NFL GDT: 2023 NFC Championship Game: (1) San Francisco 49ers vs (3) Detroit Lions

[Fish on The Sand]

Campbell trying to justify his first 4th down screw up by saying how “SF was trying to bleed out the clock”

FFS, that’s all the more reason to take the FG and go up by three scores. Then let the “bleed out the clock”

He's referring to the second one with that statement where kicking the FG would have resulted in near certain defeat.

The first one was the right play because conversation rate on a 2 yard play is about the same as a 45 yard FG but carries way more benefits.

 

[GoldenSeal]

I'll take a moment here and pay respect to the Lions for just making it that far. Nothing but respect.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

 

[Donnie740]

The first one was the right play because conversation rate on a 2 yard play is about the same as a 45 yard FG but carries way more benefits.

The problem with those “expected probabilities” is that they don’t take into account the situation of the game in terms of momentum and emotion.

SF defence had struggled badly and the Lions offence had been dominating up to that point. Stuffing the Lions on 4th down gave the SF defence a massive emotional boost and it was even more deflating for the Lions offence.

Look at how many botched plays Detroit had on offence after that failed conversion. And how the SF defence started swarming.

Anyone trying to justify the first gamble has absolutely no idea of how important momentum and emotion is in a football game.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

The problem with those “expected probabilities” is that they don’t take into account the situation of the game in terms of momentum and emotion.

SF defence had struggled badly and the Lions offence had been dominating up to that point. Stuffing the Lions on 4th down gave the SF defence a massive emotional boost and it was even more deflating for the Lions offence.

Look at how many botched plays Detroit had on offence after that failed conversion. And how the SF defence started swarming.

Anyone trying to justify the first gamble has absolutely no idea of how important momentum and emotion is in a football game.

This is total BS. They didn't botch those plays because of the miss. They botched them because they they didn't execute. They lost because the plays they didn't make, not because of superstition.

Even if you subscribe to that nonsense, the blame doesn't go on the decision, it goes to Reynolds for dropping the pass.

 

[EpochLink]

Campbell trying to justify his first 4th down screw up by saying how “SF was trying to bleed out the clock”

FFS, that’s all the more reason to take the FG and go up by three scores. Then let the “bleed out the clock”

f*** you Dan Campbell, nothing more than Matt Patricia with muscles and stank

 

[MMC]

 

[Troy McClure]

It's a lot easier to point to the coach and say his decisions lost the game.

 

[Donnie740]

This is total BS. They didn't botch those plays because of the miss. They botched them because they they didn't execute. They lost because the plays they didn't make, not because of superstition.

Even if you subscribe to that nonsense, the blame doesn't go on the decision, it goes to Reynolds for dropping the pass.

You’ve never played the game, have you?

Because if you had, you’d understand how free and easy it is to make plays when you’re rolling with momentum compared to the struggle of executing even the most basic of plays when everyone on both sides can feel the game - - and the season - - slipping away.

If you know, you know.

 

[StreetHawk]

I think you gain more momentum if you stop a 4th down attempt than if the opposition misses a FG.

In the end Detroit couldn’t execute to stop the momentum of SF. If their DB could have caught that throw it’s a massive moment shift with Detroit getting the ball back. But DB shows why he’s a DB and not a WR.

But after that, it was just simple things that Detroit could not execute. That was a hard pick to come down with falling back.
Gibbs and Goff, someone messed up on the exchange. Reynolds dropping a pass to convert a 3rd down.

 

[Donnie740]

I think you gain more momentum if you stop a 4th down attempt than if the opposition misses a FG.

Absolutely. It’s a HUGE momentum swing - - fires up the defence and deflates the offence.

You don’t really notice the momentum change in Madden ‘23 but you DEFINITELY notice it in an actual football game.

 

[LightningStorm]

Absolutely. It’s a HUGE momentum swing - - fires up the defence and deflates the offence.

You don’t really notice the momentum change in Madden ‘23 but you DEFINITELY notice it in an actual football game.

Yup. Analytics are a good compliment to coaching decisions, but this game was an example of when things can go wrong when you use them while disregarding the emotions/momentum of the game. A game played by humans will also have hot and cold streaks, another thing analytics doesn't factor in.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

You’ve never played the game, have you?

Because if you had, you’d understand how free and easy it is to make plays when you’re rolling with momentum compared to the struggle of executing even the most basic of plays when everyone on both sides can feel the game - - and the season - - slipping away.

If you know, you know.

Are you seriously making the argument that Josh Reynolds dropped the ball because he was so disgusted at the decision to go for it?

 

[Donnie740]

Yup. Analytics are a good compliment to coaching decisions, but this game was an example of when things can go wrong when you use them while disregarding the emotions/momentum of the game. A game played by humans will also have hot and cold streaks, another thing analytics doesn't factor in.

It’s ridiculous to proclaim the “probability” of converting a 4th and 2 on the road during the 3rdQ in the NFC championship against one of the better defenses in the league is the same as it is during the 1stQ of a Week 2 game at home against one of the weakest defenses in the league.

Analytics is designed for gimps to feel like they’re involved in football.

 

[tacogeoff]

Damn that was a rough one. kick the damn field goal dan. totally gave back momentum to the 9ers. what a bad decision. smh. oh well it was a fun game and a great season. disappointing it ended on a coaches ego as the players played well.

 

[Tuggy]

Lions really f***ed this game up. Such a chokejob.

 

[Donnie740]

disappointing it ended on a coaches ego as the players played well.

That’s exactly what it was - - Dan Campbell’s ego getting in the way of winning. Just like Pete Carroll’s ego costing the Seahawks a Super Bowl victory.

Campbell wanted to feed his rah rah swashbuckling personna by being aggressive and gambling on 4th down when it was clearly the wrong call.

Analytics will be used as an excuse to try and justify Campbell’s asinine decisions, but any player will tell you it was a dumb egotistical mistake. Just like players will rip Carroll for his stupid play call in the Super Bowl.

 

[GKJ]

That’s exactly what it was - - Dan Campbell’s ego getting in the way of winning. Just like Pete Carroll’s ego costing the Seahawks a Super Bowl victory.

Campbell wanted to feed his rah rah swashbuckling personna by being aggressive and gambling on 4th down when it was clearly the wrong call.

Analytics will be used as an excuse to try and justify Campbell’s asinine decisions, but any player will tell you it was a dumb egotistical mistake. Just like players will rip Carroll for his stupid play call in the Super Bowl.

The play call is not the same as its decision. The Lions died as they lived. They’re not this far without doing that.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Either no one here but Detroit fans have really paid attention to the Lions all year or they're pissed over losing a bet.

Skip Bayless would be proud of these hot takes.

Josh Allen and Buffalo only reached AFFCG once. The Lions should at least contend for the playoffs for the next few years, but it's not a given, certainly making it back to the final 4.

That's why this has got to really sting...they were up 24-7 in CG and blew it.

 

[Donnie740]

The play call is not the same as its decision. The Lions died as they lived. They’re not this far without doing that.

If that’s the case, why didn’t they go for it on 4th and goal from the 3yd line at the end of the first half?

The “success probability” would have been much higher because converting on 4th and 3 means a guaranteed touchdown whereas there was no such guarantee on either of the other 4th down gambles. And the likelihood of SF driving 97yds with 7 seconds to go before halftime is infinitesimal.

So where was that aggressive forward thinking analytical mindset before halftime?

 

[Karterthadon]

Josh Allen and Buffalo only reached AFFCG once. The Lions should at least contend for the playoffs for the next few years, but it's not a given, certainly making it back to the final 4.

That's why this has got to really sting...they were up 24-7 in CG and blew it.

They're losing Ben Johnson, this could potentially go south on them big time next year.

 

[Donnie740]

They're losing Ben Johnson, this could potentially go south on them big time next year.

Reminds me so much of the Falcons after their playoff choke job.

 

[Karterthadon]

Reminds me so much of the Falcons after their playoff choke job.

Or the Eagles this year

 

[GKJ]

If that’s the case, why didn’t they go for it on 4th and goal from the 3yd line at the end of the first half?

The “success probability” would have been much higher because converting on 4th and 3 means a guaranteed touchdown whereas there was no such guarantee on either of the other 4th down gambles. And the likelihood of SF driving 97yds with 7 seconds to go before halftime is infinitesimal.

So where was that aggressive forward thinking analytical mindset before halftime?

He nearly did, and thought better of it quite frankly, but a miss on 4th down didn’t put the 49ers on the 2 yard line.

 

[Donnie740]

He nearly did, and thought better of it quite frankly, but a miss on 4th down didn’t put the 49ers on the 2 yard line.

Your choice of words speaks volumes.

Acknowledging that he “nearly” went for it at halftime points to how indecisive Campbell actually way.

And the fact that he “thought better of it” and took the FG instead shows just how ludicrous the other two gambles were when Campbell didn’t actually think it through logically.