2024 Draft Thread

[jaric1862]

Corey Pronman’s updated top 32 came out today. As much as I love reading these, the Leafs have seem to go off the board the past few years with the Minten/Cowan picks. Wonder if that’s the case again this year.

I think some qualities they really put stock into are 1. Hockey sense 2. Compete

 

[SprDaVE]

Corey Pronman’s updated top 32 came out today. As much as I love reading these, the Leafs have seem to go off the board the past few years with the Minten/Cowan picks. Wonder if that’s the case again this year.

I think some qualities they really put stock into are 1. Hockey sense 2. Compete

He's high on Cole Beaudoin. His skating is pretty iffy but he works very hard and projects well as a center similar to Minten.

 

[Fogelhund]

This is a conversation that happens every time the draft is near. Every time. It's not about drafting for what you need, it's about drafting the better player. If there's a "big" player available that projects to be great then sure... but removing options just because of what you need or their size is bad for the team

Sure, I get the mantra, but you seem to be agreeing with what I've said... if you've rated players close, and one is what you have a real need for, and the other you have plenty of... you don't pick the one you have plenty of.

On one mock draft, you've got Mews 23rd and Emery 25th.... that's about the same, that's easy.

Mews doesn't appear in Mackenzie's top 32.

But if you've got a guy like Buium, and he drops, and you have him ranked top 10... then sure.. but if they are nearly the same....

It's interesting looking across rankings... there is a lot of variance this year.

 

[SprDaVE]

Sure, I get the mantra, but you seem to be agreeing with what I've said... if you've rated players close, and one is what you have a real need for, and the other you have plenty of... you don't pick the one you have plenty of.

On one mock draft, you've got Mews 23rd and Emery 25th.... that's about the same, that's easy.

Mews doesn't appear in Mackenzie's top 32.

But if you've got a guy like Buium, and he drops, and you have him ranked top 10... then sure.. but if they are nearly the same....

It's interesting looking across rankings... there is a lot of variance this year.

I'd be shocked if Minten or Cowan were anywhere near on Mackenzie's top 32. After the top 10 ish, it's pretty wild how many players move up and down. Treliving and Wes Clark don't seem like they care about drafting for size or position based on their draft records so we'll see.

Brad Lambert last year was all over the place ranking wise, mainly with a lot of issues about consistency and work ethic. The Jets finally selected him 30th and he's doing great in the AHL as an 18 year old.

But yes I fully agree if they are equally valued prospects, size/position is obviously then a secondary aspect of it.

 

[AustonMarner]

I doubt it but I hope the Leafs can draft Carter Yakemchuk
Looks to have all the makings of a star imho and the exact profile of what Leafs need in their prospect pool = potential #1 6'3 RD

Carter Yakemchuk at eliteprospects.com

Eliteprospects.com hockey player profile of Carter Yakemchuk, 2005-09-29 Fort McMurray, AB, CAN Canada. Most recently in the WHL with Calgary Hitmen. Complete player biography and stats.

www.eliteprospects.com

 

[SprDaVE]

I doubt it but I hope the Leafs can draft Carter Yakemchuk
Looks to have all the makings of a star imho and the exact profile of what Leafs need in their prospect pool = potential #1 6'3 RD

Carter Yakemchuk at eliteprospects.com

Eliteprospects.com hockey player profile of Carter Yakemchuk, 2005-09-29 Fort McMurray, AB, CAN Canada. Most recently in the WHL with Calgary Hitmen. Complete player biography and stats.

www.eliteprospects.com

I've seen him all around the top 10 of the draft. I don't see why he would drop either.

 

[AustonMarner]

I've seen him all around the top 10 of the draft. I don't see why he would drop either.

A few prognosticators I've seen have him in the teens but I agree he'll likely go top 10...
He's one of the guy's I would target in a trade up if feasible

 

[Fogelhund]

Yakemchuk would be a great get, but I don't know how we'd achieve that.

The more I look at him, the more I like Michael Hage too.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

One of the players I'm interested in if we keep our pick or trade back. Big, mobile RD, with some nice puck skills and creativity.

 

[SprDaVE]

One of the players I'm interested in if we keep our pick or trade back. Big, mobile RD, with some nice puck skills and creativity.

Impressive package. You just sold me on someone to keep an eye on. He reminded me of Liljegren a bit in the way he skates and handles the puck.

He attacks the forward with the puck at the offensive blue line a ton it looks like, not something he'll be able to do often at the NHL level. But that shows an immense amount of confidence and skill to do even at that level instead of passing/dumping the puck.

Seems like quite the riser and serious contender for a good value pick late first round.

With all that said, that QC publication has Parekh 15th. Seems a little low for a record breaking first year eligible defenseman. His talent level is way too huge.

 

[Racer88]

I think Treliving made a terrible mistake not trading the pick to bolster the team. Hopefully, it turns out to be the right decision.

I’m of the other mindset, I think he did the right thing by not trading away our 1st and or prospects. This team as currently constructed and their lack of commitment is not worth going all in. They need to show they are worthy first

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Now that we still have our 1sr rd pk which I think will be the 22nd pk.

I think Treliving will trade back in the draft
Maybe with Calgary, Chicago or Montreal for there late 1st rd pk and ther late 2nd rd pk

Hopefully 2 of these dman fall in our lap
Mews
Elich
Ej Emery
Skahan

If Wes sees another Cowan scenario where we have a guy ranked higher on our board than most I would love to move back to pick up a late second rounder. That's assuming no one we really like or who's really good falls in our lap (*cough* Konecky). I'm not in favor of trading back just for the sake of trading back though.

 

[13pacheco31]

Average is 6 1.54, 203 lbs. He's 6'0" 185... Call it whatever you want, but in either case, wouldn't you agree that he really isn't what we need?


Sure, but like I've said, that's probably what we need, even if he hits.

No, but you don't draft based on need

 

[Fogelhund]

No, but you don't draft based on need

If you've read through this thread, which it appears you haven't, you'll see that I've repeated that if you have two prospects ranked very closely or the same, and one is in a position of need, and the other isn't, you take the one that is the need.

 

[francis246]

EJ Emery I think is a guy you take a flyer on. Needs some time to develop, especially handling the puck but he could be a very big defenseman that can play physical and skate.

Henry Mews is very skilled, see him similar to durzi.

 

[AustonMarner]

Henry Mews did a podcast a few days ago with an awkward youtuber, here's a quick synopsis;

-grew up in Ottawa, cheers for Sens, player he emulates is E.Karlsson, played a few years for Toronto Jr. Canadians
- Father is his idol (former professional)
- used to play foward and defense
- he believes his speed, offensive instincts and hockey iq are his greatest strengths
- he is focusing more on improving defense now (which would explain why some say he hasn't WOWED offensively so far this season)



Seems to be bilingual which is a sign of higher intelligence, here's Mews mic'd at skills challenge;

https://m.youtube.com/results?search_query=Henry+mews&sp=mAEA

I see a right handed Morgan Rielly
Mews will be at least a 2nd pairing D in the NHL
imho that's his likely potential but still room for growth

 

[4thline]

Set to go in with ~pick 23.

Could we reasonably hope to get 2 of with a 28-35 + 45-60 trade back? (and which ones)
Is there anyone that we can expect to be available that you would absolutely take over the pairs?

Mews
Elick
Emery
Sahlin Wallenius
Shuravin
Badinka
Roberts
Pulkinnen

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I'm interested in this draft because I'm interested to see what Treliving does at his first true draft as Leafs GM.

Yes I know he was hired before last years draft but It's possible Cowan would have been Dubas's guy anyway.

This will be Treliving guy.

That's assuming he keeps the pick, he might trade it for immediate help, I think that's a possibility especially if the rumours of Parayko being available are true, I could easily see him being a target.

Maybe he moves up.

Maybe he moves down, I hope not because that never works for us.

Maybe he just uses the pick.

Maybe he moves a guy like Jarnkrok to recoup a couple picks, I hope not because that's a good cheap depth player but It's also one he let walk.

Regardless he's got 20+ million in cap space I think this is the off season he truly puts his stamp on the team, and I'm intrigued by it.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I feel like with their insistence to hold the pick, there must be someone the scouting staff likes in that range.

 

[Stephen]

This is a conversation that happens every time the draft is near. Every time. It's not about drafting for what you need, it's about drafting the better player. If there's a "big" player available that projects to be great then sure... but removing options just because of what you need or their size is just bad for the team.

The balance doesn't really matter because that player is at least 2-4 years away from making any sort of impact at the NHL level at the minimum. In that time teams change -- players move on, players develop and players grow. What doesn't change is a need in drafting the best possible player at that time. We drafted Cowan despite having many "small skilled" players and many thought it was an overreach bad pick... and now he's untouchable. This is why you have trades and you have signings, to supplement your team in whatever it needs.

Mews is 7th in all of OHL D scoring -- 3rd among draft eligible D and the youngest of the group. I'm not sure I can take that seriously that his offense hasn't "exploded like many hoped" when he's obviously among the top of the scoring leaders among D on a pretty average team.

"Mews isn’t the most spectacular player you’ll ever see, but he’s the kind of very reliable two-way defenseman that coaches will feed minutes to. He’s very intelligent at both ends of the ice. He skates well and can both skate and pass pucks out of trouble."

"I can confidently say that Mews might have the highest upside out of any defencemen in the class. When breaking down every trait I look for in a young athlete, I struggle to find many flaws and things that Mews isn't capable of doing at an elite level. Henry has consistently been the best 2006-born defender in Ontario, along with Sam Dickinson, and I still think these two are far above the rest of the pack. They are very different players who will bring a different style of play to pro hockey, but both are elite in their own respects."

Here's an actual scouting report for Mews that I think it's a lot more fair that showcases a lot of great things he does but also the bad, which is definitely an issue and part of the reason he's ranked where he is:

2024 NHL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT (VIDEOS + GRADES): Henry Mews, D, Ottawa 67's, OHL

McKeen's Chace Rochon provides a detailed scouting report on 2024 NHL Draft prospect, Henry Mews with video and grades.

www.mckeenshockey.com

Broadly speaking. Drafting BPA can often be mistranslated or misapplied in a couple of predictable ways that turns into its own kind of selection bias. Particularly the way the Leafs have run things.

The highest value players in the draft are skilled, offensive and probably ideal pro size. From there you take a haircut on size or skill or skating. So if you’re not picking top 10-15 you might be looking at a high skill guy but has size limitations for his position or skating flaws that don’t line up with their offensive abilities.

Often this translates into a smaller finesse defenseman or maybe a fly weight forward, and biases against mid skill level, larger players the deeper you go in the draft. Or you to further down the junior tiers to get the best in that group vs someone mediocre at a higher level.

This BPA bias often turns into never solving your positional needs because you don’t inherently ever think about a 6’5” RHD. If you never prioritize something it never gets taken care of. I don’t inherently care about any of those depth and role positions but they’re just neglected and we see the flaw with that thinking with what we don’t have in the system.

 

[LaPlante94]

Michael Hage gonna make it to our pick? Would be a good pick if he did.

 

[SprDaVE]

Broadly speaking. Drafting BPA can often be mistranslated or misapplied in a couple of predictable ways that turns into its own kind of selection bias. Particularly the way the Leafs have run things.

The highest value players in the draft are skilled, offensive and probably ideal pro size. From there you take a haircut on size or skill or skating. So if you’re not picking top 10-15 you might be looking at a high skill guy but has size limitations for his position or skating flaws that don’t line up with their offensive abilities.

Often this translates into a smaller finesse defenseman or maybe a fly weight forward, and biases against mid skill level, larger players the deeper you go in the draft. Or you to further down the junior tiers to get the best in that group vs someone mediocre at a higher level.

This BPA bias often turns into never solving your positional needs because you don’t inherently ever think about a 6’5” RHD. If you never prioritize something it never gets taken care of. I don’t inherently care about any of those depth and role positions but they’re just neglected and we see the flaw with that thinking with what we don’t have in the system.

Ultimately it's nitpicking about who you'd prefer to pick. I don't think anyone is suggesting to not draft a 6'5" RHD if they are deemed like having projectable potential. The suggestion is to not to draft a 5'11"/6' winger/defenseman based on that reasoning just because we might have 1 too many of that size now instead of just trying to draft a player that could project towards the NHL in 2-5 years at the highest level possible. I'd rather have my team draft from a pool of players that doesn't have red flags just because they aren't 6'5" or whatever size is deemed appropriate. A balance is always nice to strive towards but hardly a concern to me at the draft table.

Sometimes it's a little luck and about the right opportunity to do so, not to go out of your way to do it.

Like the Leafs probably could have drafted Nico Myatovic (6'3" LW) last year instead of Easton Cowan (5'11" LW). Based on needs, it was probably a pick many would have made here, right? Good thing they didn't.

 

[SprDaVE]

Michael Hage gonna make it to our pick? Would be a good pick if he did.

Seems like a favourite to go mid 1st round but it's possible. He'd be a very good one.

 

[Menzinger]

Broadly speaking. Drafting BPA can often be mistranslated or misapplied in a couple of predictable ways that turns into its own kind of selection bias. Particularly the way the Leafs have run things.

The highest value players in the draft are skilled, offensive and probably ideal pro size. From there you take a haircut on size or skill or skating. So if you’re not picking top 10-15 you might be looking at a high skill guy but has size limitations for his position or skating flaws that don’t line up with their offensive abilities.

Often this translates into a smaller finesse defenseman or maybe a fly weight forward, and biases against mid skill level, larger players the deeper you go in the draft. Or you to further down the junior tiers to get the best in that group vs someone mediocre at a higher level.

This BPA bias often turns into never solving your positional needs because you don’t inherently ever think about a 6’5” RHD. If you never prioritize something it never gets taken care of. I don’t inherently care about any of those depth and role positions but they’re just neglected and we see the flaw with that thinking with what we don’t have in the system.

The problem with the other approach is you may have an organizational need for that 6'5 RHD, but if none of your available eye test or statistical data suggest that particular player has a hugh chance of turning into a top four guy, you're basically relying on luck to do it's job.

Take 2016 for example. The Leafs went into left field with their first 2nd round pick option, taking potential power forward in Korshkov (despite there not being much statistical data supporting the move). In turn passing on small skilled winger with DeBrincat.

Imo it's best to use picks near the top of the draft on players you have a firmer grasp of their potential. Which I'd agree does bias towards skill/finesse guys,. though over time you're more likely to end up with more tangible NHL assets this way.

And with the caveat that things get more complicated if two very different players have very similar potential based on the available data

 

[TMLife17]

The problem with the other approach is you may have an organizational need for that 6'5 RHD, but if none of your available eye test or statistical data suggest that particular player has a hugh chance of turning into a top four guy, you're basically relying on luck to do it's job.

Take 2016 for example. The Leafs went into left field with their first 2nd round pick option, taking potential power forward in Korshkov (despite there not being much statistical data supporting the move). In turn passing on small skilled winger with DeBrincat.

Imo it's best to use picks near the top of the draft on players you have a firmer grasp of their potential. Which I'd agree does bias towards skill/finesse guys,. though over time you're more likely to end up with more tangible NHL assets this way.

And with the caveat that things get more complicated if two very different players have very similar potential based on the available data

Korshkov is developing perfectly. He will hop over in two years and bring us across the line! It’s a long term plan. Trust the process