League News: 2023 NHL Trade Deadline Thread

[ClevelandCapsfan]

For those keeping track.

Ridiculous overpay by Bolts.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

This is what I thought as well. They're late round picks this year, and then the higher picks phase in over 2 years. A lot more uncertainty wrt the draft as the years go on, and you never know where in the round those higher picks will fall which lessens their value some, potentially. Or raises it. But the uncertainty itself changes the value.

Yep, people give too much weight to the round of a pick as opposed to where within the round the pick occurs. The third round pick Preds got this year from TB could very well be a pick in the late 80s of this year's draft, and the second round next year could be in the late 50s or early 60s, aka crap shoot territory.

Still though, a nice haul by Poile for an undrafted player. Made up for the Niederriter trade which I thought they did not get enough return on.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Ridiculous overpay by Bolts.

Or ridiculous underpayment to the caps?

Yep, people give too much weight to the round of a pick as opposed to where within the round the pick occurs. The third round pick Preds got this year from TB could very well be a pick in the late 80s of this year's draft, and the second round next year could be in the late 50s or early 60s, aka crap shoot territory.

So getting the worst possible 1st rounder this year is Ok? I think I’m more upset about no prospects being added even if it’s junk it just seems lazy.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Or ridiculous underpayment to the caps?


So getting the worst possible 1st rounder this year is Ok? I think I’m more upset about no prospects being added even if it’s junk it just seems lazy.

We'll have to see if it's the worst 1st rounder, there's that President's Cup curse we are only too well familiar with.

BTW let's see what the return is for Gavrikov before we see if it was a poor return. Right now there's been very little trades involving defenseman so it's tough to gauge.

 

[Langway]

I read a comment on the Jeannot trade that this was essentially TBL admitting the East goes through Boston this year and thinking longer-term. And I think that's true. But to give up those assets when their blueline is so suspect is puzzling. Hard to figure how in the near-term they're able to put pieces in place to be competitive enough defensively. They've had some good luck cobbling together options like Schenn, Bogosian and the like over the years but hard to believe that's enough.

In addition they only have about $10M in cap space next season to fill eight or nine spots. So something will need to give. Will they have to move out Cernak or Sergachev? Stamkos? Jeannot's cap value could be decent but it also seems like a luxury item. Their checking line was key but so was having an adequate defense.

 

[YippieKaey]

Most of Siberia (i.e. where people live, including Orlov, is warmer than Edmonton.

There's even a famous clip of Bryzgalov complaining about the temps in Edmonton.

That's not true for Orlovs hometown. Average and lowest temperatures are both lower in Orlovs hometown than Edmonton.

Bryzgalov is from Samara in southern Russia.

 

[twabby]

Good players can have bad years I guess, but do good players really put up a year like this:

I don’t know. It’s hard for me to believe in a player when he’s already 25 and his only good season was one fueled by shooting 20%.

It’s not really the quantity of picks TB gave up that surprised me. It’s that Jeannot got a first round pick at all.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Thursday should be a truth telling day for this team.
-Either we have some UFA extended. And let’s see what those contracts look like.
-We sell the FA and get futures
-Sit on our hands

It might end up being a mix of all 3

 

[twabby]

I’d lean toward re-signing Johansson at this point. Hard to believe he’s going to fetch much at the TDL, and he’s actually a very good power play specialist for this team.

Jensen really depends on the return he’s likely to get. I’d try to keep him if he won’t get more than a second round pick.

Get what you can for Eller, Sheary, Smith.

No idea about TVR and Gustafsson. Can see merits for keeping one or either, or trading both.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

I’d lean toward re-signing Johansson at this point. Hard to believe he’s going to fetch much at the TDL, and he’s actually a very good power play specialist for this team.

Jensen really depends on the return he’s likely to get. I’d try to keep him if he won’t get more than a second round pick.

Get what you can for Eller, Sheary, Smith.

No idea about TVR and Gustafsson. Can see merits for keeping one or either, or trading both.

You hesitate to make a prediction regarding where players will end up because as soon as you do you're proven wrong, but I agree with you on MAJO. He's had a decent year, still has the wheels and I really believe that he wants to finish his career with the Capitals and his buddy Backstrom. He's somewhat versatile in moving up and down the line up and he's the best currently on the team at PP entries.

Jensen is another one that I could see remaining with the Capitals. Since BMAC used the 3 year contract extension with Orlov, would have to assume that's the formula to be used with the other pending UFAs to include Jensen. Jensen's good buddy Dowd is on the team, so get the feeling he wants to stay, but we'll see.

As far as suggestions of Orlov and/or Hathaway returning after this season, forget that. That ain't happening. Bruins win the cup, both of their stock values will increase significantly. I've used the Jay Beagle scenario before regarding Hathaway as he'll recognize that this coming off season will be his best and probably last opportunity for him to get a good pay day. With Orlov, I just don't see him coming back as I don't see BMAC or Orlov changing their tunes as far as term.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Sheary and Eller probably on their ways out.

 

[895]

Anything more than a 3rd for each and I'll be very happy

 

[YippieKaey]

Out of the FAs rumoured to go i hope they keep Gus and maybe Sheary depending on AAV. Value players with solid production (Sheary at least at the beginning of the year).

 

[ClevelandCapsfan]

Anything more than a 3rd for each and I'll be very happy

Gustafsson should garner a 2nd and a prospect.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Sheary and Eller probably on their ways out.

There's replacement pieces in the pipeline at Hershey for Eller and Sheary, plus if they resign Brown.

The D is a different story, hence the hesitancy in moving them. Still come Friday, if no D is moved, BMAC needs to insist on Lavy giving AA minutes. McILrath and Irwin have been rewarded enough.

 

[ClevelandCapsfan]

From ESPN+ (I subscribe so am posting an interesting article on TDL rules for GMs). An excerpt is posted at the beginning for the enjoyment of posters.

It wasn't a lopsided trade at the time. "Fleecings" mostly happen in hindsight, barring the occasional mistake made out of desperation. (I'd still love to know what David Poile's exact reaction was when the Capitals said "yes" to Filip Forsberg for Martin Erat in 2013.)

 

[Marshall]

48:10 mark of latest 32 Thoughts Podcast has Caps deadline analysis.

 

[twabby]

https://www.washingtonhockeynow.com/2023/02/27/washington-capitals-report-open-business-2023-nhl-trade-deadline

With the trade deadline days away, the Washington Capitals have reportedly made the rest of the league aware of their approach, and it looks like almost anything goes.

Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman shared in his new episode of the 32 Thoughts podcast that general manager Brian MacLellan sent an email about his pending unrestricted free agents and let all other 31 teams know that there's a lot for sale.

"He's open for business, and teams know he means it and they're all calling him," Friedman said.

MacLellan has also been negotiating with his UFAs, asking them what they want going into the future. He mentioned that the Dmitry Orlov trade arose out of a deal becoming "impossible" between both sides, and now there's discussion around the other defensemen, including Nick Jensen, who the team is still trying to sign but at the same time, is garnering a lot of attention from other clubs.


"Jensen, there's quite a few teams with interest," Friedman said, citing the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators as two of the suitors. "So I think what MacLellan is doing right now -- the decision was made on Orlov, and now I think he’s making a decision: is there a deal to be made here or am i moving on?"

In addition to Jensen, defensemen Erik Gustafsson, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Matt Irwin and Dylan McIlrath, along with forwards Lars Eller, Conor Sheary, Marcus Johansson and Nicolas Aube-Kubel, are all set to hit free agency. Martin Fehervary and Alex Alexeyev are RFAs.

The Dallas Stars and New Jersey Devils also had reported interest in Eller.

Friedman also added that the team is considering big-name defenseman Jakob Chychrun to come in and help the team, but that it will be costly to pull off and will take a lot of future assets, with examples being Connor McMichael and Hendrix Lapierre. MacLellan is apparently weighing the pros and cons of potentially dealing players like that away for Chychrun or keeping those players in the system.

"They're weighing that too. 'Do we trade most of our assets for one player?' That’s something they are considering," Friedman said, adding, "It’s not only considering chychrun, it’s considering is that the best [plan]."

It's still tough for me to get behind trading for Chychrun. It's more about opportunity cost than anything. If they are going to trade Boston's first and one of Lapierre/McMichael I think they need to take a bigger swing than a #2D/#3D whose strengths aren't really in transition offense or playmaking from the backend.

Chychrun would be a perfect fit on a team like Edmonton or Colorado for instance, but I don't think his strengths match up well with the weaknesses of Washington's forwards.

 

[crazy8888]

https://www.washingtonhockeynow.com/2023/02/27/washington-capitals-report-open-business-2023-nhl-trade-deadline

It's still tough for me to get behind trading for Chychrun. It's more about opportunity cost than anything. If they are going to trade Boston's first and one of Lapierre/McMichael I think they need to take a bigger swing than a #2D/#3D whose strengths aren't really in transition offense or playmaking from the backend.

Chychrun would be a perfect fit on a team like Edmonton or Colorado for instance, but I don't think his strengths match up well with the weaknesses of Washington's forwards.

Who do you have in mind that is worth a 1st and one of our top prospects?

 

[max21]

I’d almost forgotten about Jeannot since last year, everyone was hyping him up to be the next Wilson. GMs literally love any sort of big, power forward with any kind of scoring touch. Wilson is just in his own class, think of the return we’d get for him.

 

[twabby]

Who do you have in mind that is worth a 1st and one of our top prospects?

Erik Karlsson with some retention. Maybe a 1C somehow becomes available in the offseason, though I don't know who it'd be. My dream scenario is that Pettersson gets fed up with Vancouver's dysfunction and demands out, but that's a pipe dream in all likelihood.

Washington can't have it both ways. If they are looking to be competitive the next three years then they pretty much box themselves into needing incredibly high upside players rather than more consistent, steadier options like Chychrun. They already have/had that with Orlov and Jensen and as good as they are they aren't enough to make the team competitive due to the poor play of the top-end forwards on the team.

 

[Calicaps]

Erik Karlsson with some retention. Maybe a 1C somehow becomes available in the offseason, though I don't know who it'd be. My dream scenario is that Pettersson gets fed up with Vancouver's dysfunction and demands out, but that's a pipe dream in all likelihood.

Washington can't have it both ways. If they are looking to be competitive the next three years then they pretty much box themselves into needing incredibly high upside players rather than more consistent, steadier options like Chychrun. They already have/had that with Orlov and Jensen and as good as they are they aren't enough to make the team competitive due to the poor play of the top-end forwards on the team.

I truly don't get this obsession. The goal is to get younger and faster. GMBM has said exactly this. EK is not that. And the likelihood of him repeating this year given his overall career and age is slim at best.

 

[Langway]

Sheary has basically played his way out of an extension despite being given every advantage. Time to move on.

EDM was another team linked to Jensen. Eller to DAL/NJD has been consistent but McLeod seems like a decent quick, developing 4C for NJD. A straight swap? I wonder if they won't look for swaps like that in some situations. Logan Stanley is another guy in Winnipeg that I wonder about. Younger players on cheaper deals that have fallen out of favor as a scratch-off. Probably more useful than a third or later.

Friedman suggests teams (probably TOR) believe it's a buyer's market on D due to a surplus. Probably true, esp. with talk Ekholm may also move. I have to think Chychrun also may be holding up the market (and to some extent causing teams to pivot to Ekholm and others).

 

[Cappy76]

EK has had 1 season in the last 5 that’s been what he is right now could just be and outlier. And if not could it be that he and Burns couldn’t coexist offensively? How would he work with Carlson then?

I’d not at all be willing to pay the price for EK with his current out of this world production after being dormant for so long. Just begs for regression next season.

 

[g00n]

I’d almost forgotten about Jeannot since last year, everyone was hyping him up to be the next Wilson. GMs literally love any sort of big, power forward with any kind of scoring touch. Wilson is just in his own class, think of the return we’d get for him.

Wilson would probably net 2 firsts, a top prospect or two, a few late round picks, and whatever shit the GM has rattling around in his office desk drawer.