Prospect Info: 2021 Mock Draft 1.0, Post-Palmieri Trade

[Puckclektr]

Ya well he’s not eligible until 2023. I have no clue how he’s been doing and it’s a long ways away but I gotta think he’s a top 5 guy for that draft right now if he’s still doing well.

Oh. A year younger than everyone “and” a late birthday.

 

[Ryaduesu]

So it seems like picking anywhere in the top-8 ensures us a good prospect?

I saw a list I liked and had this order

Power
Hughes
Beniers
Clarke
Eklund
Guenther
Edvinsson
Johnson

Im afraid Buffalo Anaheim Seattle Detroit and possibly Columbus will all be under us, pre lottery

or do we not want a forward?

 

[Figgie]

Im afraid Buffalo Anaheim Seattle Detroit and possibly Columbus will all be under us, pre lottery

Detroit and Columbus playing 2 times against each other so they will share at least 4 points so it is very unlikely that we would go past both of them. It is more likely that Vancouver or Ottawa would be behind us. If we win 1 game so we will likely be 4th worst behind Buffalo, Anaheim and Seattle. If we win 2 games so there is possibility that we still would be 4th worst or with bad luck we could get up many spots in standings.

or do we not want a forward?

We want D. One of Hughes, Clarke or Power!

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

Following USA U18 game yesterday. Obviously not in the first round, but any thoughts on another Jack Hughes?

 

[thethinglonger]

No doubt my preference is to get one of the defensemen in the top tier, but I certainly wouldn't be disappointed if Guenther was the pick. I know how difficult it is to get high-ceiling defensive prospects but Guenther is also an incredible talent. (I still see Kent Johnson as having the highest upside in the draft but understand why a team might be a bit gun-shy on spending a high, high pick on him)

 

[Guttersniped]

Hell has anyone gone back and looked at the 08 draft? There are literally FIVE #1 defensemen in that draft AND f***ing Stamkos lol.

It’s got to be the greatest defensive draft ever.

I actually did discuss it in the history of hockey forum when someone was doing a list of top five defensemen by decade. There was a lull in the late 90’s drafts before their was an explosion of high end talent. (I made this list then so I might as well get more use out of it.)

Make it top 10 defenseman by decade and 2000-2010 beats the crap out of 1990-2000.

2009 Hedman
2008 Doughty, Pietrangelo, Carlson, Karlsson, Josi
2007 Subban
2005 Letang
2003 Suter, Burns, Weber
2002 Keith
1996 Chara
1993 Pronger
1992 Gonchar
1991 Niedermayer
1990 Zubov
1989 Lindstrom
1988 Blake

 

[nugg]

I agree that Edvinsson's "consensus" position would be in the top ten. But his consensus position would also be below players you just stated you do not consider to be #1 forwards like Eklund, Beniers and Johnson.

Recently, I did my own research into the consensus. I took the rankings of several major scouting bureaus and a few of my favorite draft analysts. The resources I used were TSN (McKenzie), hockeyprospect.com, McKeens, The Painted Lines, FC Hockey, Sportsnet, Pronman, Wheeler (both The Athletic), Cam Robinson (Dobber Prospects) and myself -- for a total of 10 rankings, to make the math easy.

Doing the math, this is an accurate consensus ranking for top players at every position:

C
Beniers: 3.0 (1st- McKeens, Ives)
Lucius: 10.5

RW
Guenther: 5.8 (1st - Pronman)
Lysell: 11.1

LW
Eklund: 5.9 (1st - Robinson)
Johnson 6.8

RD
Clarke: 5.7
Ceulemans: 22.8

LD
Powers: 2.7 (1st - TSN, HP, TPL, SN, Wheeler)
Hughes: 4.1 (1st - FC)
Edvinsson: 8.1

So, we can say that the consensus sees Edvinsson as just shy of the likely top 7 prospects, with their total of #1 overall rankings in parenthesis --
1 Power (5)
2 Beniers (2)
3 Hughes (1)
4 Clarke
5 Guenther (1)
6 Eklund (1)
7 Johnson
8 Edvinsson

Essentially, this gives us a pretty good idea about how the top of the the 2021 draft is going to go. I think we can pretty much guarantee that Power is gone in the top 3 and Beniers in the top 3 or 4. There's a little more leeway for Johnson or Edvinsson, who could both potentially be top 3 picks but also both potentially fall out of the top 10 altogether. Those middle guys (Hughes, Clarke, Guenther, Eklund) I feel we can guarantee as top 9 picks, and any of them could also surprise at #1 or #2 overall -- depending of course on who is drafting.

Personally, I like Edvinsson and Johnson a lot, but I'm not reaching for either of them at #4 or #5 because, quite simply, there will be better prospects available -- both in my opinion and the consensus opinion. Even if all three of the top D were gone (Power, Hughes, Clarke) and the Devils were drafting 4th, why would I reach for Johnson or Edvinsson over Beniers or Guenther? Sure, they are at positions the Devils need more, but I'd be taking a greater risk (Johnson) or passing on superior upside (Edvinsson) at a very high draft slot.

I'd say in this scenario, the answer would be to draft Beniers, and then use the Islanders pick (likely #20-#26 range) to take a player of greater positional value. There could be some highly regarded players there at the Devils positions of need, D (Ceulemans, Svozil, maybe even Lambos) and LW (Chibrikov, Sillinger, Othmann, Robertsson, Pastujov, Olausson, Rosen, L'Heureux).

If Pinelli is still there with the Islanders pick... I don't care that he's a center. There's no such thing as too many centers IMO.

 

[Figgie]

Following USA U18 game yesterday. Obviously not in the first round, but any thoughts on another Jack Hughes?

He is available in 2022 draft. Wheeler had him as his 2022 draft rank "top five contender" so he is probably going to be 1 round pick.

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

Delete

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

My mistake. Didn't realize Hughes has a November birthday and isn't eligible until 2022.