2024 Matthews vs 2008 Ovi: Who's better player?

[kevsh]

no one cares more about Leafs fans than Leafs fans themselves. settle down

You suggested this thread be closed because apparently, according to you, there was only one sensible answer to the question.

I'd argue it should have been closed instead because of replies by people like you were inevitable. First suggesting that anyone with a brain shares your opinion (and therefore anyone who doesn't, has no brain), then attacking all Leafs fans twice in two posts.

How about instead just share your deep, fact-based insight on why Ovi was better and go about your day? Instead you're either just trolling or you're just a sad, angry person looking to start something. Grow up.

 

[General Fanager]

Gotta go Ovi here.

 

[Midnight Judges]

I remember that stellar season for Ovechkin, I watched it live. He cheated for offense regularly and aside from making some huge hits, wasn’t a contributor to defense. Matthews is superior to him in every facet when it comes to that.

Funny how the defensive statistics don't remotely back you up on that.

 

[CanadienShark]

How is the guy with 65 goals not in the top 3 players this year?

That happens when there are better players.

 

[banks]

Matthews deserves even more credit than he tends to get on FH.

But he isn't better now that Ovie's prime. I picked the gr8 one here.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

Actually Ovechkin was getting Selke votes early in his career.

Whoops.

great. it's still well known about Ovechkin's defensive woes. are you trying to say I'm a liar and he was never poor defensively?

Ovechkin never started to care about the defensive side of the game till like half way through his career and that change was a big part of him finally winning a cup.

he grew as a player and became more than just a offensive force. but at one point that's all he was, was a goal scoring maniac that would hit anything in sight but thats it. stops playing in the defensive zone.

on another note though. 07/08 would be the only time in Ovechkin's career where he scores 60 or more

 

[mclaren55]

Funny how the defensive statistics don't remotely back you up on that.

Neither do the individual defensive metrics for Ovechkin vs Matthews. Ovi was a turnover machine that year. He was massively impressive offensively, but people here saying he was a beast defensively are lying to themselves or didn’t watch that season.

 

[Regal]

There’s a lot of talk about era adjustment and extra PP ice time with regard to these two so I ran the numbers.

07-08
2.38 ESG/60
6.52 PPG/60

23-24
2.78 ESG/60
7.65 PPG/60

Ovechkin 07-08
1413 ES Minutes
1.83 ESG/60
1.36 ESA/60

465:46 PP Minutes
2.83 PPG/60
1.93 PPA/60

Matthews 23-24
1282:48 ES Minutes
2.25 ESG/60
1.17 ESA/60

252:37 PP Minutes
4.04 PPG/60
2.61 PPA/60

So if we adjust these rates to one another‘s seasons, we get this:

Matthews 07-08
1.93 ESG/60
1.00 ESA/60

3.44 PPG/60
2.22 PPG/60

Ovechkin 23-24
2.14 ESG/60
1.59 ESG/60

3.32 PPG/60
2.26 PPA/60

With these rates, if Matthews played Ovechkin’s minutes in 07-08, he’d end up with:

45 ESG 24 ESA
27 PPG 17 PPA

For a total stat line of
82GP 72G 41 A 113 PTS
in Ovechkin’s minutes

7 more goals than Ovechkin, and 1 more point.

Now if Matthews played his current minutes with his 07-08 adjusted rates, he’d end up with:

41 ESG 21 ESA
14 PPG 9 PPA

For a total stat line of
74GP 55G 30A 85PTS or 82GP 61G 33A 94PTS
over an 82 game season.

Given this would put him 6th in scoring that season and he’s currently tied for 6th now, that makes sense.


With these rates for Ovechkin, if he played Matthews’ minutes in this era, he’d end up with a stat line of:

46 ESG 34 ESA
14 PPG 10 PPA

For a total stat line of
74GP 60G 44A 104PTS or, when prorated
82GP 66G 49A 115 PTS

2 more points than Matthews has currently, but 5 fewer goals.


And if he played his 07-08 minutes with the adjusted rates for this season, he’d have a stat line of:

50 ESG 37A
26 PPG 18A

For a total stat line of
82GP 76G 55A 131 PTS

Slightly behind the top 3 this year in points, but with a huge goal advantage.

So, if we give Matthews complete benefit of the doubt when it comes to maintaining his P/60 over larger minutes, we see a slight goals advantage and roughly the same point production, with both having low secondaries. But the difference is so large in terms of actual production that I don’t think we can assume those rates continue, especially since score effects have an impact on rate measurements and there’s a lot of strange variance with PP ice time due to the fact a PP ends when you score. We also don’t know how extra minutes would affect him. I do think Matthews is better than his raw totals suggest given his low PP ice time, but given the raw totals, teammates and visual impact, I don’t think he can be put above Ovechkin as an all around offensive player.

 

[Satoru Gojo]

I didn't follow the NHL until 2006 but since I've been watching 2008 Ovechkin is probably the best MVP season of the post lockout era. (Yes, Including McDavids 2023 in that)

 

[Arthur Morgan]

I find it really interesting that Matthews scored 65 on 333 shots on goal but took Ovechkin 446 shots on goal to score 65.
has to count for something. or does Ovechkin 08 season still blow Matthews out the water?

 

[Regal]

I find it really interesting that Matthews scored 65 on 333 shots on goal but took Ovechkin 446 shots on goal to score 65.
has to count for something. or does Ovechkin 08 season still blow Matthews out the water?

This would only have relevance if teams were limited to how many shots they can take, or if shots were super easy to take like in basketball.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

This would only have relevance if teams were limited to how many shots they can take, or if shots were super easy to take like in basketball.

what? what does this even mean? took Matthews 113 less shots to score 65. pretty damn impressive.

 

[Regal]

what? what does this even mean? took Matthews 113 less shots to score 65. pretty damn impressive.

You said it has to count for something but it doesn’t. Ovechkin generating that many more shots doesn’t hinder his teammates ability to score, which means all that matters is the actual goals scored, not the shots it took to score them. Shooting percentage tells you nothing about the quality of the player or his value

 

[authentic]

Wouldn't his contemporaries like Malkin, Kovalchuk, Iginla, Heatley etc have benefited from more PPOs as well in comparison to players in today's NHL? He still outscored them.

It's like when people say goalies sucked in Gretzky's day. Everyone else was shooting on the same ones plus Fuhr but couldn't score nearly as much.

Yeah, but Matthews isn't getting powerplay time like them relative to the rest of the league. Ovechkin and Kovalchuk were always at the very top, Matthews is routinely around 50th in the league in powerplay time. That's a massive difference.

Part of the reason Ovechkin has historically collected more assists/overall points than Matthews does is also down to their respective approaches to scoring goals. Ovechkin is an absolutely absurd volume shooter (very high # of overall shots, relatively low shooting percentage), while Matthews is a bit more of a sniper (comparatively “lower” # of overall shots, higher shooting percentage). So even if Ovechkin isn’t as accurate, he’s just so good at getting pucks on net, which not only more than makes up for the lower shooting percentage, but also leads to more assists due to the high number of rebounds that his shot volume naturally produces. This difference in style at least partially contributes to the reason why Ovechkin was able to win an Art Ross, while Matthews has never been in the running.

But let's also not forget that in his Hart winning season Matthews actually did lead the league in points per game on a goalie, even over McDavid. The fact that he managed that playing the style of game he does and the lack of powerplay time is quite frankly ridiculous.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

It means shooting percentage tells you nothing about the quality of the player

well it shows Matthews is the more efficient goal scorer. even if u look at his 60 goal season in 73 games. he still has 98 shots left for 5 goals to match him.

I guess none of this matters though.

I dunno starting to feel like everyone has placed Ovechkin's 08 season on this pedestal that can never be touched. but whenever someone makes an argument the bar gets pushed further and further away.

 

[authentic]

There’s a lot of talk about era adjustment and extra PP ice time with regard to these two so I ran the numbers.

07-08
2.38 ESG/60
6.52 PPG/60

23-24
2.78 ESG/60
7.65 PPG/60

Ovechkin 07-08
1413 ES Minutes
1.83 ESG/60
1.36 ESA/60

465:46 PP Minutes
2.83 PPG/60
1.93 PPA/60

Matthews 23-24
1282:48 ES Minutes
2.25 ESG/60
1.17 ESA/60

252:37 PP Minutes
4.04 PPG/60
2.61 PPA/60

So if we adjust these rates to one another‘s seasons, we get this:

Matthews 07-08
1.93 ESG/60
1.00 ESA/60

3.44 PPG/60
2.22 PPG/60

Ovechkin 23-24
2.14 ESG/60
1.59 ESG/60

3.32 PPG/60
2.26 PPA/60

With these rates, if Matthews played Ovechkin’s minutes in 07-08, he’d end up with:

45 ESG 24 ESA
27 PPG 17 PPA

For a total stat line of
82GP 72G 41 A 113 PTS
in Ovechkin’s minutes

7 more goals than Ovechkin, and 1 more point.

Now if Matthews played his current minutes with his 07-08 adjusted rates, he’d end up with:

41 ESG 21 ESA
14 PPG 9 PPA

For a total stat line of
74GP 55G 30A 85PTS or 82GP 61G 33A 94PTS
over an 82 game season.

Given this would put him 6th in scoring that season and he’s currently tied for 6th now, that makes sense.


With these rates for Ovechkin, if he played Matthews’ minutes in this era, he’d end up with a stat line of:

46 ESG 34 ESA
14 PPG 10 PPA

For a total stat line of
74GP 60G 44A 104PTS or, when prorated
82GP 66G 49A 115 PTS

2 more points than Matthews has currently, but 5 fewer goals.


And if he played his 07-08 minutes with the adjusted rates for this season, he’d have a stat line of:

50 ESG 37A
26 PPG 18A

For a total stat line of
82GP 76G 55A 131 PTS

Slightly behind the top 3 this year in points, but with a huge goal advantage.

So, if we give Matthews complete benefit of the doubt when it comes to maintaining his P/60 over larger minutes, we see a slight goals advantage and roughly the same point production, with both having low secondaries. But the difference is so large in terms of actual production that I don’t think we can assume those rates continue, especially since score effects have an impact on rate measurements and there’s a lot of strange variance with PP ice time due to the fact a PP ends when you score. We also don’t know how extra minutes would affect him. I do think Matthews is better than his raw totals suggest given his low PP ice time, but given the raw totals, teammates and visual impact, I don’t think he can be put above Ovechkin as an all around offensive player.

Now I'm wondering what is more accurate these adjustments or the ones the statician did that showed Matthews is 1 goal away from being a better goal scorer than peak Ovechkin when adjusting for ice time and scoring rates in each game state... either way it's interesting to think about but Ovechkin was a dominant ES goal scorer in 07-08 to be certain

 

[Arthur Morgan]

You said it has to count for something but it doesn’t. Ovechkin generating that many more shots doesn’t hinder his teammates ability to score, which means all that matters is the actual goals scored, not the shots it took to score them. Shooting percentage tells you nothing about the quality of the player or his value

like I said. bar keeps getting pushed further and further. lmao

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Matthews may have an argument if the question is simply about who the better goal scorer was (though I'd still give the edge to Ovi). But when the question asks who is the better PLAYER then it's Ovechkin quite easily. He was absolutely dynamic and unstoppable back then.

 

[Regal]

Now I'm wondering what is more accurate these adjustments or the ones the statician did that showed Matthews is 1 goal away from being a better goal scorer than peak Ovechkin when adjusting for ice time and scoring rates in each game state... either way it's interesting to think about but Ovechkin was a dominant ES goal scorer in 07-08 to be certain

I think from a goalscoring perspective it’s definitely close and you can make the case for Matthews.

 

[Incognito]

Yeah, but Matthews isn't getting powerplay time like them relative to the rest of the league. Ovechkin and Kovalchuk were always at the very top, Matthews is routinely around 50th in the league in powerplay time. That's a massive difference.



But let's also not forget that in his Hart winning season Matthews actually did lead the league in points per game on a goalie, even over McDavid. The fact that he managed that playing the style of game he does and the lack of powerplay time is quite frankly ridiculous.

Good point. That Hart was well deserved in my opinion, and his peers seemed to agree given that he also won the Lindsay.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

Matthews may have an argument if the question is simply about who the better goal scorer was (though I'd still give the edge to Ovi). But when the question asks who is the better PLAYER then it's Ovechkin quite easily. He was absolutely dynamic and unstoppable back then.

Im just saying it's very close, ALOT closer then people give Matthews credit for.

 

[Regal]

like I said. bar keeps getting pushed further and further. lmao

I mean that’s just basic hockey 101. Sorry if you’re late to the game. If anything it’s the reverse. Leafs fans love to throw out everything they can find to make Matthews look good

well it shows Matthews is the more efficient goal scorer. even if u look at his 60 goal season in 73 games. he still has 98 shots left for 5 goals to match him.

I guess none of this matters though.

I dunno starting to feel like everyone has placed Ovechkin's 08 season on this pedestal that can never be touched. but whenever someone makes an argument the bar gets pushed further and further away.

No he doesn’t because that’s not how hockey works. He took fewer shots because he’s not as good at generating shots. And not all shots are created equal. A player can have a better shooting percentage than another on every area of the ice but a lower overall shooting percentage due to shooting more lower percentage shots. Ovechkin frequently took shots from distance to try to create rebounds.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

You suggested this thread be closed because apparently, according to you, there was only one sensible answer to the question.

I'd argue it should have been closed instead because of replies by people like you were inevitable. First suggesting that anyone with a brain shares your opinion (and therefore anyone who doesn't, has no brain), then attacking all Leafs fans twice in two posts.

How about instead just share your deep, fact-based insight on why Ovi was better and go about your day? Instead you're either just trolling or you're just a sad, angry person looking to start something. Grow up.

I suggested it be closed because of the clear vote disparity, despite Leafs fans’ best efforts. Lol

And to be clear, there is no attacking Leafs fans here. Leafs fans are homers just like every other fanbase. Just happens that Leafs have probably the largest fanbase to help skew the numbers and seemingly the debate. And yet it’s still 80-20 in favor of the absolutely obvious pick here.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

I mean that’s just basic hockey 101. Sorry if you’re late to the game. If anything it’s the reverse. Leafs fans love to throw out everything they can find to make Matthews look good

I mean he took 113 less shots to score the same amount of goals. which obviously means he's shooting more accurate. and there's evidence for more than just 1 season. so its not just a fluke

ironic seeing someone say we love to throw anything they can find to make Matthews look good. same can be said about HF. how many polls has Matthews lost again? Im sure others could fill in all the players he lost to.

I mean that’s just basic hockey 101. Sorry if you’re late to the game. If anything it’s the reverse. Leafs fans love to throw out everything they can find to make Matthews look good



No he doesn’t because that’s not how hockey works. He took fewer shots because he’s not as good at generating shots.

but yet he's scoring the same amount? and yes that is how it works. Matthews also plays a tougher position. I would hope an elite goal scorer like Ovechkin would shoot more playing on the wing.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

I suggested it be closed because of the clear vote disparity, despite Leafs fans’ best efforts. Lol

And to be clear, there is no attacking Leafs fans here. Leafs fans are homers just like every other fanbase. Just happens that Leafs have probably the largest fanbase to help skew the numbers and seemingly the debate. And yet it’s still 80-20 in favor of the absolutely obvious pick here.

I didnt even vote lol, I dunno if Matthews season is better than OV. he was so good back then. but I think Matthews season has been close. MUCH closer than people give him credit for.

Im mostly curious how many goals or what it would take to put Matthews on the same level as Ovechkin. one poster said 80 goals so I dunno it seems like the bar as been pushed so far away no one will ever trump that 08 season.