Prospect Info: 2021 Mock Draft 1.0, Post-Palmieri Trade

[StevenToddIves]

2021 Post-Palmieri Trade Mock Draft
The 2021 draft year is certainly unique. There is a great deal of “organic” confusion with no clear-cut #1 overall pick, as is the case in most drafts. As a matter of fact, it is so razor-close in my entire top 7 that any one of those players could conceivably wind up #1 on my final rankings.

This, however, is not a ranking, but rather a (very, very) early idea of how the 2021 draft might go, based on organizational need/tendency and consensus rankings. The Devils addition of the Islanders’ first round pick inspired me to pump this out today, So, let’s go…

1. Buffalo: LD Owen Power, University of Michigan NCAA the Sabres need everything, but fortunately Power offers everything — a huge, mobile D with tremendous hockey sense and a fully stocked offensive skill set
2. Ottawa: C Matt Beniers, University of Michigan NCAA with a top three prospect pool in the NHL, Ottawa is stocked everywhere but they lack a top-line center candidate. Beniers is lightning-fast and the best two-way forward in the draft, abetted by an almost super-natural compete level.
3. Seattle: LD Luke Hughes, US-NTDP the Kraken would be smart to build either from the blueline out or with a center. Hughes is the best skater in the draft and offers tremendous offensive upside from the blueline.
4. Anaheim: LD Simon Edvinsson, Frolunda SHL the Ducks are desperate at LD and love big bodies on D; Edvinsson is 6’4 and can absolutely fly
5. Detroit: LW/C Kent Johnson, University of Michigan NCAA Steve Yzerman loves high-IQ and high upside in his draft picks; Johnson is a magician with the puck and may possess the greatest pure offensive upside of any player in the 2021 class.
6. New Jersey Devils: RD Brandt Clarke, HC Nova Zamky Slovakia the Devils #1 need is a top-pairing RD. Of all the 2021 D, Clarke has the most elite puck-skills and compares favorably to a similar-aged Erik Karlsson. He’s an electrifying offensive force from the blueline who has greatly improved on his own side of the puck. He’s also the brother of Devils prospect Graeme Clarke. If Clarke was taken by #6 — though his likely draft position is in this neighborhood — I would expect the Devils to opt for one of the other “big 3” D — Power or Hughes. If all 3 of these huge D talents were gone, the NJ would likely lean towards a top LW candidate like Johnson or Eklund.
7. Calgary: RW/LW Dylan Guenther, Edmonton WHL Calgary might be going back into re-build mode with Giordano in his twilight and Gaudreau reportedly on the trade block. Guenther is a ridiculously talented and complete winger who has been likened to a right-shooting Kyle Connor.
8. Columbus: LW/C William Eklund, Djurgardens SHL after trading a litany of recent high draft picks, the Blue Jackets have needs everywhere. Eklund features an extraordinary hockey IQ backed with high-end skills — he’s a can’t miss, versatile forward and a coach’s dream.
9. Vancouver: LD Carson Lambos, Winnipeg WHL terrific drafting over several seasons has stocked the Canucks with a litany of talented forward prospects, but they lack a top-pairing-type D. Lambos has a fully stocked tool-kit: size, speed, skill, you name it.
10. Los Angeles: G Jesper Wallstedt, Lulea SHL with the top prospect pool in the entire NHL, the Kings can afford to break convention with a goaltender in the top 10. Wallstedt is as highly regarded as any netminding prospect in the past decade.
11. Dallas: RW/LW Fabian Lysell, Lulea SHL with Seguin, Benn and Pavelski aging, the Stars need to develop some high-end talent at F. Lysell is an electrifying skater with dynamic offensive upside which might only trail Kent Johnson for tops in the 2021 class among forwards.
12. San Jose: LW/C Cole Sillinger, Medicine Hat WHL the Sharks enjoyed an outstanding draft in 2020: Wiesblatt was a terrific pick at the end of the 1st round while Bordeleau, Robins, Gushchin, Coe and Raska all look like later-round steals. Sillinger is incredibly skilled and would certainly be a top 10 pick were he a bit faster on his skates.
13. Chicago: C Chaz Lucius US-NTDP with a future of Kirby Dach and Lucius up the middle, the Blackhawks will be prepared for the twilight of Jonathan Toews’ spectacular NHL career. Lucius could be the top pure goal-scorer in the 2021 class, and he adds to this a greatly under-rated all-around game.
14. St. Louis: C Aatu Raty, Karpat FIN losing Alex Pietrangelo has clearly hurt the Blues more than they anticipated and they have needs all over the place. Raty is a big-bodied, smooth-skating, two-way center with very good shooting and passing skills — nothing not to like here.
15. Philadelphia: RD Corson Ceulemans, Brooks AJHL a disappointing 2020-21 campaign has exposed the Flyers’ blueline outside of a bluechip LD combo of Provorov and Sanheim. Ceulemans is big and can fly and would immediately become the highest-upside right-shot defender in the Philadelphia organization.
16. NY Rangers: C Fyodor Svechkov, Lada Togliatti VHL the Rangers have a terrific future with young talent at every position — except they sorely lack a top 6 C prospect. Svechkov is one of the most under-rated players in the 2021 class — he’s the second best two-way F after Beniers and adds high-end passing ability and sneaky offensive upside.
17. Nashville: C Francesco Pinelli, HDD Jesenice AlpsHL the Predators are aging up the middle, which stands as their foremost need in the 2021 draft. Pinelli might be the steal of the draft — he’s a high-end talent with top-6 NHL C upside, but his ability to rise up the rankings has been severely inhibited by the pandemic-related stoppage to the OHL season.
18. Arizona: FORFEIT ex-GM John Chayka cements his place as one of the worst executives in NHL history with the sheer buffoonery which led to the forfeiture of this greatly needed first-round pick.
19. Montreal: C Zachary Bolduc, Rimouski QMJHL the recent move of Kotkaniemi to the LW might have the Habs on the lookout for a second-line center behind Suzuki for the foreseeable future; Bolduc is an excellent two-way prospect who is extremely adept in the offensive zone
20. Edmonton: LW Zachary L’Heureux, Halifax QMJHL feisty, power LW who is a brilliant finisher — perfect for McJesus’ left wing!
21. Winnipeg: LD Stanislav Svozil, HC Kometa CZECH Winnipeg needs young D and has an outstanding scouting team; Svozil is the most under-rated D in the 2021 class — elite hockey IQ and passing combined with extreme savvy and calm with the puck.
22. Boston: LW/C Mason McTavish, EHC Olten SWISS the Bruins love their power forwards and McTavish is an old-school beast with high-end finishing ability — this is a kid who can absolutely rocket the puck
23. Minnesota (via Pittsburgh): RW/LW Matthew Coronato, Chicago USHL the Wild have three of the top 20 prospects in the NHL in Cs Rossi and Khusnutdinov and LW Boldy, and can strengthen RW and D with two picks in the 2021 first round. Coronato is a scoring machine who can pump in offense from either wing.
24. Minnesota: RD Scott Morrow, Shattuck St. Mary’s USHS with a pair of first rounders and some top prospect talent, the Wild can afford to take a gamble on the humongous upside of Morrow — a big, fast and high-skilled puck-rusher with a lot to work on in terms of puck protection.
25. Vegas: LD Vladislav Lukashevich, Loko Yaroslavl MHL the Knights have drafted extremely well in their brief NHL existence, but they could benefit from more depth on the blueline for the prospect pool. The only thing keeping the exceptionally smart, fast and smooth Lukashevich from being the most underrated D in the 2021 class is that Svozil is also in the 2021 class.
26. New Jersey Devils (via Islanders): LW Brennan Othmann, EHC Olten SWISS if the Devils go D at #6, you can bet they will go for a scoring LW at #26 — and LW is fortunately the deepest position in the 2021 draft class. If the Devils were to take a forward at #6, this pick would likely change to a D. But the fact is that the Devils desperately need scoring LWs for Hughes and Hischier. Othmann would be the best available in this scenario — he features a tremendous shot with a ridiculously quick release, his feature tool in a tremendous 200-foot game played with high compete and intelligence.
27. Tampa Bay: C Matthew Samoskevich, Chicago USHL the Lightning draft extremely well and love the high-IQ line drivers — this description defines the tremendously exciting and under-valued Samoskevich to a T
28. Florida: LD Daniil Chayka, Krasnaya Moskva MHL the Panthers have a nice group of forwards at both the NHL and prospect levels, but they need to bolster the future of the blueline. Chayka is an extremely toolsy but raw rearguard who some think will go even higher in the 2021 draft.
29. Washington: LW/RW Simon Robertsson, Skelleftea SHL the Caps love big wingers and finishers, Robertsson fills both categories — as his coach said: “he shoots as hard as a horse kicks”.
30. Toronto: LW Oskar Olausson, HV71 SHL often miscategorized as a “defensive winger”, Olausson is actually a big & fast talent who possesses great offensive upside; he’s a kid who can go as early as the teens.
31. Colorado: LW Isak Rosen, Leksands SHL no NHL front office values speed as much as the Avs, and Rosen is in the conversation for fastest forward in the 2021 draft — he’s also a tenacious little two-way player with big-time offensive skill. Rosen is a tremendous prospect to me who has also been hurt by the pandemic — he is playing a bit over his head in the Swedish men’s league, but this is clearly a dynamic player with top-line upside.
32. Carolina: LW/RW Nikita Chibrikov, SKA St. Petersburg KHL the Hurricanes are another team with an outstanding recent draft record, and the high-upside and multi-dimensional Chibrikov would be a terrific get this deep into the first round.

Click to read more...

 

[Blackjack]

Arizona: FORFEIT ex-GM John Chayka cements his place as one of the worst executives in NHL history with the sheer buffoonery which led to the forfeiture of this greatly needed first-round pick.

If he was still there he'd have drones hovering over OHLers's backyard rinks

 

[StevenToddIves]

If he was still there he'd have drones hovering over OHLers's backyard rinks

Don't say that out loud, Chayka may have your apartment bugged.

 

[TheDuke93]

Steven thanks for all the work you do man, greatly appreciate the insight not only into prospects but also into other orgs as well.

 

[Guttersniped]

Excellent work as always, this mock doesn’t have us drafting Guenther and Morrow like it will totally happen at the real draft but other that I don’t have any problems with it.

 

[Unknown Caller]

Pray for Pastujov.

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

@StevenToddIves Any chance Wallstedt can fall to the Islanders pick that Devils owns? Or is he a bonafide top 15 pick.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Excellent work as always, this mock doesn’t have us drafting Guenther and Morrow like it will totally happen at the real draft but other that I don’t have any problems with it.

It's extremely tough to see the Devils passing on Brandt Clarke if he's available with the Devils first pick. He'd immediately become the most talented offensive defenseman the Devils have had since Niedermeyer, and probably the RD with the highest upside in franchise history (sorry, I love Rafalski too). He's also the brother of very impressive Devils' RW prospect Graeme Clarke.

I'm a huge fan of Dylan Guenther, but right-shooting forwards are not an area of particular need for the Devils, and the top 7 picks are so close talent wise it's likely to come down to "what type of player your team wants the most" as much as "who is the best available player?"

Scott Morrow is a very intriguing offense-centric RD with tremendous physical tools, as is Corson Ceulemans. Either one of them will surely interest NJ with the Islanders' pick, whether or not they get a RD with their own, earlier pick. But it's important to keep in mind that both of these kids are high-risk, as well as high-reward. They create as many questions as they answer, which is usually something you're fine with in the 2nd or 3rd round, but not so much in the 1st.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Pray for Pastujov.

Pastujov is, without a doubt, a very high-end offensive talent. But he's also a LW -- the deepest position in the 2021 draft -- and has some kinks in his game which could see him go as high as the teens or -- as I'm predicting here -- as low as the early 2nd round. Given my options for the Devils at the 26th overall pick (according to my own scenario), I felt the Devils needed a finisher like Othmann more than a pass-first LW like Pastujov, and I also believe that Othmann comes with similar potential reward to Pastujov with far lower risk. To be honest, I considered Robertsson and Olausson more than Pastujov, as well.

 

[StevenToddIves]

@StevenToddIves Any chance Wallstedt can fall to the Islanders pick that Devils owns? Or is he a bonafide top 15 pick.

No.

The short-lived idea that a goalie should not be taken in the top 20 picks has pretty much gone by the wayside with the past two drafts (Knight 2019, Askarov 2020). Wallstedt is regarded in the same tier as those two. I feel (of course, if this draft order remained) Wallstedt could go as high as #7 (Calgary) and no lower than #12/#13 (San Jose and Chicago would both have great interest).

 

[Emperoreddy]

If the Devils move into the top 2, do they still take Clarke or go for the LD ranked higher?

 

[Darkauron]

If the Devils move into the top 2, do they still take Clarke or go for the LD ranked higher?

You go for the higher ranked LD for sure.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

If we end up with the number 6-8 pick, what’s the most you’d give up to move up to take Hughes?

 

[StevenToddIves]

If the Devils move into the top 2, do they still take Clarke or go for the LD ranked higher?

Haha, ranked higher by whom? I've seen Power, Hughes and Clarke all ranked at #1 overall by really good people. If I can impress one thing to all of you about the 2021 draft is that it's very very tight between the top 7 players -- Beniers, Clarke, Eklund, Guenther, Hughes, Johnson & Power.

If there was a consensus #1 overall, I'd say it's Power. And he'd be a great pick for the Devils in the top 2. But again, it's really tight and if the Devils picked #2 with all of the "Big 3 D" still on the board, I don't think it would raise a single eyebrow if they took Clarke.

I can't speak for the Devils front office with any certainty, but I can certainly tell you this: if I were a Devils scout and we had the #1 overall pick, I would be jockeying for Brandt Clarke. Though I would not be dismayed if I lost the argument in favor of a Power or Hughes, my opinion would be that Brandt Clarke is the best pick in the entire 2021 draft for the future of the Devils organization.

 

[StevenToddIves]

If we end up with the number 6-8 pick, what’s the most you’d give up to move up to take Hughes?

Personally, I would not. The Devils have huge needs at RD and LW, and would greatly benefit from any potential top-4 D, either RD or LD. LW is the deepest position in the class of 2021, so the best case scenario would be a D at #7 (as it stands) and a LW later on with the Islanders pick. With two picks in the first round -- even if the "Big 3 D" of Clarke/Hughes/Power are gone, the Devils are more likely to be staring at a potential first-line LW like Johnson or Eklund or Guenther (right shot but plays LW), and then they can use their Isles pick on the blueline.

To me, it's a win-win either way. If the Devils get hot and their own pick falls to the #9-#12 range, we can revisit this hypothetical.

 

[Darkauron]

Yeah this is not the draft to trade up I feel. Only unless it is an offer we cant refuse

 

[StevenToddIves]

Yeah this is not the draft to trade up I feel. Only unless it is an offer we cant refuse

Absolutely.

In my -- I have to toot my own horn and say entirely realistic -- mock draft scenario above, I have the Devils getting a guy at #6 they would certainly strongly consider if they had the #1 overall pick. If Clarke goes #3? Well, that means Hughes might fall to #6. If Detroit snatched up Hughes? Well, then maybe Johnson is the Devils pick, becoming the most talented winger in the organization.

What I'm saying -- and clearly you're saying -- is this is not a draft to trade up, certainly not if you're picking anywhere in the top 6 or 7.

 

[My3Sons]

It's extremely tough to see the Devils passing on Brandt Clarke if he's available with the Devils first pick. He'd immediately become the most talented offensive defenseman the Devils have had since Niedermeyer, and probably the RD with the highest upside in franchise history (sorry, I love Rafalski too). He's also the brother of very impressive Devils' RW prospect Graeme Clarke.

I'm a huge fan of Dylan Guenther, but right-shooting forwards are not an area of particular need for the Devils, and the top 7 picks are so close talent wise it's likely to come down to "what type of player your team wants the most" as much as "who is the best available player?"

Scott Morrow is a very intriguing offense-centric RD with tremendous physical tools, as is Corson Ceulemans. Either one of them will surely interest NJ with the Islanders' pick, whether or not they get a RD with their own, earlier pick. But it's important to keep in mind that both of these kids are high-risk, as well as high-reward. They create as many questions as they answer, which is usually something you're fine with in the 2nd or 3rd round, but not so much in the 1st.

Is Clarke that much better than Smith offensively? To my eyes Smith is everything you said he’d be when scouting that draft. Really smart. Great touch with the puck and passing. Great at keep ins and a tricky shot. He could use half a step of acceleration but he’s close to a top pair guy at times.

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

Scott Morrow is a very intriguing offense-centric RD with tremendous physical tools, as is Corson Ceulemans. Either one of them will surely interest NJ with the Islanders' pick, whether or not they get a RD with their own, earlier pick. But it's important to keep in mind that both of these kids are high-risk, as well as high-reward. They create as many questions as they answer, which is usually something you're fine with in the 2nd or 3rd round, but not so much in the 1st.

We definitely need some offensive defenseman in our system and prospect pool. I think we are fine for shut down D guys but apart from Walsh and maybe Muk (I dont consider him as an offense dman, more of a two way guy), we are lacking in this area.

 

[My3Sons]

We definitely need some offensive defenseman in our system and prospect pool. I think we are fine for shut down D guys but apart from Walsh and maybe Muk (I dont consider him as an offense dman, more of a two way guy), we are lacking in this area.

Preferably on the right side to pair with the big physical lefties

 

[TheDuke93]

Is Clarke that much better than Smith offensively? To my eyes Smith is everything you said he’d be when scouting that draft. Really smart. Great touch with the puck and passing. Great at keep ins and a tricky shot. He could use half a step of acceleration but he’s close to a top pair guy at times.

Smith's physical tools are objectively limited compared to Clarke's. If Smith was more "athletic" he would have been drafted way higher, even though he probably should have been regardless. The kid's IQ and vision is so damn good it mask the fact that his shot isn't that great and his skating is only good.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Smith's physical tools are objectively limited compared to Clarke's. If Smith was more "athletic" he would have been drafted way higher, even though he probably should have been regardless. The kid's IQ and vision is so damn good it mask the fact that his shot isn't that great and his skating is only good.

I actually think Smith's shot is decent for the sole reason being that it's really accurate. He isn't going beat a lot of goalies clean with it, but it's good for both deflections and rebounds.

Beats a dude with a cannon who constantly hits glass.

 

[OmNomNom]

if we win the lotto... crazy thought, but do we trade down?

 

[TheDuke93]

I actually think Smith's shot is decent for the sole reason being that it's really accurate. He isn't going beat a lot of goalies clean with it, but it's good for both deflections and rebounds.

Beats a dude with a cannon who constantly hits glass.

It's not terrible, but I also think that ties more into his IQ and knowing when he can get it off. He doesn't have the power to beat goalies from deep and his onetimer is more or less a rebound tool.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

I can't speak for the Devils front office with any certainty, but I can certainly tell you this: if I were a Devils scout and we had the #1 overall pick, I would be jockeying for Brandt Clarke.

I'm glad we have the same thoughts. My go to is Clarke.