Unholy Diver
Registered User
Go on?
Did you see the post where Badgley is 13-24 from 45-50 yards?
There is risk in both situations.
The Lions need to get a better kicker
Go on?
Did you see the post where Badgley is 13-24 from 45-50 yards?
There is risk in both situations.
Turns out it's super easy to decide plays using hindsight.Careful, stats don't matter in this thread cause that 49ers D is so good man!
(Lions had been dominating on offense all day)
Turns out it's super easy to decide plays using hindsight.
Oh, I'm sure it comes down to your not being a casual. That's probably it.Casual football fans likely didn’t recognize the coaching mistakes as they were occurring, but I can assure you there was ZERO hindsight required from anywho understands the game.
Other than a few contrarian media shills and some Madden ‘23 video gamers, virtually every single player, coach and executive ripped Campbell’s terrible gambles.
I could understand if the opinion was somewhat split, but when the people actually involved with football are in universal agreement that it was two terrible mistakes, you lose all credibility trying so hard to defend Campbell’s incompetence.
People view field goals as near automatic for some reason. I suppose the last time a kicker missed a field goal from that distance was several in-game minutes earlier, so it's easy to forget.So basically he passed up a 55% chance at getting no points in favor of a 25% chance at getting no points and people can't get over themselves.
It's just objectively the right call.
So basically he passed up a 55% chance at getting no points in favor of a 25% chance at getting no points and people can't get over themselves.
It's just objectively the right call.
What the hell are you talking about. They have a 75% conversion rate, what they do after doesn't matter.You don’t understand how probabilities work, do you?
Having a 75% chance of converting the 4th down still means you’ve still got to either score a touchdown or a FG to get points.
What’s the probability of a turnover? What’s the probability of getting penalized and getting pushed out of FG range? What’s the probability of getting sacked out of FG range?
Multiply all of those probabilities and then you’ll see how asinine those decisions were.
What the hell are you talking about. They have a 75% conversion rate, what they do after doesn't matter.
The FG attempt has a 45% conversion rate.
Those are the only two probabilities that matter on that play.
Saying they shouldn't go for it because there's a chance they might turn it over afterwards is honestly one the stupidest things ever written on the Internet.
I don't think Dan trusts his kickerDamn that was a rough one. kick the damn field goal dan. totally gave back momentum to the 9ers. what a bad decision. smh. oh well it was a fun game and a great season. disappointing it ended on a coaches ego as the players played well.
You have a 75% chance to convert the 4th down.Having a 75% probability of converting on 4th and 2 does not mean they have a 75% probability of scoring a touchdown.
And since the primary objective in football is to outscore the other team, points are important.
So while converting the 4th down gamble would be wonderful, getting points from the drive is the ultimate goal.
Which means you have to factor in the myriad variables that would prevent points from being achieved even if they realize that 75% probability of converting the 4th down.
You seem very confused by this.
I understand conditional probabilities. In fact, I understand them so well that I know that you can't just multiply those probabilities.You don’t understand how probabilities work, do you?
Having a 75% chance of converting the 4th down still means you’ve still got to either score a touchdown or a FG to get points.
What’s the probability of a turnover? What’s the probability of getting penalized and getting pushed out of FG range? What’s the probability of getting sacked out of FG range?
Multiply all of those probabilities and then you’ll see how asinine those decisions were.
Also funny that no one is complaining about Campbell going for it on 4th and goal from the 3 at the end of the game when they could have “taken the points” and tried the same onside kick. But it worked out so no one is complaining about it, which tells you all you need to know about how logically grounded those complaints actually are.
You can’t be serious with that comment.
Trying to compare the difference between being up by 14 midway through the 3rdQ to being down by 10 with a minute remaining in the game is like comparing apples to roller coasters.
You should be comparing the 4th and 2 at the end of the 1stH with the 4th and 2 in the 3rdQ both instances they were up by 14.
I commented on this immediately and pointed out how inconsistent Campbell’s decision making was. Like calling a running play for St Brown on 3rd and 4.
It was an all round terrible day for Campbell’s play calling.
I agree it was a bit inconsistent, but it’s entirely consistent if he doesn’t really trust his kicker from mid 40s or further.
A FG from the 3 is basically a guarantee. A FG from the 40 or wherever it was is maybe 75% at best with that kicker (likely lower)
The comparison is that in both situations he was trying to maximize the chances of winning. At the end he determined that it was a better option to go for a TD on 4th down and then try for a FG after the onside kick than to kick a FG then and try for a TD after the onside kick.
If the “take the points” crowd is being logically consistent, they should have been upset that Campbell didn’t kick the FG to take the “guaranteed” points and then try for a TD after the onside kick instead of going for the TD on 4th down and potentially losing the game even before an onside kick.
Campbell doesn’t call plays.You can’t be serious with that comment.
Trying to compare the difference between being up by 14 midway through the 3rdQ to being down by 10 with a minute remaining in the game is like comparing apples to roller coasters.
You should be comparing the 4th and 2 at the end of the 1stH with the 4th and 2 in the 3rdQ both instances they were up by 14.
I commented on this immediately and pointed out how inconsistent Campbell’s decision making was. Like calling a running play for St Brown on 3rd and 4.
It was an all round terrible day for Campbell’s play calling.
1.) the kicker did give a reason not to trust him. In fact they had cut the kicker and wanted to move on because he wasn’t good enough. The issue is that the replacement guy was even worse so they had to bring him back partway through the season. The reason he was on the team is because he was the least bad of the bad options they had.Once again, it comes down to making decisions based on the flow of the game and the situation in that moment.
Keyshawn made a great point in saying that you have to trust your kicker until he gives you reason not to trust him. Because if you don’t trust him, why do you have him on the team?
That’s coming from a former player who understands the game - - not some clueless media shill or a Madden ‘23 video gamer.