common opponents, and the Bills would currently win the tiebreaker on strength of victory. Jacksonville would then knock Baltimore out via a head to head win.

Anyway, found that a really interesting scenario. The good thing for the Bills is that at if Baltimore loses to either IND or CIN (but not CLE), they lose the advantage in the common opponents tiebreaker and any BAL/BUF tiebreaker would then go to strength of victory right away. I still think Tennessee is the more likely team to drop out though.

 

[rangerssharks414]

I believe that Houston is still mathematically alive. Denver isn’t even though they have the same record as Houston.

 

[What the Faulk]

I believe that Houston is still mathematically alive. Denver isn’t even though they have the same record as Houston.

I don't believe they are? All of the official places have them as eliminated and I can't seem to get them in. The best they can do is 7-9 and with Miami and the Bills both playing each other twice still (for some reason), one of them is going to get to 8 wins. The Titans and Jags are both already at 8 wins. I can't get them higher than 9th.

Speaking of Miami, their path to the playoffs is surprisingly not that difficult.

Win out (BUFx2, @KC)
BAL lose one (@CLE, IND, CIN)
TEN lose two (@sf, LAR, JAX)

Might be some other minor results needed in there, but that's a quick path that I found. They win the 9-7 three-way tie with the Ravens and Titans. They're actually the 5th seed here. If the Ravens lose two, Miami can make it as the 6th seed if the Raiders drop one game (DAL, @PHI, @LAC).

EDIT: Long story short, I think: pass the Ravens on wins or use the Titans or Chargers in a 3-team tiebreaker but be careful not to go heads up with the Raiders at 9-7. I don't think 8 wins will be good enough in the AFC.

 

[PanthersPens62]

I don't believe they are? All of the official places have them as eliminated and I can't seem to get them in. The best they can do is 7-9 and with Miami and the Bills both playing each other twice still (for some reason), one of them is going to get to 8 wins. The Titans and Jags are both already at 8 wins. I can't get them higher than 9th.

Speaking of Miami, their path to the playoffs is surprisingly not that difficult.

Win out (BUFx2, @KC)
BAL lose one (@CLE, IND, CIN)
TEN lose two (@sf, LAR, JAX)

Might be some other minor results needed in there, but that's a quick path that I found. They win the 9-7 three-way tie with the Ravens and Titans. They're actually the 5th seed here. If the Ravens lose two, Miami can make it as the 6th seed if the Raiders drop one game (DAL, @PHI, @LAC).

EDIT: Long story short, I think: pass the Ravens on wins or use the Titans or Chargers in a 3-team tiebreaker but be careful not to go heads up with the Raiders at 9-7. I don't think 8 wins will be good enough in the AFC.

Problem I see for Miami in the above scenario is that I just don't see the Ravens losing another game. Bigger problem though, is I don't see Miami winning in KC.

 

[rangerssharks414]

@What the Faulk You're right. I saw somewhere that they were still alive, but they aren't.

 

[Blitzkrug]

Miami winning in KC isn't completely unrealistic. I wouldn't say it's super likely, but we've seen weirder.

The Titans being the Rams and Jags (who are both still jockeying for playoff positioning) with a gimpy Mariota however, seems a bit more plausible.

All of this is for naught because we all damn well know (Dolphins fans or otherwise) they're going to split with the Bills and finish at 8-8. They'll find a way to win the first one, beat KC and then inexplicable implode in the season finale.

 

[What the Faulk]

If Miami finds a way to win out, I think the rest will shake out in their favor. The hardest part for them is going to be winning in Buffalo and KC in back to back weeks.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Official week 15 scenarios:

NFL Week 15 playoff-clinching scenarios

AFC

Pittsburgh Steelers
Pitssburgh clinches homefield advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
1. PIT win + JAX loss or tie
Pittsburgh clinches first-round bye:
1. PIT win
2. PIT tie + JAX loss

New England Patriots
New England clinches AFC East Division:
1. NE win or tie
2. BUF loss or tie
New England clinches a playoff berth:
1. BAL loss or tie

Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville clinches a playoff berth:
1. JAX win
2. JAX tie +BUF loss or tie
3. JAX tie + BAL loss or tie
4. BUF loss + BAL loss
5. BAL loss + KC-LAC game does not end in a tie

 

[justafan22]

If pittsburgh clinches this week home field do they rest their players week 16? Would essentially be 28 days between important games

 

[Canada4Gold]

Extremely simple scenarios this week. The 1 week I didn't bother doing them too, oh well. Here are the elimination scenarios in addition to the clinching ones Marc posted. They're all updated in the OP

New York Jets
New York is eliminated from the playoffs with:
1. NYJ loss/tie

Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is eliminated from the playoffs with:
1. CIN loss/tie

Oakland Raiders
Oakland is eliminated from the playoffs with:
1. OAK loss + KC win + TEN win/tie + BAL win + CIN loss/tie

 

[member 51464]

Is there any reason to think the Steelers could make it to the Super Bowl and beat New England along the way? It just feels like we've seen all this before.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

If the ESPN playoff machine is to be believed, a Bills-Ravens-Titans 3-way tie at 10-6 (with Jags winning division at 11-5) means the Ravens and Bills go to the playoffs as WC's. BAL has the common games tie-breaker to clinch 1st WC and Bills would have the same tie-breaker over TEN to clinch the 2nd.

Of course, the odds of that happening are slim. Bills won't beat the Pats in NE with everything on the line for NE in terms of the number 1 seed. Titans probably lose at least 1 more.

So it comes down, most likely, to a battle of 9-7's. And that opens the door for OAK and LAC and I am not even going to attempt to figure those scenarios out.

 

[Voight]

Happy for Sacksonville, their fans deserve it after a decade of failure.

 

[Canada4Gold]

If the ESPN playoff machine is to be believed, a Bills-Ravens-Titans 3-way tie at 10-6 (with Jags winning division at 11-5) means the Ravens and Bills go to the playoffs as WC's. BAL has the common games tie-breaker to clinch 1st WC and Bills would have the same tie-breaker over TEN to clinch the 2nd.

Of course, the odds of that happening are slim. Bills won't beat the Pats in NE with everything on the line for NE in terms of the number 1 seed. Titans probably lose at least 1 more.

So it comes down, most likely, to a battle of 9-7's. And that opens the door for OAK and LAC and I am not even going to attempt to figure those scenarios out.

Chargers and Raiders would both have a 6-6 conf record at 9-7, and thus the only way they could win any tiebreakers against BAL/BUF/TEN is h2h(or 3 way ties which result in 1 team getting the 5 seed, and the other 2 reverting to a h2h they would win). OAK lost to BAL, and BUF and beat TEN. LAC beat BUF. So the only way OAK wins a tiebreaker at 9-7 is 2 way breaker with TEN, the only way the Chargers win one is 2 way tie with BUF, which could be fairly likely with the tough TEN schedule(LAR, JAX), the easy BAL schedule(IND, CIN), and BUF probably losing to NE.

I wouldn't completely rule out Miami yet either. It's extremely unlikely, but with the tough TEN schedule, and BUF facing NE next week, and Miami having a quality conf record their week 17 game against BUF could be for the last playoff spot if they could get past the Chiefs next week.

One big issue for Miami is the Raiders wins over Miami and Tennessee. Chargers likely beat the Jets so would need the Raiders to beat LAC in week 17 to keep LAC at 8-8. That brings OAK to 7, and 1 win tonight or next week makes it essentially impossible for Miami to get past them.

 

[Canada4Gold]

OP updated with tentative scenarios for next week, only ran through them once with conditional scenarios with tonight's result so things could be off

Entering Week 16:

1. y - NE 11-3
2. y - PIT 11-3
3. y - JAC 10-4
4. KC 8-6
-------------
5. TEN 8-6
6. BUF 8-6
-------------
7. BAL 8-6
8. LAC 7-7
9. OAK 6-8
10. MIA 6-8
-------------
11. NYJ 5-9
12. CIN 5-9
13. DEN 5-9
14. HOU 4-10
15. IND 3-11
16. CLE 0-14

x - clinched playoff spot
y - clinched division
z - clinched bye
h - clinched home field advantage through AFC Championship game

Tentitive Week 16 Scenarios

New England Patriots
NE clinch home field with...
- NE win + PIT loss + JAC loss/tie

NE clinch bye with...
- NE win + PIT loss
- NE win + JAC loss/tie
- NE tie + JAC loss

Pittsburgh Steelers
PIT clinch bye with...
- PIT win + JAC loss/tie
- PIT tie + JAC loss

Jacksonville Jaguars
JAC clinch division with...
- JAC win/tie
- TEN loss/tie

Kansas City Chiefs
KC clinch division with...
- KC win
- KC tie + LAC tie
- LAC loss

Tennessee Titans
TEN clinch playoffs with...
- TEN win + BAL loss + BUF loss

Oakland Raiders
OAK eliminated with...
- OAK loss/tie
- MIA loss/tie
- TEN win/tie
- BUF win/tie

Miami Dolphins
MIA eliminated with...
- MIA loss/tie
- BAL win/tie + BUF win/tie
- BAL win/tie + TEN win/tie
- BUF win/tie + TEN win/tie

Los Angeles Chargers
LAC eliminated with...
- LAC loss
- LAC tie + BAL win/tie + TEN win/tie + KC win/tie
- LAC tie + BAL win/tie + BUF win + KC win/tie
- LAC tie + TEN win/tie + BUF win + KC win/tie
- BAL win + TEN win + KC win

 

[Blitzkrug]

To put it simply; Miami needs to win out and for every team in front of them sans the Chargers to lose out

No easy games for any of those teams too;

- Titans get a Jags team still in the mix for a first round bye, and a Rams team still trying to lock up their own playoff spot.

- Buffalo gets the Patriots and the Dolphins

- Raiders get an Eagles time still in the mix for home field throughout the NFC playoffs and the Chargers, who will likely still be in the picture for the AFC West

Miami still has a shot. Oakland is probably in the best spot since they can just leapfrog both the Titans and Dolphins.

 

[misterchainsaw]

ENTERING WEEK 16: (Everything barring ties as usual. x-clinched playoffs, y-clinched division, Y-clinched first round bye, z-clinched #1 seed)

y-1. New England 11-3 (Wins H2H tiebreaker with Pittsburgh for #1 seed.
y-2. Pittsburgh 11-3
x-3. Jacksonville 10-4
4. Kansas City 8-6
5. Tennessee 8-6 (Leads conference record tiebreaker with Buffalo and Baltimore)
6. Buffalo 8-6 (Wins strength of victory tiebreaker with Baltimore)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7. Baltimore 8-6
8. Los Angeles 7-7
9. Oakland 6-8 (Wins H2H tiebreaker with Miami)
10. Miami 6-8




Clinching Scenarios for #1 seed:
- New England clinches the #1 seed with a win, PIT loss, and JAX loss.
Controls own destiny for #1 seed: New England
- New England will lose control of their own destiny for the #1 seed with a loss and a PIT or JAX win.
- Pittsburgh will gain control of their own destiny for the #1 seed with a win, NE loss, and JAX loss.
- Jacksonville will gain control of their own destiny for the #1 seed with a win and NE loss.
Teams eliminated from #1 seed contention: Miami, Los Angeles, Kansas City, Buffalo, Oakland, Baltimore, Tennessee
- Jacksonville is eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss and a NE or PIT win.
- Pittsburgh is eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss and a NE win.


First round bye clinching Scenarios:
- New England clinches at least a first round bye with a win and a JAX or PIT loss
- Pittsburgh clinches at least a first round bye with a win and a JAX loss
Controls own destiny for 1st round bye: Pittsburgh, New England
- New England loses control of their own destiny for a first round bye with a loss, PIT win, and JAX win.
- Pittsburgh loses control of their own destiny for a first round bye with a loss and a JAX win.
- Jacksonville gains control of their own destiny for a first round bye with a win and a NE or PIT loss
Teams eliminated from 1st round bye contention: Miami, Oakland, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Buffalo, Kansas City, Tennessee
- Jacksonville is eliminated from first round bye contention with a loss, NE win, and PIT win.


Has clinched division: Pittsburgh, New England
Clinching Scenarios:
- Jacksonville clinches AFC South with a win or a TEN loss
- Kansas City clinches AFC West with a win or a LAC loss.
Controls own destiny for division: Jacksonville, Kansas City
- Tennessee can gain control of their own destiny for the AFC South with a win and a JAX loss.
Has been eliminated from divisional contention: Miami, Baltimore, Oakland, Buffalo
- Los Angeles is eliminated from AFC West contention with a loss or a KC win.
- Tennessee is eliminated from AFC South contention with a loss or a JAX win.


Has clinched a wild card spot: Jacksonville
Controls own destiny for a wild card: Baltimore
- Baltimore will lose control of their own destiny with a loss
- Buffalo will gain control of their own destiny with a win combined with a JAX win, TEN loss, or BAL loss.
- Buffalo will also gain control of their own destiny with a BAL and LAC loss.
- Tennessee will gain control of their own destiny with a win and a BUF or BAL loss.
Clinching Scenarios:
- Tennessee clinches a playoff spot with a win and a BAL and BUF loss.
Elimination Scenarios
- Oakland is eliminated with a loss, TEN win, BUF win or MIA loss.
- Miami is eliminated with a loss, BUF+BAL win, BUF+TEN win or BAL+TEN win
- Los Angeles is eliminated with a loss or a TEN+BAL+KC win. (Eliminated from wild card contention with just the TEN+BAL wins, but still would be alive in the division)

 

[Canada4Gold]

To put it simply; Miami needs to win out and for every team in front of them sans the Chargers to lose out

No easy games for any of those teams too;

- Titans get a Jags team still in the mix for a first round bye, and a Rams team still trying to lock up their own playoff spot.

- Buffalo gets the Patriots and the Dolphins

- Raiders get an Eagles time still in the mix for home field throughout the NFC playoffs and the Chargers, who will likely still be in the picture for the AFC West

Miami still has a shot. Oakland is probably in the best spot since they can just leapfrog both the Titans and Dolphins.

Miami doesn't need every team to lose, they can let 1 8-6 team go. They can let Baltimore go(luckily since it's the team that has the easy schedule), or Buffalo without any real repercussions. If the Titans went ahead that would force them to have to use the Chargers to block the Ravens h2h. It gets dicey if the Chargers and Raiders both won this week because that then forces LAC to 9-7 or OAK and their h2h over MIA and TEN to 8-8. BAL also has the h2h over OAK and MIA if the Titans went ahead and the Raiders caught up so that puts TEN going ahead and LAC/OAK winning out the window too.

I wouldn't really say Oakland is in a better situation than Miami either. They both need Miami to get to 8-8. Miami obviously to make it themselves, Oakland to have Miami block TEN. The rest of Oakland's requirements are much more restrictive, no TEN wins, no BUF wins, need a BAL win, and they would also have to get to 8-8 something the Dolphins need to avoid in most cases but I'd say it's not exactly likely that OAK wins their last 2, they're probably underdogs in both. That being said with all Oakland needs, a lot of those results are either the favorites or not that outlandish. I like Miami's chances more though.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Here's some fun with tiebreakers: The Bills playoff chances actually go up if the Titans beat the Rams next week in Los Angeles. What's more, the effect of the bounce is amplified if you only take into account the Bills most likely way in: losing to Foxboro and winning in Miami to end the season to finish 9-7. There is a way they can be kept out at 10-6 if the Titans defeat the Rams, but for the Bills to finish ahead of the Titans at 9-7 they need them to lose to the Jags anyway, and they would still win all tiebreakers vs the Titans at 9-7 if the Titans beat the Rams. In fact, the Titans would be a positive buffer at 9-7 for the Bills in these cases, preventing them from losing a potential head to head tiebreaker against the Chargers.

 

[What the Faulk]

The Nathan Peterman game is going to cost the Bills a playoff spot. They might have still lost with Tyrod, but what an unbelievably stupid decision it was to bench your starting QB in the middle of a playoff run.

 

[Falco Lombardi]

In the unlikely event that both Pittsburgh and New England lose one of their last two games, can Jacksonville get to the top seed?