Prospect Info: 2021 NHL Draft Prospects - part II

[Captain3rdLine]

I also think it's interesting that when this assertion is trotted out, it's usually implied (as it was in this case) that you not only have to draft top defensemen, you must also do so with an early pick.

Let's look at the last eight Norris winners:

Roman Josi - 2nd round
Mark Giordano - undrafted
Victor Hedman - There's your lottery pick! 2nd overall
Brent Burns - 20th overall
Drew Doughty - Another lottery guy - 2nd overall
Erik Karlsson - 15th overall
Duncan Keith - 2nd round
PK Subban - 2nd round

That's extraordinary! The trophies that the forwards win are far more stacked with top picks. A few exceptions like Kucherov and Pasternak, but nothing like that. And this isn't any kind of anomoly. Playoff rosters are full of top pair defensemen taken outside the first round. Pelech, Parayko, Girard, Josi, Slavin, Pesce, Weeger, Dumoulin, it's remarkable how much value you can get outside the top 15 picks, which is where the elite forwards tend to go.

I think you can make a very strong case to prefer forwards in the early picks, and defensemen and goaltenders later.

Defencemen are harder to project and riskier picks. That’s part of why they’re harder to get but if you can hit on a pick and get a top defencemen it’s extremely valuable.

 

[Guttersniped]

I also think it's interesting that when this assertion is trotted out, it's usually implied (as it was in this case) that you not only have to draft top defensemen, you must also do so with an early pick.

Let's look at the last eight Norris winners:

Roman Josi - 2nd round
Mark Giordano - undrafted
Victor Hedman - There's your lottery pick! 2nd overall
Brent Burns - 20th overall
Drew Doughty - Another lottery guy - 2nd overall
Erik Karlsson - 15th overall
Duncan Keith - 2nd round
PK Subban - 2nd round

That's extraordinary! The trophies that the forwards win are far more stacked with top picks. A few exceptions like Kucherov and Pasternak, but nothing like that. And this isn't any kind of anomoly. Playoff rosters are full of top pair defensemen taken outside the first round. Pelech, Parayko, Girard, Josi, Slavin, Pesce, Weeger, Dumoulin, it's remarkable how much value you can get outside the top 15 picks, which is where the elite forwards tend to go.

I think you can make a very strong case to prefer forwards in the early picks, and defensemen and goaltenders later.

No one is saying they love drafting defensemen at the top of the every draft it just so happens that the more desirable players at the top of this draft are defensemen. (Particularly for us since the top forward is a true centerman.)

I do think you have to draft your own defensemen. And I do think elite forward talent/offensive producers are generally easier to identify as prospects. Both things can be true. Drafting defense is hard but necessary process. And you do generally draft them later. The general tier of elite talent is in the 1st round to somewhere in early/mid in the 2nd round.

And normally I’m wary about drafting defensemen with a very high pick. Except last season, I wanted Drysdale over any of the forwards that were left before Anaheim drafted. And Drysdale already looks amazing. Each draft is unique.

 

[Blackjack]

No one is saying they love drafting defensemen at the top of the every draft it just so happens that the more desirable players at the top of this draft are defensemen. (Particularly for us since the top forward is a true centerman.)

I do think you have to draft your own defensemen. And I do think elite forward talent/offensive producers are generally easier to identify as prospects. Both things can be true. Drafting defense is hard but necessary process. And you do generally draft them later. The general tier of elite talent is in the 1st round to somewhere in early/mid in the 2nd round.

And normally I’m wary about drafting defensemen with a very high pick. Except last season, I wanted Drysdale over any of the forwards that were left before Anaheim drafted. And Drysdale already looks amazing. Each draft is unique.

Totally agree, and I don't mean to imply that the bias towards forwards early in the draft needs to be pronounced. Probably should've taken McAvoy over McLeod! I guess when I read his post it just sounded like NJ should be willing to pay to move up and draft one of the big 3 d prospects because there is little hope of getting a top d outside of drafting one with an early pick. If that were true I think you could justify paying a substantial price to move up from (worst case scenario) 6 to 3 or 4 to guarantee one of them, something I wouldn't do.

Anyway, you made the point in another post that it's not really a relevant debate anyway since top 5 picks simply do not move at all anymore.

 

[Guttersniped]

Totally agree, and I don't mean to imply that the bias towards forwards early in the draft needs to be pronounced. Probably should've taken McAvoy over McLeod! I guess when I read his post it just sounded like NJ should be willing to pay to move up and draft one of the big 3 d prospects because there is little hope of getting a top d outside of drafting one with an early pick. If that were true I think you could justify paying a substantial price to move up from (worst case scenario) 6 to 3 or 4 to guarantee one of them, something I wouldn't do.

Anyway, you made the point in another post that it's not really a relevant debate anyway since top 5 picks simply do not move at all anymore.

I completely agree with you about trading up. People are perhaps understandably fearful we going to be shut out of the defensemen after the one-two punch before we drafted 7th last year but we don’t even know when we’re drafting.

There just hasn’t been a trade that high up in the draft since NYI and Toronto swapped 5th and 7th pick and Toronto used an early 2nd which we don’t have. We certainly aren’t trading into the 1st spot. The cost to move up to the 2nd spot would be at least our 1st, NYI 1st and NYI 2nd, assuming there was a team that would want to trade the pick. If you’re talking about the teams right ahead of us and not 2nd spot then it becomes a question of whether they would want defense too and teams tend to want defense. (Unless you talking about gross overpayment.)

1) Buffalo (1 1st, 2 2nd) Probably not. they could probably use the extra picks but if Adams can read the room he would see a fanbase that likely respond poorly to him getting cute here. He should just take the safe top choice.

2) Anaheim (no extra picks) Probably not. Murray hasn’t even made any draft day pick trades in a decade (well one 7th rounder swap in 2020) but they could use the extra picks. But that would let Seattle drink their milkshake so they may prefer to stay put. And this where not have our early 2nd kills people’s trading up dream. Unless you use the other 1st to move up two spots, which seems excessive to me.

3) Seattle (Who knows) Who knows. I don’t what they’ll have or need but this would be the easiest team to trade with.

I would add that teams like Detroit, Ottawa and LA wouldn’t likely trade the 2nd because they are in the quality vs quantity phase, they already have too many prospects kicking already. And Detroit doesn’t even need the extra picks. And Columbus has three 1sts already.

So any trade-up proposals have to wait until after the draft lottery because it requires realistic trade partners. If San Jose for example was in the 2nd spot, picking up an extra 1st and 2nd (and maybe more) might appeal to them since they only have one 1st and no 2nd. And Doug Wilson is a pick-trading kind of guy. (I’m not saying I’d do it necessarily but that seems like a workable trading partner.)

 

[Nubmer6]

There just hasn’t been a trade that high up in the draft since NYI and Toronto swapped 5th and 7th pick and Toronto used an early 2nd which we don’t have. We certainly aren’t trading into the 1st spot. The cost to move up to the 2nd spot would be at least our 1st, NYI 1st and NYI 2nd, assuming there was a team that would want to trade the pick. If you’re talking about the teams right ahead of us and not 2nd spot then it becomes a question of whether they would want defense too and teams tend to want defense. (Unless you talking about gross overpayment.)

A couple things work in our favor.

1. The top 7 or 8 seem to be very, very close. A team may be more willing to trade down than other drafts because they'll think they're getting an extra asset for an equivalent player they would have gotten a couple picks earlier.

2. We have some promising players in our pipeline that are expansion draft exempt. It's possible a team would consider one of them as good or better than an early 2nd rounder for payment to move up.

 

[Nico Hischier]

I feel like eklund is at the top of some teams draft lists. It wouldn’t surprise me to see eklund go before beniers or for both eklund and beniers go in the top 3

 

[aboriginal]

e3 confirmed

 

[Nubmer6]

I'm a little curious... I haven't seen much talk about Robertsson. Is he a consideration with the Islander's pick? Is he predicted to go much higher or lower? He seems like someone we could use - non-stop motor, good defensively, shoot-first power forward in the making.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I'm a little curious... I haven't seen much talk about Robertsson. Is he a consideration with the Islander's pick? Is he predicted to go much higher or lower? He seems like someone we could use - non-stop motor, good defensively, shoot-first power forward in the making.

He wouldn’t be a reach there and is definitely worth considering. I was really interested in him before the U18s for the same reasons that you stated but I wasn’t that impressed with him watching him for Sweden so I’ve cooled off on him a bit.

 

[Goptor]

I feel like eklund is at the top of some teams draft lists. It wouldn’t surprise me to see eklund go before beniers or for both eklund and beniers go in the top 3

He wont unless a team is dead set on expecting him as a center. We've had guys like Kotkaniemi and Hayton get taken early mainly because they were centers. Beniers will go first because he's a center, not necessarily because he is better.

 

[Offseason Champs]

Similarly, I feel we need to closely scrutinize why a defenseman who displayed such intelligence and poise for the US-NTDP was consistently questioned for his ability to process the game to justify his extremely conservative consensus rankings.

I can tell you why and it starts and ends with a certain zoom call. Baseless conjecture, maybe, but you can't help but think about it.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

 

[StevenToddIves]

I'm a little curious... I haven't seen much talk about Robertsson. Is he a consideration with the Islander's pick? Is he predicted to go much higher or lower? He seems like someone we could use - non-stop motor, good defensively, shoot-first power forward in the making.

If I'm taking a winger from Sweden with the Isles pick, it's without a doubt Isak Rosen. I felt he was as good as Lysell in the tournament, he was really flying out there. Rosen has a higher compete and IQ than Robertsson, he's one of the top few skating forwards in the entire draft, he's a high-end playmaker and puck-handler. Robertsson is bigger and a better shooter, and I like him a lot too, but it's hard to watch him and Rosen on the same team and think Robertsson is the superior prospect of the two.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I feel like eklund is at the top of some teams draft lists. It wouldn’t surprise me to see eklund go before beniers or for both eklund and beniers go in the top 3

I've watched a lot of both Beniers and Eklund and obviously love them both -- I've got Beniers ranked #1 overall and Eklund #4, both a bit higher than consensus. Out of the two, I think the Devils have a shot at Eklund -- Beniers won't last three picks. The fact is he can do everything Eklund can do, and he's bigger and faster, and according to most more likely to translate to the NHL as a center.

Both of these players feature extraordinary combinations of elite compete level and hockey IQ -- so there is very little risk in drafting either. They are both outstanding two-way players. I don't think either project as guys to lead the league in scoring, but I think they'll both bring top-line caliber offense. It's a win-win here. But I can't see a team passing on Beniers for Eklund, because Beniers' physical attributes simply grade out higher in otherwise similar packages.

 

[NJDevs26]

Just in case there was any doubt

 

[Blackjack]

Does Graeme Clarke have a sister Jack can marry so we can draft his brother in law?

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Just in case there was any doubt

I have a feeling Fitz is going to find a way to get him one way or another if the lotto balls don’t go our way.

 

[Blackjack]

Anybody quoting this guy's tweets should disclose that he's wrong like... all the time. Still...

 

[Guttersniped]

Ohhh, the plot thickens.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Ohhh, the plot thickens.

This will be very interesting to watch

 

[aboriginal]

Ohhh, the plot thickens.

girthquake

 

[Guttersniped]

Anybody quoting this guy's tweets should disclose that he's wrong like... all the time. Still...

He just does his model thing, he doesn’t analyze beyond that. It just one model so he’s not “wrong” per se, you just can’t base any overall judgement on teen prospects on one model that predicts future production.

It’s hilarious that he sort of phrases his tweets like you can while he’s pimping the shit out of his model. He’s prone to confident predictions about the future.

I’ve said repeatedly that Luke right now exactly matches with Quinn’s D-1 because of his ridiculously early birthday, and even more with Quinn because his October birthday. When he goes to Michigan next year, that’s the equivalent of Quinn’s draft year. That’s why he’s very likely at least two years away after the draft.

That’s also why Luke’s injury was so unfortunate, he really is much more of an unknown. Hopefully he still is on track to start skating again in late May,

 

[Guttersniped]

A couple things work in our favor.

1. The top 7 or 8 seem to be very, very close. A team may be more willing to trade down than other drafts because they'll think they're getting an extra asset for an equivalent player they would have gotten a couple picks earlier.

2. We have some promising players in our pipeline that are expansion draft exempt. It's possible a team would consider one of them as good or better than an early 2nd rounder for payment to move up.

The top 7 or 8 don’t seem close to me actually. It’s less, more like five at best so I don’t see teams being willing to drop more than one or two spots, if at all. I don’t see it happening, I don’t think other team would be interested in quantity over quality without major overpayment. Maybe the team would do it for Hughes, don’t see it for Clarke. (Because it would be slightly irrational and there would be emotional reasons for Luke.)

The expansion draft is before the NHL draft, so we would have to get the pick earlier.

 

[Goomba]

Defencemen are harder to project and riskier picks. That’s part of why they’re harder to get but if you can hit on a pick and get a top defencemen it’s extremely valuable.

I think the old adage of defenseman and goaltenders being 'harder to predict' than forwards is dwindling down to a bias of time investment vs actual difficulty in assessing the talents.

Goaltending scouting has improved so much in the last decade alone that Im now confident in taking a goaltender in the first round; hell if the Devils were in a position to, id take a goalie top-10.

 

[Goomba]

Gosh darn I really wanted Perfetti for Jack's wing; though Holtz' will surely do well as a 40-50g scorer