NFL: AFC Playoff Picture

[Canada4Gold]

Entering Week 17:

1. z - NE 12-3
2. z - PIT 12-3
3. y - JAC 10-5
4. y - KC 9-6
-------------
5. BAL 9-6
6. TEN 8-7
-------------
7. LAC 8-7
8. BUF 8-7
-------------
9. MIA 6-9
10. CIN 6-9
11. OAK 6-9
12. DEN 5-10
13. NYJ 5-10
14. HOU 4-11
15. IND 3-12
16. CLE 0-15

x - clinched playoff spot
y - clinched division
z - clinched bye
h - clinched home field advantage through AFC Championship game

Week 17 Scenarios

New England Patriots
NE is the 1 seed with...
- NE win
- NE tie + PIT tie
- PIT loss

NE is the 2 seed with...
- NE tie + PIT win
- NE loss + PIT win/tie

Pittsburgh Steelers
PIT is the 1 seed with...
- PIT win + NE loss/tie
- PIT tie + NE loss

PIT is the 2 seed with...
- NE win
- PIT tie + NE tie
- PIT loss

Jacksonville Jaguars
JAC is lock in as the 3 seed

Kansas City Chiefs
KC is locked in as the 4 seed

Baltimore Ravens
BAL clinches a playoff spot with...
- BAL win/tie
- BUF loss/tie
- TEN loss/tie

BAL is the 5 seed with...
- BAL win/tie
- TEN loss/tie + BUF loss/tie

BAL is the 6 seed with...
- BAL loss + TEN win + BUF loss/tie
- BAL loss + TEN loss/tie + BUF win

Tennessee Titans
TEN clinches a playoff spot with...
- TEN win
- TEN tie + BUF loss/tie + LAC loss/tie
- BUF loss + LAC loss

TEN is the 5 seed with..
- TEN win + BAL loss

TEN is the 6 seed with...
- TEN win + BAL win/tie
- TEN tie + BUF loss/tie + LAC loss/tie
- BUF loss + LAC loss

Buffalo Bills
BUF clinches a playoff spot with...
- BUF win + BAL loss
- BUF win + TEN loss/tie + LAC loss/tie
- BUF tie + TEN loss + LAC loss

BUF is the 5 seed with...
- BUF win + BAL loss + TEN loss/tie

BUF is the 6 seed with...
- BUF win + BAL loss + TEN win
- BUF win + TEN loss/tie + LAC loss/tie
- BUF tie + TEN loss + LAC loss

Los Angeles Chargers
LAC is the 6 seed with...
- LAC win + BUF loss/tie + TEN loss/tie
- LAC win + BAL win/tie + TEN loss/tie
- LAC tie + TEN loss + BUF loss

Click to read more...

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

My guess is the 6 teams in the playoffs now are the 6 teams standing at the end.

 

[lilphildub]

I think Oakland bounces back and takes Buffalo out. I think every other team is safe though

 

[dma0034]

I think Oakland bounces back and takes Buffalo out. I think every other team is safe though

It will be tough for them because Buffalo owns the tie breaker. They can really only lose one or two more games because the Bills do have some winnable games.

I actually think Oakland makes it via K.C losses. They're starting to look average imo

 

[Howe Elbows 9]

https://www.profootballfocus.com/ne...-for-all-32-teams-over-the-rest-of-the-season

AFC playoff predictions based on win predictions:

New England - 11.9 wins
Pittsburgh - 11.3 wins
Kansas City - 11.1 wins
Jacksonville - 9.2 wins
---
Buffalo - 9.9 wins
Tennessee - 8.6 wins
------
Baltimore - 8.1 wins
Houston - 7.6 wins

 

[dma0034]

https://www.profootballfocus.com/ne...-for-all-32-teams-over-the-rest-of-the-season

AFC playoff predictions based on win predictions:

New England - 11.9 wins
Pittsburgh - 11.3 wins
Kansas City - 11.1 wins
Jacksonville - 9.2 wins
---
Buffalo - 9.9 wins
Tennessee - 8.6 wins
------
Baltimore - 8.1 wins
Houston - 7.6 wins

Too low for Jacksonville and Tennessee. If you look at the Jags schedule it's hard to argue they won't get a first round bye.

Bills too have a rough schedule. I think 9 wins gets you in the playoffs this year.... Bills are 5-3: Home and Home against the Pats, @ KC, Home and Home with Dolphins, @ Chargers, Saints, Colts. That's a tough schedule

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

AFC playoff field isn't as interesting as NFC

Honestly the 6 in spots right now to me look very likely to make playoffs

Only Dolphins and Raiders feel like threat and neither team has shown much at this point and may never get it together

Jags are only team in the playoff spots that I am not sold on remaining to an extent but the schedule they have is very favorable for them to get 4-5 more wins

Bortles is doing good job of managing game and limiting his turnovers. Big improvement for him at this point

 

[Canada4Gold]

CLE is eliminated from the playoffs this week with...
- CLE loss + TEN win/tie + BUF win OR
- CLE loss + TEN win/tie + BUF tie + MIA win/tie OR
- CLE loss + HOU loss/tie + BUF win OR
- CLE loss + HOU loss/tie + BUF tie + MIA win/tie OR
- CLE loss + BUF win + BAL win OR
- CLE loss + BUF tie + MIA win/tie + BAL win

 

[Canada4Gold]

Updated after week 11. Nobody eliminated yet, not even the 0-10 Browns. Anyone's guess which of these 5-5 or 4-6 teams gets in, and what record they get in with. Maybe the Chargers, but who knows what KC does down the stretch, the Chargers could catch them for the division. Baltimore's gotta be the favorite at this point.

 

[What the Faulk]

The ESPN playoff machine is out early this year

ESPN.com's 2017 NFL Playoff Machine - Simulate Matchups and Scenarios

Here is how the Browns can make the playoffs

"I count 51 results that must occur including 3 ties. If we assume that the non-tie results have a 50% chance of occurring and ties are 1/256, then the Browns have a (1/2)^48 * (1/256)^3 = (1/2)^72 = 1/4.72*10^21 chance of making the playoffs. You're more likely to win the PowerBall 2 times in a row than the Browns are of making the playoffs this year."

"1/4.72*10^21 is equal to a 0.0000000000000000000002% chance"

 

[Tuggy]

Went through the rest of the year and got:

NE 14-2
Pit 11-5
Ten 11-5
KC 10-6
Jax 11-5
Bal 10-6

I'm sure this will be way off.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

Pitt 13-3
NE 13-3
Jax 11-5
KC 11-5
Ravens 10-6
Tennessee 9-7

 

[spintheblackcircle]

Went through the rest of the year and got:

NE 14-2
Pit 11-5
Ten 11-5
KC 10-6
Jax 11-5
Bal 10-6

I'm sure this will be way off.

Weird, I think I will be wrong too,but we have the same 6 teams

 

[TheAngryHank]

No one should sleep on the Chargers.

 

[Reality Check]

Jacksonville/Baltimore would be downright butt ugly offensively.

 

[Evincar]

Jacksonville/Baltimore would be downright butt ugly offensively.

So would KC-Tennessee. I think the NFL should just cancel the AFC wildcard weekend

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

I'd like to admit I was wrong with my Bills prediction at the start of this thread...woof...

No one should sleep on the Chargers.

Yup.

@ DAL
vs CLE
vs WSH
@ KC
@ NYJ
vs OAK

I could very well see them finishing 9-7 if they beat the banged up Cowboys on Turkey day. The issue for them is they have 2 more AFC losses than BAL already. So they probably need BAL to finish 8-8 and looking at the Ravens sched, I find it hard to believe they lose 3 more games (they should lose @ PIT and maybe vs DET but the other 4 games should be wins).

 

[Canada4Gold]

The ESPN playoff machine is out early this year

ESPN.com's 2017 NFL Playoff Machine - Simulate Matchups and Scenarios

Here is how the Browns can make the playoffs

"I count 51 results that must occur including 3 ties. If we assume that the non-tie results have a 50% chance of occurring and ties are 1/256, then the Browns have a (1/2)^48 * (1/256)^3 = (1/2)^72 = 1/4.72*10^21 chance of making the playoffs. You're more likely to win the PowerBall 2 times in a row than the Browns are of making the playoffs this year."

"1/4.72*10^21 is equal to a 0.0000000000000000000002% chance"

That reddit post isn't exactly right. There are numerous teams that can get to 6-10 that the Browns can still beat while he only has the Ravens there at 6-10. If fact, it's possible that 11 teams finish at 6-10 and Cleveland win the tiebreaker as hard as that seems to believe with the 4-8 conference record they'd end up with. But you can get Buffalo beating a 6-10 Dolphins and Jets on common games while Buffalo has a 4-8 conference record. Houston over Indy on common opponents with a 4-8 conference record. Then LAC over OAK and DEN on h2h with a 4-8 conference record. Then Cleveland wins the 4 way tie with HOU, BUF, and LAC on Strength of Victory. There are also scenarios that could see CLE ahead of TEN(but those would see a different team jumping up with more than 6 wins for the 5 seed).

Cleveland obviously doesn't have much breathing room at all, but relative to 51 consecutive results they need to go their way there's a lot of those can not go their way and the still get in, especially when you consider how many of those games end up being circular h2h results where nobody the results in a lot of them, changing other results end sup at the same end. BAL/HOU/IND all playing each other for example.

Here's an 11 way 6-10 scenario with no ties that sees CLE in for instance

NFL Playoff Predictor - Playoff Predictors

I've spent a little bit of time today doing the CLE elimination scenarios for next week, and they aren't as forced as you would expect. If Cleveland wins next week they likely aren't eliminated at all given Miami will likely lose to NE and I don't like Buffalo's chances against KC given the way the Bills last 3 weeks have went. Here is my current draft which given the complexity there could be some minor errors

CLE loss/tie
MIA win
BUF win
MIA tie + BUF tie
MIA tie + DEN win + IND win + NYJ win/tie + HOU win/tie
BUF tie + IND win + DEN win + HOU win/tie
BUF tie + NYJ win + IND win + DEN tie + HOU win/tie
BUF tie + NYJ win + IND tie + DEN win

 

[Kel Varnson]

No one should sleep on the Chargers.

No one should sleep on the Chargers ability to lose football games. The Jacksonville loss is a perfect example of this. (Chargers fan)

 

[TheAngryHank]

No one should sleep on the Chargers ability to lose football games. The Jacksonville loss is a perfect example of this. (Chargers fan)

The way the west looks right now the Charger could win that Div.

 

[rangerssharks414]

I think an 8-8 team will make the playoffs.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I'd like to admit I was wrong with my Bills prediction at the start of this thread...woof...



Yup.

@ DAL
vs CLE
vs WSH
@ KC
@ NYJ
vs OAK

I could very well see them finishing 9-7 if they beat the banged up Cowboys on Turkey day. The issue for them is they have 2 more AFC losses than BAL already. So they probably need BAL to finish 8-8 and looking at the Ravens sched, I find it hard to believe they lose 3 more games (they should lose @ PIT and maybe vs DET but the other 4 games should be wins).

Not sure if anyone else does this but to determine who might win conference record tiebreakers, I instead look at who has the worse non conference record. Because if 2 teams tie the team with a worse non conference record will have the better conference record, and it reduces it to a sample of 4 games instead of 12. Likewise for divisional teams common games I look at the 2 non common games instead.

Ravens are 1-2 against the NFC, Chargers are 1-1 so they aren't that far apart. Chargers would have to lose to either Dallas or WSH though(or both if DET beats BAL), and the Ravens beat the Lions which would further accentuate the difference in records. Unfortunately common games are looking in Baltimore's favour as well but that can potentially be remedied by adding a 3rd team.

Chargers may end up having to win out their 4 remaining AFC games because if they have losses it better be the non conference games to improve their tiebreakers.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Just realized that the only NFL team to make the playoffs after an 0-4 start was.... the San Diego Chargers. In 1992. Would be cool if they could do it again.

 

[Howe Elbows 9]

I think an 8-8 team will make the playoffs.

A couple of weeks ago I thought it would take 9 wins, but now I'm also starting to think an 8-8 team will qualify.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Mine will be excluding the possibility of ties, to keep things relatively simple. I'm not going to redo the standings list (at least until this thread grows by a couple of pages), rather I'll list the elimination and clinching scenarios as well as which teams control their own destiny (and which teams can gain or lose control of their own destiny this week).

POST THANKSGIVING-DAY WEEK 12:

Controls own destiny for #1 seed:
Pittsburgh, New England
- Pittsburgh can lose control of own destiny with a loss and a JAX win (JAX will win a head to head tiebreaker against PIT at 13-3 if there are no other teams involved)

Controls own destiny for 1st round bye:
Pittsburgh, New England
- Jacksonville gains control of their own destiny with a win and a NE loss. (If only Pittsburgh loses, there exists a 3 way tie at 13-3 where the #2 seed would be determined by strength of victory between NE and JAX, with Pittsburgh winning the #1 seed on conference record - obviously Pittsburgh beats New England later in the year in this scenario)

Controls own destiny for their division title
New England, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Kansas City
- Buffalo gains control of their own destiny with a win and a NE loss
- Tennessee loses control of their own destiny with a loss and a JAX win
- Oakland gains control of their own destiny with a win and a KC loss

Controls own destiny for the playoffs (herrrre we go)
New England, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Kansas City (via division only)
- Tennessee can lose control of their own destiny with a loss, BUF, BAL, and JAX win (if Jacksonville loses TEN would not control their own destiny for a wild card spot, but would win the division by winning out)
- Baltimore can gain control of their own destiny with a win and a BUF loss
- Buffalo can gain control of their own destiny with a win and a BAL loss (They are very close to controlling their own destiny with a win and a TEN loss - the worst they could do is a strength of victory tiebreaker that they would have a large lead in given that they would have to beat New England twice).

Believe it or not, no current 4-6 team is guaranteed a wild card spot at 10-6, regardless of other results around the league. As mentioned above Oakland would win the AFC West at 10-6 if KC loses this week, but tiebreaker situations prevent everyone else from guaranteeing a wild card spot at 10-6. Houston was close, their "out" scenario involved LA winning the AFC West and Buffalo sweeping NE after losing to KC this week, but the scenario is still there for them to end up 7th at 10-6. Even 5-5 Baltimore can miss at 11-5 if the Bills win out and Jacksonville finishes 2nd in the AFC South at 11-5.

Clinching Scenarios
None

Elimination Scenarios
Cleveland is eliminated with a loss, BUF win, or MIA win (thx Canada4Gold)