Broberg was one of the biggest and fastest D in the 2019 draft, and he certainly had the best combination of the two -- though Byram plays faster and Seider plays bigger. But Broberg had several questions with his decision-making which were not asked nearly enough, possibly because of things I keep saying about how "hockey IQ" -- elusive as it is to quantify -- is often replaced with pre-conceived notions which are based entirely on bulls--t I can't even begin to fathom.
The 2018 draft had a defenseman I loved and ranked #10 overall (his highest rating) in K'Andre Miller -- who combined an elite size/skating combo with high-end smarts and compete level. Miller had only been switched back from F to D by the US Development system two years prior, and had a few issues with gap control and positioning. Yet, many draft analysts were still asking questions to the degree of "can he ever grasp the nuances of playing defense?" and ranking him as low as the early second round.
One year later, you had Broberg who played defense his entire life and had the same strengths and weaknesses as Miller, but did not pass as precisely or display the same level of decision-making. But Broberg was Swedish -- which is often seen as a big plus point in the hockey IQ column, as opposed to Miller, who faced an entirely different set of criteria in that respect which I don't even have the patience to get into. Broberg routinely had top 10 rankings, and the general consensus was "when he figures it out he will be a superstar defenseman" as opposed to the prevailing attitude with Miller of "can he figure it out?"
Skip to the 2020 draft. The Devils were routinely slammed in the media for the #20 overall pick of LD Shakir Mukhamadullin -- a huge, high-upside player who looked out of his league in the KHL at times and certainly struggled with the nuances of the position despite amazing passing and shooting capabilities. Again, Russians are not seen by several people as being high IQ/high effort hockey players -- something which has been subtly or overtly questioned by North American hockey TV analysts from Mike Milbury to Don Cherry to Pierre McGuire.
Cut to the 2021 WJC tournament. K'Andre Miller has already established himself as a terrific young defenseman at the NHL level -- he just enjoyed a great rookie season for the Rangers. Shakir Mukhamadullin was the best defenseman for a strong Team Russia, probably one of the top 5 D in the WJC tournament. Broberg was a devastating disappointment for a Team Sweden which did not medal largely due to a blueline which was completely caved in by high-level opposing forwards. Team Finland's late goal which knocked Sweden out of the medal round was at least partially resulting from an inexplicable series of misplays by Broberg.
Now, my point is not that Broberg is a "bad player". I think he'll likely be a pretty good bottom-4 defenseman for Edmonton -- he covers a lot of ice and if you misplay him on the transition, he's gone in a step. My point is also not that Miller and Mukhamadullin will win multiple Norris Trophies -- right now I'd say Miller will at the very least be a long-time, two-way mid-pairing player, while Mukhamadullin still has a ton of development before he sees the NHL. My point is that you had three players with similar skill sets and questions regarding the elusive "hockey IQ" and, instead of doing more research, many prospect evaluators -- even high-profile ones -- resorted to relying on stereotypes which are so inaccurate as to border on the bizarre.
The stereotypes of defensemen often begin and end with size. If Cam York were 6'3-205 instead of 5'11-170 on his draft day and everything else were exactly the same, we can bet he would have been a top 10 pick. The same could be said of Ville Heinola. This year, we have Sean Behrens and Aleksi Heimosalmi, either of whom would doubtlessly be fighting for the top 15 if they were even 6'1-185.
Now, certainly size is beneficial to a defenseman. Part of the reason why a team wants a 6'6' Owen Power is because, with his excellent 4-way mobility, he covers so much ice simply by being on it that it's frustrating for an opposing offense to find passing and shooting lanes. And this is not even taking into account that it's nearly impossible to beat Power in a physical battle for pucks along the boards or in the crease.
So, we can bring all of these traditional arguments about defensemen and apply them to 2021. For instance, how do you rank a Corson Ceulemans against an Aleksi Heimosalmi at RD? Ceulemans absolutely destroys Heimosalmi in every physical category -- he's much bigger, faster, more physical, skates faster, shoots harder, you name it. But Heimosalmi's finest characteristics are more subtle -- he has an elite IQ and is a tremendous passer, his awareness plays up his very strong puck-handling and his decision making is outstanding. If I'm the Devils drafting at #21 and looking for a RD, I'd be very happy right now with either of these players. But if I'm the Devils drafting at #7 and Clarke is gone and I reach for one of them, I'm very unhappy -- there are just too many question marks with either player, and I vehemently do not believe in drafting a player with multiple "IFs" in the top 10.
Brandt Clarke is my top ranked RD for the entire 2021 draft, I have him at #2 overall. But he is not even a top 2 D in terms of athletic attributes at RD -- that would be Ceulemans and Scott Morrow -- a pair of very big, very fast kids with great shots. But the fact is that drafting the "bigger and faster player" over the "player who is better at hockey" has been the most oft-repeated mistake in the history of the NHL Draft. We saw it with Broberg in 2019, we saw it in 2018 with Filip Johansson over Rasmus Sandin, we saw it in 2017 with Lias Andersson at #7 overall, we saw it in 2016 with Jesse Puljujarvi over Matt Tkachuk -- we can go to literally every draft and see examples of how this philosophy failed, and we can just go ahead and call it "The Hugh Jessiman Rule".
It's a long post and I'll end it here, but I like my draft philosophy to be public knowledge more than trade secret, and I really analyze these things to an almost ridiculous degree.
