2023 NHL Entry Draft Thread (June 28-29, Nashville, TN) -- Who is your choice at 3rd?

Who do we choose?

  • Fantilli

    Votes: 23 11.4%
  • Carlsson

    Votes: 138 68.3%
  • Smith

    Votes: 19 9.4%
  • other

    Votes: 6 3.0%
  • Michkov

    Votes: 16 7.9%

  • Total voters
    202
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KJ Dangler

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Here’s from the Athletic today …

What about at No. 2? Is Adam Fantilli a slam dunk to be the next player selected, or could we see a 2022-style curveball at the top of the draft order this year?

Fantilli is the consensus second overall pick in 2023, but Carlsson, the rangy Swedish forward, and US National Development Team forward Will Smith appear to be barging their way into consideration in the top three. Our sample of four scouts is small, so this is hardly scientific, but we were struck by the extent to which the debate between Fantilli and Carlsson was an active one for our panel.

Scout 3: First of all, Fantilli and Carlsson are both really good players. If we were talking about last year, I think either Bedard, Fantilli or Carlsson would’ve gone first overall. All three of the top guys are better than the top of the draft class last year

Scout 4: All three are exceptional prospects, and they’d have all gone No. 1 overall last year. Without question. Like, I think you might have to get to pick 6 or 7 before you’d find a player who wouldn’t have been the consensus No. 1 overall pick last year. It’s probably the best top-10 we’ve seen since 2015.

Scout 1: For Fantilli, he was above expectations for me this season. And not that I thought his transition wasn’t going to be successful, I just didn’t see a Hobey Baker.

That (disappointing) world juniors was the outlier. The body, the speed, the compete (are excellent). I know he had awesome production but I think that came more from his compete level than his hockey sense, but that’s not going to hurt him. He has a similar game at the same age and probably a little better than (Quinton) Byfield.


That said, Carlsson is No. 2 for me. I think he’ll be a centre at the next level. When you compare him and Fantilli, Carlsson has superior hockey sense. Carlsson doesn’t have the same pace, he doesn’t play with the same frenetic motor, but he’s like a (Anze) Kopitar with the two-way brain, size and he’s going to make his linemates better. I think the high side is higher than with Fantilli.

Scout 2: The top three in the draft are elite players who process the game at a high level. Bedard is obviously No. 1 but (the gap between Bedard and Carlsson) is probably closer than a lot of people may think.

Bedard has been so big in world juniors and sort of that international stage over the last couple of years where it gives him the bright lights of stardom, but Carlsson is a dynamic player in his own right and probably isn’t getting enough credit for how good he is

Scout 3: For me, honestly, it’s a very good debate between No. 2 and No. 3. I think Carlsson at the end of the day might be the best pick at second overall.

Now is he the second best prospect in the draft class today? No. And I think it would be hard to argue that Carlsson is more advanced than Adam Fantilli right now, but Carlsson is potentially a 6-foot-3, first-line centreman and I wonder if Fantilli might be more inclined to play the wing going forward.

I love Carlsson and I don’t think you’re seeing everything that he can do just yet. Down the road he may be the second best player in this class, heck, he could be the best player in this class down the road — I don’t know. When you get a 6-foot-3 player with his size and skill, that’s very hard to find.

Fantilli has more power, more north-south in his game. His motor and work ethic is through the roof. I’d give the hockey sense edge to Carlsson, however, between those two guys. That said, like Bedard, Fantilli has had a year that speaks for itself. You can’t take away from what he did and it’s hard not to reward him with the No. 2 spot on your list. His performance has been absolutely outstanding

Heres a blurb from Scott Wheeler

Don’t fret, Blue Jackets fans​

Falling out of the top two, and losing out on Bedard and likely Fantilli after the misery of this season, with all of its injuries and disappointment, has to sting for the Blue Jackets. But it could have been worse: They could have fallen two spots to fourth. And there’s one thing the Blue Jackets needed above all else with this pick: a talented, high-end center to pair with their many talented wingers (Gaudreau, Marchenko, Patrik Laine, Kent Johnson, etc.). And at third, they’re still promised that. There’s still a small chance they get Fantilli, and there’s a guarantee if they don’t that they’ll have a choice between Carlsson and Smith, two players who I also believe have 1C upside
 

Nanabijou

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Dec 22, 2009
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That's a great post from the Athletic.

Yeah, I was pissed off that Chicago won. But time to move on, I'm very happy that we'll get a potential 1C. I wasn't expecting the team to be this bad this year but at the end of the day, it seems like this was a good year to finish in the bottom few with a great top end of the draft.

I'll try to watch Fantilli and Carlsson this weekend to get my own views. But, I'm glad we are at 3 instead of 4, it gives our scouts a better chance to pick the player they think is best rather than the one left remaining.
 

Double-Shift Lasse

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So yesterday I was upset. Didn't feel like putting that into words, just reacting.

This morning I'm giving it some thought and, I'm not upset that I was "wrong" about the Jackets winning the lottery. Not upset about not being able to manifest the hoped-for result. Not even upset at the notion that all is lost - I know we're still going to get a good player.

Nope, I'm just really disappointed at the real excitement that winning the lottery and drafting Connor Bedard would have generated. And, personally, that I would have felt about the team and the city and the league, after a long and unpleasant season. There have been precious few times like that in CBJ history, and I really thought maybe we could have one here. It wasn't even so much that the undeserving Hawks won, but that we didn't.

I'll get over it. I'm certainly not going anywhere. I was just discouraged.


And I still think the hockey gods can eat shit.
 

kelsier

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Aug 17, 2013
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Leo Carlsson and it's not up for debate if Fantili is gone. Carlsson has the two important attributes that cannot be taught, hockey IQ and size. You can work for everything else and improve your weaknesses. Some here seem to be worried about his speed and shot but those don't concern me much at this point. Just take a look at Barkov for example who was anything but a good skater in his draft year or Rantanen who wasn't much of a goal scorer or shooter and now is pretty elite.

I don't really even get the fascination some people here have for Fantili who are willing to give up prospects and 1st round picks just to jump up a spot. Yes, he has much better motor and better shot than Leo and I would probably too lean on him with 2nd overall. But at the same time I think Leo has better vision and hockey IQ and all things considered I think he makes more exotic pick as well. I might give up like a second or third rounder for 2 OA just because Fantili is the safer pick but nothing more than that.

I watched the Finland vs USA game in WJHC and was hugely impressed with Smith. Got a feeling he's going to be fantastic player. Looks like a lock after Michkov but I wouldn't take him in top4 based on the u18 championships alone. We've seen a lot of guys do well in that competition or even dominated it (like Puljujärvi f.ex.) that were unable to become much anything in the NHL level.

Fast forward in the future and we'll remember that we had 13,5% chance of landing Bedard in 2023 and came out with very good consolation price with Carlsson. This team is looking so good going into the future and this pick should pretty much be the last crucial piece in the rebuild.
 

Jive Pawnbroker

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Feb 18, 2009
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gotta give major credit and props to @Viqsi for continously saying that there was no way the jackets would get 1st OA, and she was right.

most disrespected franchise in the entire league? yup.. you guessed it, us.

Getting trolled by ESPN before they even turned our card was the dingleberry on top of the shit sundae we were dealt last night.

I guess I should be thankful the Jackets fell only one spot vs two.
 

BB88

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Jan 19, 2015
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We shall see .. I think Carlsson has a chance to play his way into the pick if he plays center , and thrives in the WC. Yes, I get it’s different competition, but I don’t think he’s near the offensive player Will Smith is at this point . Smiths vision is elite , and his shot is way better than Carlson’s .

Carlsson has been ranked all year ahead of Smith untill the u18’s.

He just has to remind the scouts what he’s about and it’s an ”easy” pick.
 

Monk

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Feb 5, 2008
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Probably been said ad nauseum already here and elsewhere, but I have to say it again - f*** Chicago. Took a quick peek at my phone last night, said "f*** Chicago" and forgot about it until now.

f*** Chicago.

With that part out of the way, I'm pretty damn excited for whichever player is highest on the team's draft list. Sounds like I should mostly start watching some Carlsson/Fantilli/Smith.
 

alphafox

Registered User
Jun 14, 2011
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So yesterday I was upset. Didn't feel like putting that into words, just reacting.

This morning I'm giving it some thought and, I'm not upset that I was "wrong" about the Jackets winning the lottery. Not upset about not being able to manifest the hoped-for result. Not even upset at the notion that all is lost - I know we're still going to get a good player.

Nope, I'm just really disappointed at the real excitement that winning the lottery and drafting Connor Bedard would have generated. And, personally, that I would have felt about the team and the city and the league, after a long and unpleasant season. There have been precious few times like that in CBJ history, and I really thought maybe we could have one here. It wasn't even so much that the undeserving Hawks won, but that we didn't.

I'll get over it. I'm certainly not going anywhere. I was just discouraged.


And I still think the hockey gods can eat shit.
Maybe I'm too jaded, but I could never bring myself to actually believe that any of the small market teams had a chance. There is way too much money on the table when it comes to a generational guy like Bedard for him to go to a team like ours or the Ducks or Sharks. The Jersey sales alone by making sure he goes to an established/premier hockey market is enough incentive to make sure that happens, let alone all the other revenue increases putting him in Chicago results in. At this point if I'm a small market team, I'm pushing for an NFL-style draft. The worst team is guaranteed #1 OA, period we already have the absolute tank jobs happening every year that the lottery is supposed to prevent and all the lottery does is allow the NHL to put a thumb on the scale.
 

CBJx614

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Carlsson chosen for team Sweden..

Josef Boumedienne is Sweden's AGM. People here might know him as the Jackets Director of Professional Scouting...
Came here to post this.

Safe to say that the Jackets know Carlsson intimately. If he's available at 3, I think he's a lock.
 

KJ Dangler

Registered User
Oct 21, 2006
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Carlsson has been ranked all year ahead of Smith untill the u18’s.

He just has to remind the scouts what he’s about and it’s an ”easy” pick.
I hear you.. I think this tournament will determine if he’s our pick, or Will Smith is the pick . Many times these list are just that , most are recycled talking points . Look at Logan Cooley last year . All we heard was Shane Wright. Thing is, players develop at different phases. I will be ok with Smith or Carlsson .. personally , I think Smith is much more skilled , others see it differently and that’s ok .
 

stevo61

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Jul 5, 2011
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I hear you.. I think this tournament will determine if he’s our pick, or Will Smith is the pick . Many times these list are just that , most are recycled talking points . Look at Logan Cooley last year . All we heard was Shane Wright. Thing is, players develop at different phases. I will be ok with Smith or Carlsson .. personally , I think Smith is much more skilled , others see it differently and that’s ok .
Id say hes flashier skilled amd Carlsson is more translatable skill, so while its not always as appealing to the eye I think it will be much more effective. Its cool hes putting up big numbers against his peers on a stacked line but Carlsson has already produced to the U20's, in a mens league playoffs and is about to play in the WC pressumably as a center. Thats all crazy for an 18 year old and his biggest weaknesses are simple mechanics that are much more easily fixed than most other hockey skills that he does possess
 

tunnelvision

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@KJ Dangler I think this was also relevant info in the story:
To get a sense of the industry view of the apex of the 2023 draft class, we reached out to a quartet of veteran amateur talent evaluators from across the league. In order to have these NHL amateur scouts speak freely on the matter, we’ve made sure to only feature scouts from teams that weren’t part of the 2023 NHL Draft Lottery process and we’ve granted them anonymity. We’ll identify these scouts solely as Scout 1, Scout 2, Scout 3 and Scout 4. Some quotes have been edited for readability or clarity.
 

DarkandStormy

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I would be asking Anaheim if they'd like the 3rd overall pick, Roslovic, and the 23rd pick (L.A.'s) for 2nd overall. They have Zegras and MacTavish down the middle, so in theory they don't "need" Fantilli and could trade down to take Michkov or one of the centers that's a year away. Roslovic would be their "stop gap" until said draftee is ready.

Highly unlikely to happen, but it'd be worth a shot.

Fantilli if Anaheim goes with Michkov at 2. Carlsson otherwise.

So knowing this team, they'll take Smith.
 

BB88

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Jan 19, 2015
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I hear you.. I think this tournament will determine if he’s our pick, or Will Smith is the pick . Many times these list are just that , most are recycled talking points . Look at Logan Cooley last year . All we heard was Shane Wright. Thing is, players develop at different phases. I will be ok with Smith or Carlsson .. personally , I think Smith is much more skilled , others see it differently and that’s ok .

But Carlsson has just kept getting better and better?

& he had one of the best offensive seasons Swedish player has had in the SHL so questioning his offense feels a bit weird.

Carlsson has basically everything you’d want from your franchise C prospect and if he can handle the mens WC it should be a lock

I would be asking Anaheim if they'd like the 3rd overall pick, Roslovic, and the 23rd pick (L.A.'s) for 2nd overall. They have Zegras and MacTavish down the middle, so in theory they don't "need" Fantilli and could trade down to take Michkov or one of the centers that's a year away. Roslovic would be their "stop gap" until said draftee is ready.

Highly unlikely to happen, but it'd be worth a shot.

Fantilli if Anaheim goes with Michkov at 2. Carlsson otherwise.

So knowing this team, they'll take Smith.

Why would you trade Carlsson+ top 3/4 Dman for Fantilli?
 
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CBJx614

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Sorta like what the people said about Puljujärvi

That intimacy can cut both ways
To be fair. Puljujarvi had Laine and Aho helping him put up insane numbers, at least in his international play. But I get what you're saying.
 
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GoJackets1

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Smith might indeed be more skilled than Carlsson. But I’ll maintain that we already have a Smith, in Johnson. We don’t need 2 Johnson’s. Carlsson/Johnson will be a perfect top 6 C combo. If it’s Smith/Johnson, where will the defense come from on those lines?

Also, I find it kind of funny that I’ve seen 8-10 mentions of Carlson’s skating, and maybe one of Smith’s skating- which, again, is way worse than Carlsson’s.
 

CBJx614

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Why would you trade Carlsson+ top 3/4 Dman for Fantilli?
Yeah I don't get these proposals. It's a terrible waste of assets when we're still getting a top end 1C when we have major holes to fill both defensively and in net. It takes away having a plethora of assets to make a move without really hurting the current team.

Smith might indeed be more skilled than Carlsson. But I’ll maintain that we already have a Smith, in Johnson. We don’t need 2 Johnson’s. Carlsson/Johnson will be a perfect top 6 C combo. If it’s Smith/Johnson, where will the defense come from on those lines?

Also, I find it kind of funny that I’ve seen 8-10 mentions of Carlson’s skating, and maybe one of Smith’s skating- which, again, is way worse than Carlsson’s.
From what I've read skating is one of Carlssons strong suits and it still has the ability to get even better as he skates standing up pretty high. If he can fill out and get stronger on his skates he's going to be impossible to get bumped off the puck.
 

cbjthrowaway

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i definitely prefer the idea of leo carlsson to will smith, but i think people here are sleeping on smith and what he could become in a big way.

1. carlsson fits what the team needs now, but it's also very clear that the jackets are going to make some major changes this summer – including behind the bench – so maybe those needs change.

2. i'm not convinced that carlsson is ready to jump into the NHL right away – especially at center, since he hasn't really played there, so he and smith have the same ETA in my mind. the NCAA one-and-done path has had some big success stories lately.

3. normally positional value (center > defense > wing) is the tiebreaker when drafting, but since they're picking between two centers and it's a top five pick, i think upside has to be the consideration.

4. if you look at top 10 picks in recent drafts, most of those big guys are useful NHL players (kakko, dach, byfield) but the big stars have been smaller skill guys (hughes, zegras, stutzle). as a prospect i think leo carlsson is similar to (pre-draft) nolan patrick, quinton byfield or shane wright whereas will smith is in the tim stutzle, elias pettersson or logan cooley mold.
 

Monk

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To be fair. Puljujarvi had Laine and Aho helping him put up insane numbers, at least in his international play. But I get what you're saying.

Ultimately it means to me if they DO pick Carlsson, I'll feel pretty good that they're making an informed decision. Likewise if they don't. It's good to have familiarity for sure, just dunno that it's an indicator of what they'll do.
 

Cyclones Rock

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I would like to see the top 5 lists for the last 5-10 drafts for every "expert" who says player A should be taken over player B.

Part of me thinks that these so-called "experts" should be held in the same esteem as I hold the paid shills who do between races "analysis" at horse racing tracks. Or political analyst election predictors. Unless somebody's past record of prognostication is known-and to be considered "expert" that should go without saying-who really cares what they say about any particular player in the draft and where they should be drafted.

I have no idea who the CBJ should take. Which probably gives me the same chance of picking the right one as the "experts".
 
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