There’s a lot of talk about era adjustment and extra PP ice time with regard to these two so I ran the numbers.
07-08
2.38 ESG/60
6.52 PPG/60
23-24
2.78 ESG/60
7.65 PPG/60
Ovechkin 07-08
1413 ES Minutes
1.83 ESG/60
1.36 ESA/60
465:46 PP Minutes
2.83 PPG/60
1.93 PPA/60
Matthews 23-24
1282:48 ES Minutes
2.25 ESG/60
1.17 ESA/60
252:37 PP Minutes
4.04 PPG/60
2.61 PPA/60
So if we adjust these rates to one another‘s seasons, we get this:
Matthews 07-08
1.93 ESG/60
1.00 ESA/60
3.44 PPG/60
2.22 PPG/60
Ovechkin 23-24
2.14 ESG/60
1.59 ESG/60
3.32 PPG/60
2.26 PPA/60
With these rates, if Matthews played Ovechkin’s minutes in 07-08, he’d end up with:
45 ESG 24 ESA
27 PPG 17 PPA
For a total stat line of
82GP 72G 41 A 113 PTS
in Ovechkin’s minutes
7 more goals than Ovechkin, and 1 more point.
Now if Matthews played his current minutes with his 07-08 adjusted rates, he’d end up with:
41 ESG 21 ESA
14 PPG 9 PPA
For a total stat line of
74GP 55G 30A 85PTS or 82GP 61G 33A 94PTS
over an 82 game season.
Given this would put him 6th in scoring that season and he’s currently tied for 6th now, that makes sense.
With these rates for Ovechkin, if he played Matthews’ minutes in this era, he’d end up with a stat line of:
46 ESG 34 ESA
14 PPG 10 PPA
For a total stat line of
74GP 60G 44A 104PTS or, when prorated
82GP 66G 49A 115 PTS
2 more points than Matthews has currently, but 5 fewer goals.
And if he played his 07-08 minutes with the adjusted rates for this season, he’d have a stat line of:
50 ESG 37A
26 PPG 18A
For a total stat line of
82GP 76G 55A 131 PTS
Slightly behind the top 3 this year in points, but with a huge goal advantage.
So, if we give Matthews complete benefit of the doubt when it comes to maintaining his P/60 over larger minutes, we see a slight goals advantage and roughly the same point production, with both having low secondaries. But the difference is so large in terms of actual production that I don’t think we can assume those rates continue, especially since score effects have an impact on rate measurements and there’s a lot of strange variance with PP ice time due to the fact a PP ends when you score. We also don’t know how extra minutes would affect him. I do think Matthews is better than his raw totals suggest given his low PP ice time, but given the raw totals, teammates and visual impact, I don’t think he can be put above Ovechkin as an all around offensive player.