Ah, yes, dumpster fire. Tied for first in points in the NHL. 3rd in goals scored and 1st in goals against. Best GD in the league. 1st in GF% at 5-on-5. 8th in CF% at 5-on-5. 1st in Sv % at 5-on-5.
Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXX (Shatty susp. 2 games)
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Ah, yes, dumpster fire. Tied for first in points in the NHL. 3rd in goals scored and 1st in goals against. Best GD in the league. 1st in GF% at 5-on-5. 8th in CF% at 5-on-5. 1st in Sv % at 5-on-5.
Coldplay619
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twabby
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Back to the old lines.
Not that it's a surprise but it shows me that Trotz really doesn't really pay attention to shot-attempt numbers at all, but rather just pays attention to results rather than the process. I'd be surprised if his thinking was anything more than "Best first line = best LW + best C + best RW" even if they aren't the right mix for each other. If Oshie wasn't shooting 23% this season (a full 10% higher than his career average) then that line would look a lot worse than it already does.
You can criticize the effort and engagement level of Ovechkin all you want, but the head coach isn't doing him any favors by sticking him on a line that simply doesn't work. Is it really a surprise that he looked more engaged with different linemates against the Rangers, LA and Anaheim? The dude is mired in the worst goal-scoring drought of his career and instead of keeping him with players that were giving him good looks Trotz decides to go back to the first line where Ovechkin has looked the worst. Seems like Trotz doesn't have the answers.
hb12xchamps
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Why is it a problem going back to the old lines? They were the lines (minus Bura) that dominated the league before the bye week.
You had to expect them to **** the bed going out to Cali. They haven't done well there in years and the Caps aren't the only team to suck it up when traveling out West this season. It happens
You had to expect them to **** the bed going out to Cali. They haven't done well there in years and the Caps aren't the only team to suck it up when traveling out West this season. It happens
twabby
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Over the past two seasons the 8-19-77 combo has been one of the worst possession lines on the team. Yes, the team was scoring tons of goals during their run but the first line was still pretty much possession-neutral while the middle 6 was doing much of the heavy lifting. (remember how dominant 92 and 10-20-65 were?) Also they were getting insane amounts of puck-luck during that period that was bound to return to earth.
Ovechkin has only 27 goals this year and is on pace for his fewest SOG in his career, and has skated the overwhelming majority of the time with Oshie and Backstrom. Simply flipping Kuznetsov and Backstrom would yield lines that have been incredibly dominant in the past and will likely get Ovechkin going IMO:
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=127599997&postcount=383
Trotz hasn't put Ovechkin in the best position to succeed at even strength and he deserves much of the blame for his poor numbers this season for sticking with a combination with objectively bad numbers.
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Jags
Mildly Disturbed
I disagree. I think it's pretty plain that he's putting Ovechkin where he can do the least damage. Backstrom and Oshie are good possession players. Ovechkin is a turnover machine.
He rarely holds the puck when he's not on the rush, and 90% of his rushes end with blown shots and passes. Any other time he's passed the puck, he instantly chips it away, often to no one or to a contested spot. The solution is to get him to stop doing all of that, so having him on with guys that can carry him, generate zone entries and maintain possession without him, and score when he can't is as good a plan as any.
The only reason Ovi's not getting a dose of Beagle right now is that Nick is still playing well. When Nick joins Ovi in the turnover game with one busted stretch pass after another, that's when they usually get Beagle.
Where would you put Ovi right now? We don't need him bringing Kuznetsov down. Kuznetsov needs wings that move to space when he holds the puck, and Ovi's not so great at that. Put him on the third or fourth? Can't see how that'd help.
Ovi needs to get this rhythm and swagger back, and that's not going to happen bouncing him around the lineup. Oshie and Backstrom make stuff happen. If they handle zone entries as much as possible, Ovi's much less of a possession liability.
Blades of Steel
log off.
txpd
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Nobody seems to wonder what Ovechkin wants. If anyone thinks that Ov doesn't care about this goal drought and the losing streak and getting passed in the standings by Crosby and Malkin, their nuts.
Trotz changed it up and put Ov with Kuzy and from what I saw of the game it was Wilson that seemed to gain in the chances category. Not Ov.
Might be that Ov feels like he needs a comfort level to get his game straight. That means Backstrom. It could be that asked how he felt after playing with Kuzy that he said he wasn't comfortable.
Sometimes as a coach, forcing the issue(you are going to play right wing, so get used to it) is a good thing and other times not so much.
From my perspective, this game they have been playing since they caught fire is very dependent on knowing where people are on the ice before you get the puck so that you can move it. Playing with new linemates doesn't facilitate that. At all.
Trotz changed it up and put Ov with Kuzy and from what I saw of the game it was Wilson that seemed to gain in the chances category. Not Ov.
Might be that Ov feels like he needs a comfort level to get his game straight. That means Backstrom. It could be that asked how he felt after playing with Kuzy that he said he wasn't comfortable.
Sometimes as a coach, forcing the issue(you are going to play right wing, so get used to it) is a good thing and other times not so much.
From my perspective, this game they have been playing since they caught fire is very dependent on knowing where people are on the ice before you get the puck so that you can move it. Playing with new linemates doesn't facilitate that. At all.
So nobody here said this is the best team, the best chance to get the cup and so on? Not really. Significant number of regular posters here expected this team to have some chance of advancing beyond 2nd round.
CapitalsCupReality
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Langway
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Then put him with Eller and Connolly, no? That's where he belongs. The problem is they don't have anyone going to the point where Trotz can put together earned lines.
The main issue with this top line is that, while respectable defensively at C/RW, those two are too slow through the neutral zone and you don't want the puck on Ovechkin's stick much either. There's no easy answer to these problems when the pace is elevated but I'd go with...
Johansson - Backstrom - Oshie
Vrana/Burakovsky - Kuznetsov - Williams
Ovechkin - Eller - Connolly
GRIND
Coldplay619
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Ovi becomes much more of a zone entry option with Backstrom and Oshie because all three of them are so goddamn slow.
Kuznetsov is a much better fit for the exact reasons you mentioned, he's a one man zone entry option.
He opens up the ice for Ovechkin.
twabby
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The problem is neither Oshie nor Backstrom are nearly as good at entering the zone with control or speed as someone like Kuznetsov or even Johansson. Oshie turns the puck over just as frequently at the attacking blue-line and Backstrom simply doesn't have the speed to back defenders off. I'd love to see some numbers on this, but it seems like Ovechkin is the primary zone-entry option on the top line right now and he simply isn't good enough at it. Despite Ovechkin's speed getting worse, he's probably still the fastest player on that line and it's simply not acceptable to have a first line that slow unless they are exception at other things (they aren't). Putting him alongside Kuznetsov should limit these blue-line turnovers that lead to high quality chances against (the numbers certainly indicate that 8-92-77 allow fewer chances and expected goals against than 8-19-77).
I'd do 8-92-77 and 90-19-14. Both lines would have a primary zone-entry option who can enter with speed (92 and 90, respectively) and both lines seem to have a style that they thrive at (8-92-77 seems more adept at transition offense and high cycles, 90-19-14 seems better at half-court offense of low cycling and crashing the net). As I mentioned before I don't really think either 19 or 77 are great primary zone-entry options.
And regarding the bolded I can't disagree with this more. If ANYTHING Ovechkin's main strength is finding soft spots and being able to get shots off in difficult positions and finishing in general. There's a reason that Ovechkin usually leads the NHL in shots on goal. That's exactly the type of player Kuznetsov needs IMO: a shooter.
I feel like people are looking at Ovechkin's performance as being entirely determined by internal factors and not considering the situation around him. It's not just a matter of him playing better and getting his swagger back entirely on his own, the coaches need to put him in the best position for both him and the team to succeed. 8-19-77 isn't the answer IMO and the numbers pretty clearly indicate there is a potential better alternative and an alternative that has played better from an actual and underlying numbers standpoint. Better results and a better process.
How do people look at the numbers that 8-92-77 and 90-19-14/65 have put up together and not want to see that again? It's perplexing to me.
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txpd
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so far, the teams with the best chances of making it to the finals haven't and the one that did, wasn't supposed to. I think we all know that a great regular season with the best team with the best chance still has to face the fact of the name on the front of the sweater.
I will be interesting to watch them in the post season. I think they are good. But I am in no way thinking they do any better than any other good team they have had. So far it has not been proven to me that Shattenkirk will bring more than Joe Corvo did. Not saying that it wont happen. I am just saying long time Caps fans like me need to see the 4th win in round two before believing anything is different
Jags
Mildly Disturbed
Our 3rd line sees a lot of our competition's best. Ovi doesn't have to be a defensive liability, but he can be. He's also the guy most likely to carry the puck out of the zone in that trio, Connolly prefers the left, Eller isn't strong on faceoffs, and neither of those guys draws much attention, meaning more eyes and pressure on Ovi.
I think that's more likely to perpetuate or exacerbate the problems at work here, and diminishes a 3rd line that has been driving possession and generating chances for us all year.
Ovi needs to integrate more into the team. Being the rambunctious outlier all the time isn't serving him as well as it used to. He needs to settle down and become part of what works for the players around him, not constantly expect everyone to focus on leveraging his talents, especially when he's not delivering.
He hasn't been uniformly godawful. He's gotten off some solid shots and has shown a real gift for distribution under the right circumstances. You're not going to encourage him to do that more by putting him on with guys that can't finish. After 10 minutes of that he'll be convinced he has to do it all himself, and that's the opposite of what we want.
I think that's more likely to perpetuate or exacerbate the problems at work here, and diminishes a 3rd line that has been driving possession and generating chances for us all year.
Ovi needs to integrate more into the team. Being the rambunctious outlier all the time isn't serving him as well as it used to. He needs to settle down and become part of what works for the players around him, not constantly expect everyone to focus on leveraging his talents, especially when he's not delivering.
He hasn't been uniformly godawful. He's gotten off some solid shots and has shown a real gift for distribution under the right circumstances. You're not going to encourage him to do that more by putting him on with guys that can't finish. After 10 minutes of that he'll be convinced he has to do it all himself, and that's the opposite of what we want.
Langway
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Not really. The fourth line sees slightly better competition normally, esp. lately in that role in particular, so it's more of a mismatch type depth scoring line that sees the weakest comp. overall. If there's a place to hide him, it's there. It's the only way to go the Pittsburgh route in having a weapon on each scoring line.
Ovechkin is fine when it's a fairly easy game, the rest of the team is playing well, systeming along and that top line is gifted a rush opportunity. Otherwise, when the games are hard, I don't expect him to do more than Try Hard. Eller and Connolly can do much of the dirty work that the top line does while he can maybe feast on lesser competition. If that in turn frees up the top six, so be it. Maybe him being a decoy is the most strategic solution?
Their team attacking in general needs to be way better than it has been. Their support and focus aren't anywhere close to where it was to the point where it's difficult to single out anyone individually. They all need to be better but if Ovechkin can't lead the way in any meaningful sense then the decoy option is worth considering.
CapitalsCupReality
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artilector
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- Nobody is really performing great. That's by itself a decent reason to (continue to) try different things.
- Of all Caps forwards, Wilson recently provided the most spark, and Williams arguably the least. A good reason to feed Wilson more chances in the top-6/9, at the expense of Williams.
- The one thing we more or less know, is that Ovi-Backstrom-Oshie is a bad possession line that's overall performing as less than the sum of its parts. Another reason to try other options.
Putting the puzzle together (and keeping it working) with this roster is a legitimately difficult task. Quite possibly Trotz can't think the game at a high-enough level to do it, so his decisions are based on more basic rules of thumb -- that are decent in general, but also create blindspots that he does not notice.
It is what it is. Trotz is a pretty good coach overall, just maybe not elite.
Right now, it looks to me like -- somehow, the Caps will need to get on a huge roll, pre-bye-week level, to compensate for everything -- intrinsic chemistry issues, suboptimal coaching, etc.
But it starts with cutting down on the dumb. The one thing they can control -- when you're trying to gain some traction, at least don't shoot yourself in the foot.
And work on crisp passing in practice. Sometimes this team looks like it's been ignoring fundamentals for a month.
- Of all Caps forwards, Wilson recently provided the most spark, and Williams arguably the least. A good reason to feed Wilson more chances in the top-6/9, at the expense of Williams.
- The one thing we more or less know, is that Ovi-Backstrom-Oshie is a bad possession line that's overall performing as less than the sum of its parts. Another reason to try other options.
Putting the puzzle together (and keeping it working) with this roster is a legitimately difficult task. Quite possibly Trotz can't think the game at a high-enough level to do it, so his decisions are based on more basic rules of thumb -- that are decent in general, but also create blindspots that he does not notice.
It is what it is. Trotz is a pretty good coach overall, just maybe not elite.
Right now, it looks to me like -- somehow, the Caps will need to get on a huge roll, pre-bye-week level, to compensate for everything -- intrinsic chemistry issues, suboptimal coaching, etc.
But it starts with cutting down on the dumb. The one thing they can control -- when you're trying to gain some traction, at least don't shoot yourself in the foot.
And work on crisp passing in practice. Sometimes this team looks like it's been ignoring fundamentals for a month.
artilector
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Wait, what?
The Head Inquisitor does not have faith in the salvation of saintly souls??
That's awesome, the amount of crap you give people for perceived pessimism, while yourself being exhibit #1.
Langway
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There is no answer if they play with their head up their ass and have little ability to raise their games. Their work rate lately suggests a pretender. It doesn't matter how they put it together if that's all they're putting into it. It's somewhat pointless to fixate on combinations when habits across the board have been so poor.
We'll see if their team meeting changes anything but Minnesota is a very quality team so I expect a L tonight even if they're on better behavior. Then looking forward you've got vNSH, @TBL, vCGY and vCBJ. Again, even if they're playing somewhat smarter and more disciplined that may not be enough against teams on a roll that are consistently finding ways to win. Arizona twice and Colorado in a four game stretch at the end of the month should help but the funk they're in will not be simple to fix IMO. Getting back to defending better would help but it's not that easy against teams playing with confidence. If their team D can't elevate with urgency, I'm not sure they play their way out of this much. Without a go-to they're just pretty average and it's on them to show some coherent path to success beyond raw ability.
We'll see if their team meeting changes anything but Minnesota is a very quality team so I expect a L tonight even if they're on better behavior. Then looking forward you've got vNSH, @TBL, vCGY and vCBJ. Again, even if they're playing somewhat smarter and more disciplined that may not be enough against teams on a roll that are consistently finding ways to win. Arizona twice and Colorado in a four game stretch at the end of the month should help but the funk they're in will not be simple to fix IMO. Getting back to defending better would help but it's not that easy against teams playing with confidence. If their team D can't elevate with urgency, I'm not sure they play their way out of this much. Without a go-to they're just pretty average and it's on them to show some coherent path to success beyond raw ability.
txpd
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who's being pessimistic? being steady and guarding against meltdowns after a loss or two is different than expecting the team to be any different than it has been in the past. I wont be surprised if they win. I think they have a chance. I also wont be shocked if they do the same ole same ole.
Sorry, Arti....I am not a pitchforks and torches kind of guy. I don't think I have said different.
artilector
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I'd be perfectly fine with Caps trying that -- except I still have hopes that Bura/Vrana - Eller - Connolly could get back to earlier chemistry. Although, why not try in the meantime...
Honestly, I'm not sure there's any real good place to put Ovechkin in. Even the Ovechkin-Kuz combination that twabby likes... it makes sense, but I have BIG doubts about how that combo holds up at playoff speed/intensity...
I guess... if we're banking on sparking real offense out of Ovi, I think you'd have to put him with the most dynamic guy -- Kuz.
If we take the scarecrow approach... to me it makes sense to pair Ovi with Wilson (center matters less). Draw good defenders, take a pound of flesh, bank on other lines to do more damage. And if Ovi's goal-scoring ability comes back, he can pot a few with any linemates.
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artilector
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Well, I don't have particular concerns about them not trying hard in playoffs. I can't remember a playoff series loss where the issue seemed to be lack of effort (lack of killer instinct, sure, but that may not be something you can really control).
But I think you're right in the sense that in order to have a chance in playoffs, the Caps need to reach a very high level of execution (plus excitement/momentum/etc) -- within the current system, at least. And to do that, in the remaining time in the regular season, they need to put in significant effort -- to get out of this rut and then get back on the horse... (they first need to find this horse again, haha).
If they just float along until playoffs... I'm sure their effort will be fine when it matters, but they may then need a miracle to suddenly start executing at the level necessary to beat the best.
Alexander the Gr8
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Let Ovi wake up first then move him around the lineup. Right now he needs to be spoon fed scoring opportunities by 19 or 92.
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