NFL GDT: 2023 NFC Championship Game: (1) San Francisco 49ers vs (3) Detroit Lions

[Rob]

Not sure who is more upset this morning. Ravens or Lions fans?

 

[GKJ]

Your choice of words speaks volumes.

Acknowledging that he “nearly” went for it at halftime points to how indecisive Campbell actually way.

And the fact that he “thought better of it” and took the FG instead shows just how ludicrous the other two gambles were when Campbell didn’t actually think it through logically.

Well as I’ve said, I will always advocate for taking points to go up 3 possessions.

A few years ago, Bill O’Brien got crucified for kicking a field goal in Kansas City that put the Texans up 24 in a game they lost by 20. He said after the game he game planned for needing 50. Campbell wanted to get to 30 first.

There have been many times this year I’ve disagreed with them going for it but that is their DNA. You dance with who brought you, and their 4th down conversion rate is a big part of what that is, and has been since he got there.

 

[Donnie740]

Not sure who is more upset this morning. Ravens or Lions fans?

Has to be way more devastating for the Lions.

Ravens were never really in the game, Luons were in complete control until their blustering jackass HC decided to throw the season away with reckless gambles.

Ravens have won a couple championships in recent memory - - Lions haven’t even been there for 58 years and were so close.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

Ahh yes because 50 yard FG's are a guarantee as we have seen all playoffs right! No big misses from that distance ever.

 

[TakeTheBody]

I don't blame Dan Campbell. If you had that defense you better be going for it on fourth down often.

The Ravens I didn't really understand. Chiefs playing lots of DB's and you only hand it off to your RB's six times? Your offense runs the ball as well as anyone in football.

I know the Niners and Chiefs haven't met often in the Super bowl, but it feels like Biden vs Trump to me. zzzzzzzzz

 

[StreetHawk]

Damn that was a rough one. kick the damn field goal dan. totally gave back momentum to the 9ers. what a bad decision. smh. oh well it was a fun game and a great season. disappointing it ended on a coaches ego as the players played well.

You can give him a pass on the first one as there is plenty of time left but with 7:30 to go in the game you attempt the FG to tie the game. You simply can’t take the risk of being behind 2 scores in the final half of Q4. Again with your own timeouts, 2 min warning plus the 4th Q timing rules very difficult for a team to run out the clock for a walkoff score. Especially when SF all game was getting chunk plays. They scored using 4 minutes of the clock.

That’s what got Baltimore. Flowers fumbles extending the ball at the goal line down 10. Flowers had a first down at the one if he just protects the ball. Lamar on the next drive throws into triple coverage. They kick a FG on their final drive before KC runs out the clock.

Ravens needed a score on those 2 turnover ending drives. Would have then likely gone for it vs taking the FG if they were still down a TD.

 

[Donnie740]

A few years ago, Bill O’Brien got crucified for kicking a field goal in Kansas City that put the Texans up 24 in a game they lost by 20. He said after the game he game planned for needing 50. Campbell wanted to get to 30 first.

There have been many times this year I’ve disagreed with them going for it but that is their DNA. You dance with who brought you, and their 4th down conversion rate is a big part of what that is, and has been since he got there.

Bozo The O’Brien was crucified because he took the FG on 4th and 1 from the Chiefs 13yd line to make it 24-0 but then on the very next series decided to go for it on 4th and 4 from his own 32yd line when the score was 24-7.

Conservative when he’s in complete control of the game and then gambling when the opponent finally shows a glimmer of life - - that’s pretty much EXACTLY what Dan Campbell did yesterday.

If aggressive 4th down gambles are your DNA, then take the same approach in the 2ndQ as you do in the 3rdQ and 4thQ instead of flip flopping from conservative play calling to reckless play calling.

 

[StreetHawk]

If aggressive 4th down gambles are your DNA, then take the same approach in the 2ndQ as you do in the 3rdQ and 4thQ instead of flip flopping from conservative play calling to reckless play calling.

First gamble, you can chalk it up to their philosophy of being aggressive. OK. I can get that. But, from that point onto the next 3 series, Lions lost momentum. Failed pick by their DB, fumbled exchange, dropped pass by Reynolds on 3rd down. Game is then tied.
Just the math on the time remaining and how your Defence was playing, you need to get points and tie the game because if SF got a TD on the next drive, which they did, the game is over down 2 scores under 4 minutes.
If Detroit makes the FG there to tie it at 27. And then SF scores. I'm all for him going for 2 after getting the TD with a minute to go. Given how the game was going and that I'd trust the O vs the D at that point in time. But, have to give your team a chance to do that.

 

[Donnie740]

Ahh yes because 50 yard FG's are a guarantee as we have seen all playoffs right! No big misses from that distance ever.

Check your facts, my friend. Neither attempt yesterday would have been 50yds.



Incidentally, Badgley has a 77% success rate in his career on FGs between 40yd and 49yds. They trusted him enough to make a 54yd FG in the wild card game two weeks ago.

It’s bad enough to try and spin the numbers to try and justify Dan Campbell’s foolishness but don’t embarrass yourself by making up incorrect exaggerations.

 

[Rob]

Has to be way more devastating for the Lions.

Ravens were never really in the game, Luons were in complete control until their blustering jackass HC decided to throw the season away with reckless gambles.

Ravens have won a couple championships in recent memory - - Lions haven’t even been there for 58 years and were so close.

For Ravens fans the hurt may be more because everyone expected them to be in the Super Bowl this year. Also, if you looked at social media they were talking some serious trash towards the Chiefs all week.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

Check your facts, my friend. Neither attempt yesterday would have been 50yds.



Incidentally, Badgley has a 77% success rate in his career on FGs between 40yd and 49yds. They trusted him enough to make a 54yd FG in the wild card game two weeks ago.

It’s bad enough to try and spin the numbers to try and justify Dan Campbell’s foolishness but don’t embarrass yourself by making up incorrect exaggerations.

so 77%, not even close to 100 for 40-49. FG were 46 and 48 yards, so likely lower than 77%.

In the last two weeks we have misses from Moody, Carlson, Bass from this general yardage. Badgley is not a reliable kicker and has been kicked around the league for years because teams are always looking for someone better. Acting like it was a guaranteed 3 points is insane.

Only person embarrassing themselves is you in this thread.

EDIT: Even better, I found the numbers for your boy Badgley:

"He made a 54-yarder in the wild-card game against the Rams (indoors) but entered Sunday 13 of 24 in his career (including playoffs) from 45 to 50 yards, including 8 of 16 outdoors."

 

[Reality Check]

Not sure who is more upset this morning. Ravens or Lions fans?

Do we have option C for Other?

Because the majority of this thread aren't Lions fans and they are the ones who are stomping their feet.

Meanwhile, as an actual Lions fan, I'm attempting to calm them down

 

[Reality Check]

I will also add that Badgley was readded to the team this year with a couple of weeks to go in the regular season after they cut Riley Patterson. Who was doing the kicking for them most of the year.

He was also the guy who replaced Badgley prior to this season.

 

[Donnie740]

Even better, I found the numbers for your boy Badgley:

"He made a 54-yarder in the wild-card game against the Rams (indoors) but entered Sunday 13 of 24 in his career (including playoffs) from 45 to 50 yards, including 8 of 16 outdoors."

That’s still a higher probability of success than going for it on 4th and 2 or 4th and 3.

More importantly, the in-game situation clearly favoured taking the FG try.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

That’s still a higher probability of success than going for it on 4th and 2 or 4th and 3.

More importantly, the in-game situation clearly favoured taking the FG try.

Not so fast big fella:

"Before Sunday, the Lions had gone for it an NFL-high 23 times on fourth down with 2-3 yards to go over the last two seasons (including playoffs). They had converted 70 percent of the time (16 of 23), well above the 52 percent average for the rest of the league. That supports the idea that Detroit could have an edge in these situations."

So Detroit's identity has been trusting the offense and going for it on 4th down, they have a higher percentage on these tries than their kicker does from this length, and yet Dan Campbell apparently lost them the game with the crazy decision to go with what he had been doing, and what had been converting with a higher success rate.

Like disagree with the decision all you want, but at least try to make some logical points.

 

[StreetHawk]

At the end of the day, even with a 77% average, you then expect to make of the 2 FGs in the 40+ yard range that they passed up on.

I guess for the SB, I'd take the KC K over the SF K in a pressure K situation. Moody's missed a 40 something yarder in both PO games.

 

[Donnie740]

Not so fast big fella:

"Before Sunday, the Lions had gone for it an NFL-high 23 times on fourth down with 2-3 yards to go over the last two seasons (including playoffs). They had converted 70 percent of the time (16 of 23), well above the 52 percent average for the rest of the league. That supports the idea that Detroit could have an edge in these situations."

So Detroit's identity has been trusting the offense and going for it on 4th down, they have a higher percentage on these tries than their kicker does from this length, and yet Dan Campbell apparently lost them the game with the crazy decision to go with what he had been doing, and what had been converting with a higher success rate.

Like disagree with the decision all you want, but at least try to make some logical points.

As I’ve explained numerous times, that’s the problem with analytics - - you’re trying to apply the same probability from a Week 5 game at home against Carolina to the NFC Championship game on the road against SF.

Completely different situations.

 

[Quid Pro Clowe]

At the end of the day, even with a 77% average, you then expect to make of the 2 FGs in the 40+ yard range that they passed up on.

I guess for the SB, I'd take the KC K over the SF K in a pressure K situation. Moody's missed a 40 something yarder in both PO games.

I agree with taking Butker over Moody, but his 1st attempt in the divisional game was a block and not a miss.

I don’t know what the number say but I saw the game and how it went. SF was thrilled to get off the field giving up 0. If you take the 3 to make it 27-10 or even 27-17 then even more doubt creeps into the Niners minds about coming back.

 

[Donnie740]

I agree with taking Butker over Moody, but his 1st attempt in the divisional game was a block and not a miss.

Agree that Butker has been a solid kicker for several years. Far better than Joke Moody.

Regardless of who’s kicking for KC though, there’s ZERO possible chance of Andy Reid being as dumb as Dan Campbell was on 4th down yesterday.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

As I’ve explained numerous times, that’s the problem with analytics - - you’re trying to apply the same probability from a Week 5 game at home against Carolina to the NFC Championship game on the road against SF.

Completely different situations.

Right so there's even less of a chance of the kicker making the kick under pressure circumstances!

 

[Donnie740]

Right so there's even less of a chance of the kicker making the kick under pressure circumstances!

When you’ve dug yourself into a hole the best thing you can do is to stop digging it deeper, my friend.

Sometimes pro football coaches make horrifically bad decisions. That’s just the reality. And Dan Campbell made two of the absolute dumbest coaching decisions in pro football history during the same game.

Even if he just decided to punt on both 4th down attempts it’s impossible for the outcome to have been any worse than it was.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

When you’ve dug yourself into a hole the best thing you can do is to stop digging it deeper, my friend.

Sometimes pro football coaches make horrifically bad decisions. That’s just the reality. And Dan Campbell made two of the absolute dumbest coaching decisions in pro football history during the same game.

Even if he just decided to punt on both 4th down attempts it’s impossible for the outcome to have been any worse than it was.

Oh look you used hindsight to evaluate.

How dumb was it for KC to go for it on 4th down on the first drive of the game where they scored the TD? How dumb was it for Baltimore to go on 4th and 1 and 4th and 3 in their own territory and get it both times?

All you look at is whether they got it or not. I'm sure if Dan Campbell knew he was not going to get the 1st down like you do know he wouldn't have gone.

Your brain is incapable of separating the result from the process.

 

[SirClintonPortis]

Not so fast big fella:

"Before Sunday, the Lions had gone for it an NFL-high 23 times on fourth down with 2-3 yards to go over the last two seasons (including playoffs). They had converted 70 percent of the time (16 of 23), well above the 52 percent average for the rest of the league. That supports the idea that Detroit could have an edge in these situations."

So Detroit's identity has been trusting the offense and going for it on 4th down, they have a higher percentage on these tries than their kicker does from this length, and yet Dan Campbell apparently lost them the game with the crazy decision to go with what he had been doing, and what had been converting with a higher success rate.

Like disagree with the decision all you want, but at least try to make some logical points.

70% is not even 3/4 and slightly above 2/3. Ten repeat tries(which you don't get in the playoffs), you're failing three times. Guess what? They failed two times.

 

[Donnie740]

Oh look you used hindsight to evaluate.

How dumb was it for KC to go for it on 4th down on the first drive of the game where they scored the TD? How dumb was it for Baltimore to go on 4th and 1 and 4th and 3 in their own territory and get it both times?

All you look at is whether they got it or not. I'm sure if Dan Campbell knew he was not going to get the 1st down like you do know he wouldn't have gone.

Your brain is incapable of separating the result from the process.

Those who have no understanding of situational football will not comprehend this.

Neither KC nor Baltimore were in the position that Detroit was being up by 14 and in control of the game where they absolutely did not need a kill shot.

Nor were they down by 3 and within FG range midway through the 4thQ when they decided to go for it instead of getting the score tied.

But don’t just take my explanation of it - - listen to what all of the current and former players and coaches are saying about how ridiculous the calls were.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

70% is not even 3/4 and slightly above 2/3. Ten repeat tries(which you don't get in the playoffs), you're failing three times. Guess what? They failed two times.

Go on?

Did you see the post where Badgley is 13-24 from 45-50 yards?

There is risk in both situations.